Japan Sales Thread
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Well, then we're in an odd state of affairs. The company that has explicitly modeled its approach off strategies envisioned at the HBS by luminaries like Clayton Christensen is making money hand over fist and growing the market, while analysts and journalists who try to explain everything in terms of "hardcore/casual" are unable to get even the most basic predictions right or even define things coherently. Pretty weird how the people most in tune with reality make the worst predictions and give the worst business advice. I've noticed most businesses tend to be more impressed by what comes out of HBS than video game forums, too.
To be fair, businesses don't know what they're doing either. But see, I'm fine with the idea that the Wii is chasing the expanded market and finding success there. My problem often comes when you hear at the same time that the Wii market is the 'casual' part of the PS2 market. The Wii can't have the bulk of its buyers be both new gamers and people who owned PS2s. I lean towards the first.
The other problem I have with this is the idea that Nintendo is infallible and in total control. I've said it before, but I believe that even Nintendo isn't entirely sure of the interests of the people buying their consoles. And with the failure of Wii Music to become the next Wii Fit, and with no software to really fill the gap 'til June, Nintendo runs a very real risk of the expanded market 'getting over' the Wii. I'm not even convinced that Wii Sports Resort will be the success everyone thinks it'll be -- it'll certainly sell well, and almost certainly better than Wii Music, but I don't think it'll push hardware. Motion+ seems like the wrong sort of focus here. It'll be more successful in the US, since only just now people are managing to get the Wiis they want and so their interest in the system is at full-burn but even so it's just another collection of minigames, even if higher-quality ones.
I also have some issue with how Nintendo's doing the 'upscale sell' thing, because it doesn't seem like they're trying very hard there. Mario Kart's certainly a success and probably a bridge game, but there's not much to follow up, to turn that chunk of the expanded audience into 'gamers', god rest their souls. Nintendo's own efforts here have been fairly anemic -- and third parties for the most part go for the hardcore or for the minigames.
Yes, by about 500 units. Also the PS3 crossed the 3m mark in the previous week.
This week's FFXIII demo boost is the largest PS3 week since 9-Jun-08, and 9th largest of all time.
Yes, it does. No company is 100% successful in everything all the time. Nintendo obviously expected Wii Music to be much more successful than it was, but the title ultimately failed. It had both content problems (little professional content) and, unlike sports and fitness games, was awfully cheesy. Wii Fit is a mature, adult product. I can't say the same about Wii Music. New customers can lose interest quickly, and Nintendo's in uncharted waters. The traditional model is to grab gamers when they're kids, shed the women when they hit their teens, and hook them up with violence, fast cars, and boobs as they move into their 20s and 30s.
I think Wii Fit was more of an upmarket product than people gave it credit for. Wii Sports was the gateway drug. Wii Fit, by contrast, is a bit more complicated, a lot more expensive, and requires more dedication to use effectively. Most gamers think of cars and combat when they think "upmarket," but in reality, those are just upmarket "guy games." Wii Fit is an upmarket girl game. We haven't seen many if any mature games for women, so when we do, we label it a "casual game" or a "non-game."
EA's also trying to move Wii Sports fans upmarket with its Grand Slam Tennis (which is much deeper than Wii Tennis), EA Fitness (which targets balance board owners), and continuing to develop its Tiger Woods brand on Wii. The latter franchise has already been successful on Wii.
I'm not sure I agree. It's more upmarket than Wii Sports, sure, but the people who bought the Wii for Wii Sports aren't necessarily those that bought it for Wii Fit. They appeal to different segments of the expanded audience: one targets the party game people, the other targets the... well, whoever it is that buys gimmicky exercise equipment off infomercials. Majesco targeted essentially the same folk when it did that Gillian Michaels game. EA is trying to go upmarket from Wii Fit with that EA Active, or whatever it's called -- since it seems to be an exercise game that requires more than just a token effort.
You're right, but that makes one publisher. Nintendo itself hasn't really come through. And this is a Japan thread, and in Japan things are much worse.
Couple interesting Japanese sales points courtesy the Neogaf Media Create thread and poster JoshuaJSlone (I believe these numbers are Media Create although they might be Famitsu)
YoY comparisons through the first 15 weeks of the year:
Also PS3 ahead of Wii YTD
PS3=447,700
Wii=431,833
YoY comparisons through the first 15 weeks of the year:
Also PS3 ahead of Wii YTD
PS3=447,700
Wii=431,833
djskribbles
Legend
Increases for HD consoles (especially 360), and huge drop for Wii.
Not nearly to the extent of the 360 numbers.
Pre "big demo"
Week 1-15 2008: 366,125
Week 1-15 2009: 385,173 (+5.2%)
Post "big demo"
Week 1-16 2008: 373,563
Week 1-16 2009: 447,700 (+19.8%)
Lucid_Dreamer
Veteran
Media Create numbers
PSP 41,187
DSi 37,495
PS3 23,351
Wii 18,439
Xbox 360 7,016
DS Lite 6,374
PS2 4,524
PSP 41,187
DSi 37,495
PS3 23,351
Wii 18,439
Xbox 360 7,016
DS Lite 6,374
PS2 4,524
Lucid_Dreamer
Veteran
Media Create Numbers (April 27 - May 3)
NDS 56,673
PSP 49,557
PS3 23,588
WII 21,546
360 7,313
PS2 5,479
DSi 49,133
DSL 7,540
NDS 56,673
PSP 49,557
PS3 23,588
WII 21,546
360 7,313
PS2 5,479
DSi 49,133
DSL 7,540
djskribbles
Legend
Surprised the PS3 didn't drop at all.
April Media Create Japan sales, using NPD month definitions (06/04/2009 - 03/05/2009, 4 week period):
Wii should pass 8m units in 3 weeks.
Here is a graph of the first four months of 2009, corrected to weekly averages in each month.
Code:
[B]Home[/B]
Mar YTD LTD
PS3: 126,167 494,639 3,117,067
Wii: 66,555 471,818 7,950,719
360: 33,115 185,726 1,015,996
PS2: 18,764 100,095
[B]Handheld[/B]
Mar YTD LTD
NDS: 192,809 1,263,102 26,382,745
PSP: 171,715 919,699 12,277,863
[B]NDS Split[/B]
Mar YTD LTD
DSi: 165,588 1,018,721 2,250,080
DSL: 27,221 244,381 17,547,186Wii should pass 8m units in 3 weeks.
Here is a graph of the first four months of 2009, corrected to weekly averages in each month.
@catisfit Nice work. The graph really makes the trends clear.
So, does anyone have any insight into the factors driving the recent PS3 turnaround. Is is just a matter of all of the previous factors finally adding up to create a tipping point for a larger number of consumers? I'm curious to see if Sony could leverage some of the same factors to create greater success in other markets (especially N.A.).
Also I'm thinking Nintendo's "casual" attitude with the Wii is costing them in maintaining momentum. They really seem to be sputtering badly right now.
So, does anyone have any insight into the factors driving the recent PS3 turnaround. Is is just a matter of all of the previous factors finally adding up to create a tipping point for a larger number of consumers? I'm curious to see if Sony could leverage some of the same factors to create greater success in other markets (especially N.A.).
Also I'm thinking Nintendo's "casual" attitude with the Wii is costing them in maintaining momentum. They really seem to be sputtering badly right now.
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