Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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Yeah, Kepler would be the better console GPU for sure it seems. Pretty odd how Sony jumped ship at exactly the wrong time. Prior to Kepler AMD was the markedly superior choice imo.

A major point of Kepler is less compute focus more gaming focus, which obviously suits consoles to a tee.

I dont think MS would go with Nvidia. You never know though, would be wild.
Let see how Kepler mid range offering does. Cap verde pro (ie 8 compute units) is the GPU offering the highest perf per watts now.
And Sony seems to go for APU so Nvidia is out of the picture.
 
Those pastebin specs aren't accurate... lol. Intentional obfuscation there, despite being correct in areas. Though I wouldn't expect you to pick up on it considering that it mentions that the Xbox is "double" the PS4 (lol 32 bit vs 64 bit... as if AMD makes 32-bit-only CPUs).

The notion that power is all that really matters in consoles is a laughable notion, regardless.

How do you know what rumored internet specs are real and not? Are you implying you somehow know something concrete about Durango and Orbis specs? Considering hows wildly wrong you've been on Wii U, 2012 Xbox (say, dont you owe me 50 bucks? :p ) , I doubt that.

I think I get what you're saying though, Intel i7 seems wrong on it's face, so the whole specs are suspect. Fair enough. I overreacted there.

It's exciting we're finally getting next gen movement. We now know likely code names for both next gen boxes. Real, concrete progress! 2013 is looking to be in play. BTW notable Kotaku once again the site doing credible next gen reporting while IGN twiddles their thumbs and posts next gen nonsense now and again.

BTW, I did not realize this thread was jumping to an APU conclusion for Orbis. Is anybody else struck how these alleged Orbis specs resemble the touted Durango specs that have popped up for months (EG, AMD APU). So the rumormonger sites got Orbis and Durango confused?
 
What's the mostly likely GPU Sony could get from the Southern Islands family? I mean are they going to go for a low-end model?

Geez if it's really an APU probably not going to be all that pretty.

Really we know nothing though.

Maybe both next gen consoles will go with an APU. Certainly hope not.
 
Geez if it's really an APU probably not going to be all that pretty.

Really we know nothing though.

Maybe both next gen consoles will go with an APU. Certainly hope not.

I dunno. This was from AMD's financial day slides. See the bullet one about the projected performance of the 2013 28nm Kaveri GPU. ~ 1 Tflop from 8 GCN CUs so about a 7750 level of performance.

I imagine a customized part may be in the 10-12 CU range putting the performance somewhere between a 7770 and a potential 7830.

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/5059/kaverislidetualp.png
 
Those pastebin specs aren't accurate... lol. Intentional obfuscation there, despite being correct in areas. Though I wouldn't expect you to pick up on it considering that it mentions that the Xbox is "double" the PS4 (lol 32 bit vs 64 bit... as if AMD makes 32-bit-only CPUs).

The notion that power is all that really matters in consoles is a laughable notion, regardless.

I think the problem is missing context. Numbers like 4K, 32/64-bit, 2/4Gb RAM, etc. are only useful if we know how these components or computing budgets are lined up, put to use, plus how much the system will cost.
 
Also, doesn't latency become more of an issue with GPGPU?
Not necessarily, but it certainly could be more of an issue. For example, if your compute kernel uses LDS to share data then the amount of LDS on the chip limits the amount of work you can have in flight which puts an upper bound on latency hiding.
 
The big advantage to 4k would be split screen like in a first person shooter. Have a few buddies over and play online together.

Imagine a 80" 4k TV.
Imagine four 720p player windows that fit into that space.

Render four seperate player windows at 480p and upscale each to 720p.


4k seems really usefull to me, but obviously not eveyone will have 4k TV.
And no one will have a console that can make a relatively decent looking FPS at 4k.
 
Imagine a 80" 4k TV.

I'm sure this will be really mainstream in the near future and obviously, catering to this huge market is what Sony and MS must do.

LOL, come on, people rarely even do splitscreen gaming any more, even besides the impossible cost of that TV. This is 2012. How many FPS even support splitscreen at all?
 
I dunno. This was from AMD's financial day slides. See the bullet one about the projected performance of the 2013 28nm Kaveri GPU. ~ 1 Tflop from 8 GCN CUs so about a 7750 level of performance.

I imagine a customized part may be in the 10-12 CU range putting the performance somewhere between a 7770 and a potential 7830.

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/5059/kaverislidetualp.png
That would be a nice improvement, another would be shifting from DDR3 to GDDR5 (at the cost of less ram).
Still I'm dubious Kaveri is already worth 100W of TDP accordingly to AMD own leak.
Moving from DDR3 to GDDR5 may grow the the figure by another ~ 10 Watts already by looking at some GPU that come both with ddr3 or gddr5. Without that extra bandwidth I'm not sure more horse power is worth the investment. With DDR3 the thing may be bandwidth starved already.
You could lower the clock speed and add SIMD but within a "somewhere around 100 Watts" budget I don't think that it would make a noticeable difference, would be welcome though.
A couple hundred GFLOPS would please nobody but geeks ;(

For marketing purpose Kaveri reaches the 1 TFLOPS figure already, "1.something" is not that much a marketing bullet point.

I wonder what Sony will add on the security front to prevent people to turn the thing into a PC.

Imho it still smells like a pretty off the shelves parts. In the face of overall few gain Sony may have decided to cut further R&D expanses all together.
 
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Imho it still smells like a pretty off the shelves parts. For overall few gain Sony may have decided to cut further R&D expanses all together.

Makes sense from a "must not lose $" viewpoint given Sony's condition. Off the shelf parts, low cost APU...

They could try to win with a less powerful but cheaper strategy. Maybe 299 out of the gate, maybe try to get the jump on MS in 2013 (not even sure Durango is 2013). Try to rack up hefty sales early. The only possible strategy if you're less powerful...

I was reading something earlier today that Sharp basically, ceded a lot of their company to Foxconn in an almost last ditch attempt at survival. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...28/bloomberg_articlesM1JAAS6K50XS01-M1LLL.DTL It really is bad out there for Japanese companies.
 
Rumors claim Microsoft will launch $100 Xbox Lite in 2013 before 720

http://www.techspot.com/news/47947-...-launch-100-xbox-lite-in-2013-before-720.html
This smells bad for core gamers imho, MS acknowledge consoles are no longer that much of threat for their core business and that consumers money may be moving elsewhere.

Depending on how successful windows8 is as a gaming platform (and so their market place)... on how mobile gaming evolved... and on the ps4 specs I would no longer exclude that MS simply doesn't fight back with a proprietary platform but more with a 'software platform' a windows 8 "media + gaming edition'" that would run on a given level of APU, so a coordinated push of "gaming enable" htpc along with whatever manufacturer that are willing to play this game (Dell, Asus, Acer, etc.).

It would also make sense for MS to pretend that their is something else than software after the xbox lite as I would expect a lot of noise in the console community that could hurt their image (whether it would be legitimate or not is another matter).
 
This smells bad for core gamers imho, MS acknowledge consoles are no longer that much of threat for their core business and that consumers money moves elsewhere.

Depending on how successful windows8 is as a gaming platform (and so their market place)... on how mobile gaming evolved... and on the ps4 specs I would no longer exclude that MS simply doesn't fight back with a proprietary platform but more with a 'software platform' a windows 8 "media + gaming edition'" that would run on a given level of APU, so a coordinated push of "gaming enable" htpc.

It would also make sense for MS to pretend that their is something else than software after the xbox lite as I would expect a lot of noise in the console community that could hurt their image (whether it would be legitimate or not is another matter).


You must not be paying attention. There is plenty of concrete evidence a "real" next box exists and development of software on it is underway. We also know the code name, Durango. There was a Durango developer conference in London recently.

I do think the consoles need to coopt some of the freemium, f2p, app, social gaming etc momentum. I think this can be done without killing core gaming on the box. Imagine today for example, simply making the X360 more friendly to app games wouldn't kill it's core capabilities imo. Now I think of it I'm sure the console makers are terrified of embracing 99 cent apps killing their $60 products, but I believe those are separate markets. But that's another thread.

I think the Xbox lite idea is plausible, what bothers me is Msnerd seems to be the ONLY one really talking about it. One source isnt enough.
 
Makes sense from a "must not lose $" viewpoint given Sony's condition. Off the shelf parts, low cost APU...

They could try to win with a less powerful but cheaper strategy.
Maybe 299 out of the gate, maybe try to get the jump on MS in 2013 (not even sure Durango is 2013). Try to rack up hefty sales early. The only possible strategy if you're less powerful...

I was reading something earlier today that Sharp basically, ceded a lot of their company to Foxconn in an almost last ditch attempt at survival. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...28/bloomberg_articlesM1JAAS6K50XS01-M1LLL.DTL It really is bad out there for Japanese companies.
I was reading this the other day and it was pointing to this and this part specifically:
And given how much competition has increased in the gaming space in the last few years, the new consoles are going to have to wow people right out of the gate. To ensure that happens, Microsoft knows it's better to wait until the games are closer to being done.
This may apply to Sony too, while relying on well known, off the shelves X86 hardware with all the matching software environment they may pull some impressive stuffs (vs the ps360 not nowadays high end pc) from scratch and thus creating an intensive for the average Joe to jump in, somehow trumping underwhelming specs... :???:

Honestly Kaveri (or something better, more bandwidth, a tad more raw power) is not that bad either, GCN has impressive characteristic and fare really well in the tech report 99 percentile frame tests. I hope that piledriver cores fix some of BD lacking though. But that type of hardware code closer to the metal has definitely quiet some potential, it will definitely do quiet a show off in front of the WiiU and an shining by its absence MS system.
 
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it will definitely do quiet a show off in front of the WiiU and an shining by its absence MS system.

What precludes a 2013 XB3 from todays new info?

The Xblite article just looked like a bunch of random speculation to me, especially any timeline stuff. And on top of that it's all based off the one source, MSnerd, again.

I'd put odds on a 2013 Xb3 (vs 2014) at maybe...50-50. Maybe even higher. Even though I have consistently urged caution on that front.

Whatever the other does is where the pressure is anyway, nobody has a meaningful timeline in a vacuum. When Sony jumps, MS MUST respond within a year, preferably less, and vice versa. Even Wii U could apply significant pressure if it's powerful enough.
 
You must not be paying attention. There is plenty of concrete evidence a "real" next box exists and development of software on it is underway. We also know the code name, Durango. There was a Durango developer conference in London recently.

I do think the consoles need to coopt some of the freemium, f2p, app, social gaming etc momentum. I think this can be done without killing core gaming on the box. Imagine today for example, simply making the X360 more friendly to app games wouldn't kill it's core capabilities imo. Now I think of it I'm sure the console makers are terrified of embracing 99 cent apps killing their $60 products, but I believe those are separate markets. But that's another thread.

I think the Xbox lite idea is plausible, what bothers me is Msnerd seems to be the ONLY one really talking about it. One source isnt enough.
I do notice all the talk about Durango, but with the high odds of the thing being pushed back to 2014, the thing could also be scrapped all together. MS is in a hell of fight to maintain his main business. I don't say it's likely but "I would no longer be that surprised".

Indeed we know nothing about this xbox lite and it could be noise but looking forward if it launches, as some success along with Apple and Google alternative what intensive MS would have to launch something else? (supposedly costly)

They have already a lot of user spending more time on Live features than on games. If MS has a clear success with windows 8 who knows, they ,may as well push the thing further into people living room extending their reach without the "xbox" brand as a proxy.

I also believe that there is a market for core games with quiet some money to be make but Pc/windows 8 gaming is pretty core too. That's indeed another topic may not worse discuss as odds are low but too me no longer zero.
 
What precludes a 2013 XB3 from todays new info?

The Xblite article just looked like a bunch of random speculation to me, especially any timeline stuff. And on top of that it's all based off the one source, MSnerd, again.

I'd put odds on a 2013 Xb3 (vs 2014) at maybe...50-50. Maybe even higher. Even though I have consistently urged caution on that front.

Whatever the other does is where the pressure is anyway, nobody has a meaningful timeline in a vacuum. When Sony jumps, MS MUST respond within a year, preferably less, and vice versa. Even Wii U could apply significant pressure if it's powerful enough.
That's just speculation I don't know better, basically discussing the noise of the day ;)

I believe that Nintendo launching first and with the Japanese market being more relevant to both Sony and Nintendo than to MS, Sony is even more pressed to react than MS. If the rumors has some ground a 100$ opens quiet some markets (emergent one + the new poor working class in occidental countries) to MS so they could suffer a delayed launch (if the thing is not scrapped).

I won't go further in airy speculation, I fully acknowledge that it's pretty much as airy as one can go before turning furry... :LOL:

EDIT
Back to rumors about the PS4 GCN is also a nicely feature architectures, support for PRT while not that relevant now in the PC realm may yield nice result in a closed box system and gain traction.
 
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