Possibly. Just presenting a case here, not saying I subscribe to it, but the whole point with the casual market is it's casual. Lightweight. It repesents the difference between people who play a bit of crazy golf when on holiday, versus those for whom golf is a hobby and they spend considerable money and time on it. Even with an ability to appeal to a broader audience, is that audience going to like it enough to invest in it, or just play it when around a friend's house?
Also bare in mind that the core market of PS2's size and larger was made up of casuals and traditional gamers. Wii's piece of the pie may just be a slice of that, instead of in addition to. Well, obviously it's going to be some middle ground, attracting new people and some existing console owners. We have no figures on this though, how many Wii owners previously had a PS2 etc. But if Wii remains 'casual' and doesn't attract the hobbiest, to reach PS2's install base they'll need to appeal to a whole larger market that before ignored consoles. And for whatever new experiences Wii offers, at its heart it's still a video games machine. Of the billions of people who don't play golf, introducing a new variety of golf isn't likely to attract most of them. Of the billions of people who don't play video games, introducing a new controller isn't that likely to sway all of them. It isn't going to get people who like to read books to instead play Wii, or people who love to watch films instead play Wii sports, etc. Wii is still competing with all the other pasttimes and hobbies and interests out there, and I wouldn't expect it, or any hobby, to usurp everything else and become the de facto entertainment. Every hobby is going to have a limited portion of the masses partaking in it. How large Wii's part could grow to was never known and that was Nintendo's gamble. Maybe it'll be bigger than PS2. Maybe it won't. I don't see anything on paper that suggests it should be, only that it could be, if the unpredictable general populace go that way or not.
