NPD March 2011

Rangers said:
Anyway, comparing a launch to any normal period of sales is completely ridiculous. Launch is a period of the most pent up demand.
Click to expand...

For games sure there's a fairly limited window of opportunity for most games.

But for console hardware it's hardly unusual for console sales to increase after launch. X360 is certainly selling far more per month than it was in it's first year after launch for example. Wii as well greatly increased sales in following months versus launch. PS3 and PS2 as well.

Yes for the first full 30/31 days of sales the 3DS obviously won't be hitting 100k per day otherwise that would be an absolutely ridiculous 3 million per month. But that doesn't discount the fact that it is currently quite handily outselling the DS. And that after 30 days worth of sales it should handily surpass 30 days worth of DS sales. Whether it surpasses the first 30 days of DS launch sales is up in the air, but I have a feeling it could.

Regards,
SB
 
dobwal said:
The DS launched during Black Friday week and sold 500k of a 550K allotment during first week at $149.99 while the 3DS launched on national "Joe" day and sold 400-440k during its first week at $249.99. Tell me why I shouldn't be impressed with 3DS?
Click to expand...

Nobody really knew what the DS was. The 3DS is the successor to a system with unbelievable sales.
 
Silent_Buddha said:
For games sure there's a fairly limited window of opportunity for most games.

But for console hardware it's hardly unusual for console sales to increase after launch. X360 is certainly selling far more per month than it was in it's first year after launch for example. Wii as well greatly increased sales in following months versus launch. PS3 and PS2 as well.

Yes for the first full 30/31 days of sales the 3DS obviously won't be hitting 100k per day otherwise that would be an absolutely ridiculous 3 million per month. But that doesn't discount the fact that it is currently quite handily outselling the DS. And that after 30 days worth of sales it should handily surpass 30 days worth of DS sales.

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...


All majorly supply limited around launch...3DS isnt.
 
I also have to point out that in the DS case I believe the PSP was launched first and it had garnered a significant level of industry support due to the PS2 as well as sharing in a lot of the buzz surrounding Playstation in general at the time and the 3DS is a virgin launch in that it launched first before any other competitors in a new generation of handheld consoles and ought to be benefiting from the DS/Wii popularity boom of the past few years.
 
Rangers said:
All majorly supply limited around launch...3DS isnt.
Click to expand...

And they were all supply constrained in their 2nd year? As well as the 3rd year? And the 4th year?

I believe both the X360 and PS3 are having their best sales years so I'd hardly call all previous years supply constrained.

If a console is good the sales per month should continue to go up versus previous years as your game diversity grows until it reaches a point where people are tired of it and looking for something else. That's regardless of whether or not it was supply constrained at launch.

Which still doesn't do anything to discount that the 3DS is currently outselling the DS both compared to launch numbers and compared to current numbers. And that's considering the DS didn't have a lower cost alternative to itself that it was competing against at launch.

Regards,
SB
 
Rangers said:
Nobody really knew what the DS was. The 3DS is the successor to a system with unbelievable sales.
Click to expand...

The DS was the successor of the gameboy and from the king of handhelds. The DS was hardly an unknown, it was just that no one knew off the bat that it would garner the sales it has achieved. Thats like saying nobody really knew what the PS2 was.
 
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Squilliam said:
I also have to point out that in the DS case I believe the PSP was launched first and it had garnered a significant level of industry support due to the PS2 as well as sharing in a lot of the buzz surrounding Playstation in general at the time and the 3DS is a virgin launch in that it launched first before any other competitors in a new generation of handheld consoles and ought to be benefiting from the DS/Wii popularity boom of the past few years.
Click to expand...

The DS launched before the PSP
 
liolio said:
Honestly I would not be surprised if the 3DS doesn't that well in the long run. Two screens no longer cut it and I would bet they have a significant impact on power consumption. Power pretty much dictate what one can put together in the mobile space. The 3Ds performances sucks and nobody with a decent smartphone won't fail to notice.
The NGP is a way more interesting product on many accounts and especially critical ones like "what does it bring to gameplay" => touch screen, back touch pad (+ std controls). The 3DS bring nothing new 3D aside which has been already qualified as gadget by many website.
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It is an expensive machine though. I can see it being a bit of slow-burner - above average sales perhaps for the first year, but potentially very big sales after that.

Software is key obviously, but it's too soon to right it off.
 
Cant believe still no PS3 hardware. Not getting one of the big 3 consoles number for the first time, this is a nightmare :p
 
Silent_Buddha said:
And they were all supply constrained in their 2nd year? As well as the 3rd year? And the 4th year?
Click to expand...

Huh? I was replying to a post of yours that noted those console sales increasing over launch. But all those consoles were supply limited at launch. So of course sales increased.

I guess you can clearly say 3DS launch was a failure compared to Wii, then. Which is probably most what I'm comparing it too. Not selling out at launch is pretty rare To me it's like Nintendo is expected to be like Apple, instant sellouts and short supply for months. 3DS has been readily available from day one.

Which still doesn't do anything to discount that the 3DS is currently outselling the DS both compared to launch numbers and compared to current numbers.
Click to expand...

Where? apparently the "correct" NPD numbers have the DS outselling the 3DS. One bloomberg report has it reversed, but a GAF sales maven says the bloomberg report made a mistake (and I have a feeling he probably has access to NPD to know for sure). The correct numbers are most likely 460k DS and 400k 3DS. Both the bloomberg and GAF reports have total DS sales at 860k, so it's an error somewhere. But it seems 460k DS 400k 3DS is correct not the bloomberg report which states 440k 3DS and 860 k total.

And how do you know 3DS is outselling DS compared to launch? I thought it was 500k DS launch?

Thats not even accounting for, is Nintendo even planning to continue supplying DS? Are they still advertising it? 3DS outselling DS will be a no brainer if not. 3DS is the successor to DS and as such DS will be phased out.
 
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Silent_Buddha said:
If a console is good the sales per month should continue to go up versus previous years as your game diversity grows until it reaches a point where people are tired of it and looking for something else. That's regardless of whether or not it was supply constrained at launch.
Click to expand...

That assumes that the market doesn't saturate, and generally the manufacturers have to work hard with price drops, redesigns, new peripherals, bundles and so on to keep the sales going. That said, in the past, what we call successful consoles have managed this quite well.

But it also means that judging the success of a console is very difficult before a few years has passed. Will the 3DS be able to increase its sales rate over the next three years like its predecessor? We just don't know, but assuming it will follow the same curves as the DS isn't really justified. I live in a region where the 3DS launched the 25 of March, and I can already buy it used at two thirds the price, and the shops aren't sold out. And that is a bit remarkable given the 150 million DSs sold.
I believe 2012 (after this years Christmas holiday) is the earliest we can say anything of where 3Ds sales are heading.
 
Rangers said:
Where? apparently the "correct" NPD numbers have the DS outselling the 3DS. One bloomberg report has it reversed, but a GAF sales maven says the bloomberg report made a mistake (and I have a feeling he probably has access to NPD to know for sure). The correct numbers are most likely 460k DS and 400k 3DS. Both the bloomberg and GAF reports have total DS sales at 860k, so it's an error somewhere. But it seems 460k DS 400k 3DS is correct not the bloomberg report which states 440k 3DS and 860 k total.
Click to expand...

460k divided by 31 = ~14.8k per day. 400k divided by 4 = ~100k per day. I'd say that is handily outselling the DS during the first 4 days it was tracked for March.

Really, are you that obtuse that you keep ignoring that simple fact? Do you really think it is going to sell less than 460k in its first 31 days of sales?

If DS outsells 3DS for April, I'll join in with the whole disappointing launch things, but to characterize it as disappointing going by 4 days worth of sales is incredibly shortsighted or just grasping at straws for a reason to call it a failure when it certainly is anything but.

And how do you know 3DS is outselling DS compared to launch? I thought it was 500k DS launch?

Thats not even accounting for, is Nintendo even planning to continue supplying DS? Are they still advertising it? 3DS outselling DS will be a no brainer if not. 3DS is the successor to DS and as such DS will be phased out.
Click to expand...

Hard to tell, and I'm not about to spend too much time looking it up. But it sold 1.36 million units in the US/Canada/Mexico from Nov. 21 - Dec. 31 of 2004. (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2005/050126e.pdf#page=6 ) I'm assuming Nintendo doesn't really sell in S. America or that would be even more countries.

So 1.36 million across 3 countries in 41 days. That ~500k units for the DS was for roughly 10 days worth of sales.

3DS is currently at ~400k in 1 country in 4 days. Is it possible it hits 500k in 10 days? I'd say there's a good chance. Is it possible that in US, Canada, Mexico (has it launched in Mexico?) it will hit 1.36 million or more in 41 days? I'd say it's certainly possible.

Regards,
SB
 
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