All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2017 Edition]

[Rangers]

Meh, I thought usually this stuff comes out of conference calls that can be difficult to source since they are not always online.

The more I think about the numbers I'm not sure. I can easily see PS4 selling 18.0 if not more in calendar 17. But leaving only 8.0 for XBO could be low. XBO sold as I mentioned 4.7 in USA in calendar 16, but according to some GAF posters XBO (and PS4) is up around 20% YoY in NPD through the first 3 months of 2017. Certainly this could easily be a blip, but if +20% held you'd be looking at like 5.5 XBO in USA in calendar 2017, leaving only 2.5 for the rest of the world, and on top of that Scorpio seems like it should provide pretty strong possible 2017 upside over 2016.

Basically I'd look at the hard numbers mostly, 53.4/25.6 at the end of calendar 16, evidently. The 2017 estimate is a lot more ethereal and I doubt they put that much specific thought into it. Also they may have wanted to just be conservative with it for business reasons, sort of a minimum baseline projection.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Grrrr, just got back from checking Amazon. I'm a bit amazed by this as I expected prices for scalpers to go down with increased supply. Instead, despite greater supply of Nintendo Switches in the channel, it's selling out so fast (at MSRP) in the US that 3rd party scalper prices have actually gone up slightly.

Also, somewhat interesting but maybe to be expected. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the Nintendo Switch (#3) has sold more copies on Amazon than Zelda for Switch (#4) for 2017. Makes sense if you imagine there's a lot of families buying Switch and that people buying Switch are interested in playing with their friends.

Also, looks like the Switch might have cannibalized 3DS sales as it's nowhere to be seen on the 2017 bestsellers (Switch at #5 and #58). That would also imply that Nintendo made more of the grey Switch than the red and blue Switch.

Regards,
SB

 

[BRiT]

Or everyone who's wanting to buy a 3DS is holding off until The New 2DS XL is released.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Or everyone who's wanting to buy a 3DS is holding off until The New 2DS XL is released.

Very possible. I can't think of anyone that's made use of the 3D functionality for the 3DS in a long time so there isn't much reason to get a 3DS over a 2DS. Pretty much all developers have given up on 3D. It'll be interesting to see how the New 2DS XL sells.

Regards,
SB

 

[Rangers]

EA says 40% of full game sales this year will be digital

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...game-sales-to-be-40-percent-digital-this-year

The growth of full game downloads in the console space has surprised EA, the firm says.

The company told investors during its Q&A - as transcribed by Seeking Alpha - that full game downloads accounted for 33% of unit sales. That's considerably ahead of the firm's previous estimate of 29%, and 9% higher than the figure it posted last year.

The firm says the chief driver was "the continuing evolution of consumer behaviour. but some of the outperformance was driven by the shift from Star Wars Battlefront to Battlefield 1, as well as the digital performance of our catalog."

It expects full game downloads will account for 38% of its console unit sales during 2017.

However, EA's CFO Blake Jorgensen anticipates that for the whole industry the figure will be even higher - around 40%. This is because EA's big titles, such as FIFA, often perform strongly in markets with slower digital uptake.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Well, it looks like I may have to give up my hopes of getting a Nintendo Switch anytime soon. Apparently the Switch continues to sell out within hours of getting stock at Gamestop. All of the local Gamestops in my city sell out of any new stock within 30 minutes.

Amazon scalping prices are now rising quite drastically, and might soon eclipse launch scalping prices there. I had been encouraged back in April when scalping prices started to dip down to the 370-380 USD region combined with news that Nintendo would be increasing shipments starting in May. However, since then the price on Amazon has been steadily climbing and is now in the 415-420 USD region.

While, I think that at some point during this summer we'll see demand relax a bit in NA, I'm getting to the point where I won't be all that surprised if the Switch remains almost impossible to find at MSRP until sometime in 2018 in NA and Japan. Even if demand starts to sharply decline sometime this summer, I imagine it will only be a very small window before it ramps again for back to school and holiday seasons.

The only past console I can think of that had this sort of effect (scalping prices actually rising months after launch rather than holding steady or decreasing) is the Wii. And AFAICS, there isn't that much mainstream media coverage driving hype and demand for the Switch like we had for the Wii which had almost constant media coverage in the US.

I'm starting to think that some market analysts that predict Nintendo could shift 15-20 million units of the Switch in the first year if Nintendo would produce that many might be onto something. Prior to this, I had felt that Nintendo's revised and updated sell through predictions of 10 million units for the first year were slightly optimistic but reasonable with an outside possibility of shifting 12-14 million units.

As I keep saying, it's still too early to make predictions, but it's hard to ignore that while there is increased supply there has been zero impact on scalping prices, and in fact the opposite has occurred with scalping prices going up lock step with increased supply. IE - supply has increased, but so has demand with there now being greater numbers of people willing to pay more money in order to obtain one.

I regret more than ever that we no longer get hardware numbers for consoles in NPD. I'd love to see how May NPD numbers would compare to March NPD numbers. April NPD should by all rights be lower than either for the Switch.

Regards,
SB

 

[Deleted member 2197]

Project Scorpio & PS4 Pro Are Less Popular Than The Nintendo Switch, Study Shows

The Nintendo Switch is more appealing to those looking to purchase one of the new consoles than Sony’s PS4 Pro or Microsoft’s upcoming Project Scorpio.

At least, that’s what a recent U.S. survey conducted in the U.S. among more than 2000 participants shows. The Nielsen Games 360 Report reveals that among those aged over 13, most would buy Nintendo’s new Switch platform, followed up by the recently released PS4 Pro. Microsoft’s upcoming Scorpio console appears to be the least popular console for those looking to purchase one of the mid-gen console refreshments.

Interestingly, this trend among gamers aged 13 and above, also held with members of the general population. 9 percent of the general population appears to be interested in purchasing Microsoft’s Scorpio console, while 11 percent would purchase the PS4 Pro. The Switch takes the top spot among the general population with 12 percent interested in Nintendo’s latest platform.

http://wccftech.com/project-scorpio-ps4-pro-popular-nintendo-switch/
http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/...017-reports/nielsen-games-360-report-2017.pdf

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Yeah but when you're talking about 2 or 3% differences it's really not staying much.

 

[Tkumpathenurple]

That's not much of a surprise: the Switch is the only Switch, whereas both the PS4Pro and Scorpio are more expensive than their near identical precedents.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Was anyone expecting a current gen refresh to be more interesting than a new machine?

 

[wco81]

Yeah but that "new machine" is worse than a technological rehash.

It's going backwards.

 

[BRiT]

But that "new machine" has a gimmick of being portable with Nintendo IP.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yeah but that "new machine" is worse than a technological rehash.

It's going backwards.

What an odd thing to say. It's a very powerful (in mobile terms) gaming platform with a USP that clearly people like and is the only place to play Nintendo titles like Zelda and Mario Kart. Contrast that with 4Pro which is exactly the same as PS4 except in higher quality. The only people interested in 4Pro and Scorpio are a subset of existing console gamers. The people interested in Switch are potentially mobile gamers and Nintendo's core audience, parents wanting a kid friendly platform, and possibly the fashionable yoof - I don't know what audience Switch is selling to but that was their audience.

 

[Jay]

4pro doesn't seem to be heavily marketed from what I've seen for whatever reason.
Scorpio isn't out, and doesn't even have it's name or price out yet.
switch is on the launch high, and is a new gen for Nintendo.
what's the point of the report and article? I've not read it, so i expect I'm missing it.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Yeah but that "new machine" is worse than a technological rehash.

It's going backwards.

Hmmm? It's the most powerful portable gaming device on the market. It's less powerful than the non-portable console competition (nothing surprising there for a Nintendo console) but more powerful than the previous non-portable Nintendo machine. It's the only console that can be used as both a portable and a non-portable. I'm not entirely sure how that is going "backwards."

As a technological "rehash" it's not doing that badly either, the GPU tech (NVidia Maxwell which itself isn't significantly different from Pascal) is roughly equal to the GPU tech in the competing consoles (AMD GCN). Likewise, the CPU tech (modern ARM cores) is relatively equal to the CPU tech in the competing consoles (AMD Jaguar cores). It's certainly less powerful on both fronts, but that has nothing to do with the technology involved which was what you focused on. Likewise it has less memory and storage, but again, that doesn't impact the technology involved.

Either way, the important thing for consumers is whether or not it offers a compelling gaming experience for them. There are plenty of people where it does and plenty of people where it doesn't. The same goes for PS4/XBO, some people find they offer a compelling gaming experience, and some people don't.

[side note] Switch scalping prices on Amazon are now up to the 420-430 USD range. /sigh. A lot of people desperate to get one.

Regards,
SB

 

[Rangers]

Yeah but that "new machine" is worse than a technological rehash.

It's going backwards.

OT I guess, but I actually think Nintendo mostly gets a pass on the Switch vis a vis power, because it's portable. Given that, it's decent tech wise.

 

[Rangers]

Alright my favorite quarterly FRS, Ubisoft cause we get these fun geographic/console breakdown charts https://ubistatic19-a.akamaihd.net/...ingsEngfinal_tcm99-290721_tcm99-196733-32.pdf

Looks like things very stable YoY, both geographic and platform. Xbox holding pretty steady though, maybe it wont get lost in the PS4 Tsunami considering it weathered PSVR and PS4 Pro recently, and Scorpio is coming up.

Also stolen from GAF, the headliners, Ubi says Ghost Recon is the #1 selling game WW in calendar 2017 to date, and For Honor is #2.

40% digital, digital is growing leaps and bounds. Gaffers predicting Destiny 2 will be over 50% digital.

Announced in the Ubisoft call:
- Ghost Recon is the best selling game in 2017 so far, with For Honor being #2.
- Approximately 40% of sales were digital for both games.
- 73% of people played Ghost Recon in co-op, which is a record for Ubisoft.
- "Recurring investment" (season passes, DLC, microtransactions) are above expectations on the games as well.
- For Honor's first two months is going better than Rainbow Six's first two months.
- For the curious, Resident Evil 7 shipped 3.5 million, so both these games are above that. You could pretty safely guess 4-5+ million units.

I dont suppose it's all that impressive being # 1/2 as the big hitter from EA/Rockstar/Activision to my knowledge have not dropped yet. In fact I cannot think of a ton of competition apart from Horizon:ZD or Zelda BOTW, and legacy titles like GTA/COD that sell well constantly.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I dont suppose it's all that impressive being # 1/2 as the big hitter from EA/Rockstar/Activision to my knowledge have not dropped yet. In fact I cannot think of a ton of competition apart from Horizon:ZD or Zelda BOTW, and legacy titles like GTA/COD that sell well constantly.

Yeah, Red Dead 2 is out this this year and that'll likely decimate sales of everything, including games Ghost Recon that have been available for most of the year.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Alright my favorite quarterly FRS, Ubisoft cause we get these fun geographic/console breakdown charts https://ubistatic19-a.akamaihd.net/...ingsEngfinal_tcm99-290721_tcm99-196733-32.pdf

No time to look at the full report right now, but a quick glance at that chart.

Looks like sales moved from consoles to PC despite PS4-P launching. Then again, that's highly variable Q-to-Q and Y-to-Y so don't read anything into that.

NA remains a very steady and reliable market. Europe and Asia relatively more volatile quarter to quarter. PC continues to grow in China, so I wonder if that's what is accounting for a sizeable chunk of both the uptick in PC share (+4%) as well the uptick in Rest of World share (+3%). Mobile as well, but others only saw a 1% uptick compared to 4% for PC for the fiscal year. Perhaps the report goes into more detail, will have to read it when I get time.

Interesting to see growth in rest of world. A few years ago rest of world would generally be under 10% and often closer to 5%. Increased disposable cash combined with a larger presence of online DD (Steam only recently started to officially sell titles in China and Tencent has responded by making their DD store more competitive in order to make it as hard as possible for Steam) on PC making pirating less convenient likely in play.

Regards,
SB

 

[Jupiter]

I dont suppose it's all that impressive being # 1/2 as the big hitter from EA/Rockstar/Activision to my knowledge have not dropped yet. In fact I cannot think of a ton of competition apart from Horizon:ZD or Zelda BOTW, and legacy titles like GTA/COD that sell well constantly.

New IP (For Honor) vs. Mass Effect: Andromeda. I also think that most of the people who purchased Wildlands have not played a Ghost Recon before..