Sony's NeoGeo Pocket's (PSP2/Vita) business/non technical ramifications talk

[patsu]

Perhaps this is relevant; may be not. I can't tell for sure yet:
http://kotaku.com/#!5775640/a-plea-for-games-to-grow-up

I just have this vague notion that it's a question not only for Sony to tackle but for the so-called core gaming industry. I myself is a half core, half casual guy:

He was flipping this into a money question, remarking that his 10-year old son had given up playing expensive games on the PlayStation 3 and Nintendo DS for one-dollar and free games on the iPad. "How are we going to justify in the future that people play $69 to play our games?" he asked, translating his artistic plea into one some game-greenlighting suit could understand. "We need to create more meaningful content."

 

[oramay]

I think we're getting a bit tied up arguing about possible performance specs' for phones and tablets when talking about competition with traditional portable consoles.
So lets just assume for a moment that the next generation of ios devices have an infinitely powerful CPU/GPU and limitless RAM, you are constrained merely by development budget and imagination.

How are you going to get around the problem of game control? Even with all this power you still wont have proper controllable racing games, be they sims like GT or arcade racers like mario cart, no properly controllable 1st or 3rd person games, no complex adventure games like dinosaur hunter or oblivion. What you have left are the games these devises excel in, games like angry birds or world of goo, games that are fun because of the way you control them.

Now I love world of goo on the ipad, tremendous game for the 59p I paid for it, but I wouldn't want to pay £30 which is probably something nearer the mark for a huge development team to construct a photo realistic world on my infinitely powerful ipad.

Now whether the NGP or 3DS will succeed is another matter entirely, that's down to whether people want to play complex games on the move, but I don't think it's going to have any to do with competition from phones.

Good thought experiment.

 

[Prophecy2k]

All Sony's NGP needs to do to suceed, and also quiet the "we don't want console games on handheld" naysayers is to focus on getting the right games on the platform. If sony can secure games like:

- Valkyria Chronicles
- Super Robot Wars (OG - so we can get it here in europe too )
- SRPGs like advance wars
- Some kind of Pokemon type game
- An MGS game
- some JRPGs
- some western RPGs (never had any on portables before and would be an awesome fit)
- a REAL Gran Turismo game
- more Patapon & Locoroco
- Monster Hunter
- GTA and/or open world games

I'm sure there are other game types that would just work exceptionally well on NGP that haven't worked or even been attempted on previous handhelds for obvious reasons.

The dual stick control and front & back touch screen options alone give NGP so much more potential for games that there simply hasn't been before. I'm excited to see what the Japanese devs can do with the thing... TGS hopefully

 

[liolio]

I also believe that the device will be succesful in Japan and do well elsewhere. All they have to do is to sell at reasonnable price the device and the games.

But I believe that Sony still lack a bit of ambition for the device. It should have been the counter part of the playstation phone (xperia thingy) which has already felt in the limbs of gadget devices.

They should have been less focused on hard and more on the OS and service. They should have teamed up with Sony-Erickson and support the product. For the NGP when I toy with my wife kindle I find is the just the perfect form factor... for many things. Gaming would be nice, browsing too, reading (it happens that Sony sells reader too, as kindle is a success they could have try to have synergy with their existing products) etc.
They could have gone with lesser gaming like input too (nb I'm not saying none) or try to design input that can serve both purposes).

Not doing so they closed themselves the chance to compete against Apple, Google and may be MS (if they manage to do something worth it out of WM7 and onwards) in the long run.

 

[eastmen]

I do not really see the difference between a portable Uncharted and NSMB in the short term gaming category. Why would it not be fun to play a portbable Uncharted for 15 minutes?

Can you load uncharted on NGP get into the game and beat a level in 15 minutes or less ? I can beat a NSMB level in 5 minutes or so .


With a game like pokemon or dragon warrior on my DS i can have the game ready to go from where I was , close my device do what i need to do then get on the train open it up and its already there to the point i was at play it till i get off the train close the handheld . Then when i have more time open it and kill some more monsters for exp.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I can't vouch for handheld gamers, but if games are only supposed to last five minutes between other thing...what exactly is the point?! 5 minutes without a digital audio-visual experience is too long for the MTV generation?

 

[Arwin]

Can you load uncharted on NGP get into the game and beat a level in 15 minutes or less ? I can beat a NSMB level in 5 minutes or so .

Uncharted 2 had, what, 26 chapters? That amounts tothe same length close enough. Of course LittleBigPlanet is an even better example, but if they add some kind of time/score chase to Uncharted NGP with online rankings, then no question I would play that a tonne, and definitely prefer that over NSMB (but I am a professed non-fan of MB)

With a game like pokemon or dragon warrior on my DS i can have the game ready to go from where I was , close my device do what i need to do then get on the train open it up and its already there to the point i was at play it till i get off the train close the handheld . Then when i have more time open it and kill some more monsters for exp.

But that was already the same with the PSP. You could put that into suspend for any game since launch 2004 as well (a very welcome feature too, considering some of the load-time issues some games had back then )

 

[GZ007]

Can you load uncharted on NGP get into the game and beat a level in 15 minutes or less ? I can beat a NSMB level in 5 minutes or so .


With a game like pokemon or dragon warrior on my DS i can have the game ready to go from where I was , close my device do what i need to do then get on the train open it up and its already there to the point i was at play it till i get off the train close the handheld . Then when i have more time open it and kill some more monsters for exp.

U can turn off the psp any time in game too. Then turn on and play from the same place. Its not a wonder quite some time.



And to the NGP vs Phones/Tablest and the doom of handhelds. For me the awkward touch control is enough to make them obsolete to any handheld console.
On top of that the latest tablets and super phones cost an arm and leg.(the NGP price is still a question thou ) And i expect the next generation with those x-times faster gpu-s and arm A-15 cpus cost even more when they release them. They will want back the money they spent into development. ARM already told that they will ask more for the new cpu-s.

 

[tuna]

Can you load uncharted on NGP get into the game and beat a level in 15 minutes or less ? I can beat a NSMB level in 5 minutes or so .

If you think of a "level" as a firefight, environment traversal or puzzle, sure, why not? Especially if you use suspend, or the "resume game" function from the Go.

 

[Fafalada]

With a game like pokemon or dragon warrior on my DS i can have the game ready to go from where I was

On PSP Go this is a system-feature, so you can do it with every game, even the PS1 ones.
The only question is whether NGP will inherit this or not (it'd be stupid not to, but this is still Sony we're talking about).

 

[RudeCurve]

On top of that the latest tablets and super phones cost an arm and leg.(the NGP price is still a question thou ) And i expect the next generation with those x-times faster gpu-s and arm A-15 cpus cost even more when they release them. They will want back the money they spent into development. ARM already told that they will ask more for the new cpu-s.

Technology gets cheaper over time...in other words you'll be able to get higher performance hardware for the same price after you wait a certain amount of time. For example ipad 2 will have higher performance hardware yet still sell for the same price as the original iPad same with the upcoming iPhone 5. It's just a question of how long do you have to wait.

 

[Arwin]

On PSP Go this is a system-feature, so you can do it with every game, even the PS1 ones.
The only question is whether NGP will inherit this or not (it'd be stupid not to, but this is still Sony we're talking about).

There are two separate features here, just to make sure this is clear:

- universal suspend. This works on any PSP with any game. You briefly press up on the power slider and the machine goes into suspend mode, using a tiny bit of battery power to keep memory up-to-date.
- game state-saves. This only works on the PSP Go, and allows you to save game-state (basically all your current memory contents, which is never more than 32MB on the PSP) to your 16GB of internal Flash for any game at any time. This as far as I know does not exist on any DS, and is otherwise only commonly found in emulators.

I like by the way that there are many people here thinking that the continuous upgrade cycle of hardware in the mobile space is a good thing. I wouldn't take that for granted - just look at consoles vs PCs for games. And while I'm not stating that the phone space is identical to this situation, the advantages of fixed, dedicated hardware remain relevant. But finding the balance between small cheap games and bigger expensive games will be a new challenge (though that challenge already also exists on all other gaming platforms, really, in the form of PSN/XBLA and WiiWare games vs 'retail games')

 

[Prophecy2k]

Technology gets cheaper over time...in other words you'll be able to get higher performance hardware for the same price after you wait a certain amount of time. For example ipad 2 will have higher performance hardware yet still sell for the same price as the original iPad same with the upcoming iPhone 5. It's just a question of how long do you have to wait.

Irrelevant because the iPad 1 & iPad 2 cost what? I paid £550 for my iPad 32GB + 3G. NGP will at most come in at £250-£350 max and will be twice as powerful as the iPad 2 on release. By the time the iPad 3 releases and maybe iPhone 6, that would possibly match or exceed the power of the NGP, the NGP itself will be selling for < half their cost at the same performance.

NGP is a more affordable more powerful gaming system. And whilst it won't be more powerful forever, it can be far more affordable for the masses who are buying it for it's gaming/multimedia capability.

Anyways, iPad is a tablet computer. People don't pay £550 for an iPad just to game on it (unless they really have a fetish for iOS touch gaming on a larger screen.... errrghhh). Same with the iPhone.

NGP will only be competing directly with the ipod touch & 3DS. Mobile phones are mobile phones, and the fact that people play games on them doesn't mean that other's who want dedicated mobile gaming HW won't want it anymore. People have always played games on mobiles anyway; snake, tetris clones, bejeweled clones etc. Handheld gaming never suffered then and i don't see much changing significantly now. Of course i may be wrong, but i'm not convinced ;-)

 

[RudeCurve]

Irrelevant because the iPad 1 & iPad 2 cost what? I paid £550 for my iPad 32GB + 3G. NGP will at most come in at £250-£350 max and will be twice as powerful as the iPad 2 on release. By the time the iPad 3 releases and maybe iPhone 6, that would possibly match or exceed the power of the NGP, the NGP itself will be selling for < half their cost at the same performance.

NGP is a more affordable more powerful gaming system. And whilst it won't be more powerful forever, it can be far more affordable for the masses who are buying it for it's gaming/multimedia capability.

Anyways, iPad is a tablet computer. People don't pay £550 for an iPad just to game on it (unless they really have a fetish for iOS touch gaming on a larger screen.... errrghhh). Same with the iPhone.

NGP will only be competing directly with the ipod touch & 3DS. Mobile phones are mobile phones, and the fact that people play games on them doesn't mean that other's who want dedicated mobile gaming HW won't want it anymore. People have always played games on mobiles anyway; snake, tetris clones, bejeweled clones etc. Handheld gaming never suffered then and i don't see much changing significantly now. Of course i may be wrong, but i'm not convinced ;-)

WTF??? Who the hell is comparing iPads to the NGP??? Only reason why I brought it up is to show how prices can stay the same while hardware specs increase.

The point is NGP specs will stay static while newer smartphones will get more and more powerful without a pricing increase. Smartphones like the iPhones will be competing with NGP whether you like it or not.

 

[Arwin]

WTF??? Who the hell is comparing iPads to the NGP??? Only reason why I brought it up is to show how prices can stay the same while hardware specs increase.

The point is NGP specs will stay static while newer smartphones will get more and more powerful without a pricing increase.

The point is that the NGP's specs may stay static, but its price won't. On the other hand, the newer smartphones will get a specs increase but have a static price. Smartphones will also lack the benefit of being able to be programmed to the core and have all available memory to themselves at all times. So you could be in the position where standalone smartphone hardware stays at $500, where the NGP drops below $200.

Smartphones like the iPhones will be competing with NGP whether you like it or not.

There is no question that they will have overlapping functionality and thus competition. The question is how much. I think anyone who thinks there's an easy answer to that one is probably misguided.

 

[Entropy]

The point is that the NGP's specs may stay static, but its price won't. On the other hand, the newer smartphones will get a specs increase but have a static price. Smartphones will also lack the benefit of being able to be programmed to the core and have all available memory to themselves at all times. So you could be in the position where standalone smartphone hardware stays at $500, where the NGP drops below $200.

There is no question that they will have overlapping functionality and thus competition. The question is how much. I think anyone who thinks there's an easy answer to that one is probably misguided.

In a series of interviews with Japanese developers, the consensus estimate for Sony NGP introductory price was 30000JPY, or 365USD (straight conversion, no customs or taxes). Of course, this may turn out to be incorrect, nor is it an indication of how the price will develop over the years. Perhaps to gain traction, Sony will accept larger losses on the hardware that will conversely lead to them keeping the pricing constant as they try to recoup their initial losses. Impossible to say really. But the NGP will clearly have a hardware budget that is somewhat higher than smartphones at the time of the release ("large" oled, hardware controls (+ mechanical parts lead to returns), large SoC), so looking at the prices of the top smartphones in countries where they can be bought without carrier subsidies is probably a good indication of where its price should fall. The Sony Ericsson Experia Play for instance, since it is a similar but less ambitious device. SInce its price is quite a bit higher than 30000JPY, it would seem that the japanese developers hope that Sony will accept a loss, or at least very thin margins on the NGP.

 

[Prophecy2k]

In a series of interviews with Japanese developers, the consensus estimate for Sony NGP introductory price was 30000JPY, or 365USD (straight conversion, no customs or taxes). Of course, this may turn out to be incorrect, nor is it an indication of how the price will develop over the years. Perhaps to gain traction, Sony will accept larger losses on the hardware that will conversely lead to them keeping the pricing constant as they try to recoup their initial losses. Impossible to say really. But the NGP will clearly have a hardware budget that is somewhat higher than smartphones at the time of the release ("large" oled, hardware controls (+ mechanical parts lead to returns), large SoC), so looking at the prices of the top smartphones in countries where they can be bought without carrier subsidies is probably a good indication of where its price should fall. The Sony Ericsson Experia Play for instance, since it is a similar but less ambitious device. SInce its price is quite a bit higher than 30000JPY, it would seem that the japanese developers hope that Sony will accept a loss, or at least very thin margins on the NGP.

Sony will either go thin margin or take a small hit on each unit (initially). Mobile phones have larger built in margins so are not directly comparable in terms of cost.

At this point i'd say it isn't really worth speculating on the price and better to just wait for an announcement. Sony more than anyone knows how cheap/expensive it can source it's components. They know they need to compete with the 3DS and iPod Touch. Coming into the market at $365 without an autostereoscopic screen (or comparable hype-generating gimmick) is suicide (and no don't bother referencing the PSPGo as we all know by now what the point of making that so expensive was).

I just say wait and see on the price of the NGP before declaring it a failure/success (not that you specifically were doing that).

 

[Arwin]

The Sony Ericsson Experia Play for instance, since it is a similar but less ambitious device. SInce its price is quite a bit higher than 30000JPY, it would seem that the japanese developers hope that Sony will accept a loss, or at least very thin margins on the NGP.

Prices of phone hardware are exaggerated anyway to make bundles seem more attractive, so I doubt that's a reliable benchmark to go by. Also, look at the iPad 2 and its pricetag - what are the component costs of that one?

I expect their target for pricing should at $299 for the non-3G version. They've indicated in every way possible that they've learnt their lesson about introducing hardware at too high a price. They've pretty much indicated that they've foregone video-out features in order to keep pricing low. If the hardware can't be sold at profit or near profit around launch, they'll likely stagger release further than currently planned, or keep supply low.

 

[RudeCurve]

The point is that the NGP's specs may stay static, but its price won't. On the other hand, the newer smartphones will get a specs increase but have a static price. Smartphones will also lack the benefit of being able to be programmed to the core and have all available memory to themselves at all times. So you could be in the position where standalone smartphone hardware stays at $500, where the NGP drops below $200.

Programming to the metal is pretty much irrelevent when the graphics output from iPhone6 will most likely be indistinguishable from the NGP...and since NGP uses the same architecture as iPhone porting instead of down to the metal coding is more likely.

 

[Rangers]

Prices of phone hardware are exaggerated anyway to make bundles seem more attractive,

Or just look at iPod prices which are for essentially the same hardware as iPhone, but a magically much lower price and still immensely profitable.