NPD October 2008

[RancidLunchmeat]

Nothing in that article says anything about 750k. He doesn't mention sales numbers at all.

No, but it does contain two interesting statements.

The first that Sony claims LBP to be a flagship title that will move hardware, so we can end that debate in this thread as to whether or not this title was another that Sony was attaching hopes and dreams to.

The second that Sony believes LBP sales will 'have a long tail' which, IMO, is a nice way of backing off the first statement.

PR speak is always interesting, if rarely relevant or accurate. I didn't find a 750k number in that article, either.

 

[tha_con]

So you guy's really don't think they shipped 750K copies of LBP world wide?

I find it hard to believe otherwise if it SOLD 200K in the US in 7 days... there really is no reason to doubt that they SHIPPED 750K world wide. None what so ever.

 

[RobertR1]

750k shipped seems reasonable. Aside from Japan, it's also being bundled throughout Europe. I wish we'd get non bundle sales figures as it's easy to spot how well a game sells on it's own. Games such and Forza 2/Motorstorm/Marvel: Ultimate Alliance and others get skewed sales numbers due to bundles. I'm quite sure NPD atleast keeps software vs bundle sales separate. Not sure about the others tracking firms for EU and Japan.

 

[tha_con]

750k shipped seems reasonable. Aside from Japan, it's also being bundled throughout Europe. I wish we'd get non bundle sales figures as it's easy to spot how well a game sells on it's own. Games such and Forza 2/Motorstorm/Marvel: Ultimate Alliance and others get skewed sales numbers due to bundles. I'm quite sure NPD atleast keeps software vs bundle sales separate. Not sure about the others tracking firms for EU and Japan.

Yea, I'm positive NPD keeps software v bundles separate. I think EU territories do as well, because there is no hard way for them to report that kind of information. The only other number we can go off of is "shipped" from the Developer / Hardware company (Sony, MS, Nintendo).

When it's all said and done, I think LBP will have shipped at least 2 Million copies world wide, between software and bundles. For a project with a team of 20+...that certainly isn't anything to scoff at. Being worried about LBP at this point is a little premature. The big concern for me with LBP is how long the hardcore community will stick with it. The casuals will likely die off and beat the SP, never touching anything else, but the hardcore are what will make the game shine over the next 6 to 12 months. That will define the possibility for a second entry into the series.

 

[scooby_dooby]

When it's all said and done, I think LBP will have shipped at least 2 Million copies world wide, between software and bundles. For a project with a team of 20+...that certainly isn't anything to scoff at. Being worried about LBP at this point is a little premature.

I don't think too many people are 'worried' about LBP, but this is a franchise that many people in this forum where praising as the next big thing, a AAA title, the title that will turn the tide for the PS3 among casuals...and it's obvious already that that is not going to happen. Some people even positioned LBP as a title that would counter Gears of War 2 (not naming names)....

So, on it's own merits it's probably going to be a success, but it's not going to do what many people in the Sony camp had wished, and argued, that it would.

I'm not surprised, as I always felt this was a title that was too hardcore to appeal to the masses, despite it's cute graphics the concept is just not accessible or appealing enough for the mainstream.

 

[obonicus]

I don't think too many people are 'worried' about LBP, but this is a franchise that many people in this forum where praising as the next big thing, a AAA title, the title that will turn the tide for the PS3 among casuals...and it's obvious already that that is not going to happen. Some people even positioned LBP as a title that would counter Gears of War 2 (not naming names)....

I always thought LBP could be sold as a big thing, I'll admit it, though I've always qualified that it'd depend on Sony doing it right, which I still don't think they've done (maybe the marketing campaign will prove fruitful, but Sony has shown itself quite capable at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory). I still think it's early to call it; we're acting like October is March, and not just for LBP, for all titles listed. These are most of the holiday heavyhitters.

 

[tha_con]

Honestly, it's the library of titles that have always sold Sony's systems.

LittleBigPlanet is a AAA game, it is the next big thing. Just because it didn't push consoles into the homes of yuppy millionaires or teenage girls doesn't negate those facts.

Also, while it may not match Gears 2 sales wise, I certainly think it's a significantly more interesting and engaging title.

 

[Vic]

Honestly, it's the library of titles that have always sold Sony's systems.

LittleBigPlanet is a AAA game, it is the next big thing. Just because it didn't push consoles into the homes of yuppy millionaires or teenage girls doesn't negate those facts.

Also, while it may not match Gears 2 sales wise, I certainly think it's a significantly more interesting and engaging title.

Gears is an interesting example to compare against, because really I dont see it as a game that sold to many outside the 360 hardcore userbase.

In any case, seeing how LBP is being pushed so hard in bundles, I expect a significant rise in sales over the Christmas period. Didnt Resistance and Motorstorm sell 3m each over an extended time period?

 

[tha_con]

Yes, Resistance and Motorstorm "sold" considerably well ove ran extended period of time, but that was almost entirely due to Bundles across Europe and North America.

 

[Scott_Arm]

LittleBigPlanet is a AAA game, it is the next big thing. Just because it didn't push consoles into the homes of yuppy millionaires or teenage girls doesn't negate those facts.

I'm not sure I understand what this means.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Yes, Resistance and Motorstorm "sold" considerably well ove ran extended period of time, but that was almost entirely due to Bundles across Europe and North America.

Bundles are always weird because you can't really tell if people are buying it for the game included or if they just want the console and the game happens to come with it.

I'd say in the case of the Halo3, Metal Gear 4 and Wii (Sports or Play) bundles, it's the software that's pushing the sale. The rest of the time, I'm not so sure.

 

[tha_con]

I'm not sure I understand what this means.

You'll have to forgive my brash generalization of the Wii Userbase. I'm just saying, because they system doesn't sell to the casual gamer looking for something cutesy or buying the console / game for their granchild because it looks innocent and fun, doesn't suddenly mean it's not AAA or the next big thing. It just means that it's forward progress that isn't recognized by the casual gamer.

IMO, of course.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Can you actually have AAA games that don't move hardware?

 

[Nesh]

Yeah

 

[AntShaw]

Why does a AAA game have to move hardware? That would solely be dependent upon where in the life cycle of the console the title was released.

 

[dobwal]

You'll have to forgive my brash generalization of the Wii Userbase. I'm just saying, because they system doesn't sell to the casual gamer looking for something cutesy or buying the console / game for their granchild because it looks innocent and fun, doesn't suddenly mean it's not AAA or the next big thing. It just means that it's forward progress that isn't recognized by the casual gamer.

IMO, of course.

I think your personal definitions of "AAA" and "next big thing" don't coorelate with the overall board's general definition of those two terms.

 

[dobwal]

Why does a AAA game have to move hardware? That would solely be dependent upon where in the life cycle of the console the title was released.

True, but a "AAA" branding of a title is ultimately determine on how well it can move itself, if nothing else.

Every game that is highly endorsed by the press and gamers isn't a AAA title and every game that sales well isn't neccessarily branded AAA either.

Usually it takes a game being highly embraced by the press and gamers that ultimately results in a enormous amounts of sales. If Gears, Halo, MGS, GT or FF recieved all the critical praise that they recieved to date but this only resulted in a fraction of their actual sales, its highly doubtful that any of these game would be branded "AAA".

 

[patsu]

I don't think too many people are 'worried' about LBP, but this is a franchise that many people in this forum where praising as the next big thing, a AAA title, the title that will turn the tide for the PS3 among casuals...and it's obvious already that that is not going to happen. Some people even positioned LBP as a title that would counter Gears of War 2 (not naming names)....

The LBP presentation does appeal to the casuals, but the gameplay only appeals to existing gamers. I don't know what AAA means but LBP does open up new possibilities for Sony as a community and placement platform. There are many possibilities but the developers have mentioned that their current focus is to ship the game "as is" and they have done just that.

As for pitching to casuals, that audience have other things in mind now (The worsening recession). Without a good price point to match, it would be hard to get them to spend for a $399 entertainment system, with or without LBP.

As a community play, I believe their challenge now is to retent the current base and sustain the growth. The easiest way to tackle the dynamics is to bundle the game and continue to simplify the tools. Let the creators pull their social networks in. Make money via add-ons and placements. But as I said, Sony's goal is to become profitable asap. Launching a community is a marketshare game initially. Until they recouncil this difference internally, they may get stucked in a limbo. They have to go all the way or not start at all (to conserve resources for other stuff).

If they continue to choose profitability, then they will have to rely on LBP's natural growth to sell the basic title. It is usually a 1-2 year cycle while the LBP community churns and gathers. There is no freebies/giveaways here to jumpstart like a dotcom play. In my view... without bundling, they may have to wait for the hardware price drop _and_ a breakthrough in the user tools to come back -- unless the current user base surprises me by producing amazing levels frequently enough.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Can you actually have AAA games that don't move hardware?

No one title rarely if ever results in anything more than a temporary spike in sales, "AAA" or otherwise. For a real, permanent shift in growth, something has to happen that significantly changes the overall consumer perception of the console. It is very, very rare for an individual game to do that...the only example I can think of is Nintendogs. And LBP sure as heck wasn't going to be the next Nintendogs.

 

[grandmaster]

Can you actually have AAA games that don't move hardware?

Why does a AAA game have to move hardware? That would solely be dependent upon where in the life cycle of the console the title was released.

Uncharted: Drake's Fortune is similar to LBP in that it wasn't a huge seller initially, if memory serves. And yet it is clearly a AAA title and a beautiful showcase for the PS3. I'm sure it wasn't a system-seller as such.