Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[Deleted member 11852]

If the Xbox one and PS4 were generationless releases of the Xbox 360 and PS3, they would of been released around 2009 with the Scorpio and the Pro releasing around 2013. We would all talking about the imminent release of the pro's and scorpio's predecessor right now.

Actually they wouldn't have because there was no way that 80x86 in 2009 could have run PowerPC code of just a few years before. That's an inherent limitation of generationless, you're more or less locked into evolutionary technologies and not revolutionary technologies that are fundamentally incompatible for your launch timetable.

The problem with that analogy is that the PS3/X360 generation was ~7-8 years. What if it had only been 3-4 years? The "next generation" comes out and they have to be supported for another 3-4 years. And so PS3/X360 would have gotten game support for 6-8 years.

But to both of your points, I repeat (with some minor edits) a subsequent post I made that epitomises the bleak situation gamers will face in a generation less system and how having to support the lower tier performance envelope will hold us back.

With more and more processing tasks moving to GPUs from CPUs it's advances in GPUs that are most likely going to impact (or limit, given their absence) complex gameplay systems. Scorpio could throw 1.8Tf (the entirely of PS4's theoretical maximum GPU performance) at physics calculations, AI or other complex systems, and still throw more than a PS4 Pro's worth of performance at graphics. But that game would never run on Xbox One. So that won't happen until Xbox One is mothballed in 4-5 Years time, even though Scorpio will be capable of it at launch. As a gamer, that sounds a shitty scenario.​

If Microsoft propose having short generationless cycles of performance tiers then consumers will need some assurances that their hardware is still going to get that traditional 5+ years of support and that support needs to be mandated by Microsoft. Otherwise nobody is going to buy into a generation two years after launch for 1-2 year of support, ending when the next console arrives. If the console manufacture guarantees such support they inherently limit groundbreaking games that could only run on the new hardware.

Fundamentally it's taking the decision about when to drop support for older console tech away from the developer and publisher. It's worth noting that Sony's current PS4 Pro development policy of "no additional features" on Pro would have prevented EA from publishing Shadow of Mordor on PS4 with the Nemesis antagonist system because PS3 and 360 couldn't cope with this.

This issue is a problem and dilemma and somebody is going to lose and I think the people who will lose are those people who like to buy new technology and see it used ASAP. Their games will be hamstrung by the older version of the console. You'll only ever see your console used to it's fullest years after it launches and not because of a learning curve but because of an arbitrary publication policy. Generationless sounds great in theory and the idea of taking my games to my next console is great, but blurring the lines between generations creates a lot of problems.

 

[goonergaz]

To me the main point of these mid-gen consoles is just a matter of simple cost calculation. So far, in the later years of the console cycle it was a cost-cutting war where nobody wins. With these new attempts better graphics fidelity is an added premium just like a DLC content with relatively better cost margin for manufacturers. New console buyers had the only option of buying the cheapest, leanest console before, now they can buy the latest and the greatest version of hardware (with fatter, more loose revenue margin), which will lead to better hardware revenue, it’s very natural that most of new buyers tend to want the latest version they can obtain unless it’s prohibitively expensive. Hardware manufacturers wanted it to happen before this generation but it was not possible, now it’s possible with x86 and the fastest selling hardware. It’s a natural conclusion derived from economic reasons.

This made me think of another issue. There is clearly a market that wait for a particular price point (let's say £150) - if the Scorpio comes in at £450 and MS don't cut prices (cutting XBO would hurt the Scorpio potentially as the price gap would be massive) then what might happen is you'd actually hurt sales. Conversely Sony seem to be running along the usual lines of making PS4 as cheap as possible and even the premium machine is relatively well priced. Also, I think you'll find even with the cost cutting it's those console that make money and (of course) will increase software and live/psn sales so even more profit.

 

[Jay]

This made me think of another issue. There is clearly a market that wait for a particular price point (let's say £150) - if the Scorpio comes in at £450 and MS don't cut prices (cutting XBO would hurt the Scorpio potentially as the price gap would be massive) then what might happen is you'd actually hurt sales. Conversely Sony seem to be running along the usual lines of making PS4 as cheap as possible and even the premium machine is relatively well priced. Also, I think you'll find even with the cost cutting it's those console that make money and (of course) will increase software and live/psn sales so even more profit.

no way xbo will hit £150, £199 is usually the impulse purchase price for consoles, so anything under that they should be good.
big price gap isn't such a big problem, if anything small price gap is.
because it makes it harder to differentiate the two products.
although it may sound like I think the Scorpio can land at any price point that's not the case.
I just believe that the initial phase of the roll out they can sell for higher than what people think the mainstream gamers would except. Mainly because that's not who it's aimed at.
after the first 6-12 months can lower price to start to attract a broader market.
it all comes down to how well they can promote and show difference between machines to make it a compelling purchase. Obviously cheaper they can bring it out for the better, but if they skimp on the quality and performance to hit cheap price that could hurt it much more in the long run.
can reduce price, but can't improve performance after launch.

 

[goonergaz]

no way xbo will hit £150, £199 is usually the impulse purchase price for consoles, so anything under that they should be good.
big price gap isn't such a big problem, if anything small price gap is.
because it makes it harder to differentiate the two products.
although it may sound like I think the Scorpio can land at any price point that's not the case.
I just believe that the initial phase of the roll out they can sell for higher than what people think the mainstream gamers would except. Mainly because that's not who it's aimed at.
after the first 6-12 months can lower price to start to attract a broader market.
it all comes down to how well they can promote and show difference between machines to make it a compelling purchase. Obviously cheaper they can bring it out for the better, but if they skimp on the quality and performance to hit cheap price that could hurt it much more in the long run.
can reduce price, but can't improve performance after launch.

IMHO this is only true when you're talking about new generations. Let me put it another way, man walks into store
"I'd like an Xbox console please"
"is that the XBO or Scorpio"
"erm, what's the difference?"
"one is half the price of the other but the graphics aren't as good"

As I've stated previously, after 12 months Sony could start making noises about PS5 which might dampen sales "we have started making the worlds first next gen console substantially more powerful than Pro bringing in a new generation of gaming experiences blah blah"

I know what you mean about the closer price, but of course they should be closer because the difference isn't one gen to another. XBO is already around the £200 mark so I fully expect it to drop as it's not selling as well as PS4, it will need to.

I wonder if there's data to show units sold at what price, be interesting to see.

 

[Jay]

IMHO this is only true when you're talking about new generations. Let me put it another way, man walks into store
"I'd like an Xbox console please"
"is that the XBO or Scorpio"
"erm, what's the difference?"
"one is half the price of the other but the graphics aren't as good"

As I've stated previously, after 12 months Sony could start making noises about PS5 which might dampen sales "we have started making the worlds first next gen console substantially more powerful than Pro bringing in a new generation of gaming experiences blah blah"

I know what you mean about the closer price, but of course they should be closer because the difference isn't one gen to another. XBO is already around the £200 mark so I fully expect it to drop as it's not selling as well as PS4, it will need to.

I wonder if there's data to show units sold at what price, be interesting to see.

£250, £220 in some sales from what I've seen.
your gonna have to show me where can pick it up for £200 from, that's a really good price!

they said it themselves, that's not the market their after.
person going into shop, will be going in knowing what Scorpio is and wanting that.
they said it's for people who knows what a tflop is and understand the difference graphically between the two. If you don't understand the difference between the x1s and Scorpio, it's probably not for you right now.

you keep talking mainstream, people being confused, when that's not who it's for to begin with.
you may question how big that market is, if that market is only couple hundred thousand to start with, that's what they've aimed at.
there's other benefits to Scorpio like marketing, halo affect, games being demoed on it.
I have know idea how big the market their going for is, but that's what their going for rightly or wrongly.
so I don't really see this confusion your talking about.
someone walks into shop.
what's the difference between x1s and Scorpio?
ones twice the price with lot better graphics especially at 4k.
purchaser - either sees value in the premium product or thinks the cheaper one will do them just fine.
pretty much same decision they have to make with nearly any purchase they make in life.

 

[BRiT]

In the US the One S had been down to $200 in November, December, and February at multiple different stores at different times with different sales (Microsoft, NewEgg, Walmart, Amazon, Target). I don't know if overseas has had similar sales.

 

[Jay]

As I've stated previously, after 12 months Sony could start making noises about PS5 which might dampen sales "we have started making the worlds first next gen console substantially more powerful than Pro bringing in a new generation of gaming experiences blah blah"

Sony could do that we have know idea what their planning.
we also don't know what affect that should have on their own userbase.
if their happy to move into a 2year cycle fair enough.
then ms talks about next Xbox. I'm not sure either wants to get into that.

 

[Jay]

In the US the One S had been down to $200 in November, December, and February at multiple different stores at different times with different sales (Microsoft, NewEgg, Walmart, Amazon, Target). I don't know if overseas has had similar sales.

lowest price was £200(for couple days I believe)-220 in sales during Christmas.
that's why I say standard price, not sales.
I believe they'll get down to £200, £180 in sales etc.

usually dollar to pound ends up being 1 to 1.
do you see it being $150?

 

[goonergaz]

£250, £220 in some sales from what I've seen.
your gonna have to show me where can pick it up for £200 from, that's a really good price!

they said it themselves, that's not the market their after.
person going into shop, will be going in knowing what Scorpio is and wanting that.
they said it's for people who knows what a tflop is and understand the difference graphically between the two. If you don't understand the difference between the x1s and Scorpio, it's probably not for you right now.

you keep talking mainstream, people being confused, when that's not who it's for to begin with.
you may question how big that market is, if that market is only couple hundred thousand to start with, that's what they've aimed at.
there's other benefits to Scorpio like marketing, halo affect, games being demoed on it.
I have know idea how big the market their going for is, but that's what their going for rightly or wrongly.
so I don't really see this confusion your talking about.
someone walks into shop.
what's the difference between x1s and Scorpio?
ones twice the price with lot better graphics especially at 4k.
purchaser - either sees value in the premium product or thinks the cheaper one will do them just fine.
pretty much same decision they have to make with nearly any purchase they make in life.

Shopto have the minecraft bundle for £200, Argos have it instore of £220. It's a real price today, no offers so will only get cheaper.

The confusion I'm talking about isn't related to what you're talking about - I'm talking about the potential scenario people talk about where Xbox had no generational change, so let's say in a couple consoles time you have XBO, Scorpio, Scorpio 2 & S3 - all still being supported, there will be a scenario where games are released but some support all 4 and some will need to drop the others. So this 'xbox family' will become confusing without a clearer seperation (like we have today) - IMHO of course.

I totally get what you say.

 

[goonergaz]

Sony could do that we have know idea what their planning.
we also don't know what affect that should have on their own userbase.
if their happy to move into a 2year cycle fair enough.
then ms talks about next Xbox. I'm not sure either wants to get into that.

It wouldn't to be a 2 year cycle, remember Pro is a premium PS4 - PS4 was released in 2013, Sony talking about PS5 (beginning rumblings in 2018 release in 2019) could be a tactic they might use...which would be a release 3 years after Pro (not 2 anyway). But I only can see that in the unlikely event Scorpio is outselling PlayStation.

 

[Jay]

Shopto have the minecraft bundle for £200, Argos have it instore of £220. It's a real price today, no offers so will only get cheaper.

The confusion I'm talking about isn't related to what you're talking about - I'm talking about the potential scenario people talk about where Xbox had no generational change, so let's say in a couple consoles time you have XBO, Scorpio, Scorpio 2 & S3 - all still being supported, there will be a scenario where games are released but some support all 4 and some will need to drop the others. So this 'xbox family' will become confusing without a clearer seperation (like we have today) - IMHO of course.

I totally get what you say.

Argos in store is cheaper than on site which is £220? (as I said was the low end currently)
that must be an in store sale or something.
I can see it hitting sweat spot of £200 non sale price, but not £150. Maybe once it reaches end of life. But that's just my opinion. gets to a point where your not selling more just loosing more per device.

generationless is really the same situation, people will buy what they think is best based on their budget and value.
or save up etc.
I cant think of the top of my head when people don't have to make such choices when purchasing something.
was gonna say games but even there you can have multiple editions of the same game.
tvs,cars,food,clothes,mobiles,flights, people literally are making those choices every time.

It wouldn't to be a 2 year cycle, remember Pro is a premium PS4 - PS4 was released in 2013, Sony talking about PS5 (beginning rumblings in 2018 release in 2019) could be a tactic they might use...which would be a release 3 years after Pro (not 2 anyway). But I only can see that in the unlikely event Scorpio is outselling PlayStation.

then ms can still release another device and just say, all same ecosystem.
becomes a brutal arms race which I'd be surprised they want.

 

[goonergaz]

Argos in store is cheaper than on site which is £220? (as I said was the low end currently)
that must be an in store sale or something.
I can see it hitting sweat spot of £200 non sale price, but not £150. Maybe once it reaches end of life. But that's just my opinion. gets to a point where your not selling more just loosing more per device.

generationless is really the same situation, people will buy what they think is best based on their budget and value.
or save up etc.
I cant think of the top of my head when people don't have to make such choices when purchasing something.
was gonna say games but even there you can have multiple editions of the same game.
tvs,cars,food,clothes,mobiles,flights, people literally are making those choices every time.


then ms can still release another device and just say, all same ecosystem.
becomes a brutal arms race which I'd be surprised they want.

No, £220 is a standard 'high street' price, hell, even game are selling at that with minecraft and FH2. It won't be long before it drops to £200 on the high street - unless they don't want to sell consoles.

MS can do that, but let's be honest - they are a year behind Sony and trying to push this 'worlds most powerful console' angle, I can't see them releasing another for 3 years and any mention too soon would kill Scorpio and hurt the Xbox brand.

 

[Jay]

No, £220 is a standard 'high street' price, hell, even game are selling at that with minecraft and FH2. It won't be long before it drops to £200 on the high street - unless they don't want to sell consoles.

MS can do that, but let's be honest - they are a year behind Sony and trying to push this 'worlds most powerful console' angle, I can't see them releasing another for 3 years and any mention too soon would kill Scorpio and hurt the Xbox brand.

you can get better deal on ms store, £220, Minecraft, and extra controller I believe may even include an extra game also.
bundling things in to make it a better value proposition is normal especially for Ms.
there's a bottom price that I believe once you reach it the sales won't increase substantially more, you just loose a lot more per device.
if they hit rrp £150 during it's normal life I'd be amazed, not sure 360 and ps3's even hit that during their long life.

so it would hurt the Xbox brand but not sony's?

if Sony does go ps5 full bc, they will still be starting from 0.
before, that wasn't such a problem because all manufactures would be doing same at a similar time frame give or take a year. May not be the case now.

that's a whole different and interesting discussion to have there also.

 

[function]

there's a bottom price that I believe once you reach it the sales won't increase substantially more, you just loose a lot more per device.
if they hit rrp £150 during it's normal life I'd be amazed, not sure 360 and ps3's even hit that during their long life.

360 prices were interesting. The 'Arcade' model briefly dipped under £100 at some UK supermarkets, but then the price gradually crept up. When the 360S launched prices seemed to recover a little more.

We ended the generation with the 4GB usually going for around £130, iirc, and the 250GB normally staying north of £160.

There will be point below which it's uneconomical to reduce prices. Looking at BOM, I can't see how MS could get down to £150 for anything other than Black Friday like attention grabbing deals. Like you say, offering crazy bundles on high margin items like controllers and slightly older software would be a far better way to go.

 

[goonergaz]

In my defense I only threw £150 out there as a suggestion, but logic dictates that prices must lower for sales to continue. Half-way through last gen what were prices (compared to launch)? Today the console is £200 and therefore to maintain sales it will need to drop (unless they are happy with always losing out to Sony and the gap getting bigger).

 

[Jay]

360 prices were interesting. The 'Arcade' model briefly dipped under £100 at some UK supermarkets, but then the price gradually crept up. When the 360S launched prices seemed to recover a little more.

We ended the generation with the 4GB usually going for around £130, iirc, and the 250GB normally staying north of £160.

There will be point below which it's uneconomical to reduce prices. Looking at BOM, I can't see how MS could get down to £150 for anything other than Black Friday like attention grabbing deals. Like you say, offering crazy bundles on high margin items like controllers and slightly older software would be a far better way to go.

I actually forgot about the arcade model.

hdd is compulsory, uhd drive, well now getting into different conversation about dd only model.
if that happened then £150 would be possible Imo.
at £200 they sold like crazy, sales under that should do the same.

In my defense I only threw £150 out there as a suggestion, but logic dictates that prices must lower for sales to continue. Half-way through last gen what were prices (compared to launch)? Today the console is £200 and therefore to maintain sales it will need to drop (unless they are happy with always losing out to Sony and the gap getting bigger).

if your selling at a massive loss then you may be better of loosing market share, can't 'win' at any cost.
I do think last half of the year showed they can be competitive in their strongest regions though.

 

[goonergaz]

so it would hurt the Xbox brand but not sony's?

If MS plan to release a console within 2 years of Scorpio the yes, I'm not sure why you mention Sony - as that's a 3 year gap but will be into a whole new generation off the back of a £350 Pro not a £450 Scorpio. To put it another way, all those buying Scorpio at $550 will feel like they've been kicked in the teeth when a year after launch MS say they're working on Scorpio 2. Not sure why you think that won't hurt MS?

Conversely, Sony releasing 'true next gen' 3 years after a $400 console is a completely different proposition.

 

[powdercore]

I'm not so sure, PS3 showed that BC didn't really matter - like Scorpio it will launch at a very high price and offer BC...and prettier graphics...and...erm? PS3 had new exclusive games and Bluray to help it survive, Sony then cut out BC and did it affect sales negatively? No. PS4 launched with no BC, none at all (not even PS1), it even removed the ability to play audio CDs and has sold quite well.

Just because BC didn't work well for the PS3 does not mean it won't work well with today's technology. The fat PS3 had full hardware support for PS2 games because it essentially had chips from PS2. Sony removed it to save money but added software emulation. Unfortunately, the software emulation was not supported well so it languished.

MS is in a much better position today to offer BC from X360 to the future consoles in the way they architected the software. Everything runs with virtualization. MS created an entire emulation of the X360 operating system running inside the Xbox One operating system. It is only simpler as future consoles are x86-64 and become more powerful. The revolution of the internet is also huge considering that you *don't* even have to own a physical disc to get backward compatible games. If you owned it digitally, then you've it in your library.

The PS4 sold well because it was $100 cheaper and more powerful at release. They didn't have the debacle and backtrack of the 24 hour check-in. They didn't have the debacle of used games sales. MS shot themselves in the feet many times during reveal. Sorry CD playing on a console is archaic that is absolutely not comparable to have backward compatibility of PS3 games on PS4.

 

[goonergaz]

Just because BC didn't work well for the PS3 does not mean it won't work well with today's technology. The fat PS3 had full hardware support for PS2 games because it essentially had chips from PS2. Sony removed it to save money but added software emulation. Unfortunately, the software emulation was not supported well so it languished.

MS is in a much better position today to offer BC from X360 to the future consoles in the way they architected the software. Everything runs with virtualization. MS created an entire emulation of the X360 operating system running inside the Xbox One operating system. It is only simpler as future consoles are x86-64 and become more powerful. The revolution of the internet is also huge considering that you *don't* even have to own a physical disc to get backward compatible games. If you owned it digitally, then you've it in your library.

The PS4 sold well because it was $100 cheaper and more powerful at release. They didn't have the debacle and backtrack of the 24 hour check-in. They didn't have the debacle of used games sales. MS shot themselves in the feet many times during reveal. Sorry CD playing on a console is archaic that is absolutely not comparable to have backward compatibility of PS3 games on PS4.

Well the BC point stands IMHO, the consumer chose cheaper hardware over BC. I find it amusing how people within this thread (not aimed at you) argue that they will just migrate from PS4/Pro because of this power of Scorpio - they can just leave all their old games and play the shinney new ones at 4k. Then they argue that BC is important - seems a contradiction to me.

And before you start stating MS facts about how many hours have been played on BC to try to show me how 'important' it is, don't bother, because you can use any stats to spin any arguement. Also, I should add, this is coming from a previously very vocal BC supporter, I used to think it was essential but in reality the only time I ever used it was the play RDR because I previously only played it on PS3 and wanted to experience the best version one of the best games ever made. Other than that I would much rather a proper remake/remaster like Ico/SotC.

I never doubted that price was key to PS4 selling well, hell it's the whole reason I'm down on Scorpio. MS have just about steadied the ship by undercutting PS4, reversing many of their pre-launch talk and working incredibly hard to please their core fans (BC is part of that). I'm not saying BC isn't important to some, but again, XBO already does it so why pay twice as much?

 

[BRiT]

Red Dead Redemption. 'Nuff said about BC value and need.

Although I do love having over 220 games in my installed games list, even if half of them are X360 games, with 80%+ being the 2 a month Free Games-with-Gold titles.