NPD October 2008

[catisfit]

I think that if we speak about attach rates, actual PS3 number should be compare to last year xbox one.

If you're speaking of attach rates for the consoles overall then that's true. However, the table I made compares crossplatform game sales in their first month, and how that relates to the install base at the time of release.

Maybe attach rate is the wrong description for my table, but I couldn't think of anything else.

 

[liolio]

If you're speaking of attach rates for the consoles overall then that's true. However, the table I made compares crossplatform game sales in their first month, and how that relates to the install base at the time of release.

Maybe attach rate is the wrong description for my table, but I couldn't think of anything else.

I'm not criticizing the effort you put in this table

I was just saying that it could be even more relevant to compare attach rate as they are base on more games. Between I don't remember where MS was standing last year, I'll search if I find something I'll edit my post

 

[Cheezdoodles]

What interests me most is that on Eurogamer's Most Wanted list, LBP was topping it with about 430 votes neck and neck wth Fable 2. It'd be interesting to see how representative those Most Wanted lists are.

430 votes on a gaming site is hardly representative of anything. Even if LBP sells alot you cannot make the connection between the most wanted list and the sales, the amount of votes is just far to low to get anything with statistical meaning, not to mention that the votes themselves aren't exactly a proper random sample.

 

[liolio]

Ok I found a pretty interesting article on gamasutra in regard to attach rate.
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=20988

 

[Arwin]

LBP is down to 19th place in the all format list in the UK now, unfortunately. However, as a single platform game, that's not actually as bad as it may look and may just reflect that right now tonnes of games are being bought on every platform. It's still above multi-platform Mirror's Edge, for instance, and if I look on www.play.com then LBP is in 2nd place on PS3 behind World at War, and the 80GB PS3 bundle that has Quantum of Solace, LBP, Batman Begins BluRay, and the remote is in 8th. Will be interesting to see how LBP does over the holidays. It's well-timed for Europe, with enough time to pick up some buzz for the holidays, but we'll see - there are a lot of PS3 gamers who are more into shooting and kicking stuff. There really is a lot of competition, and none of my colleagues have picked this game up yet - I'm hoping that at least those with kids will though.

 

[Nesh]

I'm not criticizing the effort you put in this table

I was just saying that it could be even more relevant to compare attach rate as they are base on more games. Between I don't remember where MS was standing last year, I'll search if I find something I'll edit my post

Something about the attach rates, considering that the 360 had a year head start and the fact that both the PS3 and the 360 sell at similar rates, isnt it natural that attach rates on the 360 would be a bit higher than PS3's especially in the US? Many 360 users are much "older" than those of the PS3 and their library was increasing before the PS3 was released. Some 360 titles that increase the attach rate could be quite old games bought a long time ago.Currently the PS3 has an attach rate that is around 5+ despite the library was limited for quite some time. Thats similar to what the 360 had a year ago and people considered it pretty high.

 

[fearsomepirate]

What interests me most is that on Eurogamer's Most Wanted list, LBP was topping it with about 430 votes neck and neck wth Fable 2. It'd be interesting to see how representative those Most Wanted lists are.

Polls by gaming magazines are rarely indicative of sales. Consider the audience. The question is whether people who don't vote in game magazine/website polls are interested in it. That is the audience that has made Wii a huge success. Early sales numbers suggest that no, they aren't. A recommendation by a "Gadget Show" isn't going to do much, either.

 

[catisfit]

A recommendation by a "Gadget Show" isn't going to do much, either.

The Gadget Show is an hour long show which runs at primetime on one of the five terrestrial channels in the UK. It gets over a million viewers (around 1.3m-1.4m IIRC).

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Polls by gaming magazines are rarely indicative of sales. Consider the audience. The question is whether people who don't vote in game magazine/website polls are interested in it...

I understand that (and other's points). What I'm wondering is if as a population of gamers, there is any correlation for Most Wanted counts and game sales counts? Did Halo3 have way more Most Wanted votes than any other game? I suppose no is the answer . There are too many other, non-voting people buying titles to have any correlation, as people say.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

I understand that (and other's points). What I'm wondering is if as a population of gamers, there is any correlation for Most Wanted counts and game sales counts?

The point is that even if it does have some correlation, the correlation is not of any statistical value. The sample is far to biased.

Thus, you cannot make any reasonable predictions based on those correlation values. Therefore its completely pointless to measure this, even thought its very easy to measure something like this if somebody knows the amount of sales for a couple games.

To give you an example of this, if check for correlations between how many times i have to pee per day vs how the stock market does, it will have some correlation. Still, using the variable of % change in how many times i pee a day to predict % change in stock market is ridiculous.

I suppose no is the answer

it undoubtely does have some correlation, after all, 0,0000 correlation is practically impossible to find. Even if two events are are totally random from eachother, correlation measures would pick up something.

Not only that, but simple logic would suggest that the most hyped titles are usually ones with the biggest marketing effort and hype+marketing = the biggest sales, and the titles that have the most hype rank high on most wanted lists.

 

[dobwal]

Something about the attach rates, considering that the 360 had a year head start and the fact that both the PS3 and the 360 sell at similar rates, isnt it natural that attach rates on the 360 would be a bit higher than PS3's especially in the US? Many 360 users are much "older" than those of the PS3 and their library was increasing before the PS3 was released. Some 360 titles that increase the attach rate could be quite old games bought a long time ago.Currently the PS3 has an attach rate that is around 5+ despite the library was limited for quite some time. Thats similar to what the 360 had a year ago and people considered it pretty high.

The 360 reached an attachment rate of 5.2 games per console within its first year with a library of 160 titles. The PS3 is about its two year old birthday with attachemnt of ~5.6 with a library of like 350 titles.

Is the 360's high attachment rate due in part of an earlier release? It is highly likely and that year headstart allowed MS to attract a core userbase thats hungrier for software.

Im not sure of the current LTD of hardware and software sales of the 360 or the PS3, but ~20 mil 360 with an attachment rate of ~8 titles and ~15 mil PS3 with an attachment rate of ~5.6 means while the 360 userbase is only 33% bigger then the PS3 userbase, it has consumed 100% more software titles.

The year head start was big but it also helps that MS has basically hit a homerun every holiday season with key releases. Looking at the tie in ratios of individual multiport titles is informative. However, those ratios don't readily describe how the 360 sku versions of Fallout 3, COD5, AC, R6:V and other 3rd party titles are competing in enviroment where MS's first and second party titles (Halo3, Gears 1&2, Fable 2 and Mass Effect) are chewing through hundred of millions of dollars in disposable income of the 360 userbase during the later and most important part of every year.

 

[tha_con]

Again, I hardly think that the first 7 days of sales are indicitive of the games success / failure.

I also think it's a bit premature to start reflecting on the games longevity based on these sales. That is going to be determined by the community, not the folks who bought it in the first 7 days.

I think it will be better to judge the sales and community, say, 6 months from now, rather than less than a month after it's been released. That's my take, at least.

 

[DrJay24]

However, those ratios don't readily describe how the 360 sku versions of Fallout 3, COD5, AC, R6:V and other 3rd party titles are competing in enviroment where MS's first and second party titles (Halo3, Gears 1&2, Fable 2 and Mass Effect) are chewing through hundred of millions of dollars in disposable income of the 360 userbase during the later and most important part of every year.

How is this different than with every console ever made?

 

[dobwal]

How is this different than with every console ever made?

Its not different in terms of third party devs having to deal with first and second party offerings. But the PS3 sku of Fallout 3 isn't facing a holiday season competing against first and second party PS3 titles with a level demand equivalent to a Gears 2 or Fable 2. Neither did the PS3 sku of COD4 and AC have to deal with a PS3 equivalent version of Halo 3.

Basically every holiday season the average 360 and PS3 gamer is eating a equivalent slice of multiport pie. Now if you assume they both have the same appetite, you would be wrong. Why? Because, when examing the content of their stomach you will notice that 360 gamer has on average eaten alot more 360 exclusive pie then the PS3 gamer has eating PS3 exclusive pie.

I would also bet that the tie ratios favor the 360 more heavily when looking at lesser known or crappier titles.

 

[RobertR1]

Again, I hardly think that the first 7 days of sales are indicitive of the games success / failure.

I also think it's a bit premature to start reflecting on the games longevity based on these sales. That is going to be determined by the community, not the folks who bought it in the first 7 days.

I think it will be better to judge the sales and community, say, 6 months from now, rather than less than a month after it's been released. That's my take, at least.

So how does this work? If LPB had some roaring out of the gates, then it'd be very clear that about it's success and we'd be see "told you so...." comments but seeing that it didn't exactly the world on fire, the talk is now about legs? Selling 200k out of the game and then another 200k over the holiday still leaves you behind had your opening been stronger! I'm sure Sony rather sell 400k+ upfront and then let the "legs" develop as they may.

Yes, we will be here to see how things unfold but what's clear from the numbers provided is that LBP had just decent sales. It failed to stamp it's authority as one of "the" games to have this holiday season. CoD5 and a few other games will easily blow it away in sales. At the end of the day, it's about results, not effort. Initial results have been disappointing and from a sales perspective, LBP will just be another PS3 title released. Not "the" PS3 title released.

The community on such a game is catered towards enthusiasts. Enthusiasts who get a thrill from making levels. These are the people who've been aching for the full game for ages and are the ones who buy it at launch. The community for this game isn't going to be anything broad as it'd be for a popular shooter. Even many hardcore gamers don't have any interest in making a level. For the masses, the SP portion of the game is the game. They might download a level here but that's about it. And if the SP is difficult as many have eluded to, then it becomes a difficult word of mouth sale for casuals.

 

[tha_con]

So how does this work? If LPB had some roaring out of the gates, then it'd be very clear that about it's success and we'd be see "told you so...." comments but seeing that it didn't exactly the world on fire, the talk is now about legs? Selling 200k out of the game and then another 200k over the holiday still leaves you behind had your opening been stronger! I'm sure Sony rather sell 400k+ upfront and then let the "legs" develop as they may.

Yes, we will be here to see how things unfold but what's clear from the numbers provided is that LBP had just decent sales. It failed to stamp it's authority as one of "the" games to have this holiday season. CoD5 and a few other games will easily blow it away in sales. At the end of the day, it's about results, not effort. Initial results have been disappointing and from a sales perspective, LBP will just be another PS3 title released. Not "the" PS3 title released.

The community on such a game is catered towards enthusiasts. Enthusiasts who get a thrill from making levels. These are the people who've been aching for the full game for ages and are the ones who buy it at launch. The community for this game isn't going to be anything broad as it'd be for a popular shooter. Even many hardcore gamers don't have any interest in making a level. For the masses, the SP portion of the game is the game. They might download a level here but that's about it. And if the SP is difficult as many have eluded to, then it becomes a difficult word of mouth sale for casuals.

Sorry, maybe you have mistaken someone elses past post as my own? I don't think I've ever posted up sales expectations for thi sgame, or a prediction that it would do phenomenally. Perhaps you're thinking of someone else.

I'm just saying that the judgements made in this thread, thus far, are premature. If the game sells 1 Million copies world wide, Media Molecule will have done well, and a fair amount of those users will be interested enough to make some good levels.

 

[liolio]

Nesh did you read the gamasutra article I linked?

 

[Nesh]

Nesh did you read the gamasutra article I linked?

I took a look on every page and saw some highlights. Didnt have the time to read it thoroughly

 

[Richard]

I am going to pose a serious question here, no trolling or anything. Do you guys think Sony should throw in the towel a bit early (ala MS last gen) for the PS3 and jumpstart the next gen early? PS3 is pretty much in a bad situation right now. It will not come even close to half of what PS2 did. How about a PS4 in 2010 or early 2011?

I would suggest (first caution, then ->) you start a new thread about that, perhaps using NDP numbers and from other regions. If, however, the october NDP numbers *prompted* that thought I would first like to suggest that, in my view, October sales hardly ever matter to the make or break of a console. Regardless, do some groundwork and post a balanced and objective (as much as possible) view with your arguments (for/against); hopefully we can prevent/delay a fan-person showdown. :|

 

[liolio]

Something about the attach rates, considering that the 360 had a year head start and the fact that both the PS3 and the 360 sell at similar rates, isn't it natural that attach rates on the 360 would be a bit higher than PS3's especially in the US? Many 360 users are much "older" than those of the PS3 and their library was increasing before the PS3 was released. Some 360 titles that increase the attach rate could be quite old games bought a long time ago.Currently the PS3 has an attach rate that is around 5+ despite the library was limited for quite some time. That's similar to what the 360 had a year ago and people considered it pretty high.

Ok sorry Nesh, I think I misunderstood your post in the first place.
Yes I agree that there are explanations behind the number whether we consider attach rate or sales of specific games (new IP, old IP, "ex" exclusive).
In regard to the numbers themselves, gamasutra made a graph with aligned launch which do a capture of the situation 23 months after launch (basically the Ps3/wii now and the 360 last year), the ps3 is around 5 the 360 slightly more than 6, that's more than 20% , numbers have to be take carefully (especially as we speak of millions of owners impact is decoupled).

Anyway MCorbo made some nice calculations in regard to attach rate in a dedicated thread. It would be may better for the one interested to continue the discussion in this thread:
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=47813&page=3
The datas he put on the table are interesting and finer.