Analyst: Xbox and Wii to Break Playstation Domination

[Hardknock]

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20061114/playstation-wii-xbox360.htm

Xbox and Wii to Break Playstation Domination: Analyst

NEW YORK (International Business Times) - Anticipation is growing as Sony and Nintendo prepare for the North American releases of their latest gaming consoles. With Microsoft already set with the Xbox 360, and a strong offering from Nintendo, some experts believe that Sony will lose its tight grip on the worldwide gaming market.

Although Sony plans to launch its Playstation 3 console in North America on November 17, with Nintendo following shortly after, Microsoft already launched its next-generation console last November. The unchallenged twelve-month advantage has given the software maker a sizeable lead.

"The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world’s biggest market," said Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, research analyst for Merrill Lynch.

"We forecast respective market shares at end-FY3/11 of Xbox 360 [at] 39 percent, PS3 [at] 34 percent and Wii [at] 27 percent, thus overturning Sony’s domination of the market with its PS2-based share of 69 percent, and doubling Microsoft and Nintendo’s respective market shares."

The firm further predicts that in Japan, Sony will take the lead with a 57 percent market share, while Nintendo will take the bulk of the rest at 39 percent of the market. Figures for Xbox were not supplied.

In North America, Microsoft will hold the lead with 50 percent while Sony and Nintendo will follow with 27 and 23 percent, respectively.

"In the next-gen console market, we see the end of any common global dominant platform," Kinoshita concludes.

Global:
360: 39%
PS3: 34%
Wii: 27%

North America:
360: 50%
PS3: 27%
Wii: 23%

Japan:
PS3: 57%
Wii: 39%
360: <4%

 

[pipo]

Japan:
360: <4%

Well, at least that sounds about right.

 

[RobertR1]

An even field would be good this time around. I'd like to see Sony and MS going at it by developing their tools at an accelerated pace and throwing good stuff out there for the developers to give us even better games.

Hopefully, we're in for some good gaming in the coming years from this fierce competition!

 

[rabidrabbit]

Those analcysts.
Wonder how they forecast market shares up to year 2011.
Wonder who has ordered the analysis.
There are as many forecasts as there are analysts.
I bet there'll soon (after Nov 17) be another analysis with very different numbers, and after that another with the numbers turned upside down again, and after that another, and another....

 

[Titanio]

An even field would be good this time around. I'd like to see Sony and MS going at it by developing their tools at an accelerated pace and throwing good stuff out there for the developers to give us even better games.

Hopefully, we're in for some good gaming in the coming years from this fierce competition!

I'm not sure how much competition between different platforms promotes competition within software/games..

 

[RobertR1]

I'm not sure how much competition between different platforms promotes competition within software/games..

Studios getting better tools and support means better games. Thus the overall pool of games that us consumers choose from is that of higher quality, in general.

 

[Titanio]

Studios getting better tools and support means better games. Thus the overall pool of games that us consumers choose from is that of higher quality, in general.

If, say, MS and Sony and Nintendo collaborated I'm not sure why tools or the like would be lacking. There'd be the benefit of the collaboration to weigh up here too. Or, tools vendors could continue to compete for the business of developers on one platform.

In any other content industry this would be considered a consumer unfriendly format war (think: home movies). I don't think it promotes competition between the games as such, in fact in some cases it may upset what would otherwise be a level playing field (consider when someone claims that a game's retail performance is down to the platform it is on, for example, or when certain games are to a degree taken out of competition with each other because they're on completely different platforms).

 

[Mummy]

Those analcysts.
Wonder how they forecast market shares up to year 2011.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

In a perfect world, Sony, MS and nintendo would have made a console together. (it would have the following specs: Cell CPU, 1gig RAM and a Xenos with 30mb eDRAM and the Wii controller) That way, we would get all the games, and the competition would be huge (giving us even better games).

Unfortunately, a perfect world does not exist, and this Sony\MS\Nintendo console thingy would prolly get priced at 2k a pop.

And the online feature would be like $30 a month, simply because there wouldnt be competition

 

[Platon]

The only number I can trust in that forecast is the under 4% japanese market share for the 360, apart from that I don't know, but a cutting Sonys global market in half as they do, sounds very drastic and a bit unlikely and I wonder if that would come to pass what the repercussions for Sony would be...

 

[dskneo]

"The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world’s biggest market," said Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, research analyst for Merrill Lynch.

".......Welcome to skysports Tour de france coverage! Lance armstrong is the first competitor to make todaaaayys tour de FRANCE counter-attack lap Stage, followed by 150 competitors once he finishes his lap...
And it begins, there goes Lance debuting todays stage in this beautifull d...... OMG lance armstrong is DOMINATING tour de FRANCE counter-attack lap, certain victory is likely because no one else began racing yet !!!11111ones!!! "



had to. sorry

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

"The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world’s biggest market," said Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, research analyst for Merrill Lynch.

Lol I doubt that. x360 doesnt sell in Japan, x360 sells bad in europa and doesnt even outsell the ps2 in the usa. How in gods name is x360 going to be the ''winner'' if even after a year they still havnt managed to get a decent marketshare.

 

[pascal]

The XBox 360 is selled maybe 50 to 1 less than PS2 here

 

[Kryton]

"The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world’s biggest market," said Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, research analyst for Merrill Lynch.

I wonder if this is the same team of analysts who predicted the $800 BOM (and did his maths wrong), last week predicted billion dollar revenue loss and this week complained about production? Oh and they had a moan about the batteries too.

I just hope they have short sold on Sony stock, it seems as if Sony is going to go bankrupt !

 

[London Geezer]

Good lord. I tremble, shiver and cringe at the thought of having to work with people like this in the future. And maybe become one of them...

 

[assen]

Lol I doubt that. x360 doesnt sell in Japan, x360 sells bad in europa and doesnt even outsell the ps2 in the usa. How in gods name is x360 going to be the ''winner'' if even after a year they still havnt managed to get a decent marketshare.

Japan matters much less than you think.

Do you think the PS3 will outsell the PS2 in the USA in the next, say, 6-9 months? I don't.

360 has a decent share where it should: in the minds of developers and in the lineups of publishers. This is what matters in the long term, not how you compare to the 3x cheaper last-gen console.

 

[Gerry]

The XBox 360 is selled maybe 50 to 1 less than PS2 here

What, in Brazil? Microsoft haven't even started selling the Xbox 360 in Brazil yet have they?

 

[DemoCoder]

Japan matters much less than you think.

Do you think the PS3 will outsell the PS2 in the USA in the next, say, 6-9 months? I don't.

I think sales in the next 6-9 months will be completely limited by supply. That is, they will sell every single PS3 they can produce.

 

[pascal]

What, in Brazil? Microsoft haven't even started selling the Xbox 360 in Brazil yet have they?

Both PS2 and XBox are independentelly imported.

PS2 slim: http://www.submarino.com.br/games.asp?Query=NextLevelPage&ProdTypeId=12&CatId=43449&PrevCatId=43449
Xbox 360: http://www.submarino.com.br/homecac...age&ProdTypeId=12&CatId=49459&PrevCatId=49459

 

[Platon]

The XBox 360 is selled maybe 50 to 1 less than PS2 here

Question thought being if that is because of the price or not. The PS2 is afterall much cheaper and if it indeed the price that sets the limit then that is not really great new for the PS3 being more expensive and all...