This depends entirely on what appears on Scorpio. If all we see on Scorpio are 4K XB1 games, Sony will be able to release a new console that feels all new and exciting. If Scorpio is sufficiently beefy and allowed to stretch its legs (notably creating optimised 1080p60 games), then PS5 would just look like a 4K Scorpio. And IMO the only way we'll see that is if MS treat Scorpio as a new generation with Scorpio exclusives, blockbuster launch titles that don't run on XB1, and just have XB1 games as a 'BC feature'.
I'm not so sure that's necessarily a "thing." I'm going to use a PC example, because I always do and it appear that Microsoft is moving in that direction. Well not directly. Not a PC as in IBM PC compatible, but PC as in a Windows machine. So we'll have Windows PCs and a Windows console.
If we look at it like that. Let's say we have a rolling 3-4 year "cycle" for when new hardware is released. And every cycle, the one previous to the current cycle can still run all the games the current cycle can run, perhaps at lower FPS, resolution, IQ or some combination of those things. However, if you go to the console that is 2 cycles behind, it may or may not be able to run whatever comes out even at reduced settings. If assume that might be the case, that basically fits with PC gaming as it currently exists. Everything released this year is basically playable on hardware that was released 3-4 years ago, but may or may not be able to run on hardware released 6-8 years ago.
Now lets add onto that with an assumption that each hardware release is meant to be marketable and sold for 2 cycles. So in the above example a console comes out and is expected to be sold and supported for 6-8 years.
When is the new generation? Starting with the first cycle, that may be the 3rd cycle. But the 2nd cycle would see a new "generation" at the 4th cycle. Etc. Put another way starting from the first cycle you wouldn't see a new "generation" going by the "exclusives" definition until the 3rd cycle. But once you hit that 3rd cycle, you have a new generation every single cycle as every cycle will see exclusives released that won't run on a console 2 cycles behind it.
IMO, we may no longer see "generations" as we've typically thought of generations going forward. Or we'll see one company do so while the other doesn't. So something like
- Console A.
- Console release, updated console released 3-4 years later.
- 3-4 years later new console released that is incompatible with the previous 2 consoles, updated new console released after 3-4 years.
- Repeat. This would be like the old console generations, except with a mid-gen premium update.
- Console B.
- Console 1 release.
- Console 2 released 3-4 years later.
- Console 3 released 3-4 years later, Console 1 may or may not be able to play games released after this point.
- Console 4 released 3-4 years later, Console 1 & 2 may or may not be able to play games released after this point. Etc.
- Repeat, this is a PC like generation change.
So Console A would fit some peoples expectations of a new generation breaking with the previous generation in some way. On the other hand, Console B has overlapping generations with new titles guaranteed to run on the previously released console and possibly on consoles that are 2, 3, 4, or more cycles old.
Console B would also mean that there's a strong possibility that indie games or small budget games released 10-12 years after that console was released might still be playable on that console. Many Steam games that are released this year can and will run on PC hardware that was released 10-12 years ago, and more rarely, 15-20 years ago.
Regards,
SB
