Sony's NeoGeo Pocket's (PSP2/Vita) business/non technical ramifications talk

[eastmen]

For 10y old pokemon kids its maybe fail, for a lot of poeple its not (myself included as a PSP owner). Just because nintendo sold more of it to kids, grandmams etc doesnt mean its better. Wii has the most sales of the new consoles and its the worst one of the three for a lot of poeple. I think sony earned a lot of money on the PSP-s to not call it a fail. The DSi and PSP were in different category each. And the same will happen to 3DS and NGP i think.

And about those casual games. DSi-s hardware was craptastic compared to PSP so maybe that was the main reason . Now they will have games like Resident Evil and MGS which arent exactly pick up and play.

PSP software ssales are horrible and allways have bene horrible. UMD movies failed on the device also.

People of all ages play the DS .

I'm certianly not 10 years old and I haven't played a pokemon since pokemon blue back when i was a senior in highschool (had to get through history some how ) .


I don't see how such an expensie device that will most likely be eclipsed by portable phone soon after its introduction is going to be sucessful.

Uncharted is a fun game , I love it , but I can't pull it out and have fun while i'm waiting for the movie trailers to come up or when i'm on a 15 minute train ride to the city.

I can pull up a game like new super mario brothers and make progress.


The NGP offers a quad core cpu with a pretty strong mobile gpu. However nvidia expects their own quad core cpu to release later this year. For many American's their holiday 2011 phones may be more powerful than their march 2012 NGP or at least on the same level.

I dunno , i don't see it suceeding , i think it will end up with even less market share than the psp

 

[Entropy]

A billion? How many people in the world can "afford" an iphone or ipad?
http://www.globalrichlist.com/
According to the above website, there are about a billion people in the world who earns USD2000/year or more. Are people in the developing world going to spend months of income on an iOS device soon? Will rich countries average more than 1 iOS device per head in a couple of years?

IF there is a strong tendency for people to "upgrade" their iOS devices every year or two compared with more traditional consoles, how do you interpret "installed base"?

Which shows one of the dangers of extrapolating.
That said, roughly one billion cell phones per year are sold, and tablets (and iPod touch like devices) are in addition to that, so there is quite a market, regardless of official income data. What I see around me is that devices migrate - as one person upgrades their device go to someone else. This spreads the income brackets where the gadgets are common. In my nieces class in school just over one third has an iOS device, from iPhone4s to second hand iPod touches. None of them earn a dime.

Regardless, I'd say that the NGP sells to a subset of the iOS market. If people can't afford to invest that money into a multifunctional phone, how can they afford to put the same kind of money into dedicated gaming device? No matter how you slice it, the phones compete directly with the handheld consoles, something which wasn't the case when the DS and PSP were launched.

 

[tuna]

PSP software ssales are horrible and allways have bene horrible. UMD movies failed on the device also.

Ten million copies of Monster Hunter Portable says hi!

 

[tuna]

Uncharted is a fun game , I love it , but I can't pull it out and have fun while i'm waiting for the movie trailers to come up or when i'm on a 15 minute train ride to the city.

I can pull up a game like new super mario brothers and make progress.

I do not really see the difference between a portable Uncharted and NSMB in the short term gaming category. Why would it not be fun to play a portbable Uncharted for 15 minutes?

 

[Rangers]

Slides from the NGP panel:
http://www.joystiq.com/screenshots/sony-next-generation-portable-ngp-gdc-panel/3940188#/1

...talks a little about the high level architecture and OS services.
(Very high level)

Ehh, they confirm in there directly, NGP will be less powerful than PS3/360. Assets and shaders will have to be scaled back, etc.

Really removes a lot of the appeal for me. I was hoping it could exceed the current gen consoles in at least some aspect.

 

[patsu]

Ehh, they confirm in there directly, NGP will be less powerful than PS3/360. Assets and shaders will have to be scaled back, etc.

Really removes a lot of the appeal for me. I was hoping it could exceed the current gen consoles in at least some aspect.

Sure... it probably exceeds PS3 and 360 in power efficiency. ^_^

I think one of the earlier articles said we'll need to reduce the polygons, but pixel work is comparable (No/little change needed) because of the smaller screen.

 

[MrSpiggott]

I think we're getting a bit tied up arguing about possible performance specs' for phones and tablets when talking about competition with traditional portable consoles.
So lets just assume for a moment that the next generation of ios devices have an infinitely powerful CPU/GPU and limitless RAM, you are constrained merely by development budget and imagination.

How are you going to get around the problem of game control? Even with all this power you still wont have proper controllable racing games, be they sims like GT or arcade racers like mario cart, no properly controllable 1st or 3rd person games, no complex adventure games like dinosaur hunter or oblivion. What you have left are the games these devises excel in, games like angry birds or world of goo, games that are fun because of the way you control them.

Now I love world of goo on the ipad, tremendous game for the 59p I paid for it, but I wouldn't want to pay £30 which is probably something nearer the mark for a huge development team to construct a photo realistic world on my infinitely powerful ipad.

Now whether the NGP or 3DS will succeed is another matter entirely, that's down to whether people want to play complex games on the move, but I don't think it's going to have any to do with competition from phones.

 

[ShadowRunner]

Ehh, they confirm in there directly, NGP will be less powerful than PS3/360. Assets and shaders will have to be scaled back, etc.

Really removes a lot of the appeal for me. I was hoping it could exceed the current gen consoles in at least some aspect.

It runs on a battery, what ever gave you the idea that it would ever be more powerful than PS3??

Regardless of the power it doesnt mean games wont 'look' on a similar level as ps3 games. Just displaying on a 5" screen will mean a lot of sacrifices can be made without effecting the look of a game as much as you would think.

 

[Rangers]

Sure... it probably exceeds PS3 and 360 in power efficiency. ^_^

I think one of the earlier articles said we'll need to reduce the polygons, but pixel work is comparable (No/little change needed) because of the smaller screen.

Relevant slides

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.joystiq.com/media/2011/03/gdc11-ngp-preso-26.jpg

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.joystiq.com/media/2011/03/gdc11-ngp-preso-28.jpg

Second one speaks of "simplify models, shaders, textures etc"

This too me is the first direct confirmation that I know of that NGP is less powerful than PS3/360, no matter if there were hints before, or if some will claim it was an obvious fact etc.

I was hoping NGP might exceed current consoles in one area or another, even if it was at a deficit in most.

 

[Cyan]

Again, I think the NGP looks like a very capable gaming platform. However, I can also see how smartphones with their ever increasing capabilities and wide utility, as well as the 3DS with its physical controls, classical game IP, 3D-capabilities, and a year head start, both conspire to make the NGP market window look very tight. Sonys demonstration reinforced that impression - it was largely targeted at PS3 users that wanted to revisit the franchises they have already played for six years in a mobile format. For the life of me, I can't see that as an approach for a healthy user base.

I think using mobiles as gaming platforms is a passing fad. People will grow tired of millions of 2€ games who don't offer anything and are programmed to make easy money.

Xbox Live Indie Games, for instance, has thousands of games but really fun or playable, there are just a few, compared to the non quality games.

I'd expect some hits like Angry Birds, Farmville and stuff, but that's it.

 

[JB9861]

This too me is the first direct confirmation that I know of that NGP is less powerful than PS3/360, no matter if there were hints before, or if some will claim it was an obvious fact etc.

What gave you the impression Sony was interested in introducing a portable device more powerful than the PS3/360?

 

[Rangers]

The fact they said it was as powerful as the PS3 might have been a hint.

1 Gb of RAM or more in a portable device would be quite run of the mill actually. Which is 2X as much as in PS3.

Seems I wasn't the only one thinking this way as there is a flurry of stories about it today http://kotaku.com/#!5775033/sonys-new-ngp-isnt-quite-as-powerful-as-a-ps3-despite-what-youve-heard

The initial reports tended to simply say "PS3 level of graphics" and the like.

 

[ShadowRunner]

They didnt say that from what i can remember, it was rumours from peoples impressions of the device before it was even announced. People should really take such impressions with a pinch of salt. Not to say they were lies, the games may well look like PS3 game, that is different to the device being as powerful. You just have to look at the size of the PS3 Slim to know it wasnt going to happen.

"Some people in the press have said 'Wow, this thing could be as powerful as a PS3.'," Coombes said. "Well, it's not going to run at 2 GHz because the battery would last five minutes... and it would probably set fire to your pants."

Says it all really, the press suggested it, not sony. Bad idea to listen to general press impressions when it comes to technical specifics. All you should take is that to thier eyes the games looked to be PS3 level, nothing to do with the actual power of the device.

 

[patsu]

The fact they said it was as powerful as the PS3 might have been a hint.

1 Gb of RAM or more in a portable device would be quite run of the mill actually. Which is 2X as much as in PS3.

Seems I wasn't the only one thinking this way as there is a flurry of stories about it today http://kotaku.com/#!5775033/sonys-new-ngp-isnt-quite-as-powerful-as-a-ps3-despite-what-youve-heard

The initial reports tended to simply say "PS3 level of graphics" and the like.

I think one or two of the devs who ported their NGP demoes said they left the pixel shaders unchanged, and reused the PS3 assets. It looks like the GPU can read system RAM like PS3 again. For real game, they will need to take everything into consideration. e.g., memory size, game card size vs Blu-ray, battery life vs max out h/w. use.

Portable has other on-the-go features anyway. Smaller screen should take up less power, not more.

 

[dobwal]

The NGP won't compete on specs or graphic quality. Tabs and phones will be a generation ahead techwise within 12-15 months of its release. And Google is already to working on lower level APIs to provide better use of the GPUs in products using Android. Furthermore how long has it been since superior tech or visual quality won dominate marketshare.

The NGP can succeed on price and proper focus on the right segment of the market.

Tabs are moving forward techwise at break neck speed. Tabs will move to single core to dual core to quad core in just over a two year period. Given that other than Apple, most manufacturer aren't producing anywhere near 10 million units a year and won't for a couple of years if at all, the current aggressive release schedule will come at a cost premium for most. Furthermore, Apple likes fat profit margins on their products and given their current market dominance and the inability of others to fully support the price range created by Apple, the Ipad won't see the lower prices capable of the NGP at release and within the next few years.

Smartphones are another matter, but they aren't attractive across the whole market. I doubt many parents are willing to obligate themselves to a $80+ a month, 2 year contract just so their kids can game on a portable device. At sub $200 prices, Sony only has to compete against the Ipod Touch and the 3DS. If Sony can ensure a healthy portion of its library targets this market and provides the proper marketing, the NGP can compete well with this crowd. It helps that parents may worry about the unknown ramifications that 3D has on young developing eyes, the NGP maybe a better choice in their eyes (no pun intended).

A good retail price, the under 16 market and the sizeable Sony fanbase in the core gaming crowd can ensure that the NGP becomes a successful product.

 

[dobwal]

I have a feeling that the S1 is a NGP in tab form.

At the current spec level for the NGP, it makes since for the S1 to use the same CPU/GPU. Given that the SI will go for a higher retail price and compete against tabs with similar tech planned for the NGP. I see no point in Sony not leveraging components across product as the SI is well suited for the guts of the NGP. It will allow Sony to drive down component costs, which will be a plus for both products especially the S1. Apple has an advantage with component cost due to the economies of scale, the more dual A9s Sony can incorporate in products the closer it will be able to compete with Apple on costs.

I think its very feasible to allow dual booting so the user gains access to the Android OS and its market as well as the NGP ecosystem. It will give Sony a well suited 3 prong approach to compete across the range of portable gaming products with both the NGP and PS Suite ecosystem.

I guess some would be turned off by the lack of actual dual sticks. But personally I don't mind the touch based dual control on the Android and IOS. I would gladly give up both the dual sticks and the trackpad, which I think would be a nice input addition to tabs, to have access to a bigger touch screen and both Android and NGP. And its a given that the vast majority of third party developers are going to leverage their NGP offerings across product lines, so touch based sticking will be there anyways for most titles as they will appear on Android and/or IOS.

 

[patsu]

dobwal, the world will change and evolve. As long as Sony stay on top of these changes, they should be fine. We may be able to get dedicated consoles cheaper too if they share enough parts. ^_^

The first event I'm waiting for is: Someone will/may announce a big budget game (e.g., RDR, GTA, or an Uncharted-like game) for the "common" platforms. What will happen next ? What's the price point ? How much would it be pirated ? Will it be on Playstation Suite ? ^_^

 

[dobwal]

dobwal, the world will change and evolve. As long as Sony stay on top of these changes, they should be fine.

Staying on top of changes in the gaming market isn't all that easy. Hindsight is 20/20, but there has been a lot of failing and missteps that come from obviously bad decisions from a lot of different manufacturers and developers.

 

[patsu]

Yes, but what can we do realistically without more info from Sony ? Sometimes, failures and missteps may breed bigger success too (See Wii after GameCube, Mac OSX after NeXT) as long as companies don't forget their purposes.

Anyway, here's a Shuhei interview on NGP:
http://uk.playstation.com/home/news...769/Talking-NGP-with-Shuhei-Yoshida-–-part-1/

He's positioning PS Suite for small games and devs. I think Sony may want to think more about their long term PS Suite to PS3 + NGP hook. The interesting thing about 3DS for me is not just the autostereoscopic 3D feature. It's the content and services. Iwata wants to offer something new/fresh everyday for his customers.

 

[Xmas]

And Google is already to working on lower level APIs to provide better use of the GPUs in products using Android.

Renderscript is "lower level" but it's not a low level API. It uses OpenGL ES 2.0 so it's higher level than what developers can already use on Android.