I think LBP and Pinata simply prove that Sony and Microsoft just don't 'get' the mainstream games market in the same way that Nintendo does. Both are titles geared towards an audience away from their core markets, and yet both possess gameplay mechanics or features that the mainstream market doesn't understand or isn't attracted to.
In my view...
It's not just the mechanics. Relevance plays an important part too. My wife won't be bothered with a hi-tech toy unless it's relevant to her lifestyle. BrainAge, WiiFit, WiiSports, NintendDogs all serve a need that an average consumer can relate to, and they can see the fun in the mechanics immediately (Thanks to the well-done advertisements). Wii also has novelty, new level of usability, and reasonable price point to spur impulse buy.
LBP looks fun and very cute (to most people) but is generally not useful to people's lives... other than interactive entertainment. The user-generated content part is too difficult for consumers (daddies, kids) right now and there is no motivation for people to get involved other than self expression. Where self expression is concerned, the audience is limited and copyright restrictions tend to linger in creators' mind.
The whole user-generated content thing strikes a chord with the core gamer, but for the mainstream user who probably doesn't even connect the PS3 online, it's a total non-starter.
LBP fills an important gap. It can sell based on visual/presentation alone (if the price is right).
Depending on which direction Sony takes it, LBP has the potential to build a following for them due to the user tools and consumer-level open platform. It is like the early days of Flickr, they attracted and sustained the interest of professional and amateur photographers in the hundred thousands. But once they were able to address the photo storage needs of everyone, their growth exploded.
Both of these games are core titles with 'casual' cosmetics and nobody is fooled.
You'll likely see people going for LBP plushies. The user tools in LBP makes it open-ended and different from other games.
On the plus side, as word spreads, I'm sure the longevity of LBP will be better than many games, but I think it's safe to say that it's not a system seller and won't 'break' PS3 out of its core audience - just as Pinata failed in this regard on 360.
That's because the LBP launch title only delivered the vision halfway. In its first release, MM created a relatively open platform around end user tools. This is the unique selling point of LBP at the moment.
Unfortunately, LBP's built-in platforming levels are like old platforming games. The user tools are not part of the process. Co-op authoring will help but without a mission or purpose-in-life, it may be hard to rally the crowd ("Save the Pluto" is not relevant or interesting to people).
For its current base, Sony should continue to make it worthwhile for creators to make LBP "worlds". LBP competitions are merely short term, tactical moves.
I feel that Sony can do a few things to complete the LBP picture:
* Focus and may be generalize on a layperson's needs (e.g., education and interaction between users, family website publishing and sharing, family photo album creation and sharing, school presentation/projects creation and sharing, animated postcards) and make the process entertaining for the creator and its audience.
* Simplify the user tools further, like using camera imports to create animated objects.
* Make the end product (at least parts of it) accessible by everyone in the world, including those without LBP.
Then, bundle LBP with PS3 or lower the console price.
Oops, this post should probably go into the LBP thread.
EDIT: MM, make it easy to search for the (good) levels. It's important for sharing.