What constitutes a successful console? (other than profit!) *spawn

[Shifty Geezer]

You mentioned New Super Mario Bros (2009) selling 28m on Wii. Impressive. Now look at Super Mario Galaxy 2 (2010), a game with a 97 metacritic score, which sold 7.4m on Wii. How do you explain that?

It's a sequel on the same platform. Sequels of the same franchise on the same platform often sell less. On SNES SM:World = 20 million. SM:World2 = 7 million. On GB SMLand = 18 million. SML2 = 11 million. eg. God of War

Sales of 2 were lower than 1 the same platform. GoW3 on PS3 sold more than either.

Or Gran Turismo.

Nothing unusual about that. Now plot the data of Mario's sales...



Is there really a downwards trend there? Remove Wii U and NES as outliers and it's pretty obvious that Mario has had very variable sales per title, but they have always sold significantly, 4+ million. Very, very few IPs can ever have a hope of 15+ million units on one platform. All the big selling titles on MS and Sony consoles like GTA are cross-platform. Minecraft, on every platform under the sun, has apparently sold less than Mario Kart Wii fer cryin' out loud! The only game with one platform in that list of top selling titles that isn't on a Nintendo is Kinect Adventures, which dropped like a brick in its sequel.

How can you look at all this data and still conclude Mario hasn't got staying power? Even if you want to excuse it as there be no other games worth having on Nintendo consoles, that still means the game has staying power - just as a product of its environment. It's a game that gets best-selling numbers. Sony's IPs on PS4 (sequels and remakes) are around half Mario's numbers on a much larger platform. Is Infamous going to be pulling the same numbers in 10 years? No. Only an IP with significant staying power can remain relevant for that long.

 

[goonergaz]

If a tabcon was a concept Sony launched PS4 with and it had decent grunt and 3rd party support I'd consider buying it. But with the experience I've had from WiiU it has turned me off from the concept. Sony would need to implement a far superior version. I'm just glad Sony has the option of allowing Remote Play on my cell phone, even if I can't quite do that right now. That alone can be huge.

There was a rumour that the DS4 would have a mini screen I would have gone for that if the controller was a similar size. The main issues I see WiiU has is that the Wii market didn't really want to upgrade anyway, they were happy where they were - let alone adding that stupidly complicated looking and massive controller and a massive price tag for 'PS3/XB360' like performance. I suspect anyone wanting to upgrade the Wii 'experience' went to Kinect - it was like the natural progression and might explain why it sold so well (compared to K2).

Then when WiiU came out all you had left was the die hard Ninty fans - those that will buy all the Mario games (or at least a very high percentage).

 

[goonergaz]

It's a sequel on the same platform. Sequels of the same franchise on the same platform often sell less. On SNES SM:World = 20 million. SM:World2 = 7 million. On GB SMLand = 18 million. SML2 = 11 million. eg. God of War

Sales of 2 were lower than 1 the same platform. GoW3 on PS3 sold more than either.

Or Gran Turismo.

Nothing unusual about that. Now plot the data of Mario's sales...

View attachment 654

Is there really a downwards trend there? Remove Wii U and NES as outliers and it's pretty obvious that Mario has had very variable sales per title, but they have always sold significantly, 4+ million. Very, very few IPs can ever have a hope of 15+ million units on one platform. All the big selling titles on MS and Sony consoles like GTA are cross-platform. Minecraft, on every platform under the sun, has apparently sold less than Mario Kart Wii fer cryin' out loud! The only game with one platform in that list of top selling titles that isn't on a Nintendo is Kinect Adventures, which dropped like a brick in its sequel.

How can you look at all this data and still conclude Mario hasn't got staying power? Even if you want to excuse it as there be no other games worth having on Nintendo consoles, that still means the game has staying power - just as a product of its environment. It's a game that gets best-selling numbers. Sony's IPs on PS4 (sequels and remakes) are around half Mario's numbers on a much larger platform. Is Infamous going to be pulling the same numbers in 10 years? No. Only an IP with significant staying power can remain relevant for that long.

I generally agree, but 'less sales' and 'significantly less sales which much larger installed base' are 2 different things. I totally agree Mario has staying power, Ninty have been printing money off it for years and it seems their failures in the market are more down to bad h/w descisions.

Regarding InFamous I would tend to agree but we do not know, there might be a shift in the forumla - like Red Dead which went from mildly popular to massively popular.

 

[dobwal]

Yet people complain that PS4/XBO have a poor selection of software, nothing but better looking versions of rehashed titles (which apparently no-one cares about), nothing that 'stands out' and makes one of them a must have purchase - and here we are, with the PS4 making record sales and showing little signs of slowing up.

I don't think you should confuse people's impatience with fledgling consoles in the first couple of years of their release and the expectations of a console from a company that hasn't had widespread third party support in decades.

No one who bought a PS4 or Xb1 are under the impression that the current state of the libraries will persist throughout the generation. They know games like Uncharted, Halo5, Phantom Pain, The Division, the next Gears of War, the next GTA, the next Gran Turismo, the next Mass Effect and a bevy of other titles that coming from first party and a bunch of third party publishers are in the pipeline.

You may have a favorite developer or franchise thats the meat and potatoes of your console experience but the PS4 and X1 allows you lounge in a vat of gravy while you eat. And most people are waiting for those meats, potatoes and that vat to show up. LOL.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

It's a sequel on the same platform. Sequels of the same franchise on the same platform often sell less. On SNES SM:World = 20 million. SM:World2 = 7 million. On GB SMLand = 18 million. SML2 = 11 million. eg. God of War

That's contrary to expectations with a platform user base expanding over time and often isn't the case at all. Every Elder Scrolls game has sold more that it's predecessor, every Fallout game has sold mode than its predecessor, every Uncharted game has sold more than its predecessor, every GTA game has sold more than its predecessor. I looked at Infamous and Motorstorm but there aren't compete sales numbers but I believe Infamous 2 outsold Infamous - it charted higher and longer than Infamous in a market of more PS3s.

Nothing unusual about that. Now plot the data of Mario's sales...

No, it's normal that some franchises sell more each iteration and some won't.

Is there really a downwards trend there? Remove Wii U and NES as outliers and it's pretty obvious that Mario has had very variable sales per title, but they have always sold significantly, 4+ million. Very, very few IPs can ever have a hope of 15+ million units on one platform.

You need to normalise the data (sales relative the market size of the platform) for this graph to be meaningful. Presently you're comparing apples to pears to oranges to pineapples and melons

All the big selling titles on MS and Sony consoles like GTA are cross-platform. Minecraft, on every platform under the sun, has apparently sold less than Mario Kart Wii fer cryin' out loud!

Mario Kart sold 35m over six years. Why? Because it's the best racer on Wii - albeit with a metacritic score of 82, which says about all you need to know about the racing game scene on Wii. Like a restaurant selling only pasta, manure and rocks, pasta is going to sell quite well.

How can you look at all this data and still conclude Mario hasn't got staying power?

Because I'm considering factors that you are not and which your graph does not represent.

 

[goonergaz]

I don't think you should confuse people's impatience with fledgling consoles in the first couple of years of their release and the expectations of a console from a company that hasn't had widespread third party support in decades.

No one who bought a PS4 or Xb1 are under the impression that the current state of the libraries will persist throughout the generation. They know games like Uncharted, Halo5, Phantom Pain, The Division, the next Gears of War, the next GTA, the next Gran Turismo, the next Mass Effect and a bevy of other titles that coming from first party and a bunch of third party publishers are in the pipeline.

You may have a favorite developer or franchise thats the meat and potatoes of your console experience but the PS4 and X1 allows you lounge in a vat of gravy while you eat. And most people are waiting for those meats, potatoes and that vat to show up. LOL.

I don't even know what we're disagreeing about - maybe it's a combination of my poor reading and typing but essentially this is how I feel lol

Essentially whilst I stated I got PS4 for the ND games that was a bit of a wild extreme which clearly isn't the whole truth. I certainly don't think I could miss ND games - but if that were the only reason to get a PS4 I would have waited for some price drops rather than get it at launch. The main driver (for me) is "Sony" seem to deliver the type of games I enjoy and I'm also heavily invested (Vita, PS+ since day one) so it's an easy choice.

With WiiU I waited until I had a chance to get a cheap one, but I instantly regreted it - I got it for ZombiU (big zombie fan) but after a good start I just didn't feel it so sold it on to get my money back...I will no doubt pick up a WiiU for cheap at some point if only so my son can play Zelda and the others the Mario games...tho as they grow older they seem to be getting quite 'hardcore' with their gaming tastes.

As far as XBO goes I have next to no interest (FTR I got all 3 at launch last gen, even importing a Wii from US & PS3 from Japan) - XBox was my biggest regret last gen, I refused to pay for online and as I was invested in trophies the X360 ended up being for exclusives (in particular Halo & GoW - but even those I found to be a chore). We got Kinect and altough we're massive singstar fans and was interested in Dance Central we never really played it. This gen the exclusives for XBO are largely on PC (or will be at some point) and the only true exclusive that interests me is Sunset Overdrive...I dare say I will get one at some point, but with minimal gaming time these days it's hard to keep up as it is (only just started Dying Light!).

Sorry to go OT lol