Well, this isn't really the best of examples to bring up here, because if teh kiddies want a PS3 and parents bring home a 360, well, let's just say it might not be a very merry christmas that year...
Xbox sales to slow ahead of PS3 and Wii launch(?)
- Thread starter ZiFF
- Start date
My preferences are probably known by now, so take it or leave it, but IMO that is still an optimistic viewpoint.
People who go by price will not want a 360, they will want a Wii. It's cheaper.
People who go by "high end"/"ultimate"/"random buzzword" will want a PS3.
The 360 will be squeezed in-between these two archetypical shopping behaviours. It pretty much has to stand or fall by its games. But that's not an advantage. All consoles have games, and all consoles have AAA exclusives. Its games don't make the 360 particularly attractive in comparison.
The other two have incremental strengths. The Wii will be the cheapest console of its generation and will have an interestingly different controller. The PS3 will be the high-end monster console. The 360 is ... well ... the one that has Live?
I think it's only normal that sales for one platform slow down a bit when a new one comes out, and now we have not one but two new consoles comign out at around the same time, and it will definitely affect other platforms sales.
MS needs to release some seriously big games (not more silly sports games everyone already has) around that time to make sure sales don't go down too much.
MS needs to release some seriously big games (not more silly sports games everyone already has) around that time to make sure sales don't go down too much.
Riping of the wrapping paper full of excitement, thinking: it is a big hard box what could it be? a PS3? and finaly exposing the inner box... mooom you f@"#!!??¤¤
...inefficient
Veteran
Cpt. Obvious to the rescue!
Summer Sales are down, meaning MS has a bit of stock at both retailers and storage right now. They also have not had a big release since... GRAW? They had a quick run of FNR3-Oblivion-GRAW in the EARLY Spring and since then the typical boring, uneventful summer. Table Tennis, MotoGP, Prey, Dead Rising, and... ? Not bad games, but definately no AAA games to generate new interest/sales.
Software drives sales. As there has been no change in the price of the console and summer is slow we are seeing the fruit of that.
Future 360 sales will largely depend on
1. The AAA Games. Will Gears of War, Forza 2, and Viva Pinata move units? More importantly how will consumers respond to Halo 3, Mass Effect, and Bioshock in 2007? Will consumers go for the cheaper Xbox 360 to play GTA4?
2. Bargin bin. Kameo, PGR3, PDZ, etc are all now $29. GOOD bargin games are a compelling sales tool when combined with...
3. Price drops. $299/$399 is expensive for a console in the states. Hardcore gamers can plead their case, but when it comes to the mainstream-gamers and casual-gamers who drive longterm industry sales that is a hefty price tag to choke on. Now a $199 next gen console with (eventually) a robust library of $19 games -- that can be an enticing "spontanteous purchase".
4. Wii & PS3 success and pricing. How well do they sell? How good are the games? How do they appeal to consumers who are on the fence? How is pricing figuring into the discussion?
Basically MS got their first bite of the market based on being "Xbox", now it is up to software to drive sales.
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
Agreed with all those points and also the most important that everybody is overlooking..
Not everybody who is willing/wants to to be a 360 already has one. Reasons for people to not have one currently are price (you mentioned that), and also curiousity about the competitors.
To assume that somebody who has the means to purchase a 360 but has not done so yet because they are waiting to see about the Wii and/or PS3, will certainly purchase a Wii and/or PS3 instead of a 360 is a tremendously large false assumption.
What happens when those waiting for the Wii get to try it, find the graphics subpar and the control scheme annoying after the novelty wears off?
What happens when those waiting for the PS3, find the graphics no better than the 360 and the price tag unpalatable in comparison?
What happens when those waiting for the Wii because they don't want to pay for a 360, find the graphics on par with last generation and decide they'll wait for the 360 to drop to Wii pricing levels, rather than buy a lesser console now?
There are a number of reasons and circumstances that can arise, and it appears that most in this thread are under the assumption that somehow the majority of people who want the 360 have already purchased one.. therefore, it's dead because everybody else is waiting for the Wii and PS3 and will necessarily purchase one of those instead.
It's simply not true. A large portion of people waiting to see what the Wii and PS3 have to offer will end up purchasing a 360 instead. For reasons Acert mentioned as well as those I've outlined above.
Frankly I don't see how anyone can suggest that sales will slow down for MS.
Does anyone here REALLY believe the 360 will be selling less than 200,000 units per month during the Christmas holiday shopping season?
Keep in mind that the xbox normally sold around 1.5 million systems between November and December in the US alone. That's hardly a "slow down" from current 360 sales.
Does anyone here REALLY believe the 360 will be selling less than 200,000 units per month during the Christmas holiday shopping season?
Keep in mind that the xbox normally sold around 1.5 million systems between November and December in the US alone. That's hardly a "slow down" from current 360 sales.
I sooo disagree.... what you are leaving out of the equation is the hardcore gamers for each console (PS3&Wii). That will go in early for purchase (if the console does'nt clearly suck). And you'll see a high buy rate off the back.
For the holiday 06 the hardcore X360 romantic period is over and the gamer types are most part casual/consumer looking out for cost, kool factor, and some kind of other value..i.e types of games,etc...
However, the question is how long will hardcore gamers look to buy through...Wii & PS3 and does X360 have a compelling message to keep sell through up?
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
No, I'm not.
Because the hardcore gamers for each console have exactly zero impact on 360 purchases, which is the title and focus of this thread.
Again, the hardcore gamers are the ones driveing demand and value towards the PS3 and the Wii. They bring in some of those Casual/mainstream looking to purchase a next gen console and are debateing a purchase. And...IF the noise is large then driving sales for Wii&PS3 takes a big bite through the holiday after that then the field start to level off...
My theory is that the hardcore market in NA consists of roughly 2 million consumers. If you check the sales numbers of any console release since the Dreamcast, you'll see an easy 2 million sales followed by either an upswing in sales, such as the PS2, or a downswing in sales, such as every other console (DC, GC, Xbox, Xbox 360). So I think the hardcore market is flushed out for the Xbox 360 and any sales impact would be in terms of casual consumers.
But Acert has it right; Microsoft has probably an excess of a couple million Xbox 360s. They need to work through these, especially if they will eventually introduce a new SKU containing a larger hard drive and HDMI capability.
not really it was the holiday period
for the 6 months previous to the november introduction of the gc/xbox the ps2 was selling ~300k a month in the US (mainly hampered by supply issues), but during november with the introduction of gc/xbox it jumped up to 900k and then sold 1.9million in dec
sorry for ressurecting such an old topic
But we have some clue now, the 360 sales didn't slow during chrismmass.
I'm asking myself if my question deserve a topic, but I guess that if it does I'm not the one to properly introduce the subject...(english issue...)
Given the big titles that will launch on the box this year, and the fact that MS will cut the price before end 2007, what are your guesstimation for thez 360 by fall 2007?
Mine MS sold to consumers ~8 millions units til fall 2006, ~1 million til fall 2005, so Ms sold to consumers berween 6 and 7 millions units this year.
My guess Ms will to at least an half better during 2007, so for me 10 millions during 2007
But we have some clue now, the 360 sales didn't slow during chrismmass.
I'm asking myself if my question deserve a topic, but I guess that if it does I'm not the one to properly introduce the subject...(english issue...)
Given the big titles that will launch on the box this year, and the fact that MS will cut the price before end 2007, what are your guesstimation for thez 360 by fall 2007?
Mine MS sold to consumers ~8 millions units til fall 2006, ~1 million til fall 2005, so Ms sold to consumers berween 6 and 7 millions units this year.
My guess Ms will to at least an half better during 2007, so for me 10 millions during 2007
A new SKU imminent?
sorry for ressurecting such an old topic
But we have some clue now, the 360 sales didn't slow during chrismmass.
I'm asking myself if my question deserve a topic, but I guess that if it does I'm not the one to properly introduce the subject...(english issue...)
Given the big titles that will launch on the box this year, and the fact that MS will cut the price before end 2007, what are your guesstimation for thez 360 by fall 2007?
Mine MS sold to consumers ~8 millions units til fall 2006, ~1 million til fall 2005, so Ms sold to consumers berween 6 and 7 millions units this year.
My guess Ms will to at least an half better during 2007, so for me 10 millions during 2007
I think MS will have a very good year in 2007.
First, there will probably be a price drop. They did some kind of offer here in Europe in form of a coupon (send the coupon back, get €50 from the price of a Premium), so a "full" price drop is the next logical step.
Second, there is software. GTA4 and Halo3 will be huge, especially in US (EU to a lesser extent). Yes, GTA4 is not exclusive, but it's day 1 for PS3 and 360, not timed exclusive, and the 360 will be the cheaper machine to play it. And the rest of the lineup for 2007 is extremely good. MS' headstart, buying-happy userbase, and good software tools seem to pay a lot with 3rd party.
Third, the environment changed. I think many people staid on the fence until PS3 and Wii were released, in order to keep their options open. Now that all three "next/new" gen machines are here, 360 looks pretty good. Many people were predicting that MS would be steamrolled at E3 2K6, then after TGS, and then at the actual launch for Wii and PS3. It didn't happen.
