Analyst predict Xbox 360 will beat PlayStation 3 - Inq
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ihamoitc2005 said:
Let me clarify my question. I'm not trying to predict what WILL happen or agree with analysts. All i was asking was, if they were right, and each console has "X" market share do you think that would be good/bad for each company, sort of a report card on it.
I totally agree analysts are often wrong.
J
ihamoitc2005
Veteran
If (big if) analyst right ....
I apologize that I did not understand your question.
In such situation as analyst proposes, then it seems Nintendo might have problems. Both Sony and Microsoft will succeed financially. Microsoft will make much profit on games, license, accessories, live and maybe music download while sony makes much profit on games, license, accessories, online, movies, license for blu-ray and maybe even CELL as well as music download. Nintendo will sell hardware at loss like other two companies but has only same number of revenue channels as Microsoft (difference: old games download instead of music download) at best but proposed marketshare not enough to be very profitable if at all. Sony has most revenue channels related to console and hence has most revenue per console but with biggest R&D spending of all companies also has most expense. Overall Sony and MS ok, Nintendo touch and go.
Big disclaimer: what I wrote is based on analyst predicted market share and as usual such predictions are not meaningful, especially in cases where precise looking numbers are provided by analyst.
expletive said:
I apologize that I did not understand your question.
In such situation as analyst proposes, then it seems Nintendo might have problems. Both Sony and Microsoft will succeed financially. Microsoft will make much profit on games, license, accessories, live and maybe music download while sony makes much profit on games, license, accessories, online, movies, license for blu-ray and maybe even CELL as well as music download. Nintendo will sell hardware at loss like other two companies but has only same number of revenue channels as Microsoft (difference: old games download instead of music download) at best but proposed marketshare not enough to be very profitable if at all. Sony has most revenue channels related to console and hence has most revenue per console but with biggest R&D spending of all companies also has most expense. Overall Sony and MS ok, Nintendo touch and go.
Big disclaimer: what I wrote is based on analyst predicted market share and as usual such predictions are not meaningful, especially in cases where precise looking numbers are provided by analyst.
That makes no sense to me. Nintendo have excellent profitability this gen with small market share. Why is that going change? And MS is HUGELY losing money, so even double the share on what they have now (save other factors) they'd only be marginally profitable. Straight guesses on market share doesn't provide much info at all on likely profitability.ihamoitc2005 said:
Nope. Brand loyalty has a considerable benefit. It's to do wth human behavioral psychology and the way people form relations and on the whole prefer to go with something they already know then something different. It takes quite a lot to make people consider switching from a known brand/service/product they have had a postive experience with, or rather a positive mental connection with which may be the result of 'education'.MfA said:
There are only five groups of people console installed base numbers can come from:
1) PS2 owners
2) GameCube owners
3) Xbox owners
4) Multi-console owners
5) Non-console owners
I have never really looked at the percentage of 4) vs. single console owners, but I assume it is fairly small and is not going to be significantly larger or smaller next gen. So I will ignore that segment.
1) & 2) account for ~90 + ~20 million console owners. There would need to be a reason people in this group to defect to a different console. Exclusive game defections by publishers or some execution failure on Sony or Nintendo's part bad enough to cause current PS2 and GameCube owners to defect to a different console.
5) is the 6 billion or so people who are non-console owners. There would need to be some new and compelling reason for tens of millions of these people to go out and buy a 360 and not a PS3 or Revolution.
3) is the ~20 million current Xbox owners. There seems to be quite a bit of dissatisfaction in this group. Large numbers of very poor looking games. The backward compatibility mess. The 2 sku/harddive not being standard dissatisfaction. And so on.
Some additional console market points:
1) Price does not affect console choice as long as it is in the 50-100 dollar or so range. Consumers will continue to play games on their old console until the price drops to their personal range.
2) Launch timing means nothing as long as the range is in the six month to year range. 300-500 dollars is a huge sum of money for the vast majority of console consumers that they spend only once every five years or so. They will wait for the machine they desire.
3) Exclusive game titles is the single most important factor in console choice.
The 360 gaining marketshare just isn't going to happen. The numbers just don't add up. There just aren't tens of million of new people out of the five groups listed above to make up the claimed marketshare growth so many people are saying is reasonable to expect. The distribution of exclusive game titles remains almost the same as it was last gen. For significant marketshare shift there would need to be a equally significant shift in system selling exclusives. That hasn't happend.
Microsoft and the 360 look like they are in a fight just to maintain their current installed base. I would say they are looking at installed base numbers in the ~15 million range. Current Xbox owners - a fairly significant number of defections from the 'most powerful' crowd + overall console market growth.
1) PS2 owners
2) GameCube owners
3) Xbox owners
4) Multi-console owners
5) Non-console owners
I have never really looked at the percentage of 4) vs. single console owners, but I assume it is fairly small and is not going to be significantly larger or smaller next gen. So I will ignore that segment.
1) & 2) account for ~90 + ~20 million console owners. There would need to be a reason people in this group to defect to a different console. Exclusive game defections by publishers or some execution failure on Sony or Nintendo's part bad enough to cause current PS2 and GameCube owners to defect to a different console.
5) is the 6 billion or so people who are non-console owners. There would need to be some new and compelling reason for tens of millions of these people to go out and buy a 360 and not a PS3 or Revolution.
3) is the ~20 million current Xbox owners. There seems to be quite a bit of dissatisfaction in this group. Large numbers of very poor looking games. The backward compatibility mess. The 2 sku/harddive not being standard dissatisfaction. And so on.
Some additional console market points:
1) Price does not affect console choice as long as it is in the 50-100 dollar or so range. Consumers will continue to play games on their old console until the price drops to their personal range.
2) Launch timing means nothing as long as the range is in the six month to year range. 300-500 dollars is a huge sum of money for the vast majority of console consumers that they spend only once every five years or so. They will wait for the machine they desire.
3) Exclusive game titles is the single most important factor in console choice.
The 360 gaining marketshare just isn't going to happen. The numbers just don't add up. There just aren't tens of million of new people out of the five groups listed above to make up the claimed marketshare growth so many people are saying is reasonable to expect. The distribution of exclusive game titles remains almost the same as it was last gen. For significant marketshare shift there would need to be a equally significant shift in system selling exclusives. That hasn't happend.
Microsoft and the 360 look like they are in a fight just to maintain their current installed base. I would say they are looking at installed base numbers in the ~15 million range. Current Xbox owners - a fairly significant number of defections from the 'most powerful' crowd + overall console market growth.
mckmas8808
Legend
MfA said:
Hey I like that. I might jack it for another time in the future.
Unless the PES and FIFA adverts during halftime advertise availablility for every platform under the sun. I don't think very many people will be buying a console based solely on it's appearance on a billboard. This type of promotional material is more about building up mindset and associations. What WOULD sell the console is an advert of a fantastic looking world cup game and the words 'console x exclusive'. And besides world cup soccer games lack longevity when countries lose interest as their teams are knocked out, whereas league football goes on, and on, and on forever.Uncle said:
Uncle said:
Which reminds me that the 2006 World Cup (the ONLY football event i ever watch) will be on SkyHD! Imagine that! All the world cut in HD!
If we're lucky (very lucky) we might have PS3 in "spring" 2006 too. Not many of us will actually get our hands on it, but there is a strong possibility that it will be "released" by then. And fully hands-on-able for people like us who don't have a brother working at Sony by xmas 2009.
True. A stellar footy game on XB360 might generate some strong uptake of the machine if there's no alternative.
Well, pubs will be the first to take advantage of the new SkyHD, so they'll probably be jumping on the opportunity to show nice HD world cup. It will attract even more people. And will make HDTV prices go down too, with all these people wanting a piece of that at homewco81 said:
But yeah, it should be July.
I don't suppose any of the pubs are non-smoking?
Not likely but then again, if Ireland can ban smoking in pubs, it should be able to happen anywhere. Took a flight from Heathrow to Cork once. As soon as the plane touched down and we got into the terminal, you heard all these lighters flicking on like some heavy metal concert.
Not likely but then again, if Ireland can ban smoking in pubs, it should be able to happen anywhere. Took a flight from Heathrow to Cork once. As soon as the plane touched down and we got into the terminal, you heard all these lighters flicking on like some heavy metal concert.
