Full Q/a With Tommy Tallarico Ps3 And 360

[Serenity Painted Death]

Predicting, confidently, that PS3 is going to outsell 360 worldwide (by a fairly large margine, though almost assuredly not 5 to 1 as it was this generation), is far easier and plausible than predicting the stock market.

There really is not a single shred of evidence to support the notion that 360 has any real chance of unseating Sony this go around. There are lots of ifs/buts/maybes/iftheworldends, but nothing substantive.

It is REASONABLE to assume that the PS2's (most of them, anyway) titles will also be on PS3. It is UNREASONABLE to assume that all this amazing developer support is going to vanish and rematerialize on 360 (why not Revolution?).

It is /more/ REASONABLE to assume that MS's newfound Japanese developer support will transer to PS3/Revolution as the generation proceeds. Many of the games being created for Japan still don't have U.S. release dates, though I imagine they will eventually, as you simply can't do that well selling to a userbase that, at best, is hoping to get to half a million. Even then, will developers that /aren't being paid for by Microsoft/ be content with selling /horrendously/ in thier native land?

It is REASONABLE to assume that the console that will sell ~20M+ in Japan, while the other won't reach half a million, will win worldwide. It is UNREASONABLE to assume that 360 will make up over 20 million on Sony in Europe (which is heavily pro-Sony) and N.A. which, while by far the most balanced of the three, still prefers PS to Xbox. Even if they draw even in N.A. (the best MS can realistically hope for - and still a very long shot), that leaves them to make up 20 million in Europe. No way Jose.

It is REASONABLE to assume that software sells sytems. It is UNREASONABLE to assume that Xbox live, which was something like single digit percentage for Xbox, will be the deciding factor of this console generaiton. It will grow, and it will be far more important in future generations, but this is not remotely close to a deal breaker this generation. Furthermore, we have no idea as to what Sony will or will not do, so everything as far as comparative advantages are concerned is complete speculation, though I do find it overwhelmingly likely that 360 will have better online.

For all intents and purposes, this generation went something like this:

N.A. EU JPN

41M 37M 22M PS2

~15M? ~6M? 500K XBOX

(unsure of exact Xbox figures, but those seem plausible)

Japan will pretty much be more of the same, with a free 15-20 million units (maybe Revolution can dent it).

N.A., at the absolute most green-tinted-glasses best, will be a tie. Then, in Europe, we need Sony to do... DISMAL, and 360 to rise in sales over Xbox by many hundreds of percantage points. Right...

I mean, REALLY, what actual evidence is there to support that Xbox has any chance at reversing this, or, really, keeping the final ratio at less than 3/2: 1? I could still see as bad as 4:1 depending on how a few things go.

Though, in the end, I suppose the ultimate wild card is the PRICE of the PS3, which could very well give it problems, but I don't think Sony is that stupid. Pricing of 500 bucks would /REALLY/ be pushing it, but they could probably survive (but would take marketshare hits they wouldn't otherwise). Anything over that is probably ritualistic suicide.

I expect 360 to do better WW, by a good margin, but I'm unsure as to whether this will actually hurt Sony all that much (Nintendo however...). But to seriously suggest it will /WIN/ is pure craziness at this point, at least until we have more information. Unless you use about every doomsday scenario possible for PS3, it just isn't plausible at this point in time.

 

[Ben-Nice]

Are you sure they don't need to? Where is all the downloadable media (via CONNECT) going to go? Are they going to force everyone to buy Memory Sticks? Are they going to support USB HDDs? I can see a LOT of scenarios where storage would be extremely desirable. They have some options, but having a HDD is an extra revenue stream for them. Plus I thought I recall KK making some comments to the effect that there will be a PS3 branded NAS device.

And your comment about DVDs and BR is neither here not there. It has absolutely nothing to do with anything in this discussion.

Umm you can have a hard drive if you want one, that is a given. They are not making it standard due to not having a particular size that suits everyone.Buy a memory stick or get a hard drive.

 

[jpr27]

Ive said it before and I will say it again. Never underestimate MS and when they want something they put their money where there mouth is. I agree with most that although the Xbox 360 may not beat PS3 this generation, I do think it will make gains. They have already stated (I think it was Mr. Gates) that irregardless of the outcome this gen, they are in this for the long haul. There is no doubt there will be great games for both systems and time will tell. As we all know over the years there have been a changing of the guards and I think in no way is Sony unbeatable. They are not vunerable at this point and definately have the upperhand this generation but never say never.

IMO MS biggest problem with Sony and Japan is culture. They are finally grasping this and slowly trying to work their way into Japans mainstream culture. Although they still have a long way to go They did a great job with hiring some great japanese developers with the Xbox 360 and they will hopefully continue to do so. But Japan is very loyal to their local corporations (unlike the U.S. where we have a broader appeal to all national products that can entertain us) I think many outsiders have a hard time penetrating the Japanese culture as a mainstream corporation there. (Especially one that is somewhat "shady" like MS )

I see Sony continuing dominance through this generation (Xbox 360 vs PS3) but I do see MS making gains in Japan overall and I believe that Xbox live arcade will have more appeal then some might expect. With the Sony online strategy still unknown I think this might work out well for MS (Xbox Live has been greatly improved this generation and is rumored to expand more) as broadband growth continues. I dont really see the real contest between the two makers until the next generation (X3 and PS4). I think although Sony will again have market share lead, it wont be the massive margin it is now. As for Nintendo sorry until I receive more information I cant comment on them at this time.

As for T.T., I admire his work he has done over the years but like others I do see a preference in his outlook (some IMO very speculative) on some of the systems. I do agree though that Japan does have some of the brightest and most talented game creators in the industry. But in the gaming industry if the consoles both show strengths and market penetration, then some of these developers could very well work with the MS (or Vice Versa) with current and future consoles all for the sake of getting great games (which they take great pride in) into millions of gamers hands. As for now Sony will get most of the love

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

I'm just curious to see when MS tries to bring out their next console. I don't think it would be a good move for them, or the industry as a whole, if they keep trying to go only 4 (or perhaps less) years between systems. This seems to be their strategy, though, as Sony likely can't keep up with this pace, but I don't think they would, nor will they need to if that is indeed what MS has planned. 360 should do a good bit better than Xbox, so perhaps they'll keep it around.

 

[mckmas8808]

Ive said it before and I will say it again. Never underestimate MS and when they want something they put their money where there mouth is. I agree with most that although the Xbox 360 may not beat PS3 this generation, I do think it will make gains. I dont really see the real contest between the two makers until the next generation (X3 and PS4). I think although Sony will again have market share lead, it wont be the massive margin it is now.

See that's the problem. Throwing money at the situation isn't the end all be all answer. If it was MS would be selling more consoles in Japan.

And why are you talking about PS4 and X3? MS is losing 100 million to 25 million now. Next-gen if they lose 100 to 50 that's still bad (even though many don't want to admit it). So why say the real contest isn't until X3 and PS4? The real contest is NOW!

 

[see colon]

i'm thinking we'll see a pretty even split this round between MS and sony. unless nintendo can monkey-wrench one of them somehow.

 

[mckmas8808]

i'm thinking we'll see a pretty even split this round between MS and sony. unless nintendo can monkey-wrench one of them somehow.

Can you explain how MS will make up the millions of consoles that Sony will have in Japan that MS probably won't.

 

[see colon]

i said pretty even, not exactly even

i don't expect MS to outdo sony in every territory. i think EU or NA will prefer the 360 over the ps3. i'm just saying i don't think it'll be a 4:1 lead this time. it'll be much closer to an equal split.

 

[Sethamin]

Wow, we do have quite the number of armchair analysts here, don't we?

Everyone needs to relax and take a deep breath. You're trying to predict the future with totally incomplete information and assumptions. Meditate on what you really know about the PS3: the answer is "very little". We know some technical specs about the CPU, the fact that it will have BR...and that's about it. We know very little about the GPU. We don't know what the case will look like (only a conceptual prototype keeps being shown). We don't know what the controller will look like (it won't be the batarang). We don't know what the interface will look like (probably the Cross Bar Media Interface, but that's just a guess). We don't know what it will cost, or if it will have multiple SKUs, or a HDD, or the massive boondoggle of ports they showed, or what kind of media support it will have. We have no idea if games will be released on BR, or DVD. We have never really seen any in-game footage for that matter. We have this very vague, hazy notion of what the PS3 will be, that everyone keeps filling in the details for themselves. All we have are guesses, and lots of them.

There are so many things that could happen this year to change the equation, too. Sony could release at a massive price point. Or they could have manufacturing problems and only manage to get 2 million units out. Or they could release it without a working BD-J implementation. Or there could be massive QA issues. What if the box is just plain fugly? What if they do stick with the batarang controller?

My long, long, long winded point is this: we can probably all agree that the ball is in Sony's court. If they can execute and cash the check that their PR has written for them, they will likely remain #1. But that's a big IF. If they stumble this year and allow MS to emerge from 2006 with a very 5 million unit lead, then I don't think their eventual leadership is at all preordained. But in any case, I'd like to see some semblance of a product from Sony before making any predictions. Right now I think everyone is just throwing darts drunk.

 

[Ben-Nice]

. Right now I think everyone is just throwing darts drunk.

I'm good at thowing darts drunk...

Anyway, they had 2 of the most successful gaming consoles in history. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they might know what they are doing. MS is going to close the gap though. Law of averages say you can't be on top forever but I think it will take a little longer.

 

[Sis]

Anyway, they had 2 of the most successful gaming consoles in history. I

The thing that impresses me most about Sony in regards to the Playstation is that they have never made a single misstep that I know of. They know when to announce features, when to release new products, they have an excellent balance of first party devs, and excellent marketing. What they do sometimes flies in the face of what one would assume they should do, but it seems to always work out.

Now, the PS3 has some of their most daring decisions yet and I always tend to think that their streak has to end eventually. But we'll see. Since hearing that MS has only managed to sell roughly a 600,000 units in NA, my opinion is shifting back to "who knows where things will end up."

 

[mckmas8808]

The thing that impresses me most about Sony in regards to the Playstation is that they have never made a single misstep that I know of. They know when to announce features, when to release new products, they have an excellent balance of first party devs, and excellent marketing. What they do sometimes flies in the face of what one would assume they should do, but it seems to always work out.

Now, the PS3 has some of their most daring decisions yet and I always tend to think that their streak has to end eventually. But we'll see. Since hearing that MS has only managed to sell roughly a 600,000 units in NA, my opinion is shifting back to "who knows where things will end up."

And Sis I'm going to say right here you are a good man. We don't agree on alot of stuff, but you can debate your opinion very well. But the part that I bolded is very important and I'm glad that you mentioned it. Some people on these internet game forums give less credit to Sony for their domiance and state that it was mostly due to Nintendo and Sega making mistakes and that MS came to the market too late.

I'm mentioning this because I can easily see 5 years from now (If Sony wins next-gen outright) saying that MS gave it to Sony due to some problems that are happening now. And then if Nintendo doesn't do better next-gen people are going to say they handed it over to Sony because their specs weren't high enough.

I'm glad that you at least notice the real reason why Sony has done so well over the last decade. I wonder if Tommy Tallarico will talk more before the Feb event that Sony is having?

 

[Ginko]

The thing that impresses me most about Sony in regards to the Playstation is that they have never made a single misstep that I know of. They know when to announce features, when to release new products, they have an excellent balance of first party devs, and excellent marketing. What they do sometimes flies in the face of what one would assume they should do, but it seems to always work out.

Now, the PS3 has some of their most daring decisions yet and I always tend to think that their streak has to end eventually. But we'll see. Since hearing that MS has only managed to sell roughly a 600,000 units in NA, my opinion is shifting back to "who knows where things will end up."

Well, you have to consider they've only sold roughly 600,000 units because that's all there was to sell. It certainly doesn't have anything to do with a lack of demand or interest.

 

[Sis]

Well, you have to consider they've only sold roughly 600,000 units because that's all there was to sell. It certainly doesn't have anything to do with a lack of demand or interest.

Right--I was of the opinion that the Xbox 360 was going to give the PS3 a good challenge, based on my opinion of the overal system and the apparent selling frenzy in both NA and EUR.

I still think it will do well based on my opinion of the system, but I no longer think we have meaningful information about console sales since launch in order to extrapolate at all about how the 360 is actually doing--except, unfortunately, in Japan where we know it's not being received well yet.

 

[Ginko]

Right--I was of the opinion that the Xbox 360 was going to give the PS3 a good challenge, based on my opinion of the overal system and the apparent selling frenzy in both NA and EUR.

I still think it will do well based on my opinion of the system, but I no longer think we have meaningful information about console sales since launch in order to extrapolate at all about how the 360 is actually doing--except, unfortunately, in Japan where we know it's not being received well yet.

Sorry, then. Cheers.

 

[blakjedi]

Personally I think MS should have adopted an inverse Japanese release plan. Usually Japanese console makers release in Japan first, and give western devs and Japanese devs making games for western tastes a full year to make games. This also allows the hardware kinks to be worked out over the first year so that the other territories recieve a fairly mature device. "Let the Americans and Euros wait!!!"

MS should have put all of their muster and might into fully stealing the NA market with Europe a little after and Japan almost the next damn year. Let the Japanese wait while everyone else is playing next gen. Let them buildup anticipation by not having a release console in their midst and paying exorbitant import prices... by the time the 360 released... it would have mature games and people waiting to taste it......

Bah!

 

[mckmas8808]

by the time the 360 released... it would have mature games and people waiting to taste it......

Bah!

I agree with your whole post until you put the 'people waiting to taste it' part. People would have been tasting PS3 and Revolution for months by then. The Japanese people probably wouldn't have cared about a 360 then.

 

[Deepblue]

I was just wondering if anyone here stopped to realize what a tool T.T. is. PGR3s trees 2d? Riiiight. Then there's the fact that he gave Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, quite possibly the lowest reviewed game in existence, a 9.0, while giving Ninja Gaiden a 7.0.

Therefore, I believe his opinion to be of no worth. Just my 2c.

 

[.Melchiah.]

i said pretty even, not exactly even

i don't expect MS to outdo sony in every territory. i think EU or NA will prefer the 360 over the ps3. i'm just saying i don't think it'll be a 4:1 lead this time. it'll be much closer to an equal split.

I expect Xbox 2 and PS3 to have a more fierce fight in NA territory than they did this gen, but I think X2 will still end up as a second, the only question is how large (or small) the gap will be between the 1st and the 2nd. I'm quite sure the gap will be more or less smaller this time.

I honestly don't think there's any doubt that EU wouldn't once again be dominated by Sony. I think Microsoft may get a bit closer to Sony though. The question is will Nintendo strengthen its position in Europe and if so, will that weaken Sony's or Microsoft's position there?

And I'm sure Microsoft's console will once again fail in Japan. Maybe not as badly as the first one, but I don't think it will do a much better either.

 

[bleon]

T.T. is better positioned than most people to judge how PS3 games are shaping up so its a bit silly to label him as an idiot. What I think is impressing him the most are the physics effects (such as the swaying tree he mentioned). In the PS3 demos we've seen, many have gone overboard on physics simulation but this was not true for the MS games.

I wonder why hasn't MS showcased amazing physics in any of their games. I suspect the hardware will choke when attempting to do what the PS3 does.

When MS kickstarted next gen, they emphasised more pixels and Higher definition. Sony emphasised HD, physics and amazing animation. In terms of having a next gen vision and foresight, MS seem a bit clueless.