What does HD DVD need to stay in the game, and when do they need it by?

[Geo]

I've been working on the premise that HD DVD has continued to get support from retailers in the last 1/2 of the year, based on two factors --1) The Paramount move and 2) The promise of cheap HD DVD players selling in sizeable quantities for Christmas and beyond.

But both are meant to presage a significant "moving of the needle" on content sales, as that is the real long-term indicator everyone will be watching.

My theory is that a continued 2-1 (or worse) deficit of content sales on an average basis (i.e. smooth out the trend line) would mean defections on the retail side will trigger a viscious circle of defections, leading to irrelevance in relatively short order, and then defection of studios.

The question is, how long does HD DVD have to "move the needle" on the content sales side? I tend to think if the trend lines don't start looking better than 2-1 against (i.e. 35% or higher *on average*) by March, then the cycle referenced above will kick in.

 

[willardjuice]

I tend to think if the trend lines don't start looking better than 2-1 against (i.e. 35% or higher *on average*) by March, then the cycle referenced above will kick in.

I don't believe that at all. It's still way too early. You're talking about 35% of less than 1% of the whole DVD market. I don't think sales numbers (since they are so low) are very apparent to studios at this point. I'd venture to say there's about 18-24 months before studios have to make any serious commitments. By that time HD DVD's install base will be too high to ignore (as well as Blu-ray's) and a stalemate will be sure to follow. You might see some studio's go neutral (Disney), but no one will abandon either format completely. I believe dual format players/discs will be champion.

 

[digitalwanderer]

One format or the other has to become the clear winner, until then it will stay a novelty.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

I love my novelty. B-r is so much better than DVD I try to only buy B-r disks now. I don't even go to the DVD section anymore unless I know a title simply isn't out on B-r and is unlikely to ever be released on it thanks to studio exclusivity.

 

[quest55720]

They just need warner to stay neutral is all. Lets be honest Blu Had everything this fall. The PS3 and pretty much every block buster except transformers as exclusives months of BOGOs. They could not end the war with every single advantage this fall/winter.

I hope the war goes on until one side fixes the major issues with HD formats.

1. Standalone player/Media prices they are just way to expensive for the average person to even consider. People are buying less 14.99 new release movies you think they want to spend 29.99 for a movie that only plays on the HD players of the house

2. The lack of bullet proof players. I am sorry but the average person is not going to want to do monthly firmware upgrades. You know how many firmware updates I have done on my dvd players/vcrs? Zero I know no one who had to firmware upgrade them. I just retired my old toshiba DVD player from 2000 it played every thing I through at it including DVD-Rs. I am going to give it to a friend it is a freaking tank.

I will be rooting for the war to end once I see 99 dollar bullet proof players and 14.99 dollar new release media. Thank god for the format war so we get these nice BOGO deals making the price reasonable.

 

[BRiT]

I will be rooting for the war to end once I see 99 dollar bullet proof players and 14.99 dollar new release media. Thank god for the format war so we get these nice BOGO deals making the price reasonable.

Amazon had some deals on $99 HD-DVD players in the past. Canada's FutureShop is selling Toshiba HD-D3 hd-dvd player for $99 tomorrow (Link). It would seem HD-DVD camp is the first one to hit that price, granted it's via special sales, but it's still damn nice.

 

[AlNom]

What's the difference between the D3 and A3 models

 

[willardjuice]

What's the difference between the D3 and A3 models

One's super cool and one's Super Bad (pun intended, I love that movie).

Nothing, Toshiba rebrands players for certain stores. For example, the HD-B3 (not real, but go with it) could be HD-A3's for Best Buy.

 

[AlNom]

hm... it's just odd that Futureshop carries both A3 and D3 and the 300$ price drop applied only to the D3, whilst there was a 100$ drop for the A3.

Not sure what I can say for HD DVD to stay alive... Personally, I see no reason why they should keep on going once feature sets stabilize.

They have to snatch up exclusivity (yeah right) or neutrality, but almost everyone is on Blu Ray's side anyway. :|

I'd have to at least wonder how much of a cost advantage HD DVD has now and will/will not have in the future as this competition continues. There just doesn't seem to be any other compelling reason to go with HD DVD other than the moniker.

The particular mandatory audio formats are nice though, something that I thought would have been matched by BD given the larger disc space (DD Plus, DD TrueHD). Not a make-or-break feature, but.. just thought it was odd.

 

[Geo]

I don't believe that at all. It's still way too early. You're talking about 35% of less than 1% of the whole DVD market. I don't think sales numbers (since they are so low) are very apparent to studios at this point. I'd venture to say there's about 18-24 months before studios have to make any serious commitments. By that time HD DVD's install base will be too high to ignore (as well as Blu-ray's) and a stalemate will be sure to follow. You might see some studio's go neutral (Disney), but no one will abandon either format completely. I believe dual format players/discs will be champion.

Ms. Chicken, meet Mr. Egg. There won't be major consumer uptake (say > 25% of the total home video market) until either the format war is settled, or reasonably priced dual-format players are on the scene.

But so long as HDTV penetration keeps increasing (dunno about you guys, but another two familes in my circle of acquaintences went HD this Christmas), then there will be a gradual increase in pressure to get the format war settled.

I tend to think Retailers hold the key, and therefore Retailer mindshare is going to be the determiner in whether we get a deadlock or a winner.

 

[lopri]

I don't believe that at all. It's still way too early. You're talking about 35% of less than 1% of the whole DVD market.

I remember reading a news article stating that the sales of Blu-Ray/HD-DVD discs are nearing 5% of total disc sales. It's definitely NOT less than 1%.

Besides, with all those HDTVs selling like hot cakes, I think the DVD to Blu-Ray/HD-DVD transition will be much quicker than VHS to DVD, once the winner of this format war becomes more predictable.

I mean, I myself feel like it's wasting money to purchase a DVD when I can get a Blu-Ray/HD-DVD, with the price difference of newly released titles being less than $10. Blu-Ray/HD-DVD gives audio and video quality leaps and bounds ahead of DVD.. why waste $20 on a DVD.. (would rather spend $8 more and enjoy the incredible visual clarity and immersive sound)

 

[willardjuice]

But so long as HDTV penetration keeps increasing (dunno about you guys, but another two familes in my circle of acquaintences went HD this Christmas), then there will be a gradual increase in pressure to get the format war settled.

You're right, it's a gradual increase. It certainly wouldn't be decided by March as you originally implied.

I remember reading a news article stating that the sales of Blu-Ray/HD-DVD discs are nearing 5% of total disc sales

Replace 5 where the 1 is in my original post, problem solved.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

You're right, it's a gradual increase. It certainly wouldn't be decided by March as you originally implied.

Replace 5 where the 1 is in my original post, problem solved.

Ok, so where's the threshold for significance? We're already talking about tens if not hundreds of millions in net sales, I doubt even the largest company involved in HD media considers that revenue stream to be negligible.

 

[willardjuice]

Ok, so where's the threshold for significance? We're already talking about tens if not hundreds of millions in net sales, I doubt even the largest company involved in HD media considers that revenue stream to be negligible.

As of December 1st Blu-ray and HD DVD have sold 6.2 million discs combined. The threshold of significance is going to be a lot higher than that.

I humored him; I don't actually believe it's closer to 5%, but it was hardly worth arguing about because 6.2 million discs sold in over a year is nothing to studios.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Ok, so where's the threshold for significance? We're already talking about tens if not hundreds of millions in net sales, I doubt even the largest company involved in HD media considers that revenue stream to be negligible.

The only way you'd be talking about hundreds of millions (any number >$100 million) in gross sales is if you're talking about the total of all HD media worldwide for the year. No single studio is getting near a sniff of that amount as of yet. Comparably a movie like transformers moved near $100 million in sales on dvd in the first week.

Right now HD media would be best compared to chocolate bar sales at a gas station. There's money to be made so they sell them, but they aren't looking to pay the rent with that market.

 

[lopri]

Here is one for the players:

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6510883

And here are some surveys:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6513775.html?industryid=47213

I'm still trying to remember where I've read that 4~5% of discs being HD, but I could assure you that it's not 1%. And judging from the change of your attitude, I'd assume that you indeed think that 5% of the total is of significance?

 

[willardjuice]

Here is one for the players:

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6510883

And here are some surveys:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6513775.html?industryid=47213

Huh? I don't care about surveys.

And judging from the change of your attitude, I'd assume that you indeed think that 5% of the total is of significance?

As of December 1st Blu-ray and HD DVD have sold 6.2 million discs combined. The threshold of significance is going to be a lot higher than that.

I humored him; I don't actually believe it's closer to 5%, but it was hardly worth arguing about because 6.2 million discs sold in over a year is nothing to studios.

It's as if you don't read my posts.

 

[Zaphod]

As of December 1st Blu-ray and HD DVD have sold 6.2 million discs combined.

Worldwide? NA? Just for reference: According to the DVD Entertainment Group, NA DVD software sales for 2006 were 1.66 billion titles on a 88 million households reach.

 

[lopri]

Well, maybe you don't care about surveys, but many people do. But I didn't post those links to back up my early argument - I can't seem to remember where I read the actual percentage in Thanksgiving week, and while searching, I happened to ran into several articles which were in liine with my thinking.

And you're quoting 6.2M figure which seems to be a year-to-date number, but if it was January 2007 I would agree that Blu-Ray/HD-DVD disc sales were close to nil. I mean, how many Blu-Ray/HD-DVD discs were available in January 2007? People can't buy when there is nothing, you know.

On the same token, I seriously doubt that you're so worked up in a forum talking about Blu-Ray/HD-DVD past January. As a matter of fact, I think all this internet talk about Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD is very proportionate to people's interest in High Definition, which will only grow rapidly over time.

 

[willardjuice]

Worldwide? NA? Just for reference: According to the DVD Entertainment Group, NA DVD software sales for 2006 were 1.66 billion titles on a 88 million households reach.

Yes sorry I forgot to mention, those were North American numbers (not that I think adding world wide numbers would affect this much).

I mean, how many Blu-Ray/HD-DVD discs were available in January 2007?

I don't think the lack of titles in January are the reason Blu-ray and HD DVD didn't sell well; it's more to do with lack of players and install base.

On the same token, I seriously doubt that you're so worked up in a forum talking about Blu-Ray/HD-DVD past January.

Then you would be seriously mistaken. The only difference between now and January is that everyone was patient back in January, but now people are starting to jump the gun a bit. Thus discussions follow.