What does HD DVD need to stay in the game, and when do they need it by?

AlphaWolf said:
You might lose out on the current bogo deals but that doesn't mean you'll wind up paying more for the media in the long run. I've bought a lot of DVDs for $5 or less, if one of these HD media formats are going to be around as long as DVD there is reason to expect that we'll eventually see much of the media that is available now on HD in that bargain bin (maybe not for $5 but still cheaper than $15).

Keeping an extra player in the entertainment center sounds easy, until the one you have fails (can you point me to where i can buy a new betamax player for $25?) or if you want to watch the movie in another room (I own several dvd players).

I don't really see any evidence that either format is going to fail in the short term I believe betamax hung around until the advantage was 10:1.
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The way I see it is only HD-DVD is in danger and that is only if warner goes blu. If warner stays neutral at CES then this war goes on atleast 18 more months. By then dual format players should be reasonable. If not the A4 or A5 should have a MSRP of 99 and when cleared out will be what 40-50 dolars or even less? I will just pick up a couple of extra players. With fox and sony blu is not going away any time soon. By the time sony/fox would give up players will be dirt cheap anyways. For me I get to enjoy HD media now and can take advantage of stellar deals.


Hell if you are scared of the whole library being orphaned just get a Blu 1.0 player on clearance and use blockbuster total. Rent rent and rent some more.
 
quest55720 said:
The way I see it is only HD-DVD is in danger and that is only if warner goes blu. If warner stays neutral at CES then this war goes on atleast 18 more months. By then dual format players should be reasonable. If not the A4 or A5 should have a MSRP of 99 and when cleared out will be what 40-50 dolars or even less? I will just pick up a couple of extra players. With fox and sony blu is not going away any time soon. By the time sony/fox would give up players will be dirt cheap anyways. For me I get to enjoy HD media now and can take advantage of stellar deals.
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You're assuming a lot. If one format seems to be dying, dual format would not get cheaper. The only way dual format is going to get really cheap is if both formats look to last for a very long time and other manufacturers start building dual players.

You're trying to gloss over the disadvantages of owning orphaned media, but these are significant issues for a lot of people. If blu-ray or HD DVD admitted defeat next year it wouldn't be long before the retail channel emptied. If your player dies and your collection of media becomes useless or you wind up paying ridiculous repair charges (assuming its repairable) or finding some used device on ebay. Also you're likely stuck without the portability you enjoy with a universal format like cd or dvd.

Hell if you are scared of the whole library being orphaned just get a Blu 1.0 player on clearance and use blockbuster total. Rent rent and rent some more.
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Or you could just stick with DVD. It's by far the cheapest and easiest option for those inclined to wait. DVD isn't going anywhere soon, it's going to be around for at least another 20 years.
 
Perhaps others can shed some light on this.

If HD DVD players are truly cheap to make now, then what is keeping BR players so high? I am going on the assumption that there really isn't much difference BOM-wise but you know what they say about assumptions...
 
quest55720 said:
If warner stays neutral at CES then this war goes on atleast 18 more months.
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I think Paramount proved pretty conclusively that CES is not the be-all and end-all of format switch announcement timing. I'd expect Warner to move when Warner comes to their own conclusions on the matter. . . and CES feels a little too early for that, absent large external inducements. I think like everyone else they'd at least like to see how holiday season player sales impact longer term content sales.

Edit: Interesting article on Warner's original decision-making here: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6276046.html
 
Geo said:
I think Paramount proved pretty conclusively that CES is not the be-all and end-all of format switch announcement timing. I'd expect Warner to move when Warner comes to their own conclusions on the matter. . . and CES feels a little too early for that, absent large external inducements. I think like everyone else they'd at least like to see how holiday season player sales impact longer term content sales.

Edit: Interesting article on Warner's original decision-making here: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6276046.html
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He maybe right but I hope it is not a check from either side that gets warner to play king maker. I know it won't happen but I would hope warner would use its position as king maker to improve the negatives of the side it chooses. If they choose blu I hope they force sony to release a entry level 2.0 player at 249 or less this year. If they choose hd-dvd I hope they force toshiba to drop the MSRP of its products by 100-150 dollars. On top of that get a consesion on the licensing fees for all to get the prices of movies down.

My biggest fear in all this is warner goes blu now. The blu CEs then have no reason to break the gentlemans agreement on high margins on players since there is no pressure from hd-dvd or the chinese. Then since blu won so easily they will have no reason to lower fees to studios for every disc printed which keeps the prices of movies at 29.99+. I love HDM I have 3 HD-DVRs from direct tv. But there is no chance in hell I pay 30 bucks per new release movie and 19.99 for older titles. As bad as a format war is to me 30 dollar movies and expensive players is much worse.
 
I guess what really bothers me is the higher prices I have to pay to watch some of the new HD-DVD disk. I thought that was one of the "benifits" of the HD-DVD side (being able to use existing DVD lines with only slight modifications). But when I walk into a store and see a new HD-DVD for $34.99 I then walk out. Agreed I maybe not walking into the right stores (this was Best Buy over the holidays) and I would expect to pay for a higher quality version but not that much more (and no it was not a combo disk). So I would agree that HD-DVD prices of media a bit lower would help....
 
A third week in a row of 61-39 (B-r:HD DVD). I see this as a positive for HD DVD, as it's well north of what I consider to be the key psychological point of 33%. This would include the first few days of post-Christmas content buying for those players found under the tree.
 
Geo said:
A third week in a row of 61-39 (B-r:HD DVD). I see this as a positive for HD DVD, as it's well north of what I consider to be the key psychological point of 33%. This would include the first few days of post-Christmas content buying for those players found under the tree.
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Has there been any significant upward trend in the total sales numbers? Or do you have those numbers?
 
Well now Reuters is claiming Warner will make an announcement to sell Blu-Ray exclusively..

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSN0432340820080104

And finaly the press release

WARNER BROS. ENTERTAINMENT TO RELEASE ITS HIGH-DEFINITION DVD TITLES EXCLUSIVELY IN THE BLU-RAY DISC FORMAT BEGINNING LATER THIS YEAR

Decision Made in Response to Strong Consumer Preference for Format

(January 4, 2008 - Burbank, CA) - In response to consumer demand, Warner Bros. Entertainment will release its high-definition DVD titles exclusively in the Blu-ray disc format beginning later this year, it was announced today by Barry Meyer, Chairman & CEO, Warner Bros. and Kevin Tsujihara, President, Warner Bros. Home Entertainment Group.

"Warner Bros.' move to exclusively release in the Blu-ray disc format is a strategic decision focused on the long term and the most direct way to give consumers what they want," said Meyer. "The window of opportunity for high-definition DVD could be missed if format confusion continues to linger. We believe that exclusively distributing in Blu-ray will further the potential for mass market success and ultimately benefit retailers, producers, and most importantly, consumers."

Warner Home Video will continue to release its titles in standard DVD format and Blu-ray. After a short window following their standard DVD and Blu-ray releases, all new titles will continue to be released in HD DVD until the end of May 2008.

"Warner Bros. has produced in both high-definition formats in an effort to provide consumer choice, foster mainstream adoption and drive down hardware prices," said Jeff Bewkes, President and Chief Executive Officer, Time Warner Inc., the parent company of Warner Bros. Entertainment. "Today's decision by Warner Bros. to distribute in a single format comes at the right time and is the best decision both for consumers and Time Warner."

"A two-format landscape has led to consumer confusion and indifference toward high definition, which has kept the technology from reaching mass adoption and becoming the important revenue stream that it can be for the industry," said Tsujihara. "Consumers have clearly chosen Blu-ray, and we believe that recognizing this preference is the right step in making this great home entertainment experience accessible to the widest possible audience. Warner Bros. has worked very closely with the Toshiba Corporation in promoting high definition media and we have enormous respect for their efforts. We look forward to working with them on other projects in the future."
 
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If I had bought a HD-DVD player for xmas or got it as a present, there would be temptation to return it. This looks like the end of the war.
 
It will be interesting if Warner shows up at the HD-DVD conference now.

I found that release as I was browsing HTPC forums looking at equipment to build a new HTPC unit in the next month. Maybe that dual format reader won't be needed.. I will have to watch the fallout on this one. Warner supposedly had 18-20% of DVD sales so will make a dent.
 
I bet like most large corporations, employees were scheduled to talk.

Meanwhile the big wigs make the decision and those employees now have to make the best of it.
 
willardjuice said:
A real shame. All they had to do was stick it out for a few more months.
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For a few more? What were you expecting to happen in a few months? It doesn't seem that any trends were headed in HD DVD's favor - and I just bought a player! :(

Warner probably has better access to any marketing/sales data than any of us - they must see something.
 
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