Well, the 500 GB drive should hold at least 10 games and I doubt I'll have more than that on the go at any one time...
But it's not going to last long with Digital Media (Films, TV, Music, Video), DLC, Digital Only games, and all the extra stuff that the OS will needlessly fill the HD with.
I seriously hope they allow all media to be stored externally and that there is a sensible limit on the external drive size.