What does HD DVD need to stay in the game, and when do they need it by?

[Valzic]

I think that few more months comment is maybe alluding to seeing the results of xmas purchases. I suspect may players were bought for presents and potentially a few months would have shown some purchases of HD-DVD's to play on those players.

With Warner's announcemet, a few people may not buy as many as they might have.

I held off of buying a player as I have plans to build an HTPC unit and put in an internal drive. It was going to be a dual format but.... i will watch until I have to make final purchase.

 

[willardjuice]

It doesn't seem that any trends were headed in HD DVD's favor

HD DVD has been gaining ground (though admittedly nothing huge) in sales the past few weeks. I think the trend would have continued (and picked up speed once a $100 player came out).

 

[BRiT]

Damn. Just as I was thinking the format-war was going to get interesting due to the massive sales of HD DVD players during the Christmas season, they had to announce going BluRay.

I was hoping for HD to pick up some ground, because I picked up a cheap HD DVD player and just as cheap Xbox 360 HD addon. I'm thinking my last HD DVD purchased will be when they offer the 5th Harry Potter movie in the next BOGO offer. Maybe there will be some deals to be had on eBay now. One things for certain, I wont be making as much of an investment in HD DVD media now as I would have otherwise.

The only way I see myself going BluRay is if the latest profile player is available for $100 or a combo-format player hits $200.

 

[Ty]

HD DVD has been gaining ground (though admittedly nothing huge) in sales the past few weeks. I think the trend would have continued (and picked up speed once a $100 player came out).

Welp, this may ironically spur a huge price drop in HD DVD players due to clearance sales. I wonder if I can take back my HD DVD player...

 

[Geo]

Buh-bye, HD DVD.

So, what's the over/under on Universal announcing they are going Blu? Paramount may not be able to even if they want to for awhile. . .

 

[Ty]

Interview: Why Warner Killed HD DVD by Going Full Throttle With Blu-ray

I would guess for every person waiting for 1 format like you there are 1000x more waiting on other things first.

When those issues are resolved then we can talk about the war stopping people from buying movies.

There's a number of reasons for the decline in DVD sales. First you have the online adoption, then you have format competition from blu-ray and hd dvd and then there's the other factor where many people just have most of the DVD's they really want, their back collections have been filled. There seems to be about 2 new releases a month that I buy, after that I'm more than happy to wait for the bargain bin. I'm sure there's some people sitting on the fence, but I'm not convinced that the sales of HD media will ever get to where DVD is today.

http://gizmodo.com/340956/interview-why-warner-went-full-throttle-with-blu+ray

Warner announced earlier today it was 100 percent Blu-ray. We just talked a bit with Warner about some of the whys behind the decision. In a sentence: Because the format war is killing regular DVD sales on top of hurting sales of both HD formats.

Home entertainment president Kevin Tsujihara told us that what was "somewhat troubling" is the "impact consumer confusion was starting to have" on regular DVD. "Consumers were saying 'Hey, I might was well wait.'"

Essentially Warner is saying they went BR exclusive precisely because of my two earlier assertions, that DVD sales are falling due to the format war AND consumers are waiting for one format to kill off the other before moving up.

 

[Valzic]

They are supporting HD-DVD until May 2008 so I think they would show up.

Looks like that just got cancelled also.

 

[AlNom]

Essentially Warner is saying they went BR exclusive precisely because of my two earlier assertions, that DVD sales are falling due to the format war AND consumers are waiting for one format to kill off the other before moving up.

To be precise, they picked a high definition format for those reasons. What you quoted didn't say precisely why they went BD over HD.

Blu-ray hardware sales in the 4th quarter were accelerating, especially in December "despite the price premium," which Warner thought was "telling" about consumer demand. Rationally, they're going to go for the growth market, especially if they're looking at the possibility of both stagnant (HD) and declining (DVD) markets on their hands.

 

[quest55720]

http://gizmodo.com/340956/interview-why-warner-went-full-throttle-with-blu+ray

Essentially Warner is saying they went BR exclusive precisely because of my two earlier assertions, that DVD sales are falling due to the format war AND consumers are waiting for one format to kill off the other before moving up.

Want to take some bets on that? The war is over so can we expect blu stand along player sales to skyrocket? Will DVD sales skyrocket also? It is just lip service I am sure they got some breaks on licensing fees ect maybe not pure cash. I don't know any average person who is now going to go out and buy a 399 dollar player and 30 dollar movies that will only work on that player. The average person does not care about PQ and SQ. It was not PQ and SQ that won over j6p it was no rewind, no degration every viewing, no eating of tapes, and form factor.

 

[PARANOiA]

That is a very interesting question. What will happen to sales now? Will BR sales start pulling away from the previous combined sales of BR + HD? Will DVD recover or simply continue to decline? Has it made any of you comfortable in picking up a BR player now if you've been sitting on the HD fence?

I can't see HD DVD simply dropping out of the market now, however... but what reason is there to pick up a HD DVD player now?

 

[N00b]

I wonder if Warner's move will actually accelerate or decelerate HD adoption. Let's assume that the HD-DVD camp admits defeat and pulls out. It's quite likely that prices of BD players and movies will not drop as fast as they would, if there was a healthy competing format. This may lead to a situation where people rather rent (BD or DVD) than buy (BD or DVD), which could result in lower overall sales.

 

[patsu]

It's probably an open question.

People will continue to monitor the data as usual. If the adoption rate is slower then expected, they can consider dropping the price further without splintering the market like right now.

 

[RobertR1]

That is a very interesting question. What will happen to sales now? Will BR sales start pulling away from the previous combined sales of BR + HD? Will DVD recover or simply continue to decline? Has it made any of you comfortable in picking up a BR player now if you've been sitting on the HD fence?

I can't see HD DVD simply dropping out of the market now, however... but what reason is there to pick up a HD DVD player now?

There is really no good reason to pick up a HD DVD player going forward. Universal and Paramount alone can't handle Disney, Fox, Warner and Sony.

Couple this with the marketing momentum from the Warner switch and it's almost a done deal.

 

[N00b]

On a side note: I wonder what a HD-DVD failure would mean for Microsoft's multimedia/entertainment strategy? It seems they always finish second (at best). Maybe it's some time to open the wallet and buy some stake in some media companies?

 

[quest55720]

On a side note: I wonder what a HD-DVD failure would mean for Microsoft's multimedia/entertainment strategy? It seems they always finish second (at best). Maybe it's some time to open the wallet and buy some stake in some media companies?

I don't think it means to much at all. The plan all along is downloadable video the hd-dvd was like me betting on the long shot at the races. If it pans out cool if not I am only out a few bucks. It was toshiba who footed the bill for the format war. The only money MS will lose is what the spend on hd-i and the 360 software play back which I guess they can use in the future for downloadable video. Personally I think downloadable faces the same issues as blu with the average consumer and will be just a niche like blu.

 

[patsu]

I think the clarity may actually help them plan better. No more unrealistic "What if's". They can formulate a more affirmative and aggressive next step. In the same vein, a Blu-ray Toshiba can be more welcomed than a HD DVD Toshiba to some.

 

[Ty]

Want to take some bets on that? The war is over so can we expect blu stand along player sales to skyrocket? Will DVD sales skyrocket also? It is just lip service I am sure they got some breaks on licensing fees ect maybe not pure cash. I don't know any average person who is now going to go out and buy a 399 dollar player and 30 dollar movies that will only work on that player. The average person does not care about PQ and SQ. It was not PQ and SQ that won over j6p it was no rewind, no degration every viewing, no eating of tapes, and form factor.

Here's a question back at you then. At the end of 6 months from now, just what percentage increase of BR players would convince you? Assuming no crazy $99 BR player, which I can't foresee happening anytime soon.

And no, I don't think anyone expects DVD sales to climb again, that would just be silly.

 

[N00b]

I don't know. Sony winning with BD could mean a head start when downloadable content becomes a reality. So even if Microsoft isn't losing any real money, it's position could have be seriously weakened.

 

[Ty]

If Netflix can follow through on their promises, they might be able to jump start the whole concept of downloadable movies.

 

[patsu]

Like this one ? http://www.contentagenda.com/article/CA6516429.html?industryid=45173

Everyone seems to be running as fast as their little legs can carry them.