Sony's NeoGeo Pocket's (PSP2/Vita) business/non technical ramifications talk

[Prophecy2k]

Programming to the metal is pretty much irrelevent when the graphics output from iPhone6 will most likely be indistinguishable from the NGP...and since NGP uses the same architecture as iPhone porting instead of down to the metal coding is more likely.

I think you may be assuming that the iPhone 6 HW will even see games developed with the same quality of assets and content on iPhone 6 as on NGP. There's a fundamental point to be made that not very many devs will be keen to bust $'s on hi fidelity game assets that push the iOS HW when margin on the games sold is so low, especially on a market so saturated (by the time the iPhone 6 releases it'll be even worse).

I mean look now, we have what, 2-3 games on iPhone 4 & iPad that even use the full capability on the HW. NGP and 3DS are a different story because the sale price per game can support the investment in hi quality art assets for those games.

Edit:
If anything we'll see more ports of NGP games ported to iOS than the other way around (when talking about the top end games). The majority of stuff on iPhone 6 will be the same stuff we're seeing on iOS now with low budget cartoony graphics games that aren't even close to testing the HW.

 

[RudeCurve]

Edit:
If anything we'll see more ports of NGP games ported to iOS than the other way around (when talking about the top end games). The majority of stuff on iPhone 6 will be the same stuff we're seeing on iOS now with low budget cartoony graphics games that aren't even close to testing the HW.

That's exactly my point. Developers will look at the install base of ARM+SGX portables and not code to the metal so it'll be easier for porting.

 

[Arwin]

That's exactly my point. Developers will look at the install base of ARM+SGX portables and not code to the metal so it'll be easier for porting.

It's far more complicated than that, when the NGP itself already receives ports from consoles, share code-base with them (apparently greatly facilitated by Sony), etc. It's going to be interesting ...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I dare say any developer wanting a title that'll run on mobile devices will pick a multiplatform environment like UE or PSSG.

 

[Nesh]

Have we got any hint on the pricing yet?

 

[patsu]

I dare say any developer wanting a title that'll run on mobile devices will pick a multiplatform environment like UE or PSSG.

PhyreEngine 3.0 !

 

[Arwin]

Have we got any hint on the pricing yet?

Hints are that the base model is somewhere in the $299-349 range, but this far out from release nothing is set in stone I'm sure, as the component costs are no doubt not at all nailed down.

 

[patsu]

Rumor: NGP to hit Europe this year?
http://www.mcvuk.com/news/43422/NGP...MCV:+games+industry+news)&utm_content=Twitter

Forget what you've heard about Japan getting it first – third party licensees insist that NGP will arrive in Europe this year.

Sources have told MCV that development deadlines have been set to ensure key Western releases are finished before the end of the summer for deployment in the autumn.

...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

PhyreEngine 3.0 !

Does PhyreEngine 3.0 extend to mobiles. If so, what's the point of PSS?

 

[patsu]

PhyreEngine 3.0 supports NGP. I believe PSSG was renamed to PhyreEngine.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sorry, I meant PSS (PlayStation Suite) and even though PSS while typing, but a G appeared on the end!

 

[Bigduo209]

Hints are that the base model is somewhere in the $299-349 range, but this far out from release nothing is set in stone I'm sure, as the component costs are no doubt not at all nailed down.

If the base model starts at $249-299 range then Sony will be fine. Any higher and Sony could push the product out of average consumers' minds, by the time there's a price cut for NGP people will have already moved on to the 3DS and the iPod Touch for mobile gaming.

 

[patsu]

Sorry, I meant PSS (PlayStation Suite) and even though PSS while typing, but a G appeared on the end!

I know iPad and iPhone do that to me all the time.

 

[Arwin]

Was this posted?

http://uk.playstation.com/home/news...361/Talking-NGP-with-Shuhei-Yoshida-–-part-2/

I was just thinking that a game like Populous would be neat to play with the dual touch input, pressing the earth down from the top, and pushing the earth up from the bottom, shaking for earthquakes, etc.

LiveArea sounds really great too. They should introduce that to the PS3 as well.

 

[Arwin]

What is different for NGP vs PSP?

(in progress, getting tired, I'm sure I'll find more negatives soon)

Positive:
- Sony did a great job apparently with the developer tools, is the vibe we're getting from developers, with even Visual Studio support it seems
- Sony provides an online service toolset from day one in the form of LiveArea, giving friends-list integration, news, scoreboards, online matchup for at the very least every sony produced game
- Dual Analog sticks promise to greatly improve over one of the biggest gripes of the original PSP
- OLED screen gets rid of all the ghosting
- Front multi-touch screen gives access to all touch-screen developed games
- Rear multi-touch screen allows new types of game input as well as a non-screen-blocking alternative to front screen multi-touch
- Gyroscope and accelerometers (hardware identical to Move apparently) and front and rear cameras allow for cool AR stuff (that dynosaur demo was apparently pretty awesome), leveraging Sony's expertise in this area from previous camera experiments both on PSP and PS2/3, as well as good and precise motion control in general
- GPS supported in all versions so can be used by games as well as route planning stuff
- Unreal Engine 3.0 is supported day one allowing developers to relatively cheaply target NGP besides their other platforms
- WiFi and 3G versions allow for price differentiation iPod/iPhone style
- UMD is replaced with flash cards supporting increments of 2GB
- Playstation Suite support allows development of more casual games for both NGP and all Android platforms with a certain minimum hardware spec
- GPU and CPU are both high-end and common, well known within the portable CE industry

Neutral:
- while the OLED screen looks pretty awesome, I don't think you can say that at least relatively it will have more of an impact than the PSP's screen did back in 2004. With 5" in size, it does offer an advantage over iPhone and iPods, but of course lags behind iPads.
- PSP looked great, but NGP hasn't progressed much in terms of looks, so impact is less

Negative:
- higher competition from iOS and Android devices
- no 3D screen to compete with the 3DS
- carries bad reputation from the original PSP in terms of games (dwindling support in the US in later years, many ports of PS2 games that ended up with worse load-times and bad controls) and piracy

 

[Bigduo209]

Spoiler

Hmm. I'll comment further down.
This thread is supposedly about the business side of Sonys new handheld games console, and if so there are quite a few questions that seems appropriate to discuss, such as
Q1. How will the new console do in the marketplace vs. the old?
Q2. How will it do in the marketplace vs. the only other dedicated handheld console, the 3DS?
Q3. What is, or should be, the target demographic of the NGP?
Q4. What might be a likely price for the new device, all things considered?
Q5. Is it likely to be a profitable device, as a whole, for Sony?

I'm convinced that the rise of the multimedia phones profoundly changes the market conditions for handheld gaming consoles. Putting actual numbers to that is difficult though, and you are certainly right that there is a market for devices that aren't constantly connected. Furthermore, I'd say that there is a hard-core market of affluent gamers that is likely to buy the NGP simply because it is a device that interests them. However, the other side of that coin is that it is pretty much undeniable that the smartphone market to a large extent is a superset of the NGP market, and that by the time the NGP comes to market, it needs to justify its purchase as an additional portable device over potentially both a smartphone, and among the hard-core handheld gaming fans, the 3DS. I have yet to see any argument put forth that would motivate actual growth beyond what the PSP has achieved. So my take is
A1. The NGP will see a smaller market than the PSP. How much smaller?

How will it do vs. the 3DS? Well, with the 3DS, Nintendo has targeted a tighter demographic than with the DS, the exception being that novelty seekers may be attracted to the 3D-screen, giving some additional sales. Nintendo seems to aim for a very closed garden type of eco-system. They have the only 3D-screen, they are the only ones with dual screens, they have a unique internal hardware architecture. It is unlikely that it will have much in the way of multi platform games. For better or worse, this means that it will offer something unique in the gaming landscape, not only at launch but for the foreseeable future. (If it's something "better" is another question entirely.) I'd say that this is likely to help Nintendo keep interest going for their platform, beyond the initial enthusiast purchases. Also, in relation to the NGP, launching significantly ahead is an advantage, as I doubt the NGP and the 3DS address completely distinct markets.
A2. Over the lifetime of the console, the 3DS is likely to sell in greater numbers. (Weaker conclusion than A1)

Since a lot of people will have difficulty justifying an additional handheld gaming device, and the 3DS is launching ahead, I don't think targeting casual gamers or pushing the multimedia qualities of the NGP makes sense. Let's face it, those categories already have their needs well covered. So Sony has little choice other than ensure that they get the attention and dollars of the hard-core. That category is also likely to buy more games anyway, yielding higher net revenue per NGP sold. And this is what Sony seems to do, revealing a very ambitious internal processor, 3G and WiFi, the biggest and highest resolution handheld OLED screen yet, double capacitive touch panels, and real joysticks and other physical controls.
A3. Sony should to target the hard-core gamer demographic.

This decision also means that the console will be costly to produce. Not only does it offer everything a smartphone does in terms of hardware, it offers more. On top of that, Sony won't just slap Android on the NGP, it will offer its own software environment/applications/development tools et cetera. So compared to the smartphones, it also carries large additional software costs for Sony. The NGP will cost more than the high-end smartphones to produce. But it also has a different business model, where game sales generate additional revenue for Sony. The price of the device + the licensing revenue must generate profit. Pricing of smartphones in countries where there they sell like any other consumer electronics device imply that if it hadn't had licensing to sustain it, it would have needed to sell at over €700, (that's a mere €100 up from its much lower specced SE phone sibling.) So how much licensing revenue can they expect from an NGP? Lets be optimistic, and call it €200 (actually, I think this is too high, on the other hand they may have better margins on their own games). That would leave us at €500. Of course, they will get better longevity out of the NGP than a phone, so there is likely to be cost reductions in production over time. So lets assume they lower the initial price against the hope of sustained sales at lower production costs later in the product life cycle. Note that this implies that it won't have much room for price reductions later on. I'd say that an initial price of €400 is fairly likely, possibly including a first party game, so
A4. €399 or $400 MSRP at launch. (A lot for a game console, cheap for a small tablet with excellent gaming capabilities.)

So will this make money for Sony? Damned if I know. It seems like a risky gamble to me, then again Sonys business model is to develop and bring new technology to the market and try to make it mass market enough to recoup costs and more, so this kind of gamble is their modus operandi. As long as they win more often than not, they're ok. Will the NGP loose too many customers to competing platforms? Will the multiplatform possibilities of the NGP play out to their advantage yielding a lot of titles for the platform even later in its lifetime, or will it make the NGP seem like an increasingly pointless device vs. other platforms running the same titles?
A5. I really can't say. I don't think Sony can either.

That's my brain dump as far as NGP "business" is concerned. It's too long. Sorry. Think I'll shut up now that I've had my say.

lol Wow, that's quite the analyst report there.

But yeah, there's a lot of factors to consider how the NGP will fare against the surrounding competition. However I do feel that pricing it around 250 to 300 bucks will help put it in-between a dedicated games console and high-end tablets/smartphones can only attract more initial sales.

Developer love through ease of programming also helps insure that it has good launch support. Not sure if Sony will throw in any free games for the launch, but having legacy PSP/PSN titles, downloadable and retail games gives it some semblance of a head start software-wise.

What is different for NGP vs PSP?

(in progress, getting tired, I'm sure I'll find more negatives soon)

Positive:
- Sony did a great job apparently with the developer tools, is the vibe we're getting from developers, with even Visual Studio support it seems
- Sony provides an online service toolset from day one in the form of LiveArea, giving friends-list integration, news, scoreboards, online matchup for at the very least every sony produced game
- Dual Analog sticks promise to greatly improve over one of the biggest gripes of the original PSP
- OLED screen gets rid of all the ghosting
- Front multi-touch screen gives access to all touch-screen developed games
- Rear multi-touch screen allows new types of game input as well as a non-screen-blocking alternative to front screen multi-touch
- Gyroscope and accelerometers (hardware identical to Move apparently) and front and rear cameras allow for cool AR stuff (that dynosaur demo was apparently pretty awesome), leveraging Sony's expertise in this area from previous camera experiments both on PSP and PS2/3, as well as good and precise motion control in general
- GPS supported in all versions so can be used by games as well as route planning stuff
- Unreal Engine 3.0 is supported day one allowing developers to relatively cheaply target NGP besides their other platforms
- WiFi and 3G versions allow for price differentiation iPod/iPhone style
- UMD is replaced with flash cards supporting increments of 2GB
- Playstation Suite support allows development of more casual games for both NGP and all Android platforms with a certain minimum hardware spec
- GPU and CPU are both high-end and common, well known within the portable CE industry

Neutral:
- while the OLED screen looks pretty awesome, I don't think you can say that at least relatively it will have more of an impact than the PSP's screen did back in 2004. With 5" in size, it does offer an advantage over iPhone and iPods, but of course lags behind iPads.
- PSP looked great, but NGP hasn't progressed much in terms of looks, so impact is less

Negative:
- higher competition from iOS and Android devices
- no 3D screen to compete with the 3DS
- carries bad reputation from the original PSP in terms of games (dwindling support in the US in later years, many ports of PS2 games that ended up with worse load-times and bad controls) and piracy

Having better controls and load-times definitely separates the NGP from the PSP on the performance side of things, but Sony has to aggressively show/market the handheld features to show that it's more than just a better PSP.

Like you said, the NGP has no 3D screen (therefore no obvious visual difference from it's predecessor), however Sony has to actively show consumers that it has gyroscopic/accelerometer motion controls and a back touch-panel. All that means demo kiosks in stores that actively promote those things, and well communicated adverts that display those features.

Networking features can help as well but how well impletmented will it be? Outside of Japan, the PSP's ad-hoc abilites were more on the useless side since there weren't enough people will an NGP to utilize it (especially if they don't have the same game). People have to use Ad-Hoc Party (PS3), a infrastructure work-around for ad-hoc play through wi-fi, or find a place where PSP users hang around. It would be nice if Sony provided a work-around that allowed or encouraged developers with mobile games on the NGP to allow people to play against smartphone users through at least a bluetooth connection. That would give some launch users the option to use some of the networking functionality upfront.

A lot of the NGP's success just depends on how well Sony and other developers treat the NGP as a platform, and how often will Sony make changes/updates on things based on what users want. But a lot of this starts with price and how many people Sony can get in on the ground-floor of the NGP's lifespan.

 

[Rangers]

If the rumored 249/349 pricing from the Ubisoft Survey turns to be true (huge if), that would make it massively more compelling indeed especially 249 for the base model. We are living in a world where the allowable gadget pricing has been adjusted up by comparison to the 499+ iPad no doubt.

 

[Bigduo209]

If the rumored 249/349 pricing from the Ubisoft Survey turns to be true (huge if), that would make it massively more compelling indeed especially 249 for the base model. We are living in a world where the allowable gadget pricing has been adjusted up by comparison to the 499+ iPad no doubt.

True about the price adjustment, but Apple is more than capable of getting away with it compared to other companies. Every other tech company trying to sell a tablet for that amount or more isn't gonna steal Apple's fire, maybe attract a few people as a nice alternative, but no real huge success anytime soon.

Maybe when enough tablet alternatives (and Android's improving tablet platform) hit the market at varying prices we might see some loss in Apple's market-share (like smartphones), but until that happens we're not gonna see much on that end.

 

[AlphaWolf]

True about the price adjustment, but Apple is more than capable of getting away with it compared to other companies. Every other tech company trying to sell a tablet for that amount or more isn't gonna steal Apple's fire, maybe attract a few people as a nice alternative, but no real huge success anytime soon.

Maybe when enough tablet alternatives (and Android's improving tablet platform) hit the market at varying prices we might see some loss in Apple's market-share (like smartphones), but until that happens we're not gonna see much on that end.

I'm not so sure android is the tablet people are looking for, the Xoom isn't exactly flying off shelves.

 

[Bigduo209]

I'm not so sure android is the tablet people are looking for, the Xoom isn't exactly flying off shelves.

But that's my point, other tablets aren't going fly off shelves unless these other companies offer good competition (through pricing and varied models) and the android tablet-platform improves (Android 3.0).