What does HD DVD need to stay in the game, and when do they need it by?

PS3 drives Blu-ray component price down too. So it should be possible to launch new Blu-ray players at a lower cost compared to last year

If Blu-ray keeps its player price reasonably low

You implied they were already low (which they aren't) and not that I think $400 is much better.

In fact, it is said that BDA has started to talk to chinese makers 2 months ago

Sounds like it's from a very creditable source...:rolleyes:

what it means is that BDA has jump started their digital download service with 4+ million installed base today.

And screwed over every owner with a standalone player today (though I agree that's not many people).
 
Infinitely upgradeable B-r, top-notch game console, backward compatibility with PS1 & PS2 games, media server, DVR, wifi, bluetooth, HDMI, multi-format flash card reader, built-in (and upgradeable) hard drive - all for $499 or less.

Yeah but I just want to watch movies. It's a bit pathetic I had to buy a big gaming console to do that, looks real good in my living room...
 
That makes it really attractive for companies to manufacture standalones right?

Exactly. Not wanting to subsidize the market out of their own pocket, the other manufacturers other than Sony and Toshiba seem to be overpricing and waiting for component prices to drop, and the market to take off before jumping in with a reasonably priced product. I think the price of players of players of both formats (PS3 and Toshiba players excluded) will drop dramatically once that happens.
 
You implied they were already low (which they aren't) and not that I think $400 is much better.

I believe Samsung lowered their 1.0 player to US$299 (with rebates). That's low enough for many. It will go lower next year. From sales history, not many people care about iHD. So it is also possible for BDA to compete at the low end with respectable 1.0 players (despite the BD 1.1 deadline), and 1.1 or above for the mid to high end.

Sounds like it's from a very creditable source...:rolleyes:

It was in a news report last month, but I don't have the link (Didn't bother. Like I said, BDA and HD DVD forum will always explore ways to advance).

And screwed over every owner with a standalone player today (though I agree that's not many people).

Happens in every CE such as iPod. They are already aware of the BD tiered specs anyway. So this is nothing new.
 
not many people care about iHD.

Oh so I can assume you went around asking every single person their feelings on this? :rolleyes: Please, I don't care about what you think the trend might be, I care about what the actual trend is.

but I don't have the link

Didn't think you did.

They are already aware of the BD tiered specs anyway.

Yes I bet the average buyer of a standalone Blu-ray player knows all about the different specifications...
 
Oh so I can assume you went around asking every single person their feelings on this? :rolleyes: Please, I don't care about what you think the trend might be, I care about what the actual trend is.

I was using the "300" sales on both HD DVD and Blu-ray since they were launched together, and there was no BOGO sale or timed exclusive to distort the numbers. Then after that, Blu-ray consistently outsold HD DVD (when there is no BOGO sale for both).

Didn't think you did.

You should be able to find the article online like this:
http://www.contentagenda.com/article/CA6485974.html?industryid=45173

After initially turning a cold shoulder to China, the Blu-ray Disc Assn. is warming up to Chinese OEMs and consumers, BDA spokesman and Pioneer Electronics senior VP Andy Parsons tells Content Agenda.

"We would have been foolish to think that limiting the involvement of Chinese manufacturers is something that could be sustained for a long time," Parsons said. "Initially it made sense to keep margins high to try to recoup some of the investment that went into the format, but we always knew that as we got into more competitive price points we would have to look for ways to take some of the costs out."

Don't be afraid to use google next time. ;-)
I am not going to follow their every move.

Yes I bet the average buyer of a standalone Blu-ray player knows all about the different specifications...

If they don't know, they bought the player without the intention to use the advanced specs anyway. Like I said, BDA is very upfront about the tiers. As long as they price the differences fairly, it's fair game. As specs evolve, this is inevitable anyway.
 
If they don't know, they bought the player without the intention to use the advanced specs anyway. Like I said, BDA is very upfront about the tiers. As long as they price the differences fairly, it's fair game. As specs evolve, this is inevitable anyway.

I wouldn't agree with that. I think most CE buyers are not as tuned in as your average retail channel video card buyer for finding these things out. Or rather, I'd agree that they "had no intention", but will be annoyed later to find out that the Blu-ray label was not enough to guarantee them full functionality (whatever that turned out to be). But then that's only a few hundred thousand people anyway, most likely. But certainly some of them will be annoyed.
 
The key is in the pricing ( and the salesman >_< ). There should be other models with higher/newer specs and more expensive price tag in the showroom too. But you are right, there will always be some who are unhappy.

But we have digressed... BDA has not announced anything regarding digital download movies. Just my conjecture.
 
That makes it really attractive for companies to manufacture standalones right?

Just like the PS2 was the de facto DVD player back in the days before DVD became the standard, the PS3 is in a similar position to bring B-r into the mainstream. Sales of PS3s compared to stand-alone B-r players is easily evidence of this.

Yeah but I just want to watch movies. It's a bit pathetic I had to buy a big gaming console to do that, looks real good in my living room...

Had to buy? Forgive me for doubting that you have purchased a PS3, as I do not know of a dissatisfied PS3 owner, nor have heard of one.
 
I think both format need bigger TV screens. I would bet most people have TV sets < 30" and actually HD resolutions do not offer much there in terms of image quality at normal viewing distance. (Additionally many people have bad vision, i.e. they are short-sighted) I have only recently discovered the joy of HD when I bought an Epson TW-2000 full HD projector. Now I have a screen size of about 3.6m and SD at that size is sometimes almost unbearable (depending on the DVD quality and movie). But until people buy larger TVs or projectors I cannot see HD getting off.
 
It might help if the people promoting HD DVD started thinking more out of the box.

I'm sure there are a lot of old black and white classics that could be acquired cheaply and then encoded onto dirt cheap single or dual layer DVD's.

Start bundling them with players and thusly getting people thinking that they already have a library of HD DVD movies. With a big enough bundle of classics, that might also snag people who are the opposite of early adopters.

It might start people thinking that there are two groups, the mean and stingy group and the HD DVD group. :)

Then again, it's quite possible neither side wants to really get into a pissing match as to who is most willing to subsidize their format.

On the gripping hand, studio support aside, it will come down to value, imo.
 
It might help if the people promoting HD DVD started thinking more out of the box.

I'm sure there are a lot of old black and white classics that could be acquired cheaply and then encoded onto dirt cheap single or dual layer DVD's.

Start bundling them with players and thusly getting people thinking that they already have a library of HD DVD movies. With a big enough bundle of classics, that might also snag people who are the opposite of early adopters.

It might start people thinking that there are two groups, the mean and stingy group and the HD DVD group. :)

Then again, it's quite possible neither side wants to really get into a pissing match as to who is most willing to subsidize their format.

On the gripping hand, studio support aside, it will come down to value, imo.

How is giving away more movies 'thinking outside the box'? You already get between 5 and 12 titles with most of the hardware. There's no question that Sony has the best method for getting blu-ray players into peoples homes. Unfortunately for them the average ps3 owner has purchased all of 1 title. Obviously there is a cost for moving titles to HD, because the studios are certainly taking their sweet time.

When the price of HD hardware goes down to where DVD hardware is at you'll start to see people move over simply because they would perceive they are getting more for the same money. If I were in the market for a new dvd player and I saw an HD-A3 for $79 at the store, I'd simply buy it as a dvd replacement whether I intended to purchase the HD media or not.

The only problem they have after that is convincing people they should pay more for a movie because it's in HD. So far I think this is where HD media is having a problem.
 
Some truth there, tho I'm not sure if it's all that relevant to the topic. :) If 32" or smaller becomes the HDTV standard size in the living room, then all HD may be in trouble.
 
How is giving away more movies 'thinking outside the box'? You already get between 5 and 12 titles with most of the hardware. There's no question that Sony has the best method for getting blu-ray players into peoples homes. Unfortunately for them the average ps3 owner has purchased all of 1 title. Obviously there is a cost for moving titles to HD, because the studios are certainly taking their sweet time.

When the price of HD hardware goes down to where DVD hardware is at you'll start to see people move over simply because they would perceive they are getting more for the same money. If I were in the market for a new dvd player and I saw an HD-A3 for $79 at the store, I'd simply buy it as a dvd replacement whether I intended to purchase the HD media or not.

The only problem they have after that is convincing people they should pay more for a movie because it's in HD. So far I think this is where HD media is having a problem.

Because it might be a very cheap way to build up loyalty to the format. Inexpensive movies on cheap disks. Black and white movies are highly compressible and could fit on standard DVD disks while still being of high quality.

I agree about the pricing of the players. Hopefully manufacturers will be able to lower the prices of the newest version while still making a profit.
 
Some truth there, tho I'm not sure if it's all that relevant to the topic. :) If 32" or smaller becomes the HDTV standard size in the living room, then all HD may be in trouble.

Well people continually talk about the format war between blu-ray and HD DVD but the reality is that DVD owns the market, they (the studios) need to do something to change that. Do you really believe that most people are just waiting for one of the two HD formats to fold up shop and the winning format will quickly displace DVD? I don't think its that simple. They need to convince people there's a significant value upgrade, or they need to get close to or match the price of (at least the special edition) DVDs.
 
Just like the PS2 was the de facto DVD player back in the days before DVD became the standard, the PS3 is in a similar position to bring B-r into the mainstream. Sales of PS3s compared to stand-alone B-r players is easily evidence of this.

The PS2 was not the defacto DVD player ever in NA. The PS2 had almost 0 effect on DVD in north amerca. People were ready to move on from VHS and did soon as stand alone players got to a reasonable cost. The orginal PS2s DVD play back quality was awefull with compatibility issues with some discs. The only reason a PS2 was used for DVD play back was for the kids room but was replaced by the 30 dollar walmart special. DVD would of not skipped a beat of sony would of pushed a CD rom in the PS2. The situation is the complete opposite with the PS3/blu. The PS3 is blu ray plain and simple if the PS3 had no blu drive there would be no war because hd-dvd would of wiped the floor with blu.
 
Well people continually talk about the format war between blu-ray and HD DVD but the reality is that DVD owns the market, they (the studios) need to do something to change that. Do you really believe that most people are just waiting for one of the two HD formats to fold up shop and the winning format will quickly displace DVD? I don't think its that simple. They need to convince people there's a significant value upgrade, or they need to get close to or match the price of (at least the special edition) DVDs.

Quickly? No. But they can't even get started on the project until one offs the other or they reach a steady predictable co-existance. Right now I see the worst of all possible worlds. . .one next gen format with a commanding lead and the other bumping along looking very sickly. I really don't care which HD DVD does --gets healthy or dies, so long as it does one or the other soonish. If it wants to be the 65-35 leader week after week, that's fine with me. . . There's quite a lot of HD DVD content I'd like to buy once it becomes clear there is no reasonable chance of an orphaned library five years from now.
 
Do you really believe that most people are just waiting for one of the two HD formats to fold up shop and the winning format will quickly displace DVD? I don't think its that simple. They need to convince people there's a significant value upgrade, or they need to get close to or match the price of (at least the special edition) DVDs.

I know quite a few people, including myself, that are precisely doing that; sitting on the side refusing to buy any movies, BR, HD DVD, and yes, even DVDs, until one format is clearly dominant. Mind you this is all anecdotal and I do agree with the majority of your argument that DVD is still king and that the bulk of consumers will need to perceive value in the new format in order for them to transition. That said, declining DVD sales point to something wrong in the market.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/12042007/business/dvd_isaster_sales_806649.htm

The DVD businesses, one of the movie industry's biggest sources of profits, is expected to post a year-over-year sales decline for the first time since the format's rise a decade ago. DVD sales, which were flat a year ago at around $16 billion, were down over 4 percent through the end of November, and analysts expect a full-year drop of around 2 percent.
 
I know quite a few people, including myself, that are precisely doing that; sitting on the side refusing to buy any movies, BR, HD DVD, and yes, even DVDs, until one format is clearly dominant. Mind you this is all anecdotal and I do agree with the majority of your argument that DVD is still king and that the bulk of consumers will need to perceive value in the new format in order for them to transition. That said, declining DVD sales point to something wrong in the market.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/12042007/business/dvd_isaster_sales_806649.htm

My guess is online rental services like netflix and block buster have cut into DVD sales. For the price of 1 DVD you can get unlimited rentals 3 at a time. I think more people are renting than ever before. You can just add to your que and you are all set no driving to the store no late fees ect. If less people are willing to pay 14.99-19.99 for new release DVDs how many are going to pay 29.00+ for HDM media.

I would guess for every person waiting for 1 format like you there are 1000x more waiting on other things first.

1 Actually owning 1 or more HD-TVs.
2. Prices of the standalone players/media there is no huge reason for the average person to go with HDM at a premuim of 2x the movie cost and 5-10 times the player cost.
3. The issues with the player people just want to be able to put in a movie and play it. They are not going to want to put up with firmware updates or glitches with the players.
4. Having to either double dip on movies or having movies that won't work in the car or other standard DVD players in the house. As much as many hate them the combo discs could of been huge to solve this. To had there were play back issues for them and the until recently the premium charge for them.

When those issues are resolved then we can talk about the war stopping people from buying movies.

Alphawolf another great point about back collections being already filled as a reason DVD sales are down. I buy lots of DVDs for the family for x-mass. It does seem every year I buy fewer and fewer because I already have most of the older titles I want just leaving new releases. So many good black friday deals over the years have helped me get favorite older movies.
 
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I know quite a few people, including myself, that are precisely doing that; sitting on the side refusing to buy any movies, BR, HD DVD, and yes, even DVDs, until one format is clearly dominant. Mind you this is all anecdotal and I do agree with the majority of your argument that DVD is still king and that the bulk of consumers will need to perceive value in the new format in order for them to transition. That said, declining DVD sales point to something wrong in the market.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/12042007/business/dvd_isaster_sales_806649.htm

There's a number of reasons for the decline in DVD sales. First you have the online adoption, then you have format competition from blu-ray and hd dvd and then there's the other factor where many people just have most of the DVD's they really want, their back collections have been filled. There seems to be about 2 new releases a month that I buy, after that I'm more than happy to wait for the bargain bin. I'm sure there's some people sitting on the fence, but I'm not convinced that the sales of HD media will ever get to where DVD is today.
 
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