Analyst predict Xbox 360 will beat PlayStation 3 - Inq

[Acert93]

Care to expand a bit more on this? To be more specific: why do you think MS will do great in US and not in the EU (except for dev support)? Why the difference? Why dont US-gamers want PS games (MGS, GTA, DMC etc) to the same extent as EU-gamers does? Cant MS put up a big fight in EU as they will do in US? Because it seems to me, winning over EU shouldnt be too hard, it is not like PS3 is developed here.

Well there are some big differences between EU gamers and US gamers. e.g. on the surface

EU is big into F1 racing and Soccer, neither of which are important in the US.

In the US we are big in (American) Football and Nascar (yuck!) and, importantly, FPS. Madden does not sell well at all outside NA.

Sony has done a good job in courting and establishing important brands and software in EU. Some EU gamers could elaborate more than I could as I am not from there.

In the US, MS's close ties with PC developers seem to be a big positive, and the titles MS focuses on tend to be made by US devs developers for US customers. Even the new PDZ the British accent of Joanna is dropped.

I think the tendancy is to treat EU as an extension of US tastes. It truly is not--just ask the EU gamers here! There is some overlap, but not as much as we often assume. Sony has done a good job of recognizing how EU is a unique market and needs to be nurtured--and it seems to have paid off handsomely.

 

[expletive]

Except, looking at June 05 NPD figures, the market split was like this:

PS2: 59.9%
Xbox: 28.3%
GC: 11.8%

What if MS Gained 12% on Sony this generation and the numbers looked like this:

PS3: 47%
360: 40%
Revo 13%

How do you think all the manufacturers would feel about these numbers?

IMHO:

1. Kutaragi would be fired
2. MS would sign for it now
3. Nintendo would be profitable

Since pretty much everyone expects MS to gain SOME market share this generation, I think MS gaining 12% is very reasonable. Knowing the advantage they had from the original PSX, this would be catastrophic for Sony imo.

What do you guys think? Are these #s reasonable? How would each company view them if they turned out like this?

J

 

[expletive]

Well there are some big differences between EU gamers and US gamers. e.g. on the surface

EU is big into F1 racing and Soccer, neither of which are important in the US.

In the US we are big in (American) Football and Nascar (yuck!) and, importantly, FPS. Madden does not sell well at all outside NA.

Sony has done a good job in courting and establishing important brands and software in EU. Some EU gamers could elaborate more than I could as I am not from there.

In the US, MS's close ties with PC developers seem to be a big positive, and the titles MS focuses on tend to be made by US devs developers for US customers. Even the new PDZ the British accent of Joanna is dropped.

I think the tendancy is to treat EU as an extension of US tastes. It truly is not--just ask the EU gamers here! There is some overlap, but not as much as we often assume. Sony has done a good job of recognizing how EU is a unique market and needs to be nurtured--and it seems to have paid off handsomely.

Well EU is getting to 'origen' first so it seems MS has finally caught on!

J

 

[Gholbine]

Can someone explain why The Enquirer is so biased against Sony/Playstation?

 

[liverkick]

It's amazing how many people believe that the Playstation3 is a sure bet to lead next generation. There's no such thing as a sure bet.

Equally amazing is the consistent focus on MS' apparent momentum without much incisive analysis on how Sony is somehow losing theirs in return. It seems like some people are keen to look for chinks simply because they assume they should be showing up any minute now.

 

[liverkick]

Can someone explain why The Enquirer is so biased against Sony/Playstation?

Nvidia by proxy?

 

[Acert93]

Can someone explain why The Enquirer is so biased against Sony/Playstation?

Well, the Inquirer is... well... err... hmmm... How do you say this eloquently?



They were founded by the king of all trolls and enjoy stirring the kettle of doom? It really goes in cycles... they hate on everyone... total rumor mongers and wrong 90% of the time. They report ANYTHING they hear.

But they are right sometimes and they LOVE the attention. So meh. Just don't get worked up about it... realize if THEY are saying it and no one else is, 99% chance it is wrong.

 

[Lysander]

I think MS has too many monkey's working in the advertising board room.

true (the only positive person in MS is P. Moore)

 

[Teasy]

Revolution will sell only 500,000 from launch right through Christmas? Anyone with a bit of sense would know that's an impossibility, Nintendo fans will buy it in droves on launch as usual.

 

[Inane_Dork]

Can someone explain why The Enquirer is so biased against Sony/Playstation?

Here's an interesting insight into the workings of the Inq.
IMO, such people should not have any power as they clearly have no responsibility.

 

[_phil_]

i don't know how you can claim to predict anything on hardware sales when this hardware market relies mostly on software value.And get paid for that.

 

[Magnum PI]

as they have a skeleton in the closet, how much faith can you have in their statement ?

http://www.pjfraudinfocenter.com/
http://www.securitiesfraudfyi.com/piper_jaffray.html

it was also the case the case of the bernstein cabinet, the one which claimed xbox to be profitable, december 2002 as they recommended enron (superperformer) weeks before bankruptcy.

i guess this kind of establishment have nothing against some money in exchange of making a statement.

 

[Titanio]

the numbers I mentioned are for the entire year, June 2003 - June 2004, not for a single month.

I don't think they are, I think they're just looking at June 03 and June 04 in isolation. Their June 04 figures do indeed come out at 33% and June 03 at 23% so..

Do you have a link to June 04-June 05 numbers?

I'd have to look the latter figures up (June04 to June05), but figures for Jan 05 to August 05 are in my first post:

PS2: 60.14%
Xbox: 27.74%
GC: 12.12%

I think it's best to stick to calendar years also, picking arbitrary starting points can skew figures.

What if MS Gained 12% on Sony this generation and the numbers looked like this:

PS3: 47%
360: 40%
Revo 13%

How do you think all the manufacturers would feel about these numbers?

IMHO:

1. Kutaragi would be fired

I think Sony would be doing very well to hold on to virtually half the market in the US next gen. To be honest, though, I think that comes more down to Nintendo.

 

[avaya]

Sony's stength in the EU and PAL regions as a whole is due to marketing.

As an example Sony are primary sponsors with MasterCard and FoMoCo for the UEFA Champions League - the biggest football club competition in the world. If you watch a CL match every single advertising board in the stadium will for at least 1/4 of a match show a PlayStation2 logo. They get the conscious and subconscious attention of their target audience, 18-34, for ~20mins at a time.

Sony even secured a deal with FIFA for World Cup advertising. Sony also holds the official F1 license. They really are consilidating their position in this market.

At the current rate of growth it would not be surprising to see the EU/PAL market having the most hardware sales next generation.

Microsoft has it's work cut out in Europe. It's by no means easy.

 

[Acert93]

I'd have to look the latter figures up (June04 to June05), but figures for Jan 05 to August 05 are in my first post:

PS2: 60.14%
Xbox: 27.74%
GC: 12.12%

I think it's best to stick to calendar years also, picking arbitrary starting points can skew figures.

Calendar Year and Year-on-Year numbers are relevant sales data in their on respects. Year-on-Year performance includes all sales periods (highs and lows) and demonstrates a momentum factor if compared against a product in the same market. Year-on-Year is a very common method, I don't see the problem with it.

But looking at half-year data is useless. Isolating 6 months total that ignore the holiday season--when the typical business does between 75-90% of sales--can be very misleading and are not comparable to the data extracted from Year-on-Year totals. To put it simply: If most companies put much weight behind the first 6 months of the year they would project dire straights, if not forclosure. That is how bad, and often misleading, that sales period is.

Year-on-Year and Calendar Year, both of which include a holiday season, are well established methods in market analysis. Projections and numbers from the non-holiday season can be misleading. Holiday price cuts, "killer apps" available after September 1st, etc... can significantly shift consumer focus during the most vital sales period.

You can win total sales for the year, even if you are behind for 9 months, just as long as you make a significant win in the last 3 months of the year.

 

[Titanio]

Calendar Year and Year-on-Year numbers are relevant sales data in their on respects. Year-on-Year performance includes all sales periods (highs and lows) and demonstrates a momentum factor if compared against a product in the same market. Year-on-Year is a very common method, I don't see the problem with it.

I don't disagree, my only problem with it is you then have 12 sets of figures for every year and I ain't going to go compiling those People would then also just pick the figure they like the look of most.

But looking at half-year data is useless. Isolating 6 months total that ignore the holiday season--when the typical business does between 75-90% of sales--can be very misleading and are not comparable to the data extracted from Year-on-Year totals. To put it simply: If most companies put much weight behind the first 6 months of the year they would project dire straights, if not forclosure. That is how bad, and often misleading, that sales period is.

I know, but we only have 05 figures up to August, or at least that's all I have.

I kind of doubt they'll change much through the rest of the year, especially with a $99 PS2 still to come.

 

[expletive]

I think Sony would be doing very well to hold on to virtually half the market in the US next gen. To be honest, though, I think that comes more down to Nintendo.

I dunno, that would mean Sony would have almost no advantage going into the following generation. Considering where they came from with the PSX, two gens later they would have squandered their entire advantage. To me, that sounds like a total disaster for Sony.

Of course this is just based on analyst predictions, MS actually has to GAIN market share for this to matter.

J

 

[EndR]

Sony even secured a deal with FIFA for World Cup advertising. Sony also holds the official F1 license. They really are consilidating their position in this market.

At the current rate of growth it would not be surprising to see the EU/PAL market having the most hardware sales next generation.

Microsoft has it's work cut out in Europe. It's by no means easy.

Hmm.. Which World Cup is Sony gonna do some advertising in? Last time I heard, MS was one of the official sponsors of the 2006 world cup in germany.. Xbox and Xbox360 were the "official" consoles...

Marketing-wise.. MS is up there with Sony...

 

[Titanio]

I dunno, that would mean Sony would have almost no advantage going into the following generation. Considering where they came from with the PSX, two gens later they would have squandered their entire advantage. To me, that sounds like a total disaster for Sony.

It's down to MS and Nintendo, but it's difficult to maintain a very dominant position in a competitive market. There's nothing to say that they'd lose further share the following gen, though, they may consolidate what they have.

Or not. Or they may maintain their current share. Or grow it.

These are just predictions/guesses. I recall analyst predictions coming into this gen that look laughable in hindsight. Yours and mine are probably as good, but I wouldn't venture to guess how things might pan out in the US. Japan and Europe seem easier, and thus to some the US seems more interesting, but to be honest, Europe may be the real story in absolute numbers next-gen, or if not, the gen after that, as it grows.

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Prediction of console war winner

I dunno, that would mean Sony would have almost no advantage going into the following generation. Considering where they came from with the PSX, two gens later they would have squandered their entire advantage. To me, that sounds like a total disaster for Sony.

Of course this is just based on analyst predictions, MS actually has to GAIN market share for this to matter.

J

Analysts have bad history of prediction. Look at internet boom and flop. All analysts were wrong no? Selling first gives big advantage to xbox360 but lack of HD-DVD or Blu-Ray can hurt in long run. Look at GameCube, if DVD compatible, sales would be much better, lower price did not help. Analyst is right that 2007 will be big year for PS3 due to HD era beginning. But analyst's specific numbers is silly attempt to sound like he knows what he talks about and clear evidence that he is making things up. So overall, analyst right about one thing that everyone already knows and everything else he is making up.