Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[TheChefO]

That is a really good point. What proof do we really have that this isn't just a standard hardware revision taken overboard by the rumor mill? Just saying that you have multiple sources isn't good enough if your multiple sources all got the information in the same place.

I can't take credit for it.

AlStrong among others were cautioning this when the original rumor came about.

Of course, I hope this is the xb720 and that the die size is 550-600mm2 @ 32nm and just under 500mm2 @ 28nm, but realistically, I can't see MS going with a single Huge SOC at the start of the generation.

Yield will be low which will cause costs to rise and there would likely be other sacrifices such as power or speed with such a large monolithic chip.

Pro would be that the GPU and CPU would/could have great low latency communication, but I'm not sure that would be enough to make up for the cons.

 

[jonabbey]

That is a really good point. What proof do we really have that this isn't just a standard hardware revision taken overboard by the rumor mill? Just saying that you have multiple sources isn't good enough if your multiple sources all got the information in the same place.

Charlie seems convinced they're for dev stations. I don't imagine doing a hardware shrink on the CPU/GPU/EDRAM in the current 360 dev stations is a very high Microsoft priority right now..

 

[TheChefO]

Charlie seems convinced they're for dev stations. I don't imagine doing a hardware shrink on the CPU/GPU/EDRAM in the current 360 dev stations is a very high Microsoft priority right now..

I agree if they are indeed for devkits, then it wouldn't make a lot of sense for a die shrunk xb360 to be a high priority. But what proof is there for this production run being for dev kits?

 

[Acert93]

Xbox 3 dev kit silicon in production, IBM CPU, HD 7000 Series GPU, 2013 release.

http://semiaccurate.com/2012/01/18/xbox-nextxbox-720-chips-in-production/

iirc the Xbox 360 dev kits had G5s with X800 GPUs. So I guess whatever is in the devkit would be a low end baseline of what to expect. With a fall 2013 window in the Semiaccurate article that would put tape outs by fall 2012 so the dev kits won't tell us too much outside of who the partners are and what general tech they are looking at.

 

[bkilian]

The semiaccurate guy reminds me a lot of Harold Camping. What will he do when people find out he's been pulling all this out of his ass?

 

[AlphaWolf]

Same thing he always does. Pull more.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The semiaccurate guy reminds me a lot of Harold Camping. What will he do when people find out he's been pulling all this out of his ass?

Take a holiday on all the ad revenue this story generated?

 

[MarkoIt]

Usually Charlie is .. well, semiaccurate.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Usually Charlie is .. well, semiaccurate.

Yeah Charlie has been wrong and has misunderstood things in the past, but I don't recall him just fabricating news out of thin air just to get hits. I'd say this news has some merit at the least.

 

[almighty]

How do you guys think the sub-system and such will be layered out this time around?

PS3 is very much like a PC with separate memory pools for RAM and VRAM, GPU that is pretty much identical to a PC GPU, Heck if you take Cell out and chuck in a desk top quad core it would be a PC...

360, Unified memory, Custom CPU, And Xenos with it's EDRAM is nothing like anything seen in PC.

Do you think they'll use the same architecture and sub-system layout as PS3/360 or follow the design of a PC?

Microsoft have used the unified memory design for the last 2 generations, Will be interesting to see if they'll use it a 3rd time in a row.

On the opposite side of the fence separate memory pools played havoc with porting things over to PS3, So could Sony go unified?

 

[TheChefO]

How do you guys think the sub-system and such will be layered out this time around?

PS3 is very much like a PC with separate memory pools for RAM and VRAM, GPU that is pretty much identical to a PC GPU, Heck if you take Cell out and chuck in a desk top quad core it would be a PC...

360, Unified memory, Custom CPU, And Xenos with it's EDRAM is nothing like anything seen in PC.

Do you think they'll use the same architecture and sub-system layout as PS3/360 or follow the design of a PC?

Microsoft have used the unified memory design for the last 2 generations, Will be interesting to see if they'll use it a 3rd time in a row.

On the opposite side of the fence separate memory pools played havoc with porting things over to PS3, So could Sony go unified?

Sony seems to be taking dev qualms seriously (finally).

I'd bet that ps4 will have a unified memory space, better dev tools at the start, and in whatever other ways possible, the CPU will be easier for devs to pull performance from.

 

[babybumb]

Microsoft confirms Dave Cutler, father of Windows NT, now working on Xbox

By Mary Jo Foley | January 18, 2012, 12:53pm PST
Summary: Dave Cutler, the father of Windows NT, is now working on helping Microsoft evolve Xbox beyond a game-centric console.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft...ler-father-of-windows-nt-now-working-on-xbox/

This thing is years away.. and thats a good thing. Publishers dont want it now and gamers wont tolerate just a small bumb in graphics. It needs to be a major overhaul in everyway. You cant deliver that for a good price until 2013-14 at the soonest.

 

[almighty]

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft...ler-father-of-windows-nt-now-working-on-xbox/

This thing is years away.. and thats a good thing. Publishers dont want it now and gamers wont tolerate just a small bumb in graphics. It needs to be a major overhaul in everyway. You cant deliver that for a good price until 2013-14 at the soonest.

See this is why stopped being a console gamer, I miss the days when a games console was just that, A games console.

That's why I love my 3DS, It just a simple device that plays games and doesn't try to be a ful fledged PC or media machine.

Even if they stick a 12 month old high end PC GPU of yesteryear you're still talking 5x the raw performance.

 

[TheChefO]

... You cant deliver that for a good price until 2013-14 at the soonest.

False.

28nm can deliver a >10x increase in overall performance above and beyond ps3/xbo360 within the same die area as the launch versions and 28nm is shipping, now.

 

[almighty]

False.

28nm can deliver a >10x increase in overall performance above and beyond ps3/xbo360 within the same die area as the launch versions and 28nm is shipping, now.

How do you get to 10x the performance? A 7970 is only 8-9x the performance and that is super high end?

 

[TheChefO]

How do you get to 10x the performance? A 7970 is only 8-9x the performance and that is super high end?

I'm not sure how you're getting 8-9x ... I'm pretty sure the HD5xxx series was already around 10x Xenos/RSX.

Tahiti Pro/XT is 352mm2 ... leaving ~148mm2 for the CPU in a 500mm2 budget.

 

[almighty]

I'm not sure how you're getting 8-9x ... I'm pretty sure the HD5xxx series was already around 10x Xenos/RSX.

Tahiti Pro/XT is 352mm2 ... leaving ~148mm2 for the CPU in a 500mm2 budget.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1613139&postcount=9182

7970 is equal to a GTX 590.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Last time I checked 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16

Your comparisons are like you say "pretty" rough and 7970 is not equal to GTX 590 unless heavily overclocked, except in some situations where memory plays a big role.

 

[almighty]

Last time I checked 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16

Your comparisons are like you say "pretty" rough and 7970 is not equal to GTX 590 unless heavily overclocked, except in some situations where memory plays a big role.

Oops

Not so much memory, But scaling and TMU limitations

A 7970 level GPU isn't going to happen anyway, I reckon around half of that due to power and heat issues, So say 8-10x the performance?

Take 2x off for running at native 1080p and you'll still be left with 6-8x the power left over for graphic improvements?

That is a nice jump, Coupled with modern DirectX 11's compute shaders and other added efficiencies and developers would have a very nice upgrade in power.

The one thing that consoles WILL need is monster tessellation performance!

 

[TheChefO]

...A 7970 level GPU isn't going to happen anyway...

I wouldn't bet against that.

As I said, 352mm2 @ 28nm. That leaves plenty of room for a CPU in a reasonable 450-500mm2 budget.

I wouldn't expect the same clock speed, or ram bandwidth, but other than those two, there isn't a good reason, NOT to expect a 7970-class GPU. Unless MS/Sony decide to invest more on the CPU side, but I think with Tesla and GCN, we'll see more die budget going toward the GPU than last gen.