Xbox June Showcase 2024 (June 9th 10am PT / 1pm ET / 6pm BST)

[eastmen]

You mean nothing is bigger than the AI hype. It's already so painful even the fan scene pundits are sick of it and are poking fun at it.

Unless proven otherwise I see no significant advantage about a NPU in consoles(AI supported by servers makes far more sense to me) which would lead to a next generational game experience and generate sales.

AI supported by servers what like the cloud? That worked out well for MS last time right? I personally would rather have the work done on my local machine instead of having to call back home. what if I want to play when my internet is down or eventually when I can play it on a portable?

I can't see how a 2025 release would have the necessary HW base to make a real impact. Outside their mobile project I don't see a next console from them in 2025 anyway. We would have heard about it by now.

MS has about 30 studios and if every studio focuses on supporting the new hardware that is a big deal. Imagine COD 25/26 launching with a new xbox that supports all the new xbox features and thus outside of pcs the xbox is the best way to play cod and then have that advantage for 2-3 years.

MS said earlier this year they will be announcing new hardware which is the biggest leap they ever made.

*If* MS still wants to compete with Sony in the next generation Sony might have given them a chance with PS5 Pro which probably means a PS6 in 2028. That gives MS a windows of 2026-27.

Unless they change their whole approach and go OEM and with a floating HW target where everybody can chose the HW based on their budget. That has some pros and cons with difficult to predict outcomes.


I mostly agree. But the problem is releasing earlier while providing the performance for next generation. That's not a trivial problem and can IMHO only be solved by "money". That needs to be paid by somebody in the end which nobody might want.

Like I said looking at the evolution of Zen a zen5/6 would be a big leap over the rumored ps5 pro zen 2 with higher clock speeds. RDNA 5 is supposed to be a ground up redesign of amd's graphics cards. So there is certainly an opportunity to have a large leap in performance esp with how lack luster rdna2/3 are in ray tracing performance. Just looking at Nvidia's ray tracing performance its ands leagues ahead of AMD.

Here is the IPC increases per generation of zen

• Zen3: 19%
• Zen4: 13%
• Zen5: 16%

Remember this is based on the previous generation. So its quite a large increase in instructions per clock. A zen 5/6 would have a massive advantage in CPU limited games over zen 2.

 

[Charlietus]

Here is the IPC increases per generation of zen

• Zen3: 19%
• Zen4: 13%
• Zen5: 16%

Remember this is based on the previous generation. So its quite a large increase in instructions per clock. A zen 5/6 would have a massive advantage in CPU limited games over zen 2.

What I'm curious about is, is the additional IPC coming from making the processor bigger and from process node optimizations or from better design?

Ps5 is 308mm
Series x is 360mm

Every new process node is costlier than the one before, so much so that I can see, for example, a PS6 being 250mm.
So, I'd imagine the processor part of the SOC not being much bigger than before.

 

[Liandry]

If 2026 next gen Xbox gets a 2027 special edition GTA 6 then a year later they'd be an even better version of the game launching with a much more powerful PS6.

First, I doubt what in a year PS6 will be much more powerful than XBox 2026. Second, I also doubt what PS6 will be even more powerful than XBox 2026.

 

[rntongo]

If people leave the Xbox market they will either go PC or PS. If you actually believe they would go Nintendo you haven't understood anything about the Xbox customer base.

I was talking within context(which you missed), yes its true if people leave the Xbox market they will go to either PC or PS which I have stated before.But within context, the Switch 2 is coming out next year and as well some here expect Xbox to release a next gen console next year. Consumers are going to buy the Switch 2(and PS5 pro) over such a system if Xbox made such a blunder. The pressure to prove and convince consumers that its a next gen system will only make it harder to succeed.

1) Again it worked for them back with the 360 and it worked for nintendo with the switch.

2) The pc existed before the xbox one and ps4. So why did they skip the pc and wait for the xbox one and ps4. You aren't making sense.

4) You say it wouldn't be a real generational leap but I disagree. Zen6/RDNA5 would offer a generational leap over zen2/ rdna 2. Esp if RDNA5 is a ground up redesign of the radeon hardware. Zen6 will be almost an 80% increase in IPC over zen2

5) The FTC slides were old when shown and even older now.


Launching a new console in 2025/26 isn't any more expensive than launching a refresh. MS is already making great games and delivering them.

I disagree with your assertions of a $300 ps5 slim outselling it. MS can go with a 2 sku approach again with a zen6/rdna5 set up targeting series x performance at the low end to replace the s and a higher end replacement for the x.

Also what is the point you are trying ot make with MS loosing money on each console but then the ps6 comes out as more powerful. Will sony not be selling the ps6 at a loss when it comes out? Why would we assume MS will sell at a loss for 2 years?

You seem to pick the worse case senarios for MS but the best case with Sony.


As for developers. They are going to support the consoles as they always will. Just like if I buy a game on ps5 it will work on a ps5 pro. if i buy a game on my pc that works on a zen2 + rdna 2 it will work ony a zen 6+ rdna 5. Developers will be able to take advantage of some of a new xbox features on day one.

Its not 100% like 2006 anymore, if you launch a next gen system today expect at least 2-3 years of cross gen titles. Thats another crucial thing you're not considering. Remember about half of console gamers are still on the PS4 and Xbox One. You want MS to release a "next gen" system in 2025 while consumers in the one half are moving over from their PS4s and Xbox Ones to base PS5s and Series X? That "next gen" Xbox in 2025 will have to go through at least 4 years of cross gen titles for at least 90% of its games. Who's going to buy a next gen system when you can play all those titles on a base PS5 and Xbox Series X? You really think current Series X owners are just going to buy a "next gen" Xbox in 2025 and the about half of gamers on the PS4 and Xbox One are going to skip the PS5 and Series X to buy a "next gen" console in 2025 without any exclusive titles?

 

[rntongo]

First, I doubt what in a year PS6 will be much more powerful than XBox 2026. Second, I also doubt what PS6 will be even more powerful than XBox 2026.

Some nuances I had left out. 2026 Next gen Xbox would need 2025 hw. PS5 will be likely releasing 2028 so 2027 hw. I dont see anything on the horizon this year or next year that would be classified as next gen. Not at all. 2027 is the best year when all things considered to release next gen hw.

 

[rntongo]

Imagine developers having to test the series x, series s, portable, series X2 and series S2. I can't see that happening. That's why the only thing I can see is a portable that plays series s versions of games and a "next gen" in 2026 that plays PC versions of games with a console UI + windows.

Thats why I appreciate Sony's approach with the PS5 pro they're really building it based off developer input. Its the same CPU, same amount of memory, faster more powerful GPU. You're basically designing a game around the PS5 hw. MS releasing a new piece of next gen hw would be a sensational blunder.

 

[see colon]

The series X can't become the new S, it's too costly to manufacture.

That assumes that ~$500 doesn't become the budget tier of hardware. When you factor in the economics of current electronics fab/manufacturing, with the price per transistor not decreasing, and the current trend of slow adoption to a new generation of consoles, it makes some sense to produce a cost reduced version of the pervious generation's highest end hardware. There are ways to reduce costs on the current Series X without fundamentally changing it's performance. Changed to the storage size, perhaps a cost reduced southbridge, reducing the number of USB ports, removing the optical drive and ethernet port...

I'm making an assumption that the only way we get a dramatic increase in performance next gen, it will cost substantially more.

Some nuances I had left out. 2026 Next gen Xbox would need 2025 hw. PS5 will be likely releasing 2028 so 2027 hw. I dont see anything on the horizon this year or next year that would be classified as next gen. Not at all. 2027 is the best year when all things considered to release next gen hw.

Why? Didn't RDNA2 launch basically the same time as Series X? Microsoft hasn't been shy with releasing hardware that's a bit newer, perhaps to a fault. The original Xbox launched the same year as the Geforce 3, for example, and 360 hardware was still in the oven so late the development kits were PowerMacs.

 

[rntongo]

Why? Didn't RDNA2 launch basically the same time as Series X? Microsoft hasn't been shy with releasing hardware that's a bit newer, perhaps to a fault. The original Xbox launched the same year as the Geforce 3, for example, and 360 hardware was still in the oven so late the development kits were PowerMacs.

I think it was codeveloped with MS and Sony(With MS getting the full RDNA 2.0). I trust MS to release the next gen Xbox at the right time. For now it makes more sense to focus on the software like they did with the Showcase, build up good will and put the software on more platforms to earn more. Once that is done, they can release a new next gen machine. A handheld in 2025 or 2026 makes a lot more sense, if even its necessary, they already have two pieces of hw that are not selling particularly well so they need to focus on the software for now and the next say 2-3 years. 2027 or 2028 they can release completely new hardware.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

If RDNA 5 has 80% IPC improvement then theoretically you could make an S sized X with reduced clock speed with way less need for cooling, possibly on a smaller node for $349. Sounds good enough to me.

 

[eastmen]

Its not 100% like 2006 anymore, if you launch a next gen system today expect at least 2-3 years of cross gen titles. Thats another crucial thing you're not considering. Remember about half of console gamers are still on the PS4 and Xbox One. You want MS to release a "next gen" system in 2025 while consumers in the one half are moving over from their PS4s and Xbox Ones to base PS5s and Series X? That "next gen" Xbox in 2025 will have to go through at least 4 years of cross gen titles for at least 90% of its games. Who's going to buy a next gen system when you can play all those titles on a base PS5 and Xbox Series X? You really think current Series X owners are just going to buy a "next gen" Xbox in 2025 and the about half of gamers on the PS4 and Xbox One are going to skip the PS5 and Series X to buy a "next gen" console in 2025 without any exclusive titles?

I know its not 2005 anymore. However even with 2-3 years of cross gen titles they will still play better on the more powerful box. It's also not 2005 anymore and MS has 30 studios turning games out. There is also vastly more powerful hardware available now on the pc. Companies are already supporting Zen 4 + Geforce 4090s and everything in between. In a few months zen 5 will be out and they will support that.

The people who will buy a new System will play cross gen game at the highest quality possible. If you are a baulders gate fan the extra 200-400mhz on the ps5 pro zen2 processor isn't going take you of the act 3 cpu issues. A zen 6 would however. The zen 2 cpu by itself will limit games on the current systems. Cross gen games would be able to tap into a more powerful gpu to run at higher frame rates and higher base resolutions or for better / more raytracing.

Millions of people bought PS5s and xbox seris without next gen games. But MS has the means to support the new hardware out of the gate with again 30 devs. They could easily launch with 4 -5 games that all take advantage including COD.

 

[cheapchips]

Millions of people bought PS5s and xbox seris without next gen games. But MS has the means to support the new hardware out of the gate with again 30 devs. They could easily launch with 4 -5 games that all take advantage including COD.

Their 'forward compatibility' efforts probably means they'd come out of the gate with the best cross gen ever! Sprinkle in those 4-5 games with graphics turned up to 11 and it could look like compelling system?

 

[eastmen]

Their 'forward compatibility' efforts probably means they'd come out of the gate with the best cross gen ever! Sprinkle in those 4-5 games with graphics turned up to 11 and it could look like compelling system?

I mean look at Gears 5 on xbox one and xbox series. It was a pretty large jump with just a single patch. I am sure MS can do that to all their games, third party devs can just up the res/textures/frame rates . Lots of people would be very happy. if Gears E day and Fable are launch titles it could be a pretty good launch for a system.

I don't get what people think sony is going to do. For ps5 we got a bunch of cross gen titles from them or rereleases of older games. I don't see it being any different for a ps6. That is why I think MS forcing a gen gives them the advantage. They launch early and by the time sony launches and is just starting their cross gen journey MS will be exiting it and putting out next gen only games. By the time Sony is into full swing with the ps6 then MS can ready a new xbox again.


in todays world where cell phones and tablets are refreshed yearly and even graphics cards are every 18-24 months a 6-7 year cycle is too long for video game systems.

 

[Liandry]

PS5 will be likely releasing 2028 so 2027 hw.

More likely 2028. And if PS6 will be released in 2028 I think Sony will make system on par with XBox, because they will get better cost per unit and additional small power improvements will not make more customers to buy PS6. Customers will buy a lot of new Playstation just because that is Playstation.
Also don't forget MS try to make very powerful console this time. Of course that could be only PR but maybe not.

 

[iroboto]

More likely 2028. And if PS6 will be released in 2028 I think Sony will make system on par with XBox, because they will get better cost per unit and additional small power improvements will not make more customers to buy PS6. Customers will buy a lot of new Playstation just because that is Playstation.
Also don't forget MS try to make very powerful console this time. Of course that could be only PR but maybe not.

Timing is always an interesting aspect to discuss. If you look at raw power, 5pro is a smidge larger than XSX. They are just running better clock speeds 4 years later.

So there is a “optimum” in terms of best bang for buck on release. But interestingly, technology, seems to move quickly, so the power envelope may be the similar with a later release, but the tech could be substantially newer.

 

[Liandry]

Timing is always an interesting aspect to discuss. If you look at raw power, 5pro is a smidge larger than XSX. They are just running better clock speeds 4 years later.

So there is a “optimum” in terms of best bang for buck on release. But interestingly, technology, seems to move quickly, so the power envelope may be the similar with a later release, but the tech could be substantially newer.

To be honest I don't like where all this could be moving. PS5 Pro in 2025, Next XBox in 2026, PS6 in 2027-2028, Next XBox Pro in 2029. New console every two years. Like PC parts or smartphones.

 

[iroboto]

To be honest I don't like where all this could be moving. PS5 Pro in 2025, Next XBox in 2026, PS6 in 2027-2028, Next XBox Pro in 2029. New console every two years. Like PC parts or smartphones.

They wouldn’t call a new generation until there was a significant boost in performance with minimal increase in price. So it wouldn’t be that often I suspect. Software stack is moving quickly, but silicon is having a hard time catching up. Bandwidth is still super expensive.

 

[eastmen]

To be honest I don't like where all this could be moving. PS5 Pro in 2025, Next XBox in 2026, PS6 in 2027-2028, Next XBox Pro in 2029. New console every two years. Like PC parts or smartphones.

But that isn't a big deal. You can choose when you want to jump in. That is also looking at it through the lense of buying both companies machines. If you only buy playstation then nothing changes. If you only buy xbox then nothing changes. however if you are in-between then you might hop on whatever platform offers you the best experience for the games you want to play at that moment .

Lets say PS5 pro comes out this year. Xbox next comes out next year and gta 6 comes out next year. Lets say the xsx and ps5 play the game at 1080p 30fps and the ps5 pro does 1440p at 60fps. If the next gen xbox is able to do 4k at 60fps most people who had a ps5 and were thinking about the pro for a better experience might jump over to the new xbox. Many people who hadn't jumped in might go for the new xbox because of the better performance.

 

[rntongo]

To be honest I don't like where all this could be moving. PS5 Pro in 2025, Next XBox in 2026, PS6 in 2027-2028, Next XBox Pro in 2029. New console every two years. Like PC parts or smartphones.

The PS5 pro is basically the same as the PS5 besides the GPU, its a midgen refresh which makes sense considering we now have 8 year generations. The idea of a midgen refresh and a handheld makes sense. But the idea that you can create a completely new generation defining device every 3-5 years is misguided

 

[Seanspeed]

The PS5 pro is basically the same as the PS5 besides the GPU, its a midgen refresh which makes sense considering we now have 8 year generations. The idea of a midgen refresh and a handheld makes sense. But the idea that you can create a completely new generation defining device every 3-5 years is misguided

Seriously. We've already gone over this, too. Xbox had already been talking about trying to move to a generation-less model in the leadup to the new generation, and quickly had to backtrack once Playstation made it clear they were going to continue with it. Cuz it turns out, that exists for a reason, and works well. And certainly Xbox did not have the clout to change this.

It's all more evidence how much Xbox have been trying to find some magical alternative to directly competing in the traditional console space, and it's just making things worse. It's like trying to start a new football club, and when you keep getting beat, you decide you're gonna instead change the rules a bit and start your own league that nobody else joins, and no sponsors want to be a part of it because it's clearly not the popular market, and you're just left sitting there balls in hand looking like an idiot instead of spending all that time and effort just trying to get better at football.

And what's really hilarious about this showcase is that for all the very promising games Xbox did show, they're not even going to be exclusive anymore. This could have been a potential momentum boost for Xbox as a console platform, but instead it only looks positive when you view Xbox purely as a games publisher.

Keeping with the football analogy, it's like finally putting together a competent football team, but then just loaning out all your best players to better teams, so you dont actually benefit yourself from having signed or developing them. Sure you bring in some money in the process, but your team and brand is still not doing well.

 

[techuse]

Given that 4 years in we are still getting a majority of games mired in last gen technology, I’m not sure how a 2026 Next Box would be able to offer software that would compel users to upgrade.