Analysts predict Xbox 360 will beat PlayStation 3
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=26588
Comments?
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=26588
Comments?
Analyst predict Xbox 360 will beat PlayStation 3 - Inq
- Thread starter compres
- Start date
duh it's going to be out sooner(I used to work for PiperJaffray when they were owned by USBank belive it or not, they are a crap small time brokerage based out of Minneapolsi) of course it's going to lead, but to 2011 I'm pretty sure thats a big no. I would expect PS3 to take the lead here in the states by 2008 at the VERY VERY VERY latest.
Analyst: The Xbox 360 will have an early lead over PS3.
Reporter: Wow!
With a 6-12mo lead time in product release and, presumably a larger library of game when the PS3 hits the market, all I can say is.... DUH.
Console sale wars are for 5-6 years. Further, a LOT of analysts see the PS3 being ahead at the end--something like 80-100M units to 45-55M units. Once the PS3 has a price drop and the library of games come splashing in the market will shift I am sure.
Remember: The majority of console sales are done at the $200 price point and below. Price points are important. Sony did not hit 90M PS2 sales selling it at $300. They sold a decent amount of units at the higher price, but the low end sales are indeed impressive.
Also, what is this analyst smoking? The PS3 should get 15M sales in JAPAN by 2008! I could be off, but I thought Sony had 30M+ PS2 sales in Japan. And Sony is pretty dominant in Europe also.
Do note that the article, at least the parts QUOTED, don't mention who will be ahead in 2011
The only interesting part from INQ:
More Inquirer sensationalist trash. The headline for isn't the least bit backed up by the articles content. IT could read 'XB360 to beat PS3 for sevral months' or what have you. But if PJ were predicting an outright victory the article doesn't mention as much.
And as for investors...MS share prices have remained virtually static for years and given the losses incurred in their gaming division the past years, it'd be a mighty optimistic investor who splashed out on MS shares in the belief the XB360 would get a worthwhile return on their investment.
And as for investors...MS share prices have remained virtually static for years and given the losses incurred in their gaming division the past years, it'd be a mighty optimistic investor who splashed out on MS shares in the belief the XB360 would get a worthwhile return on their investment.
i guess that's the same kind of analyst who, in december 2002, said the xbox was soon profitable
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2683
why care about this propaganda ?
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2683
why care about this propaganda ?
scooby_dooby
Legend
First of all these are US sales predictions, They have X360 as the market leader in the USA all the way through 2008.
the analysts predictions were this:
Installed Base
2005 XBOX 360 - 1.1 Million
2006 XBOX 360 - 7.1 Million
2006 PS3 - 1 Million
2007 - XBOX 360 - 14.3 Million
2007 - PS3 - 7 Million
2008 - XBOX 360 - 19.6 Million
2008 - PS3 - 15.6 Million
So they have the X360 gaining a 6million console lead in 2006, after that they have Sony gradually catching up, selling slightly less consoles than MS in 2007, then selling 2.5 million consoles more than MS in 2008.
the analysts predictions were this:
Installed Base
2005 XBOX 360 - 1.1 Million
2006 XBOX 360 - 7.1 Million
2006 PS3 - 1 Million
2007 - XBOX 360 - 14.3 Million
2007 - PS3 - 7 Million
2008 - XBOX 360 - 19.6 Million
2008 - PS3 - 15.6 Million
So they have the X360 gaining a 6million console lead in 2006, after that they have Sony gradually catching up, selling slightly less consoles than MS in 2007, then selling 2.5 million consoles more than MS in 2008.
Last edited by a moderator:
Magnum PI said:i guess that's the same kind of analyst who, in december 2002, said the xbox was soon profitable
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2683
why care about this propaganda ?
Well, IF the ps3 has linux available w/o the need of a hack, I am buying one(screw windows). Otherwise I dont think it has anything special to beat the 360 this generation.
Biggest advantage sony has is their hype and mindshare, lets see how well that holds up this generation.
Right now, looking at these past 2 years, I really wonder how did the ps2 manage to sell so well, I wonder if the close to a year lead in availability is really the key. If so sony's in deep trouble.
That makes more sense and seems like a rational guess (predictions are just that: someones guess).scooby_dooby said:
I think the US will be close, so I could see something like the above scenario playing out. Although 1M PS3's in the US in Fall 2006? Even if Sony launches in the fall, unless it is really expensive ($450 or up) and/or they have supply limits I cannot fathom Sony ONLY selling 1M units.
I could see them selling 3M units in the US if they hit the write price point and make it available.
Scoob, got a link for the above?
Lets expand 'mindshare' to 90M happy PS2 customers who are in love with the PS franchises (MGS, GTA, GT, Tekken, etc).compres said:
Further, Sony has a really nice ace in the hole called: Dev support. They have more than they know what to do with.
Xbox gained some nice momentum this past year, MS has proven to be a real player in the market, has gotten some nice dev support (especially compared to last gen beginning), and Live is online now (just when broadband penetration is more common than narrowband), etc.
But for every step forward, they take a half step back (half baked E3 showing for example). They have a large launch lineup, but not many killers it seems (at most 4 if PGR3, Oblivion, PDZ, and Kameo live up to their hype + Madden as a mainstream game).
The PS3 is going to be an excellent product (with some great extras like BR for those interested) + a ton of dev support, namely the killer franchises those 90M people love. And devs have been working with CELL/NV40 SLI for a while, so the end result should be some KILLER launch titles.
The US may be close, but world wide I am not sure anything can slow, let alone stop, the Sony tidal wave. MS may make a good showing (I think the 55/90 split of former forcasts sums up my guess) but I don't see Sony making any real mistakes. They wet the mouths and have given devs what they want for the most part (especially in RSX and Cg).
scooby_dooby
Legend
Acert93 said:
Yes, but you also have to consider the period from 2006-2008. That's the period where MS has a dominant market lead, expecially for the first 2 years, that will probably result in the X360 having more games and drawing more 3rd party developers who are looking to cash in on the NA market leader.
So, this will probably be the FIRST time Sony has had the system with LESS support, the first time the competition actually offered more games. Combine that with a potentially lower price-point, and brand loyalty may not be nearly as important as people think.
Nintendo had the most hardcore brand loyalty you can get, but gamers went with the system with the most games. That's always been the PS, but next-gen situations may be reversed.
The winner will be who-NakedZ- said:
1. Has the most variety of AAA titles to appeal to a wide market of gamers
2. Has the largest library of good games
3. Can hit the important price points quickest--and catch their opponent with their pants down
4. Have sly marketing that portrays a superior image and makes their item "must have" iPod like status
The problem I see with the Xbox 360 is of their big franchises I don't see many that have "name" recognition that Sony seems to have across the board. Halo... and then everything else.
Jade Empire, Forza, PGR, Fable, Banjo, Conker, Kameo, Perfect Dark, Ninja Guiden, Ghost Recon, DoA, MechAssault, and so forth are NICE franchises--some are great AAA games--but they don't have the name or fan following yet.
MS seems incapable of locking up certain exclusives as well. Splinter Cell should have been locked up. Bizarre (PGR) should not have been left to go make multiplatform titles for Sega. Prince of Persia would have been another good title to lock up early.
Glancing over at Sony:
GT, GTA, MGS, Tekken, FF, DMC, ... I am gonna stop there because it is pretty obvious: Note how Sony has all these AAA titles that are known by their abbreviation!
MS's biggest benefit right now is PC ports (and now their Vista future). Doom 3, Half-Life 2, FarCry, etc... that is transfering to the Xbox 360 with Quake 4, Prey, etc... The question is since the PS3 has a NV GPU will Sony start seeing this love. To a degree I think so.
I believe MS has the name brands to make a tough fight in the US. I think they are VERY intune with the US gamer. But worldwide I am not seeing the games that sell systems.
Of course that can change. Halo was new last gen. GTA3, the first popular GTA, was new last gen. MS also has a lot of support this time.
But as they say: Better one in the hand than two in the bush. And for that reason alone I think Sony is the default pick to win in total console sales.
But when it comes to profits, well, Nintendo has shown you can be profitable with a smaller install base. MS's success will be, in many ways, be determined with what they do with the 40-50M customers they do get. Do they make them MS gamers, are they dedicated to the MS franchises, or are they STILL relying on Halo.
That's totally true, but you have to agree that any company beating the PS3 for anything close to a year's span is a big shift.-NakedZ- said:
