What does HD DVD need to stay in the game, and when do they need it by?

[Geo]

I don't know. Sony winning with BD could mean a head start when downloadable content becomes a reality. So even if Microsoft isn't losing any real money, it's position could have be seriously weakened.

Oh really? I'd like to hear more on the details of this theory. Exactly what about B-r winning the next gen movie format war would translate into a "head start" with downloads?

 

[Mintmaster]

I don't think it means to much at all. The plan all along is downloadable video the hd-dvd was like me betting on the long shot at the races. If it pans out cool if not I am only out a few bucks. It was toshiba who footed the bill for the format war. The only money MS will lose is what the spend on hd-i and the 360 software play back which I guess they can use in the future for downloadable video. Personally I think downloadable faces the same issues as blu with the average consumer and will be just a niche like blu.

I never understood why so many others think MS cares so much about the format war to pump huge sums into HD-DVD.

Online distribution is entirely orthogonal to HD formats. It doesn't matter if HD succeeds or not. HD is about image quality only, and that's why it has difficulty competing with DVD because not everyone cares about the difference. Online distribution is about convenience, and this is the main reason DVD won over VHS. If DVDs were the same size as VHS tapes and didn't have random access, it would have struggled even more than HD-DVD and BR.

The question is whether online is enough of a jump in convenience as DVD was over VHS.

 

[Geo]

In retrospect, the problem with the Paramount deal was that they spent a big chunk of change to stick a thumb in the other fellows eye, rather than spending that money to get access to more content themselves (i.e. convincing a B-r only studio to go neutral).

 

[Ty]

Like this one ? http://www.contentagenda.com/article/CA6516429.html?industryid=45173

Everyone seems to be running as fast as their little legs can carry them.

Yes, that's what I'm speaking of.

I never understood why so many others think MS cares so much about the format war to pump huge sums into HD-DVD.

The theory was that MS wants to be in the living room and this means preventing Sony as much as possible. So while downloadable movies isn't ready for prime time, MS benefited by stalling the next gen format. /shrug.

 

[SPM]

Yes, that's what I'm speaking of.



The theory was that MS wants to be in the living room and this means preventing Sony as much as possible. So while downloadable movies isn't ready for prime time, MS benefited by stalling the next gen format. /shrug.

Spot on!

Here are the shenanigans of a PR man who often appears to work for Microsoft. Note the overriding theme - Sony, Bluray, and now both HD formats are going to fail. Enderle is a well known PR shill posing as an analyst who announced HD-DVD had won and Blu-ray was dead one year ago. Now apparently after hearing the news about Warner, he is claiming both formats are dead . The guy often seems to do PR for Microsoft, so Microsoft's attempts to corner video downloads with it's own formats is probably the reason for this statement.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...la-home-center
Quote:
"I think the fat lady just sang," said Rob Enderle, principal analyst with Enderle Group in San Jose. "This gives Blu-ray a decisive lead. The question now is whether it is too little too late."

Enderle said consumers might have moved on to digital downloads to get movies rather than wait to buy them on next-generation DVDs. The next big chance to sell high-definition movie players won't be until next Christmas, he said. "By then, it may all be moot."
Here are a few of his earlier predictions:

Sony's bankrupcy:
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread...hlight=enderle
Sony's Last Days

HD-DVD has won:
23rd April 2007
http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html
So, if this move by Wal-Mart is true , and it appears to be (but we won’t know for sure for a few months yet), the format war is likely over and Wal-Mart has declared the winner.

Blu-Ray is dead:
27th Aug 2007
http://www.technewsworld.com/story/W...the-Week.xhtml
Blu-ray Loses, Rhapsody/MTV Target iTunes Weakness, Product of the Week

 

[N00b]

Oh really? I'd like to hear more on the details of this theory. Exactly what about B-r winning the next gen movie format war would translate into a "head start" with downloads?

I wasn't thinking about technology here. More about, say, betting on the right horse. In a couple of years, when digital (HD) distribution for the masses is both feasable and capable of replacing optical media (meaning high bandwith and high coverage), the studios may want to agree on a single standard for digital distribution (the question of why is left as an exercise to the reader for now). I don't think they see themselves as pure content providers in the future, they will want a certain degree of control over the distribution pipeline (some keywords here are interoperability, independence, prevention of market fragmentation, market penetration and so on...). So when it comes to developing and later chosing a system for digital distribution Sony (and its partners) will have at least a trust and competence bonus. That's what I mean when I talk about a head start.

 

[SPM]

HD DVD has been gaining ground (though admittedly nothing huge) in sales the past few weeks. I think the trend would have continued (and picked up speed once a $100 player came out).

Not true according to December sales figures.
http://www.contentagenda.com/blog/1500000150/post/190019619.html

One of the things you see in the NPD data for this fourth quarter was that even with a $100 [price] premium, Blu-ray set tops outsold HD set tops in December.

.
And that's not counting PS3s.

 

[JardeL]

HD DVD group cancels CES press conference


We just got an email which stated that the HD DVD group is canceling its CES press conference; tail severely between legs over today's explosive news that Warner -- the last "undecided" studio -- was going to the other side and doing Blu-ray discs exclusively. We're not sure if that's because the HD DVD group was in 11th hour negotiations with Warner or what, but the mood at that camp has to be beyond somber right now, so it's pretty hard to thump the tub when you've just been dealt a hard losing hand.

Notice of CES Press Conference Cancellation by North American HD DVD Promotion Group

Based on the timing of the Warner Home Video announcement today, we have decided to postpone our CES 2008 press conference scheduled for Sunday, January 6th at 8:30 p.m. in the Wynn Hotel. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

We are currently discussing the potential impact of this announcement with the other HD DVD partner companies and evaluating next steps. We believe the consumer continues to benefit from HD DVD's commitment to quality and affordability – a bar that is critical for the mainstream success of any format.

We'll continue to keep you updated on new developments around HD DVD.

[ http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/04/hd-dvd-group-cancels-ces-press-conference-in-wake-of-warner-anno/ ] ...

 

[Acert93]

I don't know. Sony winning with BD could mean a head start when downloadable content becomes a reality. So even if Microsoft isn't losing any real money, it's position could have be seriously weakened.

IMO Microsoft obtained a key concession when Blu-ray Disc Association went forward with VC-1 support. From a digital distribution standpoint the media is almost irrelevant; how it is encoded is substantially important.

As for a "headstart" on downloadable content, the "reality" is that it is here, now. A number of cable providers offer movies on demand and Xbox Live offers a growing library of movies and television shows in high definition as well.

The issues for digitial distribution online is connectivity as well as creating a 'relationship' with the consumer. Companies like Apple and Microsoft, at the present time, have a substantial investment in this sort of activity.

Sony will always have an advantage, by default, due to their ownership of a number of movie studios. They can leverage these exclusively through their services and partners. But winning the HD optical format war isn't going to prevent other companies from offering their selection of media through other services.

 

[Maintank]

They can still try a pronged attack.

One way would be to point out how BluRay players are shipping within the full 2.0 profile spec. People are buying an incomplete product, some with a huge downside. I have heard Samsung has a 1.0 player that is failing to run the latest 1.1 movies. ooops.

Secondly they still need to trudge ahead and flood the market with players. I dont care what some exec at Warner claimed for december. I think if you look at the standalone sales, HD-DVD is winning about 60:40 or better. Standalone sales account for a much higher purchase rate than PS3's.

If they can still sell a bunch of players they may get Warner to at least go neutral again. Doing that will allow them to cut the market share. But as it stands they will be cornered into a smaller movie market which makes it hard to beat BluRay. Well basically imo impossible. The only hope is to keep moving ahead and hope to win back some studio's.

The Blu Camp still has a problem with pricing that will keep their market from growing. The newer players slated for this summer are in the 350-700 dollar range. This is 6 months from now. Not a good sign for mass adoption.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

One way would be to point out how BluRay players are shipping within the full 2.0 profile spec. People are buying an incomplete product, some with a huge downside. I have heard Samsung has a 1.0 player that is failing to run the latest 1.1 movies. ooops.

Buyer beware.

Secondly they still need to trudge ahead and flood the market with players. I dont care what some exec at Warner claimed for december. I think if you look at the standalone sales, HD-DVD is winning about 60:40 or better. Standalone sales account for a much higher purchase rate than PS3's.

That's funny. Truly. Thanks for the laugh. When you can show me how 5-8 million PS3s (depending on which numbers you believe) is somehow less than a few hundred thousand HD DVD players, then you'll have a valid point. As for HD DVD owners buying more media - I have 12 B-r movies. I've owned my PS3 for a month. You think HD DVD owners are buying at the same rate?

If they can still sell a bunch of players they may get Warner to at least go neutral again. Doing that will allow them to cut the market share. But as it stands they will be cornered into a smaller movie market which makes it hard to beat BluRay. Well basically imo impossible. The only hope is to keep moving ahead and hope to win back some studio's.

No one is going to switch back now. Momentum is entirely on B-r's side. The only way studios will switch back is if somehow B-r stumbles so badly that the death of the format becomes imminent. Not gonna happen.

The Blu Camp still has a problem with pricing that will keep their market from growing. The newer players slated for this summer are in the 350-700 dollar range. This is 6 months from now. Not a good sign for mass adoption.

Let's just ignore the multi-million (and growing) PS3 install base, because it's not convenient to our argument, right?

 

[SPM]

They can still try a pronged attack.
Secondly they still need to trudge ahead and flood the market with players. I dont care what some exec at Warner claimed for december. I think if you look at the standalone sales, HD-DVD is winning about 60:40 or better. Standalone sales account for a much higher purchase rate than PS3's.

That wasn't going to happen. In December BD standalone players outsold HD-DVD players even though they are a lot more expensive. Looks like consumers have made their mind up that BD will win. That is what prompted Warner go Bluray only.

http://www.contentagenda.com/blog/1500000150/post/190019619.html

"It’s hard for us to speculate about impact this will have on the format war. All we can do really is make the best decision for our business and the rest of it will really take care of itself, in time," he said. "One of the things you see in the NPD data for this fourth quarter was that even with a $100 [price] premium, Blu-ray set tops outsold HD set tops in December. Even with Toshiba having the lowest-cost player in the market, software sales remained 2 to 1 in favor of Blu-ray."

 

[MrGaribaldi]

Could Toshibas lowering of prices be what the HD-camp needs to stay in the game?
It sure does bring the price-point closer to a mainstream adaption point...

 

[Babel-17]

Could Toshibas lowering of prices be what the HD-camp needs to stay in the game?
It sure does bring the price-point closer to a mainstream adaption point...

My brother-in-law, who just bought a Blu ray player, sent me some news a few days ago regarding two HD DVD players.

http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/SearchTools/item-details.asp?EdpNo=3304908&CatId=2356

$129.99 with the instant rebate.

http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/SearchTools/item-details.asp?EdpNo=3304910&CatId=2356

$179.99 with the instant rebate.

So, with the instant rebate, that's another twenty bucks off from the lowered prices mentioned in the article. Both come "(With 2 Free Movies In The Box And 5 Free Movies By Mail)"

I tested the above links and they are acting erratic (they work then a server error followed by working again etc.). Still valid though afaik.

 

[SPM]

It isn't surprising that there are steep price cuts on HD-DVD players and media - retailers will be trying to dump unwanted HD-DVD players and media. Expect them to get even cheaper. The price cuts aren't sustainable though.

As far as Toshiba cutting HD-DVD prices is concerned, that isn't going to work. Nobody is going to buy a player that only plays Universal and Paramount content (probably soon to be only Universal content).

 

[Laa-Yosh]

A little off topic maybe perhaps...

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Could Toshibas lowering of prices be what the HD-camp needs to stay in the game?
It sure does bring the price-point closer to a mainstream adaption point...

This is just a last-ditch effort by Toshiba to try to drum up enough hardware sales to get people to continue to buy HD DVD disks, despite their impending doom.

It isn't surprising that there are steep price cuts on HD-DVD players and media - retailers will be trying to dump unwanted HD-DVD players and media. Expect them to get even cheaper. The price cuts aren't sustainable though.

As far as Toshiba cutting HD-DVD prices is concerned, that isn't going to work. Nobody is going to buy a player that only plays Universal and Paramount content (probably soon to be only Universal content).

Exactly. Everyone knows B-r has won. HD DVD is still alive, but it's on life support.

A little off topic maybe perhaps...

LOL! Sim Heil is still my favorite though.

 

[Sxotty]

Could Toshibas lowering of prices be what the HD-camp needs to stay in the game?
It sure does bring the price-point closer to a mainstream adaption point...

Could their lowering of prices before christmas have done it? Maybe, but as I said before they were to cautious before and it has cost them. Look at the enormous losses sony took to promote bluray. They are staggering, if Toshiba wanted to compete they needed to take a bit of risk. They should just pack their things now and go home. Throwing good money after bad and all that.

 

[Crossbar]

HD-DVD not quite dead yet, Toshiba is not giving in that easily.

A lot of PR in this EETimes article.

While the company was taken aback by the Warner Bros. announcement, it has not given up. Toshiba points out that the Blu-ray experienced a similar set-back last year when Paramount/Dreamworks announced that it was backing HD DVD exclusively.
Toshiba America Consumer Products, L.L.C. has announced that it is stepping up its successful marketing campaign for HD DVD as it experienced record-breaking unit sales in the fourth quarter of 2007. Major initiatives, including joint advertising campaigns with studios and extended pricing strategies will begin in mid-January and are designed to spotlight the superior benefits of HD DVD as well as the benefits HD DVD brings to a consumer's current DVD library by upconverting standard DVDs via the HDMI output to near high definition picture quality.

New Marketing Strategy for Mass Market Adoption
Taking the holiday season sales based on promotional prices into full consideration, these new manufacturer's suggested retail prices (MSRP) are designed to meet the potential demand for HD DVD players in the US market. Effective on January 13, 2008 the MSRP of the entry-model HD-A3 will be $149.99, the HD-A30, with 1080p output, $199.99, and the high-end HD-A35, $299.99.

According to Yoshi Uchiyama, Group Vice President Digital A/V Group, "While price is one of the consideration elements for the early adopter, it is a deal-breaker for the mainstream consumer. Consumer sales this holiday season have proven that the consumer awareness of the HD DVD format has been elevated and pricing is the most critical determinant in consumer's purchase decision of the next generation HD DVD technology. The value HD DVD provides to the consumer simply cannot be ignored."

Extended Advertising Campaign
Toshiba plans to execute an extended advertising campaign that will further enhance consumer awareness of the benefits of HD DVD and drive sales to retail among potential consumers. Advertising strategies will include television, print and online media channels. Toshiba will also work with its dealers and studio partners on joint marketing and promotional initiatives to promote HD DVD. Current promotions include "The Perfect HD Offer" - a mail-in offer allowing consumers to select five HD DVD titles for free from a selection of 15 with the purchase of any Toshiba HD DVD player.

Consistent Viewing Experience and More
With advanced interactivity and Web-enabled network capabilities built into every HD DVD player through a dedicated Ethernet port as mandated by the specifications approved by the DVD Forum, Toshiba delivers on the promise of a consistent entertainment experience through firmware updates as studios launch new applications. HD DVD allows studios to flex their creative muscle in ways never before seen. The latest of these new experiences is online streaming. Now, when consumers connect their HD DVD player to the Internet, they can stream new content or trailers, as available, directly from a movie studio's server.

They never mention actual disk sales among their comparison figures for obvious reasons.

I wonder how long they will keep up this strategy, it must be extremely expensive for Toshiba. Is somebody helping them with money?

 

[Arwin]

A little off topic maybe perhaps...

That was pretty funny, thanks.