Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[MrFox]

My criteria for success is if the hardware sales of the platform (slim + mid gen) remains sustainably higher after launch.

Console sales usually start dropping after 3-4 years. Mid-gen must keep sales the same or higher for the next few years, at least more so compared to similar time frame of previous generations.

Upgraders are skewing the data, but only during the launch months, after that it should be representative enough for comparisons.

 

[iroboto]

My criteria for success is if the hardware sales of the platform (slim + mid gen) remains sustainably higher after launch.

Console sales usually start dropping after 3-4 years. Mid-gen must keep sales the same or higher for the next few years, at least more so compared to similar time frame of previous generations.

Upgraders are skewing the data, but only during the launch months, after that it should be representative enough for comparisons.

More or less why I'd like to know MAU metrics as well, if you could get sales and MAUs, you'd know who's upgrading and which customers are fresh.

 

[mosen]

From what we know of PS4 Pro sales this seems completely unreasonable.

I'd hold Scorpio to a higher standard as well, though.

Price is going to be incredibly key of course.

PS4 Pro sales is not representative of Scorpio sale. PS4 Pro reveal wasn't that great and it suffers from poor marketing as a mid-gen upgrade. On the other hand Microsoft constantly talks about Scorpio as the next big thing (the most powerful console, etc.) and while they don't expect it to sell more units than XB1 initially I expect it to replace XB1 as the cheapest Xbox console or base console in the next 3-4 years.

Also MS won't sell Scorpio at constant 400$ price point in the next 3-4 years. Obviously it will have numerous price cuts and offers just like XB1.

 

[ProspectorPete]

Isn't that to be expected at launch of a new system?

To my knowledge PS4 Pro did not outsell PS4 Slim

More or less why I'd like to know MAU metrics as well, if you could get sales and MAUs, you'd know who's upgrading and which customers are fresh.

They should have MAU and NAU; new active users

 

[Shifty Geezer]

To my knowledge PS4 Pro did not outsell PS4 Slim

It was always fairly unlikely to as it was just an expensive PS4 with little justification and marketing - it wasn't much of anew system. But every new platform properly advertised with pent up demand sells a lot on launch. If Scorpio doesn't outsell PS4 at launch, it'll never get a month outselling PS4.

 

[Jay]

It was always fairly unlikely to as it was just an expensive PS4 with little justification and marketing - it wasn't much of anew system. But every new platform properly advertised with pent up demand sells a lot on launch. If Scorpio doesn't outsell PS4 at launch, it'll never get a month outselling PS4.

sounded like they never produced many at launch, how is availability now?
if their still supply constrained, the longer that's the case the less the year headstart will matter.
especially leading up to e3.
then at e3 its upto ms to give compelling reason to jump on board with Scorpio. At that point people may be more than willing to wait.
I'm sure that whoever wants a 4pro must be able to buy it easily at this point now though.

 

[bunge]

I expect Scorpio to outsell the One when the timelines are synced. If One sold 5 mil in its first year, a successful Scorpio will sell 5.1 mil in its first year.

Maybe that's too aggressive of an expectation? That's how I would see it as successful though.

 

[iroboto]

I expect Scorpio to outsell the One when the timelines are synced. If One sold 5 mil in its first year, a successful Scorpio will sell 5.1 mil in its first year.

Maybe that's too aggressive of an expectation? That's how I would see it as successful though.

I think this is reasonable, especially if the goal of MS is to secretly scrub the world of anything Xbox One.

 

[Jay]

I think this is reasonable, especially if the goal of MS is to secretly scrub the world of anything Xbox One.

lot of people seem to have that opinion, I'm not sure, the x1s seems to have sold ok.
x1s is their mainstream device.
Scorpio isn't a next gen machine that is replacing an older device at the end of it's life, it's supplementing a device thats in middle of its life.
it's going to need to sell like crazy to match some peoples expectations, maybe it will be sold at 300

 

[Jay]

how much of a selling point would it be if all games was also being shown at 1400p down sampled to 1080p locked 60, with everything on ultra with higher quality assets?
could even be 1400 dynamic.

how would 1400c look down sampled, if running at 60? The higher frame rate should give it a lot more samples to work with the temporal aspect. Or would it be better to just render at 1080p60 at that point?

I'm a bit surprised 4pro hasn't had more locked 60 games, is it cpu, related?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I expect Scorpio to outsell the One when the timelines are synced. If One sold 5 mil in its first year, a successful Scorpio will sell 5.1 mil in its first year.

Maybe that's too aggressive of an expectation? That's how I would see it as successful though.

Highly doubtful it will outsell first year XBO. It's much like the PS4-P a premium offering meant to boost the image of the console and get higher margins from consumers willing to pay for a bit extra power. What I do expect is that it'll sell better relative to the XBO than the PS4-P does relative to the PS4. This mostly due to the much greater performance differential between the two which I expect will offer either greater performance in games (60 FPS vs. 30 FPS) or better graphics IQ.

By better graphics IQ, that to me encompasses increased resolution, higher graphical settings or a combination of the two. Additionally if they use alternative rendering schemes to achieve a high perceived resolution (like checkerboard rendering) I expect it'll be a combination of resolution with either higher graphical settings or higher performance.

IE - I expect it to offer a more compelling upgrade experience over the base console than the PS4-P does over the PS4. That in turn may entice more people to get it. However, that won't be enough to get everyone interested in an Xbox to get it. The price is still going to be too high for the majority of interested consumers if the base console is still in the market.

Which leads me to...

lot of people seem to have that opinion, I'm not sure, the x1s seems to have sold ok.
x1s is their mainstream device.
Scorpio isn't a next gen machine that is replacing an older device at the end of it's life, it's supplementing a device thats in middle of its life.
it's going to need to sell like crazy to match some peoples expectations, maybe it will be sold at 300

I don't get that feeling at all. What I do get the feeling for is that XBO will become the "budget" Xbox. It's not like the original Xbox which had a very small fraction of the console market and featured hardware that was quite expensive to produce. It used a stock Intel CPU and an NVidia GPU. They had no manufacturing rights to either part and had limited ability to negotiate. NVidia famously (or infamously) declined to reduce the cost of the part to Microsoft, thus hampering their ability to price reduce the console.

It's a completely different situation to XBO, which I fail to see any reason why they'd want to get rid of it. This is further backed up when anything that refers to Project Scorpio refers to it in terms of XBO (Xbox One family of devices).

Unless Project Scorpio is priced at the current price of the XBO, they immediately lose access to the price conscious market greatly diminishing the value of the brand as their market penetration will thus shrink. Especially when the PS4 will still exist, and with no alternative to the base PS4, you'll see more consumer flock to the PlayStation brand.

I don't see Microsoft pricing Project Scorpio to compete with the base PS4, so I find it extremely unlikely that they wouldn't support the XBO for at the minimum another 2 years. My expectation is for another 3-4 years of official support for XBO.

Regards,
SB

 

[mrcorbo]

I think this is reasonable, especially if the goal of MS is to secretly scrub the world of anything Xbox One.

Nothing they have said and done to this point WRT Scorpio makes me believe this is the case. Especially since Phil Spencer has indicated that the Scorpio will be positioned a rung above the Xbox One S SKUs in a contiguous lineup and that current lineup tops out at $399. I still consider $499 the most likely price point with $449 possible (with the rest of the line getting a $50 cut) and $399 unlikely. $499 price points do not make for a mainstream product.

 

[bgroovy]

Their problem is they want to have their cake and eat it to. They're simultaneously trying to convince people Scorpio is basically a new gen while trying to assure current Xbox One owners they aren't being left in the dust. These concepts are literally antithetical so at least one party, if not both, are being misled. People are critical of the way Sony has marketed the Pro, but they've played it perfectly to avoid a backlash while increasing average sale price. Microsoft and its fans are just setting themselves up for disaster by treating Scorpio as the savior of the platform.

Sent from my A1P using Tapatalk

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Their problem is they want to have their cake and eat it to. They're simultaneously trying to convince people Scorpio is basically a new gen while trying to assure current Xbox One owners they aren't being left in the dust. These concepts are literally antithetical so at least one party, if not both, are being misled. People are critical of the way Sony has marketed the Pro, but they've played it perfectly to avoid a backlash while increasing average sale price. Microsoft and its fans are just setting themselves up for disaster by treating Scorpio as the savior of the platform.

Sent from my A1P using Tapatalk

I suppose it might look like that if all you are used to is the console definition of generations where a new generation breaks compatibility with the previous generation. But from Microsoft's standpoint (with it's history in PC), a new generation continues support for previous generations.

In other words there is no contradiction if they were to say X device is a new generation, but Y generation will still get supported and get everything the new generation gets. At least until Y generation is officially deprecated (official end of support).

Microsoft isn't even the only manufacturer to do this. Apple does it as well with every new generation of iOS products. As do Android devices. Each new generation doesn't end support or app compatibility with the immediately previous generation. Consoles are one of the very few markets that still exist where a new generation immediately breaks compatibility with the previous generation.

I, for one, think it would be a fantastic idea if the console world joined the rest of the world in not ditching compatibility with the previous generation when a new generation comes out.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

In other words there is no contradiction if they were to say X device is a new generation, but Y generation will still get supported and get everything the new generation gets. At least until Y generation is officially deprecated (official end of support).

Though true in theory, in execution you can't really have a new console generation and support the old. At least historically it's not possible. Either you gimp the new gen with legacy-hampered software in which case it's not really a new gen, or you outstrip what the old gen can really do and although games release on it, at 20 fps and sub HD or whatever it's not really the same experience. Having both consoles fully active and properly targeted is down to the game devs, not MS. Are they going to embrace a new gen of games as well as still making old gen games, or just use Scorpio as a current-gen target for a while?

 

[Jay]

I don't get that feeling at all. What I do get the feeling for is that XBO will become the "budget" Xbox. It's not like the original Xbox which had a very small fraction of the console market and featured hardware that was quite expensive to produce. It used a stock Intel CPU and an NVidia GPU

Not sure if your agreeing with me or not, but pretty much everything you've said I agree with, and have said so in the past.

Did make me think of the terminology I use at times though.
I say mainstream, but that may not be correct for what I mean, I guess I mean the budget gamer, the gamers that only buy the console when it hits the magic (sub)200 mark. I think there's many of those 'gamers' out there still.
And if ms is able to get the price of the x1s to be at that price point without it being a sale price, without cutting to much into profit of the console.
Then the sales of the x1s will be strong. I don't subscribe to the view that ms wants to kill the x1 and the brand is toxic. Prior to the x1s I can see why people may think that, but I think the x1s has already turned much of that around, and proven so.

I think I have a different view on what constitutes a success for Scorpio though, I don't see it out selling the x1s (due to there's still a lot of those budget gamers out there), regardless of how cheap their able to make scorpio, and I don't think they'll sell it at a loss either.

Another terminology is next gen and new gen.
I think the Scorpio is a new gen machine, not next gen.
Next gen can have full bc, but your not in the same ecosystem, simple basic definition. So less about hardware, more about the software side of things.
New gen, improved hardware, but in same ecosystem, multiplayer games aren't segregated etc.

I've not really gone into the sales threads so I only have general impressions that come out in other threads, but I do think Scorpio could outsell 4pro, whatever the reasons for the 4pro sales, marketing, lack of inventory, whatever the reason.

 

[goonergaz]

I expect Scorpio to outsell the One when the timelines are synced. If One sold 5 mil in its first year, a successful Scorpio will sell 5.1 mil in its first year.

Maybe that's too aggressive of an expectation? That's how I would see it as successful though.

Never. I'd put my house on it (with the current rumored price anyway). this is a niche product aimed at Xbox fans or gamers who have a 4KTV and really must have the best version of any 3rd party game (ie they already own a PS4/Pro or are big xbox fans).

 

[iroboto]

Never. I'd put my house on it (with the current rumored price anyway). this is a niche product aimed at Xbox fans or gamers who have a 4KTV and really must have the best version of any 3rd party game (ie they already own a PS4/Pro or are big xbox fans).

At first my response to bunge was slightly tongue in cheek, but having read the responses perhaps he's onto something.

During the initial time frame I agree, I don't see Scorpio outselling XBO. But if we go with the idea of generationless, XBO will step out of the lineup eventually, its a matter of when and not of if.

I can't speak to the strategy of how this will work out, but if MS is going with generationless, then lifetime sales of Scorpio could surpass XBO around the time when Scorpio becomes the budget system.

As for baking their cake and eating it too, yea, it's what MS is trying to do. Essentially following the PC market which does exactly the same thing. No game completely utilizes a 1080Ti SLI setup. They just have to artificially load the cards up with more and more load to hamper it down.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's possible, but Bunge said in the same time-frame quoting Year One to which goonergaz replied directly.

 

[iroboto]

That's possible, but Bunge said in the same time-frame quoting Year One to which goonergaz replied directly.

I agree.

Price is king. I would suspect 4Pro to follow the same path, but it's lifespan will be cut short as it will exit when PS4 does.