Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

Status
Not open for further replies.
How is it not very same to assume it's at least Vega if not even Vega+?
Xbone and PS4 got GCN2 features (8 ACEs, TruAudio on PS4) + custom features about 6 months before the first desktop GCN2 GPU release and the PS4 Pro got Vega features also ~6 months before the first Vega card will come to the market.
Why assume Scorpio got an older architecture?

Unless AMD decided to give Microsoft the middle finger regarding which architecture they made available for Scorpio (which I find very hard to believe), you can count on the new console bringing the latest and greatest from AMD.
In fact, a much more plausible discussion is if Scorpio is bringing some Navi features.
Not assuming, which is actually why I brought it up. IIRC from earlier posts in this thread a lot of talk has been about FLOPS, but obviously I think there's a lot more to it than just FLOPS.
You and I talked about SM, and whether Scorpio would have it. A big part of that is trying to determine what SM Vega is. To determine that piece would tremendously change the discussion from what is SM6 or a 12.1+ spec actually capable of graphically as opposed to just raw power (which everyone is more concerned about)

I do assume it's Vega, I've never given much thought of it being Vega+

For me the biggest difference between Sony and MS; is that MS works with AMD and Nvidia, Intel etc on the future road map; my assumptions here just looking at SM6 and GCN that a big part of their collaboration helped in some way shape it. I do find it would be hard to believe that Sony would have a better leg up on the hardware advances over MS for this reason. But I don't want to put so much weight into this one possibility and rule out simpler reasons (for 2017 arrival) like just being behind, or trying to scale an older chip is cheaper.

That's where I want to head, I'd like to rule out the simple stuff first before we move into the Vega+ discussion, because I haven't any clue what to expect in Navi, since we don't know the feature set of Vega yet.
 
Not true directly from a someone working for a first party Sony developer talking with me. You can do betterusing fp16 when it is possible(postprocessing for example), dual fp16 if possible need to packed similar fp 16 instruction by group when possible (a GDC conference by Timothy Lottes will give advice to improve performance on Vega architecture and he will talk about the subject). Use the ID buffer for other things than checkerboard rendering and so on...

And the first party will do it later... Now the optimization for PS4 Pro is minimal... And it will probably be the same on Scorpio developer will need some time to improve their game...
now that you mention it, from Vega's papers the performance difference between any kind of float compared to doubles is really huge. That's never going to change in processing, ever. Not a big fan of doubles myself, specially because of memory requirements on smaller devices like phones and so on.

I was used to the original title of the thread, someone might have to start a new Scorpio thread as a refresh.
 
How is it not very safe to assume it's at least Vega if not even Vega+?
Xbone and PS4 got GCN2 features (8 ACEs, TruAudio on PS4) + custom features about 6 months before the first desktop GCN2 GPU release and the PS4 Pro got Vega features also ~6 months before the first Vega card will come to the market.
Why assume Scorpio got an older architecture?
The first GCN2 desktop card to be released was Bonaire, in March of 2013. AMD didn't expose that particular tidbit until later.

The PS4 Pro has Vega features, but as I stated before before I think there's a possibility that its ability to run PS4 binaries natively may mean it has some base features from the PS4.
Some of the press about the Pro said it implemented power-efficiency changes from Polaris (physical IP, discard, compression), but it didn't quite say that the base was Polaris.
 
Sony is writing down $1 billion for the sales decline of packaged media.

Sounds like they would scale back on disc releases, which would affect all disc formats.

May be why they decided not to support UHD Blu Ray on the PS4 Pro.

To be precise, this is Sony Pictures doing the write down and part of that was disappointing box offices for movies like Ghostbusters and Angry Birds, both of which are mentioned in the statement.
 
Because CPU-dependant things are far less scalable than GPU-dependant things, for example, everything(AFAIK) still runs on a desktop version of X1's gpu, but a lot of games simply don't run on even better cpus, than jaguar. In numbers, GPU scale - ~15 times, CPU - ~5, at best, jaguar is at absolute bottom right now, PS5 CPU could be 6 times more powerful, with 4 times, imo, being given.

2-3 years, 2, most likely, since, 7nm Zen(~= full blown 14nm desktop Zen that Scorpio won't have) - check, Na'vi - check, HBM - check, (somewhat)mature techprocess - check, it might be not worth waiting another year(for what?) from a timing perspective, especially if targeting $499, ~190W from the get go.

Right but right now games scale from i7s down to jaguar. Do you believe that Zen will be that much more powerful than current i7s ? Even Zen in 2020 you think will be that much more powerful over an i7 that it simply can't be scaled to jaguar ?

See I think your wrong. I think what you might see is in games like assasians creed you get smaller crowds and maybe zones chopped up a bit more but I still think it will work. After all I can play games on my dual core i5 inside my surface pro 1 with 4 gigs of ram that also run on my r 9 290 and quad core i7 3830 .

Then you go into navi check and hbm check and so what ? Unless your advocateding that Devs will drop all support for the ps4 and ps4 pro the moment scorpio comes out because it has Vega in it and faster arm and more ram and maybe scorpio . You make little sense.

I understand you might want Sony to be this great company that makes the most amazing systems ever but it they will still be bound by tech and the fact that ps5 will start with a 0 install base while the xbox one , ps4 , ps4 pro and scorpio will all have install bases when it comes out.

"Could be" is the key word, i don't see why there would be. "Just slower Zens", but still not up to par(Switch also got Maxwell(or Pascal), but it won't make it run games that run on Titans), that alone screams about how unlikely it is, even if it is possible(think not, i haven't seen anything regarding low-power Zen), post from June that might help to illustrate my logic:

Wait so whats skyrim ? Skyrim runs on titans and runs on switch...... What black magic is this !!!!

Zen requires way more investment, yet doesn't warrant any return at such stage.
Except it does. From what we know of crackdown is that some of it will need the cloud for its destruction. and with zen that might not be needed . WE also see on the pc side that games will still scale with cpu. Take a bulldozer and compare it to a newer core i7 and the bulldozer will fail to keep up in frame rate. So there is a return on investment there if MS wants to hit 4k . If they want to make larger more immersive games with more npcs and so on.

I don't see how, in order to make sure it even works(especially since your version of Scorpio has Zen in it), devs would still have to focus on a PS4/X1 versions first, and why would anyone, other than few select devs even design for Scorpio first anyway? It's infinitely unlikely to ever get larger active paying audience than PS4(P)/X1. There is already millions upon millions in "Zen-based tier", PC gamers, plus i'm not saying everyone would just abandon everything the minute PS5 comes out, i'm saying no one would stop half-way for the reasons already mentioned.

There is always a transition or did you forget all the games that existed on the ps3/xbox360 and xbox one / ps4 ? There will be games that scale across generations. Even games that scale from the switch up to scorpio. And shock the same thing happens on the pc with games that can run on intergrated crappy graphics on 3 or 4 year old laptops and sli titans. I know it may seem amazing to you but this is how it is. Some of those xbox 360 games... they still work and scale very well on multi titan setups .

And as you say there are millions of zen tier pc gamers. For 3rd party devs there are millions of reasons to support zen in the xbox scorpio if it happens. The major one is that by supporting and optimizing for it in scorpio they will see improvements in the desktop and mobile editions of those chips and vice versa . But the other one is that it will be easier to take code that runs on intel core i7 and move it to a zen in scorpio than to a jaguar. There will be less compromises and it will result in better games.



P.S. I'm not interested in arguing, merely expressing my opinion, this situation is all sorts of mind-boggling to me, and while i do go into detail where one can be easily wrong, to illustrate at the core this topic is pretty fundamental and it doesn't change overnight.

well its weird that you would post to a forum in which we have discussions if you don't want to discuss anything and then of course reply to my post.


Look its simple. If Scorpio has zen in it , it will still get supported. Here are the reasons

1) Scorpio will have a user base install advantage over the mythical ps5 . It doesn't matter if it has a year head start or 3 years. Scorpio will still have a lead and we can argue either way about how much but it doesn't change that it will have a lead.

2) Developers want the easiest path . As you say millions of pc gamers have Zen level Cpu setups currently. Zen is closer to intel i5/i7 than jaguar and thus ports will require less compromises and thus less money.

3) MS is going to sell Scorpio for years even after an xbox three hits. MS has reaffirmed there are many more years of support for xbox one and xbox one s just today on twitter. And also Sony isn't stupid either. People will stop buying consoles and more importantly will stop buying mid cycle upgrades if they find they dropped $400 to just get 2-3 years of support out of them. Because it seems to be what your suggesting here.
 
To be precise, this is Sony Pictures doing the write down and part of that was disappointing box offices for movies like Ghostbusters and Angry Birds, both of which are mentioned in the statement.
http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-sony-billion-write-down-20170130-story.html

Seems to be the whole dvd business not just their horrible movies

In a memo to employees, Sony Corp. CEO Kazuo Hirai and Lynton, who will stay with the company for a few months to help with the leadership transition, said the write-down was primarily due to the dramatic downturn in the DVD business. The company lowered its outlook for film profits through 2020, citing declines in DVD and other home entertainment operations.

and its not just a 1 time loss they are adjusting their outlook for the next 3 years

Home entertainment sales declined 7% to $12 billion in the U.S. last year,

This isn't going to change. Netflix / hulu and other services offer just enough imagine quality with a lot of convience that DVD/bluray/uhd bluray wont be able to counter. The physical platform is dead and I really don't see what can bring it back to life. I don't know if this is the right thread for this. I was hopefully they would have skipped uhd-bluray and went for a nand based movie format when 4k was more established. They might still be able too. 128-256 gig sd cards with 200MB/s reads would allow for ultra high bit rates and whole librarys could fit in the space of a few bluray boxes
 
I don't understand the argument regarding Scorpio's CPU arch. Software support isn't solely dependent on hardware tech. Software developers cater to platforms with healthy userbases. So a Scorpio with 16 Zen CPUs and three Vega 10 worth of computing power is not going to have more software support than a Scorpio powered by 8 Tamgouchi cores if the former hypothetically only sold 10 thousand consoles while the later sold 10 billion.

The 360 and PS3 were supported well past 2013 and software support didn't die because Cell and Xenon weren't close to the performance of Orbis or Durango but the fact that the platform owners and game buyers moved on. Who knows how much longer the 360 and PS3 might have prospered if MS and Sony had continued to push those consoles in terms of marketing, price reductions and continued encouragement of software support. Platform owners tend to set their old consoles out to pasture after they release new hardware. But it's not like MS is suddenly going to cease support of Scorpio once the PS5 arrives and there is nothing that says MS won't throw a low priced Scorpio Slim with newer features to maintain enthusiasm in their platform even when a new Xbox arrives.
 
Last edited:
http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-sony-billion-write-down-20170130-story.html

Seems to be the whole dvd business not just their horrible movies



and its not just a 1 time loss they are adjusting their outlook for the next 3 years



This isn't going to change. Netflix / hulu and other services offer just enough imagine quality with a lot of convience that DVD/bluray/uhd bluray wont be able to counter. The physical platform is dead and I really don't see what can bring it back to life. I don't know if this is the right thread for this. I was hopefully they would have skipped uhd-bluray and went for a nand based movie format when 4k was more established. They might still be able too. 128-256 gig sd cards with 200MB/s reads would allow for ultra high bit rates and whole librarys could fit in the space of a few bluray boxes

What does that article has do with physical media other than the author conflating two different Sony operations? When your movies or other studio endeavors arent performing as expected it not only affect your projections of movie ticket sales but also future DVD sales as well as sales and license fees from digital distribution which includes revenue generated from providers like Netflix and cable companies. This is an impairment regarding Sony Pictures, not optical disc sales which would be recorded in another division. And I'm pretty sure Sony isn't erroneously projecting future sales in that area so they don't have to record huge impairments due to being too optimistic.
 
Eastman
Wow, i don't even see the point in replying to another wallpost, since most stuff is in the previous one and only requires your understanding.

But i want to adress this, since it may provide some perspective:
I understand you might want Sony to be this great company that makes the most amazing systems ever
Well, launch PS4 and X1 surely made it seem so.
Essentially, what you're saying is that it's Sony that made a mistake, and a much bigger one, with the release of the Pro, a past-gen system, that will die with PS4, no doubt about that.
Why would they do that if you're right? They didn't know they could do a next-gen or, better yet, "generationless" system just a year later? Did they get arrogant?
 
How is it not very safe to assume it's at least Vega if not even Vega+?
Xbone and PS4 got GCN2 features (8 ACEs, TruAudio on PS4) + custom features about 6 months before the first desktop GCN2 GPU release and the PS4 Pro got Vega features also ~6 months before the first Vega card will come to the market.
Why assume Scorpio got an older architecture?

Unless AMD decided to give Microsoft the middle finger regarding which architecture they made available for Scorpio (which I find very hard to believe), you can count on the new console bringing the latest and greatest from AMD.
In fact, a much more plausible discussion is if Scorpio is bringing some Navi features.

EDIT: a letter

Xbox One didn't get the 8 ACE, volatile bits and the bus onion + from kaveri architecture. From my understanding it was a co development between Sony and AMD. But this time it is different in PS4 Pro the GPU is a mix of Sony IP with the ID buffer and some (all?) Vega feature(AMD IP).

In his Gamasutra interview, Mark Cerny only talk about primitive shaders and dual FP16. Nothing about the the draw stream binning rasterizer....
 
Last edited:
In his Gamasutra interview, Mark Cerny only talk about primitive shaders and dual FP16. Nothing about the The draw streambinning rasterizer's....
Correction, the article mentioned "primitive discard accelerator". This is a Polaris feature. FP16 is a Vega feature.
There’s also a primitive discard accelerator which “improves the efficiency with which triangles that are too small to affect the rendering are removed from the pipeline” and a work distributor, something Cerny says is critical once your GPU gets to a certain size because it functions as “a centralized brain in the GPU that intelligently distributes and load-balances the geometry being rendered.”

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/283611/Inside_the_PlayStation_4_Pro_with_Mark_Cerny.php
 
Correction, the article mentioned "primitive discard accelerator". This is a Polaris feature. FP16 is a Vega feature.


http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/283611/Inside_the_PlayStation_4_Pro_with_Mark_Cerny.php

Exact

“The work distributor in PS4 Pro is very advanced,” he claimed. “Not only does it have the fairly dramatic tesselation improvements from Polaris [AMD’s GPU architecture], it also has some post-Polaris functionality that accelerates rendering of scenes with very small objects. “

I was thinking about this... Not the primitive shaders.
 
Last edited:
Not to be confused with the new Vega has a feature called "Primitive Shaders". This feature is supposed to replace vertex and geometry shader stages, allowing more efficient programmable culling (among other things). We don't yet know how it operates. Have to wait until AMD spills all the Vega details.

It could be huge. Maybe end of 1 to 1 limitation...
 
We know how this has historically played out, platform holders release new hardware and over time the previous generation will receive less support as developers move on and focus on the new hardware capabilities.

Sony has made it clear to anyone actually listening that PS4 and PS4 Pro are fundamentally the same generation, that is both are PS4 hardware and play PS4 games and when support dies from one it will also die for the other. The notion that PS4 Pro will only be 'x' number of years old before Sony offers a PS5 and therefore Sony is screwing consumers is a needful narrative to make MS's timeline good and Sony's anti-consumer. The reality is PS4 Pro should be viewed much like the 360 revision which included HDMI - fundamentally its a hardware revision to an existing platform that attempts to bring the hardware back into sync with emerging TV standards. Additionally PS4 Pro is an option for those who want an improved PS VR experience.

As best I can tell the purpose behind Scorpio was to offer a 4k gaming platform and to put MS in the position of offering the most powerful hardware or to say it another way the premium gaming experience and once the system was designed and the power understood the consideration of VR came up and now we're seeing messaging start to evolve to reflect the capability of the hardware including VR. There has been quite a bit of speculation about the overall interest in Scorpio, the CPU, the price and the over market penetration but until we see the retail price, the actual strength of the CPU and how the robust the sales are but contrary to some of the ideas being presented we still are in the dark about quite a bit here....

Some of the opinion here regarding Scorpio is much further along than what we know.... just as some of the statements about PS4 are purposefully misleading...

The move to APUs using x86 opens the door to platform holders to consider more fluid hardware release schedules and potentially machines becoming backward compatible and even perhaps forward compatible as well. In the case of MS, they are doing a really wonderful job offering BC and it may be that Scorpio offers games that are exclusive to Scorpio which are not backward compatible with XB1 hardware but I haven't seen anything which officially says this will be so. The closest confirmation of this was an interview where Loftis said (paraphrasing) 'it would be up to the developers...'. BTW are MS doing their own VR or is this being left open for a partnership? In any case it is likely that VR would be an area that sees Scorpio exclusivity because of the power of XB1 relative to what is needed for VR but again I think that Scorpio exclusivity is far from a certainty. Scorpio exclusivity would likely happen only if Scorpio manages to generate a significant installed base. In any case MS's views on the matter are seemingly evolving as early statements contradict later messaging on this topic so opinions have been divided.

.
 
Personally I would like a business model where new games always support the current & previous consoles (2 generations). This is what most game developers have been traditionally doing anyways. But the previous console support has usually ended a bit sooner.

This would be perfect for consumers. When you buy a new console, you are guaranteed to be able to play all games released during its life time, and all games released during the next gen consoles life time. Some people might buy every console gen, and some people might buy consoles every other gen. It we assume that console cycle is twice as fast as it used to be, you can still buy a console every 7 years and enjoy all the games. Hardcore games can buy a new console every 3.5 years to get improvements faster.
 
Personally I would like a business model where new games always support the current & previous consoles (2 generations). This is what most game developers have been traditionally doing anyways. But the previous console support has usually ended a bit sooner.

This would be perfect for consumers. When you buy a new console, you are guaranteed to be able to play all games released during its life time, and all games released during the next gen consoles life time. Some people might buy every console gen, and some people might buy consoles every other gen. It we assume that console cycle is twice as fast as it used to be, you can still buy a console every 7 years and enjoy all the games. Hardcore games can buy a new console every 3.5 years to get improvements faster.

uhhh...isn't this almost exactly what we are getting with Scorpio?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top