Electric Vehicle Thread!

[eastmen]

Is this a genuine concern in Northern America? How often do you need to take a 16 hours road trip in a car?

My Volkswagen ID.4 barely does over half the rated distance when it's cold here in Denmark (below 0℃), so I wouldn't dream of going on a longer road trip in it. You will also be going quite slow as speeding over 90 km/h will drain the battery much faster and there really aren't that many fast DC chargers along the way either.

Some of it is my own fault as I never charge it above 80% unless I really need to go somewhere out of the way.

I mean I take the drive listed 4-8 times a year. I know a lot of people who will drive the same or more to visit family over the holidays.

Last time I drove to my parents home in Florida it cost me 350 in gas and my wife came with me along with my friend. If we flew it would likely be $400-600 a person and we would still need a car while we were down there. Its a huge savings. I have another friend who just drove from Chicago to Edison and that is about a 12-13 hour drive.

 

[Jawed]

A public fast charger (say 200KW or higher) is a licence to print money, since there's premium pricing in faster charging. And more, when people stop to charge, they tend to do some shopping if there's a shop open.

It's just taking the places that have forecourts where they could be installed a while to work that out...

Of course the US is a special place where the scale and low population density prevents high capacity electrical infrastructure reaching many "in-between" places.

 

[wco81]

How often are people doing road trips?

What percentage of people drive say 200 miles or more from home more than once or twice a year if that?

I know most commutes are 20-30 miles so a lot of drives are short for most people.

Yes there are people who will need to use super chargers regularly.

And some percentage of people will need to tow something -- I've never towed anything in all my years of driving. When I needed to move, I rented a U-Haul truck, not a trailer.

But people will still have access to ICE cars for the rest of our lives. You may not be able to register new ICE cars in some jurisdictions. But there will be plenty of older ICE cars that you can buy and operate for decades after any deadlines.

Increasingly though, as EV penetration increases, it will probably cost more to operate ICE cars, with fewer gas stations, smog stations, etc.

 

[eastmen]

How often are people doing road trips?

What percentage of people drive say 200 miles or more from home more than once or twice a year if that?

I know most commutes are 20-30 miles so a lot of drives are short for most people.

Yes there are people who will need to use super chargers regularly.

And some percentage of people will need to tow something -- I've never towed anything in all my years of driving. When I needed to move, I rented a U-Haul truck, not a trailer.

But people will still have access to ICE cars for the rest of our lives. You may not be able to register new ICE cars in some jurisdictions. But there will be plenty of older ICE cars that you can buy and operate for decades after any deadlines.

Increasingly though, as EV penetration increases, it will probably cost more to operate ICE cars, with fewer gas stations, smog stations, etc.

I'd assume it depends on where you live ?

here in new jersey during the summer a lot of people head off to the shore for beach vacations. That can be hundreds of miles and can be done very often. When I was younger we would go to the shore almost every weekend which was about 200 miles round trip. I have family that still does as they own shore houses.

Most commutes are 20-30 miles but that is just the commute. Lots of people will go off and do other things during the day. They can go off for groceries or out for dinner and so on and so forth. There is also increased idling during the summer and winter months and of course sitting in traffic to take into account.


I think the larger issue is the lack of chargers. If you own your own home then yes 120v charging is slow as hell but it can give you back mileage extending the time you might need a charging station. If you can set up 240v which gives 15-30miles per hour charge seems like a great solution. Park it over night for 8 hours and that is 120 - 240 miles of range added back to the car .

But what about renters ? Before we bought a house my wife and I lived in an apartment complex and the way it was designed i doubt they would be able to add in more than a few charging spots. I think electric cars are the future but there are so many issues that I think that future is more 2050 than 2030

I live in a modest area but a town a few miles away is one of the richest in NJ and there is 1 charging area with 4 chargers for a hugely populated town

 

[wco81]

For those summer trips, they need chargers at the destination then. Maybe not so much on the way to the destination.

Typical commutes and going out to stores and restaurants should be fine for most cars with at least 150 mile range.

Renters will be an issue but I don't think will be a huge problem for at least 20 years. People who own homes with garages will probably be the first to gravitate to EVs.

As I mentioned above, there will be used ICEs in use for at least 20 years after places stop registering ICE cars. So that takes us to 2050-2055.

A lot can and will happen in 30-35 years.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

How often are people doing road trips?

What percentage of people drive say 200 miles or more from home more than once or twice a year if that?

I guess it depends on your community and what the people there like to do in their free time. Pretty much every single family in my neighborhood take a trip over 200 miles at least once a month and it's not uncommon for some of those trips to be over 500 miles one way so a greater than 1000 mile round trip. Quite a few do it at least once a week all year round. Fishing, hiking, bird watching, photography, hunting, skiing, marathons, road rallies, visiting relatives, sight seeing, boating, etc. There's lot of things that require greater than 200 mile trips or greater than 400 mile trips if you are an active individual that likes the outdoors.

And quite a few of those trips end up at locations where even gas stations are remote and charging stations are obviously non-existent.

Regards,
SB

 

[wco81]

I guess it depends on your community and what the people there like to do in their free time. Pretty much every single family in my neighborhood take a trip over 200 miles at least once a month and it's not uncommon for some of those trips to be over 500 miles one way so a greater than 1000 mile round trip. Quite a few do it at least once a week all year round. Fishing, hiking, bird watching, photography, hunting, skiing, marathons, road rallies, visiting relatives, sight seeing, boating, etc. There's lot of things that require greater than 200 mile trips or greater than 400 mile trips if you are an active individual that likes the outdoors.

And quite a few of those trips end up at locations where even gas stations are remote and charging stations are obviously non-existent.

Regards,
SB

Then they should not buy EVs then.

But I'm guessing they're a niche, most people do not drive such distances that often, other than maybe for business, if your'e a trucker, salesman, etc.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Then they should not buy EVs then.

But I'm guessing they're a niche, most people do not drive such distances that often, other than maybe for business, if your'e a trucker, salesman, etc.

It just kind of depends. We take regular trips across the state to go to a Japanese grocery store that has things that we can't get locally and from our place it's ~280 miles one way. Over the summer we occasionally go to LARPs at a campground that is ~195 miles away. That campground was chosen since it's as close to being central to everyone involved as we can make it. There's usually anywhere from 40-50 people attending at any given session.

When my grandmother was still alive we'd go on a 500-1000 mile (1000-2000 mile roundtrip) sight seeing tour around various places in the US and Canada about once every 2 weeks or so. About 2-3 times a year we'd go on a longer roadtrip that could be as far as 6000 miles round trip. Growing up my dad and I would make the trip from Sacramento, CA to Elko, NV (about an 850 mile roundtrip) for every holiday to see my grandparents.

I suppose beause everyone on my father's immediate side of the family grew up in Hawai'i, they just couldn't get enough of travelling around and seeing so many locations once they moved to the mainland.

And I've got neighbors that go out on trips even more often than that, especially the retired ones who will spend 1-2 weeks every other month just travelling around and sightseeing with their kids or grandkids. Our neighbor just took off on a 2000 mile roundtrip to a ski lodge in another state.

Like I said, it totally depends on your community. The people around here like to do things in the outdoors, so they tend to do a LOT of driving.

I suppose that might seem as alien to some people as it does to me when I think of people that don't do a lot of long distance driving to go do fun things or see historical sites (I love history) or try to see places they've never seen before or visit relatives in other states, etc. While many of us could fly, it's cheaper to drive and you get to see new sights and meet new people while doing it. I personally find it interesting to meet and talk with people in as many states as I can manage and in small or large towns and cities.

Regards,
SB

 

[eastmen]

For those summer trips, they need chargers at the destination then. Maybe not so much on the way to the destination.

Typical commutes and going out to stores and restaurants should be fine for most cars with at least 150 mile range.

Renters will be an issue but I don't think will be a huge problem for at least 20 years. People who own homes with garages will probably be the first to gravitate to EVs.

As I mentioned above, there will be used ICEs in use for at least 20 years after places stop registering ICE cars. So that takes us to 2050-2055.

A lot can and will happen in 30-35 years.

Sure but since they are summer rentals not everyone is going to want to put fast chargers. Also a lot of the jersey shore is prone to bad flooding. So I am not sure how well those chargers will hold up


California has a ban on new ice vehicles starting 2035 , NJ has been trying to pass something similar and I am sure more states will follow. I am sure it wont be lets keep making 13-15m ice cars every year until 2035 and then stop. It's going to be a decline. The real problem isn't new cars but used cars. the average age of the usa's fleet is 15 years old. With new car prices continuing to go up people are making older cars last longer this is going to end up hurting the poorest people out there who need to commute. As the used car market dries up many people will be removed from the market.

We really don't know how well electric cars will hold up past 10 / 15/20 years

 

[AlphaWolf]

We really don't know how well electric cars will hold up past 10 / 15/20 years

Electric motors are way more durable than ICE. It's only the battery that's at issue and that has improved significantly in a relatively short time. The battery cost needs to come down. Solid state looks promising but it's likely at least 10 years from consumer.

 

[Mariner]

We really don't know how well electric cars will hold up past 10 / 15/20 years

Other than the batteries, which are known to degrade significantly, there really shouldn't be any issues with longevity of electric cars. Electric motors tend to be very reliable indeed due to the few moving parts (in comparison to an ICE). The brakes and other ancillary parts of cars aren't significantly different to those used in ICEs, either. I suppose the one difference might be heatpumps used in some electric cars for the aircon, but the technology behind these is well understood.

I'd say that the most likely issue with keeping older electric cars on the road would be availability of replacement battery packs. It would be nice if it was possible to retrofit batteries using improved chemistries (as they become available/economical) in older cars to increase the range as well...

 

[eastmen]

Electric motors are way more durable than ICE. It's only the battery that's at issue and that has improved significantly in a relatively short time. The battery cost needs to come down. Solid state looks promising but it's likely at least 10 years from consumer.

Other than the batteries, which are known to degrade significantly, there really shouldn't be any issues with longevity of electric cars. Electric motors tend to be very reliable indeed due to the few moving parts (in comparison to an ICE). The brakes and other ancillary parts of cars aren't significantly different to those used in ICEs, either. I suppose the one difference might be heatpumps used in some electric cars for the aircon, but the technology behind these is well understood.

I'd say that the most likely issue with keeping older electric cars on the road would be availability of replacement battery packs. It would be nice if it was possible to retrofit batteries using improved chemistries (as they become available/economical) in older cars to increase the range as well...

Yes but it costs a lot of money to replace batteries vs engines

Costs of Electric Car Battery Replacement

When it comes to electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, many shoppers wonder how long it will be until they have to replace their battery. Then what will it cost to replace that battery?

www.recurrentauto.com

 

[cheapchips]

Yes but it costs a lot of money to replace batteries vs engines

It'll be interesting to see how that plays out over time. Old batteries should be worth more than engine scrap. Cells that are past their best for cars are still useful for other applications. It's also going to be worthwhile 'mining' old EV batteries rather than digging stuff out of the ground. There's various companies gearing up to do just that. Whether that recycle value reaches vehicle owners is an open question at this point though.

 

[wco81]

Other than the batteries, which are known to degrade significantly, there really shouldn't be any issues with longevity of electric cars. Electric motors tend to be very reliable indeed due to the few moving parts (in comparison to an ICE). The brakes and other ancillary parts of cars aren't significantly different to those used in ICEs, either. I suppose the one difference might be heatpumps used in some electric cars for the aircon, but the technology behind these is well understood.

I'd say that the most likely issue with keeping older electric cars on the road would be availability of replacement battery packs. It would be nice if it was possible to retrofit batteries using improved chemistries (as they become available/economical) in older cars to increase the range as well...

EVs have a lot less hoses, gaskets, pumps and other little parts which could age or break down.

As for retrofitting batteries, it might be difficult because many EVs, the batteries are kind of molded into tight spaces. It's not always a simple slab that could be swapped out. Similar to some slim laptops these days, if you opened them, you see the batteries are molded into no-standard shapes, often glued into place with thermal paste and such.

I forget the ratings, they said in 10 years they're still expected to retain 80% capacity or something like that. There's talk about re-purposing old EV batteries for things like home electricity storage and other applications where battery life isn't as critical.

 

[eastmen]

It'll be interesting to see how that plays out over time. Old batteries should be worth more than engine scrap. Cells that are past their best for cars are still useful for other applications. It's also going to be worthwhile 'mining' old EV batteries rather than digging stuff out of the ground. There's various companies gearing up to do just that. Whether that recycle value reaches vehicle owners is an open question at this point though.

Sure we will have to wait and see how it all goes down. However a lot of car engines can make it over a 100k miles sometimes 200-300k. I have owned 3 cars and they have all hit above a 180k miles with one hitting 220 (man i miss my 94 jeep cherokee )

If we are replacing batteries sooner than that there will have to be a lot of resell value in those batteries.

EVs have a lot less hoses, gaskets, pumps and other little parts which could age or break down.

As for retrofitting batteries, it might be difficult because many EVs, the batteries are kind of molded into tight spaces. It's not always a simple slab that could be swapped out. Similar to some slim laptops these days, if you opened them, you see the batteries are molded into no-standard shapes, often glued into place with thermal paste and such.

I forget the ratings, they said in 10 years they're still expected to retain 80% capacity or something like that. There's talk about re-purposing old EV batteries for things like home electricity storage and other applications where battery life isn't as critical.

The do but at the same time there are so many places out there that do repair work. Will the same be said for electric cars ?

 

[wco81]

Sure we will have to wait and see how it all goes down. However a lot of car engines can make it over a 100k miles sometimes 200-300k. I have owned 3 cars and they have all hit above a 180k miles with one hitting 220 (man i miss my 94 jeep cherokee )

If we are replacing batteries sooner than that there will have to be a lot of resell value in those batteries.


The do but at the same time there are so many places out there that do repair work. Will the same be said for electric cars ?

Do you know what percentage of people drive cars over 100k or 200k? I honestly don't know but I think those are more outliers, especially 200k.

Or the average length of time before people trade in for other cars?

As far as doing repair work, you'd think they would pick up work on EVs, as EVs increase in percentage. If anything else, ICE repairs will decline once new ICE cars are banned.

That said, there will be ICE cars of some kind for decades, probably the rest of our lives at least.

 

[eastmen]

Do you know what percentage of people drive cars over 100k or 200k? I honestly don't know but I think those are more outliers, especially 200k.

Or the average length of time before people trade in for other cars?

As far as doing repair work, you'd think they would pick up work on EVs, as EVs increase in percentage. If anything else, ICE repairs will decline once new ICE cars are banned.

That said, there will be ICE cars of some kind for decades, probably the rest of our lives at least.

All I can point to is this https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a33457915/average-age-vehicles-on-road-12-years/ the cars on the road keep getting older which means they are getting higher mileage too. So yea people might get a lease with 30k miles on it and then jump to anew lease and that first purchased 3 year old now used car starts with 30k miles but what about the 3rd or 4th owner of it ?

 

[wco81]

Sure people buy used cars with 50k miles. I'd be wary of buying a car with much more than that. Car may run okay but it may have both major and minor repairs coming up frequently.

Actually with EVs, the used car market could be interesting. If there are reliable tests to show remaining battery capacity, if the battery can only be charged to 90% or 80% of original capacity, you'd have a good idea of how much the car has depreciated.

A used car may or may not have been well-maintained and if it doesn't come with any kind of warranty, it could be a money pit.

 

[Albuquerque]

It looks like most of these companies have 240V options so instead of going all in on a tesla charger the standard 240 would give you more options going forward. Dunno what tesla is doing to get double the charging rate out of a standard 240volt outlet however.

Not sure what you mean by "what Tesla is going to do..." as right now we're using a Tesla mobile charger ($200 USD) as our home charger. I bought it as a bundle with both the NEMA 5-15 (typical US three-prong 120v/15A outlet) and also the larger NEMA 14-50 (four-prong 240v/50A) connectors; a slew of other NEMA connectors are also available such as the older but still usable NEMA 6-50 (three-prong 240/50A often found behind a garage welder) and the NEMA 10-30 (the three-prong 30A found on most smaller RVs and trailers.)

I dropped in my own 14-50 wall socket into the garage for about $100 in parts and a half day's worth of labor; it charges around 30mph / 7.6kWHr with my Model Y. This comes out to roughly 10% battery charge per hour.

 

[eastmen]

Not sure what you mean by "what Tesla is going to do..." as right now we're using a Tesla mobile charger ($200 USD) as our home charger. I bought it as a bundle with both the NEMA 5-15 (typical US three-prong 120v/15A outlet) and also the larger NEMA 14-50 (four-prong 240v/50A) connectors; a slew of other NEMA connectors are also available such as the older but still usable NEMA 6-50 (three-prong 240/50A often found behind a garage welder) and the NEMA 10-30 (the three-prong 30A found on most smaller RVs and trailers.)

I dropped in my own 14-50 wall socket into the garage for about $100 in parts and a half day's worth of labor; it charges around 30mph / 7.6kWHr with my Model Y. This comes out to roughly 10% battery charge per hour.

I mean its in my post

Wall Connector

A Tesla Wall Connector offers the fastest charging speed for your home or office, adding up to 44 miles of range per hour charged. You can order a Wall Connector online and have it installed by a Tesla Certified electrician.


It offers up to 44miles of range per hour charged

This is the rivian charger

Made to keep you moving​

Our Wall Charger connects via Wi-Fi and communicates seamlessly with the full Rivian ecosystem to receive over-the-air updates. Charging is capable of 11.5 kW — meaning, you can add up to 25 miles of range per hour of charging.



So 44 is almost double the 25 of the rivian