Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[MrFox]

If TSMC can reach volume production in 2019 for 7nm EUV (I think that's their most recent statement), I wouldn't expect a large console SoC to be reasonable before late 2020.

Are we off topic? Now that we have a mid-gen SKU, next gen is getting really interesting. Maybe we can start a real next-gen prediction / expectations / wishes thread?

 

[egoless]

Scorpio games held back to remain compatible with Xbox One's eSRAM. Brad Wardell expounds to gamingbolt.

http://gamingbolt.com/stardock-ceo-...an-take-care-of-xbox-one-compatability-issues

Everyone can now safely rally on that headline.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Scorpio games held back to remain compatible with Xbox One's eSRAM. Brad Wardell expounds to gamingbolt.

http://gamingbolt.com/stardock-ceo-...an-take-care-of-xbox-one-compatability-issues

Lot's of different words in that article that mean different things that seem to be used interchangeably: "parity", "compatibility", and "backwards compatibility". These are all different, and coming from a CEO that doesn't seem to be fully aware of the hardware specs of the XB1, I'm not sure how much weight we should give them. What is MS's official statement on Scorpio VS XB1 integration?

 

[MrFox]

Doesn't seem like a big problem. If MS never exposed the esram directly in the API, they can skip the memory copy operations on scorpio in a BC or "boost" mode, and they can use much bigger buffers and everything else in native mode. They can still have a fail safe mode for problematic games and just map the esram, since they now have more bandwidth than the sum of DDR3 and ESRAM. They would have planned this when they made the original XB1 API.

 

[function]

Just treat it like a faster PS4/PS4 Pro.

Developers are already mighty experienced with not having the esram.

 

[Osamar]

Put a 32MB L3 into the SoC. Probably not as fast as ESRAM, but with GDDR5 main ram, not problems to emulate the XboxOne.

 

[mrcorbo]

Scorpio games held back to remain compatible with Xbox One's eSRAM. Brad Wardell expounds to gamingbolt.

http://gamingbolt.com/stardock-ceo-...an-take-care-of-xbox-one-compatability-issues

Everyone can now safely rally on that headline.

Of the differences in hardware between Xbox One and PS4, the memory architecture is not the FIRST thing that comes to mind to explain the differences in performance between the two systems....

 

[goonergaz]

The problem with this is that the progress of technological innovation isn't happening at an even pace, so keeping to a set schedule like that doesn't really work. I think the PS4 Pro and Scorpio were enabled by the process shrink making them viable and the platform holders being willing to break the existing paradigm to take advantage of it. Who knows how long it will be before the stars align to the degree that a new "generation" of products makes sense again? Especially since the mid generation upgrades were, IMO, also enabled by the original products being timed poorly relative to the progress of the technology behind them (not timed poorly according to the market, obviously).

I'm not sure it needs to, with a 4 year gap between each console for both parties there will be a reasonable performance improvement (IMHO) and if the price is right then why not

 

[ProspectorPete]

If Xbox Scorpio does not have Zen, would it have been better to release in Q1 2018?

 

[BRiT]

If Xbox Scorpio does not have Zen, would it have been better to release in Q1 2018?

Same hardware but released later, or upgraded to Zen hardware in1H 2018?

 

[mrcorbo]

I'm not sure it needs to, with a 4 year gap between each console for both parties there will be a reasonable performance improvement (IMHO) and if the price is right then why not

I don't believe the optimal time for Sony to launch new hardware will ever be that far different than the optimal time for MS to launch new hardware from a technological standpoint, so I don't see them ever differing by more than a year or so. Both will be looking for inflection points in hardware capabilities where there is both a reasonable increase in capability over the prior product and a reasonable gap until the next comparable advance. Sony and Ms are very likely to arrive at the same conclusion as to where these inflection points are given that they are trying to produce similar products with the same building blocks available to them.

 

[rokkerkory]

If Xbox Scorpio does not have Zen, would it have been better to release in Q1 2018?

No sense if 4k 30fps can be had with upgraded jaguar+

 

[ProspectorPete]

Same hardware but released later, or upgraded to Zen hardware in1H 2018?

Upgraded to Zen hardware

No sense if 4k 30fps can be had with upgraded jaguar+

If 4K30 that was their only goal (bot attainable due to native 4K requiring more than 6TF, as MS itself has stated in manuals, saying checker boarding would be preferred), then would it have been better to launch in Q4 2016? (With P4Pro-like specs, but going with a 480 clock speeds and improved cooling)

 

[Jay]

If 4K30 that was their only goal (bot attainable due to native 4K requiring more than 6TF, as MS itself has stated in manuals, saying checker boarding would be preferred), then would it have been better to launch in Q4 2016? (With P4Pro-like specs, but going with a 480 clock speeds and improved cooling)

Your mixing up Sony and Ms.
MS never said that "6tf wasn't enough, and checker boarding is prefered."
In a leaked white paper, they did give other options if a dev doesn't want to use all the power to do native 4k though.
At most that demonstrates that there is no mandated native 4k, which is in line with what they actually said from the start.

Also it's not as simple as just taking the raw tf number, when your measuring across different gen/ip.
Example, what 4pro can do at 4.2tf is different than what a ps4 could do if it was just clocked at 4.2tf, e.g rpm, buffer id.

 

[ProspectorPete]

I was merely talking about the middle generational upgrade thing, as opposed to potentially falling a year behind in the future console race, a move which cost Sony literally billions in the previous generation.

 

[dobwal]

I think we can safely assume that the PS5 won't launch next year.

Who says we won't see a PS4 Super Pro or a Super Duper Pro after that?

 

[goonergaz]

I was merely talking about the middle generational upgrade thing, as opposed to potentially falling a year behind in the future console race, a move which cost Sony literally billions in the previous generation.

I think it was more than just releasing a year later that cost Sony billions! I suggest the R&D cost for PS3 (and all that money lost on the cell), also the fact PS3 lost substantial money per unit and the high retail price meaning low sales to begin with (along with arrogance from Sony) were bigger contributing factors. People will always wait for their preferred console of choice (especially just a year later).

 

[Michellstar]

I think it was more than just releasing a year later that cost Sony billions! I suggest the R&D cost for PS3 (and all that money lost on the cell), also the fact PS3 lost substantial money per unit and the high retail price meaning low sales to begin with (along with arrogance from Sony) were bigger contributing factors. People will always wait for their preferred console of choice (especially just a year later).

Yep, X360 didn´t sell gangbusters that year, but when people realized that was on par (if not better) than the competition, and was cheaper overall. It became the lead platform for core gamers (cod, madden, etc). Despite all of this, PS3 outsold Xbox in Europe.

Fast forward to this gen, and it´s not magic the outcome... What Ms execs were thinking??

 

[ProspectorPete]

I know a lot of people (myself included) that did not want to wait for 1 year (in Europe it was closer to 1.5 year btw), Xbox 360 became the main platform for a lot of developers early on, they were able to secure a lot of deals by releasing earlier (higher market share and so on). better optimised games, previous exclusives going multiplat (also definitive edition, tech wise) meant a lot of people did not upgrade to or wait for PS3.
Releasing at the same time would have changed the situation quite a bit. PS3 would still have cost a lot to develop, and also to produce, but in the long run it could have meant potentially every Xbox One ever sold until now of extra market share for Sony (+22 million), and as such; miss billions of $$$.

 

[goonergaz]

I know a lot of people (myself included) that did not want to wait for 1 year (in Europe it was closer to 1.5 year btw), Xbox 360 became the main platform for a lot of developers early on, they were able to secure a lot of deals by releasing earlier (higher market share and so on). better optimised games, previous exclusives going multiplat (also definitive edition, tech wise) meant a lot of people did not upgrade to or wait for PS3.
Releasing at the same time would have changed the situation quite a bit. PS3 would still have cost a lot to develop, and also to produce, but in the long run it could have meant potentially every Xbox One ever sold until now of extra market share for Sony (+22 million), and as such; miss billions of $$$.

Well I know a lot of people who waited for the PS3 because they had PS2 and wanted to keep in the worlds most popular ecosystem that promised 'true HD' and backward compatibility than move to a failed console brand that didn't...there was also 'the cheapest ever bluray player' going for it. Hell the X360 was technically so far behind (in consumer eyes) it didn't even have HDMI.

Price was a much bigger factor I can assure you...then after the poor launch of PS3 (and sales picking up on X360) the other factors came into play...but I believe if Sony had released at a competitive price (and not gone down the exotic hardware route) then X360 wouldn't have sold half as well.

BTW, the EU launch was delayed quite late in the day (2/3 months from launch IIRC) so if you'd wait a year what's a few months.

FTR I always thought the price was a red herring, I worked in retail and people didn't understand that buying the core was a complete rip with their overpriced proprietary add-ons - with the PS3 offering pretty much 'everything compatible' and if you planned to use things like HDD, WiFi (both pretty essential last gen) the PS3 was actually quite a reasonable proposition...