Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Rangers]

I agree. Because I dont think next consoles (I tend to always discuss next box but it could be either really) are coming until at least fall 2013. Heck the HD 8000 series should be out in late 12, and the HD 9000 series in late 13 perhaps.

So basically something like a mid-high HD9000 could equal the 7970 performance with lower power consumption etc, and go in a console.

Possibly, who knows.

 

[MarkoIt]

How do you get to 10x the performance? A 7970 is only 8-9x the performance and that is super high end?

It's kinda of pointless to do a comparison based only on raw specification. Both Fermi and GNC offer much more than just being a lot faster than RSX/Xenos architecture.
Just looking to new tech that are just scratching the surface of what next-generation could look, and you will see that the leap is going to be noticeable (Frostbite 2, TriAce Engine, UE3 DirectX11.. and many other demos).

Giving what Mark Rein and Sweeney had stated, I'm expecting they will show the first bits of Unreal Engine 4 at GDC 2012. Maybe behind closed doors, but they said they want to be ready at least a year before the next-generation will be out. This means a fall 2012-spring 2013 launch for UE4, for a fall 2013 launch. So, it shouldn't be that long until we will see how next-generation will look.

 

[almighty]

I agree. Because I dont think next consoles (I tend to always discuss next box but it could be either really) are coming until at least fall 2013. Heck the HD 8000 series should be out in late 12, and the HD 9000 series in late 13 perhaps.

So basically something like a mid-high HD9000 could equal the 7970 performance with lower power consumption etc, and go in a console.

Possibly, who knows.

Problem being is that they have to make specs and start building prototypes within the next 12 months in order to make a 2013 launch, Maybe sooner so they can't wait for the next next generation PC cards to come out.

Heck if truth be known 720 and PS4 specs are more then likely already set in stone, Rumours of a 7000 series GPU inside 720 and you can bet PS4 will have something similar.

If rumours are true that 720 will be out next year then surely Microsoft would have to show something of 720 at this years E3? In that case they can't be using some kind of mid range future 8000 series GPU but rather a mid range 7000 GPU.

 

[MarkoIt]

I wouldn't bet against that.

As I said, 352mm2 @ 28nm. That leaves plenty of room for a CPU in a reasonable 450-500mm2 budget.

I wouldn't expect the same clock speed, or ram bandwidth, but other than those two, there isn't a good reason, NOT to expect a 7970-class GPU. Unless MS/Sony decide to invest more on the CPU side, but I think with Tesla and GCN, we'll see more die budget going toward the GPU than last gen.

Yes there is. Power. Even at low-frequency, that kind of GPU will consume 200W or more.

I agree. Because I dont think next consoles (I tend to always discuss next box but it could be either really) are coming until at least fall 2013. Heck the HD 8000 series should be out in late 12, and the HD 9000 series in late 13 perhaps.

So basically something like a mid-high HD9000 could equal the 7970 performance with lower power consumption etc, and go in a console.

Possibly, who knows.

We have already discussed on the matter, and the odds are low, because around fall 2013 - spring 2014, 20nm is expected to be ready and running .. but enough for launching a console? The odds are high for a peformance-class chip. Probably the successor of Pitcairn, but I don't expect a big increase in performance, since they share the same process.

 

[Rangers]

Problem being is that they have to make specs and start building prototypes within the next 12 months in order to make a 2013 launch, Maybe sooner so they can't wait for the next next generation PC cards to come out.

Heck if truth be known 720 and PS4 specs are more then likely already set in stone, Rumours of a 7000 series GPU inside 720 and you can bet PS4 will have something similar.

If rumours are true that 720 will be out next year then surely Microsoft would have to show something of 720 at this years E3? In that case they can't be using some kind of mid range future 8000 series GPU but rather a mid range 7000 GPU.

Ehh, there have been so many rumors about next box so far and all wrong. Why care too much about the latest?'

And I always assumed for the reveal, that it will be revealed at e3 13 if it releases fall 13.

And dont forget as has been pointed out, 360 dev kits used a X800, significantly less powerful than what was in the final. So if Charlie says HD7000 is in Xb720 dev kits, even if it was true, it doesnt lock anything down.

With Xenos MS literally pushed it to the last second before it was finished, and had aspects of AMD tech that didn't hit for 2 years more. I doubt they'll do that again, but using a GPU series that came out in late 2011 just seems way too early for me. We're losing perspective. It would have been like Xbox using something from 2003...

We have already discussed on the matter, and the odds are low, because around fall 2013 - spring 2014, 20nm is expected to be ready and running .. but enough for launching a console? The odds are high for a peformance-class chip. Probably the successor of Pitcairn, but I don't expect a big increase in performance, since they share the same process.

True enough, but i think there's a good chance, maybe 40%, you dont see 720 until 14. If so 20nm is then a possibility.

 

[Gerry]

If rumours are true that 720 will be out next year then surely Microsoft would have to show something of 720 at this years E3? In that case they can't be using some kind of mid range future 8000 series GPU but rather a mid range 7000 GPU.

Why? Did they do that with the 360?

 

[almighty]

Why? Did they do that with the 360?

You expect them to possibly launch next year without showing anything off?

 

[TheChefO]

Yes there is. Power. Even at low-frequency, that kind of GPU will consume 200W or more.

It's 250W ... currently.

This on the initial run of a brand new 28nm process.

...and running at 925MHz.

If we assume linear power/MHz (it isn't), that brings the wattage down to <162W at 600MHz.

 

[TheChefO]

You expect them to possibly launch next year without showing anything off?

I expect MS will launch the same year they reveal.

The sales are too strong to chance ruining them by announcing a nextgen console more than a year away.

It would be foolish.

 

[Gerry]

You expect them to possibly launch next year without showing anything off?

History would suggest that it's entirely possible.

 

[bkilian]

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft...ler-father-of-windows-nt-now-working-on-xbox/

This thing is years away.. and thats a good thing. Publishers dont want it now and gamers wont tolerate just a small bumb in graphics. It needs to be a major overhaul in everyway. You cant deliver that for a good price until 2013-14 at the soonest.

We've been joking that if we want to get something controversial checked into the tree, we just have to wait for Cutler to leave his machine unlocked and check it in from there. No one would question a Cutler checkin.

 

[TheChefO]

We've been joking that if we want to get something controversial checked into the tree, we just have to wait for Cutler to leave his machine unlocked and check it in from there. No one would question a Cutler checkin.

aaaaand link removed.

bkilian, what's your take on the Apple 2013 console?

That would certainly make for some interesting influences on nextgen hardware ...

 

[pjbliverpool]

How do you get to 10x the performance? A 7970 is only 8-9x the performance and that is super high end?

It's waaaaayy more than 8-10x.

7970 has >17x more raw shader performance and almost 15x the texture fill rate. And that's not taking into account the massive efficiency advantages which could probably add another 50% on top of those raw figures.

On paper probably the smallest advantage the 7970 has over Xenos is geometry throughput at "only" 3.7 times more. But I'm willing to bet that thanks the the new geometry focussed design and DX11 Tesselator this is actually one of it's largest advatages with real world throughput way in excess of 10x greater than Xenos.

 

[KULTKILRZ]

History would suggest that it's entirely possible.

That being the case next-gen launch may be more about timing than anything else..

That contributed to the xbox360 success. Giving that away in this industry is "Here today gone Tommorrow" With the next best thing.. Fans will turn on you!

 

[almighty]

It's waaaaayy more than 8-10x.

7970 has >17x more raw shader performance and almost 15x the texture fill rate. And that's not taking into account the massive efficiency advantages which could probably add another 50% on top of those raw figures.

On paper probably the smallest advantage the 7970 has over Xenos is geometry throughput at "only" 3.7 times more. But I'm willing to bet that thanks the the new geometry focussed design and DX11 Tesselator this is actually one of it's largest advatages with real world throughput way in excess of 10x greater than Xenos.

But until we know what GPU it has got people need to stop comparing and talking about the 7970.

The chances in my eyes of the consoles having a 7970 or a GPU of equal power are slim.

 

[Rangers]

It's 250W ... currently.

This on the initial run of a brand new 28nm process.

...and running at 925MHz.

If we assume linear power/MHz (it isn't), that brings the wattage down to <162W at 600MHz.

Doesn't underclocking save more than linear on power usually? I think so, overclocking certainly usually causes a greater than linear increase. Also underclocking would go hand in hand with undervolting. And again, a 7970 has most things a console does on it already (EG, RAM).

If the box has a 250 TDP instead of 200, reasonable, we're in range.

Of course it's all pointless as I'm sure it wont specifically feature a 7970 (most likely).

 

[TheChefO]

Doesn't underclocking save more than linear on power usually?

Indeed.

That's why I said, "not linear" and "<162W. @ 600MHz"

Not to mention there are other parts of the design which could be streamlined for console use.

If the console is dropping on 28nm, I fully expect a 7970 class ~300-400mm2 GPU (modified for console use).

 

[Rangers]

I would expect less than 7970 if it's actually a 7XXX. Maybe more 7950-ish at best.

That's the absolute highest end and retails for $500 after all (granted that isn't the cost).

If it's not a 7XXX but something from Sea Islands or higher, then it could be something with 7XXX class performance, or conceivably maybe even better.

But in either scenario a 7970 is out.

 

[almighty]

I would expect less than 7970 if it's actually a 7XXX. Maybe more 7950-ish at best.

That's the absolute highest end and retails for $500 after all (granted that isn't the cost).

If it's not a 7XXX but something from Sea Islands or higher, then it could be something with 7XXX class performance, or conceivably maybe even better.

But in either scenario a 7970 is out.

Rumours are that 720 is using a 7000 series GPU.

7970 - Too expensive, Too hot, Too power hungry
7950 - Possibly Too expensive, Still too hot, Still too power hungry
7870 - Maybe too expensive, Maybe cool enough, Maybe doable consumption
7850 - Priced right? Should run cool, Should run on a single PCIEX plug

7850/7870 are the perfect choices, The 7900 series are just too much in terms of cost, heat and power requirements.

 

[bkilian]

aaaaand link removed.

bkilian, what's your take on the Apple 2013 console?

That would certainly make for some interesting influences on nextgen hardware ...

Still there: http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft...ather-of-windows-nt-now-working-on-xbox/11684

Dunno why the last link fails, it also looks good.

As to Apple launching a console, I wouldn't put it past them. The Apple TV just hasn't performed in the same class as their other products, and introducing a gaming console might be a way to get more consumers interested and get Apple into the living room.

If you had said Google, I'd have laughed, but Apple gets platforms and with the number of games already on iOS they have a ready-made developer base. They could be a strong competitor in the space.