Analyst: Xbox and Wii to Break Playstation Domination

[tongue_of_colicab]

Japan matters much less than you think.

Do you think the PS3 will outsell the PS2 in the USA in the next, say, 6-9 months? I don't.

360 has a decent share where it should: in the minds of developers and in the lineups of publishers. This is what matters in the long term, not how you compare to the 3x cheaper last-gen console.

If Japan didnt matter that much than why is MS going tru so much effort to get people in Japan on x360?

Japan might not be that important on total sales, but Japan is buying relativly more consoles and games than we do. Sony sold 20million ps2's in Japan and 40million in Europe. But Europe has like 4 or 5 times more people. DS sales in in the USA are around 200, 300.000 a month. Nintendo sells half a million each month in Japan with only half the number of people living there. Same goes for software sales.

And even if those 2 thing were not important alot of Japanese games sell alot in the USA/EU and also are more important for the choice of console. If you want EA games it doesnt really matter wich console you buy. But if you want FF, MGS etc you are more bound to one system.

 

[Gerry]

Both PS2 and XBox are independentelly imported.

PS2 slim: http://www.submarino.com.br/games.asp?Query=NextLevelPage&ProdTypeId=12&CatId=43449&PrevCatId=43449
Xbox 360: http://www.submarino.com.br/homecac...age&ProdTypeId=12&CatId=49459&PrevCatId=49459

So the Xbox 360 is 3 times for expensive than the PS2 at the moment? Anyway, I think it's a bit premature to start quoting sales numbers from imports - best to wait until next month when the 360 goes on general sale in Brazil.

 

[pascal]

PS2 has a large installed base here.
The XBox 360 will probably cost at least twice the price of the imported PS2.
Lets wait and see.

 

[DJ12]

Someone should investigate the link between Merrill Lynch and Microsoft, there's bound to be one.

I expect recent monthly payments for various market predictions......

 

[assen]

A lot of Japanese games sell alot in the USA/EU and also are more important for the choice of console. If you want EA games it doesnt really matter wich console you buy. But if you want FF, MGS etc you are more bound to one system.

The list behind that "etc" is rapidly shrinking. And the 360 will increasingly get Japanese games even without a dominant marketshare in Japan.

You missed the most important part of my post. The 360 has stellar developer mindshare in 2006, this is what will be more important for the results in 2011 than the sales numbers over 2006.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

And the 360 will increasingly get Japanese games even without a dominant marketshare in Japan.

Only because MS is spending a load of cash on ''buying'' devs to make games for x360. Though MS has the advantage of developing costs getting so high that alot of Japanese devs are thinking about making their games multiplatform.

As for as I know x360 sales arnt very different than xbox sales atm. I have no doubt that MS will be getting a larger market share but I dont think MS will be nummero 1.

 

[Arwin]

Only because MS is spending a load of cash on ''buying'' devs to make games for x360. Though MS has the advantage of developing costs getting so high that alot of Japanese devs are thinking about making their games multiplatform.

As for as I know x360 sales arnt very different than xbox sales atm. I have no doubt that MS will be getting a larger market share but I dont think MS will be nummero 1.

That's not completely true. Games like Dead Rising prove to developers that they can make money on the Xbox 360 too, outside Japan.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Yeah everybody is screaming that, but do you actually know how much DR units were shipped to Japan? As for as I know DR never made it above number 12 in the weekly software lists. Alot of stores dont even sell it because it has a adult rating and the stores that did didnt even have more than 40 units. Even my local intertoys has more copies of tombraider DS...

 

[Arwin]

Yeah everybody is screaming that, but do you actually know how much DR units were shipped to Japan? As for as I know DR never made it above number 12 in the weekly software lists. Alot of stores dont even sell it because it has a adult rating and the stores that did didnt even have more than 40 units. Even my local intertoys has more copies of tombraider DS...

Which part of outside Japan didn't you understand?

 

[assen]

Only because MS is spending a load of cash on ''buying'' devs to make games for x360. Though MS has the advantage of developing costs getting so high that alot of Japanese devs are thinking about making their games multiplatform.

It doesn't matter if it's ONLY because of this, or ONLY because of that. The uptrend in developer support, even among Japanese developers, is clear, and this is what gives the 360 better chances this generation.

 

[pipo]

Games like Dead Rising prove to developers that they can make money on the Xbox 360 too, outside Japan.

Exactly. From http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14146&page=1

BIZ: You mentioned before that Capcom is proudly supporting the 360, but that system is not having much success in Japan. Being a Japanese company, does the strategy need to change from the publisher's point of view since the console is not being readily adopted?

CB: Two years ago when we made the decision with Microsoft to develop Dead Rising and Lost Planet for 360, in Japan you would have thought we were insane with the state of the market of Xbox in Japan. In hindsight, and I refer back to the comment from Takeuchi-san posted on GameSpot about a month ago, Capcom looks at the global market and we look at the platforms with the perspective of the global market that we sell content to. Even Takeuchi-san said, "Capcom in the past, like most other Japanese publishers today, just looked at the Japanese market. The difference is that Capcom's learned its lesson about that and now looks globally."

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Which part of outside Japan didn't you understand?

Soory I misunderstood. I thought you where talking about DR sales in Japan. Even so, devs have always made money outside Japan. But like I said in my first post, alot of games made by japanese devs are populair in the west (like DR) but alot of Japanese devs dont dev for a console that isnt selling well in Japan. That was the point I tried to make, That MS needs Japanese support for the Japanese games to come out on 360.

 

[22psi]

If this means for me personally that more games will be multi-platform then I am all for it as I will have to buy less consoles. That's why I think a market that is split a bit more evenly is better for everyone.

 

[Mythos]

It doesn't matter if it's ONLY because of this, or ONLY because of that. The uptrend in developer support, even among Japanese developers, is clear, and this is what gives the 360 better chances this generation.

Not neccesarily... not if hardly anyone is buying into the X360.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Only because MS is spending a load of cash on ''buying'' devs to make games for x360.

Right, because Sony doesn't spend any money at all on 1st and 2nd party titles

 

[fulcizombie]

In a perfect world, Sony, MS and nintendo would have made a console together. (it would have the following specs: Cell CPU, 1gig RAM and a Xenos with 30mb eDRAM and the Wii controller) That way, we would get all the games, and the competition would be huge (giving us even better games).

Unfortunately, a perfect world does not exist, and this Sony\MS\Nintendo console thingy would prolly get priced at 2k a pop.

And the online feature would be like $30 a month, simply because there wouldnt be competition

I'd say that in a perfect world Sony and Microsoft would make a single console and Nintendo would make another completely different one ,like the wii is.

This next generation is ridiculous,you need 1000 euros to have both the sony and th MS console and there are a ton of games i want on both of these consoles.

As for this report,who knows how things will be in the end?There are so many factors involved that predictions can't be made.I do see sony having more trouble than expected and MS gaining marketshare,esp. after MS has scored titles like GTA4 and RE5.I can't say anything about the wii cause i don't care about it at all and it could be either a huge success or a disastrous failure.

 

[fulcizombie]

Yeah everybody is screaming that, but do you actually know how much DR units were shipped to Japan? As for as I know DR never made it above number 12 in the weekly software lists. Alot of stores dont even sell it because it has a adult rating and the stores that did didnt even have more than 40 units. Even my local intertoys has more copies of tombraider DS...

Capcom has shipped 50% more copies than what they expected for the entire 2006(900.000 vs. 600.000) and i bet(with the holiday rush and the uniqeness of DR) that Capcom will have shipped DOUBLE(1.2 million). the ammount of copies of what they expected in the end of 2006.

I don't think that they care where they get their money from,money is money in every place of the world...

 

[avaya]

I wonder if this is the same team of analysts who predicted the $800 BOM (and did his maths wrong), last week predicted billion dollar revenue loss and this week complained about production? Oh and they had a moan about the batteries too.

I just hope they have short sold on Sony stock, it seems as if Sony is going to go bankrupt !

Reading the FT today, huge Sony page in Companies & Markets Asia Section. Chubachi and Stringer commented on the negative press. It's apparently à la mode to focus on doom and gloom for Sony. Sony's effectively inseparable from Japan Inc. a poster child in terms of perception in the eyes of the media over there - this idea is slowly trickling into the media worldwide.

Strange that ML take such a drastically different view on the whole business compared to the other banks.

The only way I can see their analysis proving correct is if the diode issue doesn’t clear up – there are no real signs it is either in the short to medium term.

There is a lot of semiconductor inventory (Cell) that Sony has to get through before they can move on to 65nm and even contemplate price cuts. Production slowdown due to the diode component shortage could seriously mess things up for them.

 

[Arwin]

This next generation is ridiculous,you need 1000 euros to have both the sony and th MS console and there are a ton of games i want on both of these consoles.

If you bought the PS2 and the Xbox1 at launch in Europe, you think you'd have spent less? If you want both, just wait a few years. I predict that you can get both for 600 euros TOTAL within 2 years, and going down rapidly after.

 

[AlNom]

Good lord. I tremble, shiver and cringe at the thought of having to work with people like this in the future. And maybe become one of them...

You're a sensible person. Maybe if you work for them, you can set them straight.