Are there flaws in Sony's PS3 strategy?

[MrSingh]

I read the title and thought "hey.. how do chinese people figure in Sony's PS3 strategy...".

Oh wait.

 

[PC-Engine]

What bomb???? I still stand behind my opinions, I still think your post that I replied to was illogical. The "bomb" must have missed, or was it the "$300" price point? In that case I didn't catch your "bomb"

Failing to grasp a concept is not an opinion, it's just a result of being....D....

How about giving me another LOL?

 

[Qroach]

I think the real term is "kink". reading that title made me cringe!

 

[PC-Engine]

I think the real term is "kink". reading that title made me cringe!

Actually I think it's supposed to be chinks like chinks in armor.

 

[Acert93]

I think the real term is "kink". reading that title made me cringe!

Actually I think it's supposed to be chinks like chinks in armor.

Yeah "chinks in the armor" was intended. It was late and the elipsis not that clear... I should probably change that. No racial slur meant at all guys. Sorry

 

[GwymWeepa]

I think the real term is "kink". reading that title made me cringe!

I really do think both can be used, if you check out both their definitions. I've always heard chink.

 

[YeuEmMaiMai]

I think if they could Nintendo MS and Sony would definately move to a rent your console concept.

MS tried that with windows and the IT industry backlashed like there was no tomorrow....

 

[rabidrabbit]

What bomb???? I still stand behind my opinions, I still think your post that I replied to was illogical. The "bomb" must have missed, or was it the "$300" price point? In that case I didn't catch your "bomb"

Failing to grasp a concept is not an opinion, it's just a result of being....DUMB

How about giving me another LOL?

Me dumb? Here's your LOL, i.... ->

 

[London Geezer]

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CHAFF!! KAH-CHINK!!!


...KA....


.....ME.....


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................ME.........


....................AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Wunderchu]

Someone buy Acert93 a new keyboard. Dang this guy makes the longest posts.

Anyway, I skimmed and thought I'd comment on this: price point. You bring up a possible weakness, yes. As long as MS can convince people the X2 is not inherently inferior to the PS3, this stands a chance at being a thorn in Sony's side. It's really easy for Sony to stay with Xbox pricing. It's 1.5 years newer and costs a lot more because of rookie mistakes on MS's part. However, remove the rookie mistakes and turn around the time difference (should only be 6 months turned around) and tracking with MS may become follow-the-leader. MS could choose to make more money per unit or force Sony into the red longer than desired.

Of course, as you say, it's all potential weakness.

I agree

 

[Wunderchu]

Note: This is a long post... so if you hate reading ignore It also is not anti-Sony as you will see. It is more inquisitive about how the next gen is shaping up... it is meant to stimulate discussion. None of my statements are to be taken as "this is the only way" but more of "what if" and "lets consider". Oh, and it was written at 3am Oh, and for those who do not want to read all of this, my basic conclusion is:

From a HW perspective I must say I am just floored that they are aiming to put this thing in a console....

So it would seem for MS/Nintendo to gain significant ground on the PS3 will require great marketing, killer apps people want, broad developer support, and a little luck. But my guess is that to be within 10% of Sony PS3 sales after 3 or 4 years of the PS3 release will require Sony to make some significant mistakes or some unforeseen changes in the industry...

Things are looking Very bright for Sony.

Those were my conclusions, as of now. Feel free to try to change them any way you want

Are there chinks in Sony's PS3 strategy?

Before I begin my thought spamming, I will admit we do not know much about the PS3 yet. Just basics from the patents and news clippings here and there. So there are no new revelations here, just me pulling some of my ideas together concerning Sony's PS3 strategy.

The following is primarily is about the HW with a spattering of other relevant issues. As we all know, HW is only one of many factors that affect a consoles success. I personally believe that marketing and game developer support are more important than HW. You need good HW, but completive HW is more than sufficient with effective marketing and broad developer support with a good library of exclusives. So my thoughts/questions about the PS3 Strategy are skewed... just an FYI.

For MS/Nintendo to gain significant ground will require not only a great product with robust 3rd party support but also for Sony to make some noticeable mistakes that MS/Nintendo can capitalize on. I was thinking about this and began breaking down Sony's current Hardware strategy. Are their chinks in the PS3 HW strategy? I have to say I am pretty impressed with what we know:

• BR... 50GB of data for HD TV/DVD playback. Big and Fast. No arguing against bigger and faster, and considering exclusive support from Sony's in-house movie studios and growing support from the entire market it looks like BR has a better than good chance to be the HD storage medium of choice.

• CELL... If the CELL pulls of a couple hundred GFLOPs the PS3 CPU will have significant processing overhead compared to PCs and the other consoles. While the Xenon CPU looks very efficient and elegant, there is no denying that the CELL processor is going to chew through gaming data. And if the rumors that the CELL will be doing the Vertex Shading, PS3 may have geometry intensive games like we never imaged for this next gen--stuff that will blow current PCs away. CELL looks to handle AI, physics, and geometry like a champ--and those are important for game consoles. And this is if the CELL only does a hundred or two GFLOPs... no need to mention the marketing hype numbers

• nVidia NV50 / GF 7xxx series GPU... We all know the basic scoop on the R500 (Unified Shaders, SM 3.0+, enhanced memory interface) but we know nothing of nVidia's next big project. What we do know is that final silicone should be available at the end of 2005. This mean an extra 6-10 months of development compared to the R500. If CELL does all the vertex shading this may open up some transistor real-estate for more PS units. Having more, efficient "pixel shading only" PS units on the GPU, while CELL does VS, could be impressive to say the least.

• XDR Ram... 50+ GB/s of bandwidth for 256MB--and possibly more if Sony goes with 512MB and/or faster chips. This is ~80% increase in bandwidth over current top end GPUs which only have bandwidth issues at high resolutions (1600x1200) with AA/AF enabled. With a lot of bandwidth to spare we may be looking at features like high levels of AA, fp blending and HDRL, and other bandwidth intensive features (motion blur?) being standard features on the PS3, especially at 720p.

• Strong Gaming Brand... Playstation. Need I say more? 80M consoles sold within 5 years in each of the last 2 generations. Playstation is hip and the mainstream consumer trusts it and wants it. I remember when "Nintendo" was synonymous with video games, that can is no longer true. PS2's success makes it clear that Playstation and video games are tied at the hip, at least for the time being.

• Largest 3rd party support... The PS had a huge game library. And while the PS2 may be a pain to program for comparatively and tends to have the ugliest games on cross platform games, it still has done well. Why? Developer support is very broad and meets a huge range of gaming tastes. With top of the line HW next generation with more power than most developers will know what to do with, MS and Nintendo will need to come up with some significant reasons to get them to get off the winning bandwagon, especially when the future looks bright.

From a HW perspective I must say I am just floored that they are aiming to put this thing in a console. So I ask: Is there any weaknesses in Sony's PS3 strategy?

I honestly have a very good feeling about the PS3. I think Sony has done something Nintendo has had a problem with in the past: Swallowing their pride. The nVidia deal means good stuff for developers and gamers alike. Yet Sony has also assembled a cast of cutting edge HW and does not look to be cutting corners. From the rough specs it looks like the 3rd generation of 3D consoles are finally overcoming a lot of the hurdles creating 3D games and art in real-time and Sony looks to be on the forefront of this assault....

I would add to those bullets:
• 65 nm... Sony has some of the most advanced fabs in the world and Sony is getting them ready for 65 nm production [( http://www.eetimes.com/semi/news/OEG20030421S0071 ) and ( http://www.eetimes.com/semi/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=20900206 )], and since now we know that Sony is fabbing both CELL and the NVp GPU, "The custom GPU will be manufactured at Sony Group's Nagasaki Fab2 as well as OTSS (joint fabrication facility of Toshiba and Sony)." [ http://www.nvidia.com/object/IO_17342.html ], IMO both chips have a chance to be fabbed @ 65 nm .... this fact alone would probably give them a significant leg up on the competition .. [with regards to their competition, as of yet, the only part rumoured to be a possible candidate for 65 nm production, is Xbox2 's CPU which Microsoft will probably contract IBM to fab]

 

[Wunderchu]

in light of recent posts on CELL.. one more bullet:
• Hype... Microsoft and Nintendo know how to advertise their wares. Nintendo has been in the console business longer than any of the current 3 major players, and Microsoft has shown that they are willing and able to sustain a huge PR campaign.. but, as Megadrive1988 stated here: ( http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=18811&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=160 )

well now, the masters of hype join forces !

Sony and NVIDIA are arguably the masters of hype in their respective markets, and with them collaborating together...

...and, as Inane_Dork stated here: ( http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=20193 )

Great. We get to hear Emotion Engine hype all over again.
Second verse, same as the first.


(Though I do expect Cell to be much more important to computing than the EE ever was.)

CELL is looking to be much more revolutionary than the Emotion Engine ever was .. and we know how much hype the Emotion Engine got.. just thinking of the amount of hype CELL will receive.. ..And lets not forget that in the case of the PS2, Sony didn't really have a GPU to write home about.. but with the PS3, NVIDIA is already saying things like,

it will be the most feature-rich, the most powerful GPU that we’ve ever created actually

[ http://www.xbitlabs.com/articles/editorial/display/ces2005_2.html ] .. IMO , we will see hype on a scale never before seen

Heck, even supposedly neutral parties like EA are starting to hype the PS3 ( http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=20150 )

 

[rabidrabbit]

Even though nVidia are involved with PS3, the actual PS3 marketing and hype will be handled by Sony's marketing.
I don't think nVidia is in a position to advertise PS3, or even much their tech in it.
It's not as if they'd agreed on a marketing collaboration. Sony can handle it just well by themselves

 

[London Geezer]

I think people are somewhat underestimating the hype the EE received.
I remember very well the talks about it being the chip that could beat some 40 P2's at 200MHz all at the same time.. or something on that note...

Also, the GFLOP rating of 6.4 for the EE was at least 6 times that of any consumer CPU available at the time. If the BE in PS3 is capable of around 200-300GFlops, like most here are expecting it to be, that would se it at about 5 times what will be available on XBOX2, if we have to take the ~60-70 GFLOP rating for the XBOX2 CPU.

Also, PS2 had the whole "pushing 300 times the polygons of PS1" talk, plus the 48GB/s bandwidth between the GS and its own memory.

It was quite a lot of hype, and i don't see PS3 having that much more.

In the end, Sony only needs to go "PS3 is..." and millions of fans and haters will extrapolate whatever information they want to make themselves feel better about their future purchase so we can safely assume most of the hype will come from the fans, not from Sony. All they have to do is give out a few numbers and that's it. Free publicity.

 

[wco81]

What is Sony's PS3 strategy?

Convert the PS2 customer base to a new platform to push growth back up to the peak of PS2 sales while promoting strategic formats like Blu-Ray.

They have to show a demonstrably better new platform to get people to upgrade or want to upgrade.

Now obviously MS and Nintendo wants to poach some of this PS2 customer base and Sony wants to make sure that doesn't happen.

As for using the PS3 to promote other Sony products (besides Blu-Ray), I don't think they're counting on that. They would be happy if it happened but they're not telling financial analysts that we're going to sell X more TVs because of the PS3.

As for the hype about the Cell, I don't think that's intended for most of the Playstation customers. I think the hype comes from the fact that it would represent a significant achievement in computer architecture if they pull it off. Certainly Sony isn't expecting their console customers to pay attention to the ISSCC or the GDC. Or necessarily the E3. What percentage of the 80 million follow games and gaming technology on the web?

 

[Acert93]

Where consumers get their info is from magazines you buy at the checkout line in a Walmart.

And these magazines will take the info at events like CES, ISSCC, GDC, Spaceworld, E3 and the like and digest them, reinterpret them, put their own spin on it and put it out to the masses.

So while a large percentage of mainstream users wont be following these shows like us, they will get a lot of info on it. And even those who do not get gaming magazines will hear about it from their friends (as well as I am sure news sites like CNN will pick up some of the bigger stories). My cousin had one of his GamePro magazines (or was it another one? Not sure) over at our last LAN party and it had info on CELL. And sites like IGN and GameSpot are pretty popular, so my guess is that the CELL hype will hit mainstream consumers sooner than later. Kutaragi's own comments about comparing CELL to the difference between a movie and a novel is sure to pique some editors, especially of PS mags