Analyst claims Halo 3 will perform better than GTA IV

[Acert93]

Not that it matters, but I think Halo 3 will outsell GTAIV in 2007. The 360 install base has a huge Halo fanbase and will also have a large install base lead through 2007. Between the beta and the free maps this summer being 360 only MS is pushing the Halo fans onto the 360 in 2007. Looking at Gears sales I can easily see Halo 3 (with all the hype MS will have behind it as THE 360 title) breaking 4M in 2007.

There are a lot of factors (like how good they are, hype and marketing, PS3 install base growth, competition), but looking at the ratios last gen we see Halo 2 with over 7M copies on 24M machines and GTAs each selling in the 10M range or so on 130M total machines (or more with the PC). So while Halo is limited to a small market it dominates a larger percentage of that market. So using some rough numbers, if MS has ~18M units by the end of FY2007 and Sony has ~12M by the end of FY2007, using the rough proportions from last gen MS would break 4M Halo copies and Rockstar would be about 2-3M. I know this is really a crude methodology but hey, I wanna be like the analysts!

Now what could really throw a wrench in this is if Halo 3 underwhealms and GTAIV is absolutely the BEST game on both systems. PS3 fans could flock to it and Xbox 360 fans would need to get the bitter taste of Halo out of their mouths. Of course GTAIV has a stigma and age issue, but then again how many pre-teens are buying $500 consoles?

 

[Fillibuster]

Can you please provide a link with evidence that the downloadables will be fundamentally different? I don't think I've seen anything of the kind.

It's been out there for a long time, this was just the first link I found from a google search...
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=68768

 

[assen]

It's been out there for a long time, this was just the first link I found from a google search...
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=68768

Well, that's the same announcement I've read, and I don't read in it that the types of add-ons will be fundamentally different - one of the platforms will get additional island X with three additional missions there, the other will get additional island Y with its own three missions.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Halo 2 sold 7.89 million copies on Xbox according to vgcharts. I'm expecting Halo 2 to hit 4.5 million right out of the gate in 2007. Eventually it will probably outsell Halo 2 IMO. GTAIV will do well and it's tough to make a call on which will do better. They'll both sell incredibly well.

 

[Nesh]

If what mr Gates said is true that most 360 owners didnt own an XBOX beforehand(which means they didnt get their hands on Halo before), if we consider that many of these owners are also huge GTA fans, that GTA has broken selling records, that GTA and Halo belong to different genres and that GTA will exist not on 1 console but on 2 and probably the PC at the same time I see no way of being able to jump to conclusions regarding which is going to sell the most

GTA and Halo arent as correlated with each other in my opinion as the analysts are making them to sound. Also there is no real measure of people who will only opt to buy one game instead of both or one at launch and the other one on a very short period later.

But perhaps they used some kind of statistics that estimated some behaviours which indicated to this and I could be wrong

 

[TheChefO]

Of course GTAIV has a stigma and age issue, but then again how many pre-teens are buying $500 consoles?

Not many, but a <$200 console makes a compelling gift option.

Christmas 2007 possible options:
$200 core + Forza2
$200 core + Halo3
$200 core + *GTA4(not a kids game but many parents are ...ehem )
$200 core + platform game (possibly: Banjo, Viva2, Kameo2, etc)

$250 Wii + wiisports

$400 PS3 + Heavenly Sword
$400 PS3 + GTA4(not a kids game but many parents are ...ehem )
$400 PS3 + ?


*I still think MS screwed up big time by not making Crackdown a pg13 game.

 

[mckmas8808]

Where is this $200 core coming from? You think they will sell the system cheaper than what the Wii cost?

 

[TheChefO]

Where is this $200 core coming from? You think they will sell the system cheaper than what the Wii cost?

No facts, just an assumption based on historical timing and amount of price drops.

As for Wii, they have no reason to drop the price yet. When the market softens, they can consider it. They may decide to match the 360 core price by removing Wii sports but I don't think Nintendo is worried with what MS/Sony are charging/offering yet.

 

[mckmas8808]

No facts, just an assumption based on historical timing and amount of price drops.

But wouldn't it be smart to drop the price to $250 or something higher than that?

 

[NERO]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.

 

[mckmas8808]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.

Trust me. PS3 will have more must haves than just MGS4 and GTA4 this holiday season.

 

[NERO]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.

Ok there are a few more games that will be great. But in terms of sales there are the franchises above and then everything else.

 

[TheChefO]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.

The other x-factor is how gta4 compares to Crackdown for xb360 sales. As it is Crackdown completely outclasses gta3. How gta4 will answer remains to be seen but if Crackdown continues to sell well, they may start second quessing the dollars they put up to secure equal launching of gta4.

Ps3 software sales will obviously lean to gta4. But how big will the userbase be by then that also appreciate a game like gta4? I'm curious what the overlap is right now of gta3 owners and ps3 owners.

I think even if Halo3 pulls another Halo2 (letdown) it will still sell very well. Especially if/when they hit the $200 pricepoint.

My vote, it's up to the games and marketing but overall I agree with Joshua,
I think Halo3 will take the cake.


@ NERO
Are you publicly arguing with yourself?

 

[TheChefO]

Trust me. PS3 will have more must haves than just MGS4 and GTA4 this holiday season.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.

What does the public q3 q4 launch lineup look like?

 

[mckmas8808]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.

What does the public q3 q4 launch lineup look like?

Unfortuntely Sony isn't letting us know. But some potential games are Naughty Dog's Uncharted, NT's Heavenly Sword, and Insomniac's Rachet and Clank. That's the only 1st and 2nd party that I can think about right now.

And Devil May Cry 4 should be huge too.

 

[infinity4]

am i the only person who is looking forward to pro evo 7 for ps3??? was disgusted with 360 pes 6 version, hopefully konami keeps its policy, to always being generous to japs systems

 

[scooby_dooby]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.

The main prob;em with Josh's analysis imo, is that GTA was never available on XBOX from day 1, so it's not possible to accurately judge how many units the XBOX userbase would've purchased if they could've gotten it on day 1.

In addition, 50% of 360 owners did not own Xbox, which means they are probably ex Playstation owners, and also, not huge Halo fans.

Also, I think Halo 3 will suffer from the dissapointment of Halo 2. Halo 2 was riding on the success of Halo 1, and set records, but the game itself was a let down for many. I doubt Halo 3 will be more succesful or even as succesful as Halo 2.

GTA is riding on the red hot San Andreas, by a mile teh best game in the series, and assuming that the game itself is as awesome as it should be, I think it will be no contest, GTA all the way.

 

[NERO]

I just want to mention that my putting GTA4 (multi-platform) and Halo 3 above everything else is because of a borderline irrationality between consumers with loyalty to these two brands. Both games could be sub-par and still sell 5 million each. There is no fancy analysis involved. I feel that having two platforms and an overall install base will give GTA4 the edge. The PS2 to GTA attachment numbers are not necessarily relevant to the PS3. The PS2 reached a price point that made its install base expand but fracture. It was cheap enough to appeal to many folk for many different games, the Maddens, DDRs, GTAs and Katamaris of the world. There was no predictability with why who purchased what. The PS3 is not there and has a much smaller but growing base that needs more killer apps. Motor Storm will be the next but for the holidays GTA4 will be looming.

 

[infinity4]

i am sure majority of majority xbox 360 owners who never bought a xb before bought a 360 because of GTA IV announcement with exclusive contents. we cannot say anything about how good it will sell until we play the game. so far i have yet to get a single gameplay information from rockstar about the game.

edit: i am bad at wording english. sorry about that.

 

[TheChefO]

Trust me. PS3 will have more must haves than just MGS4 and GTA4 this holiday season...


...Unfortuntely Sony isn't letting us know. But some potential games are Naughty Dog's Uncharted, NT's Heavenly Sword, and Insomniac's Rachet and Clank. That's the only 1st and 2nd party that I can think about right now.

And Devil May Cry 4 should be huge too.

When did MGS4 get confirmed for this year?