All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+
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djskribbles
Legend
Exaggerating much? Neither system had very good exclusives. That's probably why third-party titles dominated. KZ was the highest selling exclusive at 270k.
looking at that list it appears... over 620k in 3 xbox exclusives compared to top 3 405k ish on ps4?, a machine that sold 200k more pieces of hardware. Not to mention all three were rated higher across the board
You're assuming that both consoles are severely supply restricted.
Which I don't think will exactly the case going into late December. The initial frenzy has pretty much passed and still having stock at a lot of outlets is showing that one console is not exactly supply constrained.
Probably still mostly representative of the ratios unless you see some dramatic reason for people to buy online on one platform over the other.
All my purchases this gen have been online, but I suspect that it's still the exception rather than the rule.
djskribbles
Legend
I wasn't trying to say that the PS4's exclusives outsold the X1's in total. My point was that the quality of the X1's exclusives doesn't explain the considerable gap in third-party software sales. I mean I think that was the point Johnny was trying to make... unless it was just a random (and subjective I might add) comment.
Neither system was great in terms of exclusive software IMO. To say the X1's exclusives were 'way better' is a huge exaggeration considering they were both mediocre at best, which is why I think third-party software did better at retail.
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Same for Killer Instinct though...
I dont think the PS4/One platform splits are too bad once you realize the hardware split was 55/45 which isn't too far off a lot of the software. Add in later launch, more/better exclusives on One.
Latest GAF guesstimates, some of these numbers are probably off by a little bit, namely PS4, Wii, PS3, etc, but should be somewhere in the ballpark. I think PS4 is 1.138m personally, and I think PS3 is 420k. Using the bigger numbers would also fulfill that PS3+PS4>X1+360 (by the barest of possible margins)
Also from creamsugar
Which works if you use PS4=1138k and PS3=420k (these were both numbers dropped anonymously in the GAF thread that had the ring of truth to me)
So the most likely current update (and GAF sales experts agree) is
Jeez, this shit is like chinese algebra. It's annoying when you have margin of error on top of margin of error because you're using two fuzzy numbers to calculate. Oh well, these numbers should be reasonably close.
djskribbles
Legend
Really only BF4 and CoD were close to the hardware split, and those two games were heavily pushed as Xbox One games. Also worth mentioning is that KZ is the only FPS exclusive (though I honestly don't believe it had much of an effect).
NBA Live was also close to the hardware split, but I can't see many people buying that turd, not when 2K14 is so much better.
NBA Live was also close to the hardware split, but I can't see many people buying that turd, not when 2K14 is so much better.
Personally I think it's context. X1 did shockingly well consider.
-All the huge launch negativity/DRM
-Tons of rumors of catastrophic yields
-$100 higher price point (this one is huge)
-Apparently weaker hardware
-Moar Kinect hate/backlash
I mean we heard rumors of 4:1 in USA and 8:1 in EU, PS4>X1 supply a few months ago. Reality is nothing close to that.
Edit: I forgot we even had Pachter predicting PS4>X1 by 66% a few days ago too (1.25 vs 750k).
Further signs look good that One can take Dec NPD, which means that as of Jan 1 X1 can be ahead in the USA, which truly I think is kind of amazing given all the obstacles. Also you have the fact hardware revenue was roughly the same between PS4/X1 given the X1's higher price.
Even worldwide, say Sony is up to ~3m now (which is generous), that still only gives them a 3:2 worldwide advantage on X1, and again given all the negatives above that's impressive. The key for X1 will be securing enough install base that 3rd party support is secure throughout the gen, and the early going looks very good for that. Publishers wont be ignoring 2+million consoles already out there.
And if you compare it to PS3 v 360 it's also excellent. MS had every right to get blown away considering PS3 was facing a year deficit and a 599 price tag. Now PS4 has the advantage in price, and is launching at the same time, yet Xbox still did fairly well.
Going forward, it depends when MS wants to do a price drop to 399. If we assume they do it in late 14, then you can look at most of 2014 as a holding action to not fall too far behind. For Sony it will be about how much supply they can get out there and how much demand remains in spring.
-All the huge launch negativity/DRM
-Tons of rumors of catastrophic yields
-$100 higher price point (this one is huge)
-Apparently weaker hardware
-Moar Kinect hate/backlash
I mean we heard rumors of 4:1 in USA and 8:1 in EU, PS4>X1 supply a few months ago. Reality is nothing close to that.
Edit: I forgot we even had Pachter predicting PS4>X1 by 66% a few days ago too (1.25 vs 750k).
Further signs look good that One can take Dec NPD, which means that as of Jan 1 X1 can be ahead in the USA, which truly I think is kind of amazing given all the obstacles. Also you have the fact hardware revenue was roughly the same between PS4/X1 given the X1's higher price.
Even worldwide, say Sony is up to ~3m now (which is generous), that still only gives them a 3:2 worldwide advantage on X1, and again given all the negatives above that's impressive. The key for X1 will be securing enough install base that 3rd party support is secure throughout the gen, and the early going looks very good for that. Publishers wont be ignoring 2+million consoles already out there.
And if you compare it to PS3 v 360 it's also excellent. MS had every right to get blown away considering PS3 was facing a year deficit and a 599 price tag. Now PS4 has the advantage in price, and is launching at the same time, yet Xbox still did fairly well.
Going forward, it depends when MS wants to do a price drop to 399. If we assume they do it in late 14, then you can look at most of 2014 as a holding action to not fall too far behind. For Sony it will be about how much supply they can get out there and how much demand remains in spring.
djskribbles
Legend
Who said the X1 did poorly? It even has a very good chance of coming out on top in December (in the US). But it doesn't matter at this point because supply won't meet demand.
Sony will maintain a lead because they started production earlier. Going forward is when I see the gap widening, unless MS drops the price. I don't see that happening anytime soon, though.
Sony will maintain a lead because they started production earlier. Going forward is when I see the gap widening, unless MS drops the price. I don't see that happening anytime soon, though.
rokkerkory
Regular
Really happy with next-gen sales... good start.
hmmm I would of thought xbone would of sold more
but it looks like sony have made a push for the USA & UK (as they know they will easily sell more everywhere else)
Its a bit of an insult to the european (in japan its not even released yet!) etc in knowing they will buy it, instead to focus on the swinging wallets i.e. loyalty dos not get rewarded
I expect xbone > ps4 in dec and prolly jan as well. The real interesting thing is feb 2014 after the initial buzz is over.
PREDICTION whoever sales most feb 2014 NPD will sell most this gen in the USA
but it looks like sony have made a push for the USA & UK (as they know they will easily sell more everywhere else)
Its a bit of an insult to the european (in japan its not even released yet!) etc in knowing they will buy it, instead to focus on the swinging wallets i.e. loyalty dos not get rewarded
I expect xbone > ps4 in dec and prolly jan as well. The real interesting thing is feb 2014 after the initial buzz is over.
PREDICTION whoever sales most feb 2014 NPD will sell most this gen in the USA
Guesses or some bounds are known?
DuckThor Evil
Legend
The released xb1 is not the one that was revealed. Most of the negative points have been fixed so why shouldn't it sell. And even if they had kept the "hate" there is more than enough people that would buy the first production run. And Microsoft isn't even firing on all cylinders, they still have countries to launch in.
I understand that sales numbers are interesting but I still think we are just analyzing production capacity and allocation numbers for the different countries. Every produced console right now is more or less sold, the question is when will it stop and then, which console will be left on the shelves.. That might first be determined after the next Christmas.
Need to see digital numbers to draw any conclusions about software, however the hardware numbers are somewhat a surprise. I was pretty certain MS would do everything necessary to win November NPD, perhaps their WW launch was too much of a hurdle to over come.
I still think MS will make filling the US channel a higher priority in an attempt to shore up their base while Sony will focus on their strongest markets. The additional stock of XB1s at major retailers in the US supports this theory and it makes sense. If your buddy bought and XB1 and you all play COD together what you going to do? I'm sure MS knows this and considers the MP multiplier when allocating supply to the channel. December should be interesting but I again predict MS will outsell Sony in US due to supply.
I wouldn't make any predictions on long term future of any platform based on release sales. As Wii U demonstrated so well, a platform can sell 3 million at launch, and then disappear into obscurity and be ignored by developers. Or, as PS3 showed, a platform can sell lots, then nosedive, but still manage to fight a come-back. Both X1 and PS4 will have die-hard early adopters buying as much out of platform bias as reasoned production selection. The future of the platforms depends on how they sell to everyone else after the 'fanboy frenzy' has died down. Those grumbling about X1 may be buying their new console middle/late next year, or y2 and y3. We have no correlation on demographics here - who was complaining ('the Internet' isn't a demographic) and who's buying which console?
So these numbers are just launch numbers, and showing both platforms doing well. They might show something about supply. That's about it though. Extrapolation here is like looking at the first two samples from an enzyme activity at temperatures experiment and drawing a straight-line going up and concluding performance will be best at 95 degrees C.
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