Do you think it would be a mistake for MS and/or Sony to launch in 2012?

[kagemaru]

With all the rumors lately about the next Xbox launching in 2012, I was curious about the opinions here on the thought of MS or Sony launching a console late next year.

Do you think it would be a mistake, too early, or do you think the move is strategically right? I'm sure everyone here believes we're due for new hardware, with the current gen becoming long in the tooth, but do you think it's the right time for either company?

IMO I think it would be a huge mistake for either MS or Sony to launch next year.

Between the [likely] cheaper price of the 360 and Halo 4, it's likely to be a very successful holiday season for them. So I'm not sure why they would want to launch a new console to eat into those profits. On top of this, both Halo 4 and the 720 would be fighting for the spotlight with both launching the same period. Better to release Halo 4 on the 360 and later use the following games in the trilogy as a hook to entice buyers for Halo 5 and 6.

Regarding Sony, I understand that there isn't much (if any) talk about them releasing next year, but you never know. Still, I think it would be a mistake for them as well. This gen has cost them plenty financially and I'm sure they are in no rush to the grind all over again without recouping some of the losses at least. Not to mention, with the PSV launching late this year/early next year, I would think they want to concentrate on that platform and build a userbase there before worrying about the PS4.

So what are your thoughts?

 

[hoho]

Launching at 45nm would be rather stupid idea in my oppinion and 32/28nm is out of question before 2013.

 

[kagemaru]

lol I just realized that I selected no accidentally to my own poll when I obviously think "yes" it would be a mistake. Reading fail right there on my part. That's what I get for posting at work =p

 

[BRiT]

It looks like a Mod Staff fixed it up for you.

As for the topic, I would like for next-gen to be out next year but the timing in regards to the process technology is just wrong for a 2012 launch. It might even be too early for a 2013 launch too.

 

[dlm]

I really couldn't care less about an incremental boost to graphical fidelity. Especialyl if it comes at the expense of compatibility with my existing game library.

Sony has been riding a very positive wave with the last couple rounds of price cuts, Kinect is still moving significant hardware for MS, and I mean sheesh, just look at the quality of the games we've seen in the last month, with more coming over the next few...

This feels like peak time for me in terms of game development. They should be thinking about the future, but it doesn't seem like 2012 is the time to pull the trigger. I think they could easily squeeze 2 more years out of these boxes.


It's a testament to the quality of work that developers are doing that we've seen so much continuous improvement in what the've been cranking out of these machines even 6 years later.

 

[TheChefO]

32nm AMD chips have been shipping since June.

Why is it out of the question that MS/Sony could utilize the process, a year later?

 

[Acert93]

Until HP 28nm is available in volume (TSMC) -- or another better source at a fair price -- anything "next gen" will not be significantly "next gen."

I am sure they are reading the tea leaves that would be semiconductor manufacturing not named Intel, but it seems like there are some major techniques on the horizon that could make waiting a big win in terms of technicals (FINFETS on TSMC 20nm, Silicon Interposers, Stacked Memory, etc) but the question is how long, how long for volume, and what impact will it have? I don't think a 15-20% difference in raw performance is going to be a major issue next gen (with dynamic resolutions, AA, and the ability to scale back at IQ levels not readily visible) so unless we are talking about one company bailing on the performance bandwagon and the other going for a home run there won't be much wiggle room for mistakes ala the PS3. No one has the good will to get away with being late, expensive ($600!), and over hyped platform and with half baked software that fails to prove the hype.

 

[Acert93]

32nm AMD chips have been shipping since June.

Why is it out of the question that MS/Sony could utilize the process, a year later?

But where would MS contract 32nm product?

You can scratch Intel from your list. Intel has had 32nm volume since 2009 and Intel's 22nm chips have been shipping since Q4 2011, but that doesn't mean they are available at the targets a console maker needs to make. Intel surely isn't going to shift volume from a high margin product to a commodity one.

GF? They are making chips with pretty solid margins, not a commodity chip like a console. I wouldn't say this is impossible but there would have to be some compelling reason to think it is likely. TSMC? They scrapped their 32nm. TSMC has issued 28nm design kits earlier this year but that predates volume production by a year and 28nm products are still not in the wild--it may also be why new GPUs were not released this year. Does MS want to marry itself to a process that may not be able to deliver in 2012? There are big gaps between when companies show a working process, get out limited volumes, and ship in volume (e.g. Intel had a 45MB SRAM on 22nm in 2009 but that is a 2011-2012 volume process). TSMC has been a disaster for a while.

It would be a major win if MS could coordinate new software in 2012 AND a 28nm console because it means the best Sony could hope for in 2013 is 28nm as well.

So I see why it would be so compelling to want to make that leap. But software wise MS has spent the last 7 years killing off most of their internal development, there isn't a ton of compelling content on the PC that isn't working on the current consoles, and it seems unless MS has been violating my signature (there are no MS rumors, only MS leaks -- lets hope they have some good misdirection and are leaking some false crap for once as well) it doesn't look like the hardware is really fleshed out yet.

RE: AMD had working Xenos chips in Nov 2004. So while the dev kits were pretty much Macs until the Summer of 2005 there was a complete working block diagram of the console on the net and working silicon. So unless that chip AMD showed off (GPU and stacked memory on a silicon interposer) was the next Xbox it doesn't seem likely.

 

[TheChefO]

If one launches 2012 (MS or Sony) the other will have to follow suit within a year.

This limits the process technology to within a process node limiting the performance difference to roughly 50%.

It could be enough to sway a chunk of buyers, but building a bigger set of chips will be more expensive to produce through the life of the console and will be giving up a year of sales.

Positives and negatives either way.

 

[TheChefO]

But where would MS contract 32nm product?

AMD is making/designing the GPU, I'm not sure about the cpu, but IBM and AMD have had a good working relationship on chip technology for the past decade. Even if MS/Sony has to pay a bit of a premium initially for small volume at launch on GF, it would be worth it to hit the valuable Holiday sales.

Software wise I'd expect mostly hi-res pc ports with a couple of titles that really push the xb720 to show the potential.

 

[manux]

If stars align and 28nm is good for console mass production fall 2012 it would be pretty good for MS launching next gen. MS could play the game where they sell xbox360 as the cheap alternative and another console on superhighend. MS should be able to leverage same assets on both consoles(the usual NHL, FIFA whatnots) + some next gen exclusives on new console. This could also be the time MS starts to transform consoles towards software platform in preparation to making console games run also on pc's... Why not practice on two consoles that are at the market at the same time.

For Sony I think it would be too early which might exactly be the reason MS jumps the gun. MS has the money and position(cheap to manufacture xbox360) to start early and give sony real trouble(also financial trouble) if they have to follow.

Is this a lie? http://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?action=detail&newsid=6181

The number of customer 28nm production tape outs has more than doubled as compared with that of 40nm. At 28nm, there are currently more than 80 customer product tape-outs. The TSMC 28nm process has surpassed the previous generation’s production ramps and product yield at the same point in time due to closer and earlier collaboration with customers

It looks like 28nm is pretty good already and we still have almost a year to go before end of 2012.

 

[manux]

For next gen I'm really curious about the kinect/move controllers. Will MS bring out a new version of kinect with each console sold or is old kinect going to be used? Or do we perhaps see new version of kinect as addon few years after the launch?

Move should be precise enough to not need new version for ps4. This then begs the question will sony bring additional better camera (a la kinect) or are they happy customers reusing existing move controllers + camera.

I suppose if new version of kinect(double resolution + double fps perhaps?) is standard then that will have significant effect on console BOM which might affect the other parts negatively. I'm assuming the launch price would be less than 500 bucks for the console without additional controller(s) and games.

 

[-tkf-]

Ehmm didn´t Sony launch with a console that was die-shrinked as soon as possible?
Why not do the same again?

We also have to remember that the target for PS4 and Loop is 1080p and nothing else. Doesn´t that make the demands for the GPU slightly different and less taxing?

 

[function]

We also have to remember that the target for PS4 and Loop is 1080p and nothing else.

Lets hope not eh?

I'd much rather they mandate trilinear + aniso, or a cap on input latency, or triple buffering, or subsample based AA, or nothing at all than resolution.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Is this a lie? http://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?action=detail&newsid=6181


It looks like 28nm is pretty good already and we still have almost a year to go before end of 2012.

Whoa!!

So we may get our next gen boxes in 2012 afterall

 

[Acert93]

We also have to remember that the target for PS4 and Loop is 1080p and nothing else. Doesn´t that make the demands for the GPU slightly different and less taxing?

They will output 1080p, but I am willing to bet a crow-eating if in the first year we don't see a good handful of games with lower resolution upscaled or adaptive resolution for performance reasons.

Oh, and neither company yas does "1080p and nothing else." That would surely be a huge mistake as the legitimate HD market is full of non-1080p hardware. I still walk into big box stores and see non-1080p sets.

 

[function]

There are some nice Samsung 1024 x 768 plasma "HD Ready" tvs. They produce nicer images than cheap 1080p LCDs.

 

[Arwin]

Personally, based on rumors about development starting this year, first next-gen versions of Unreal Engine being discussed, and a next-gen title should take at the very least 2 years of development, probably 3, I would say that we're still at least 2 years out, so I would be quite surprised if we get something next year. If we do get something that soon, it would only be in reaction to the Wii U, but even there I feel it would be safe to have the Wii U on the market for one year. More important would be to release at a good price-point versus the Wii U, which the inclusion of the tablet may well help with.

So the only reason Microsoft would go for it would be because Sony couldn't follow, as that year they'd still be way too busy with Vita. Microsoft is comfortable in the US right now, and the other regions show less indication of being ready to move to the next-gen consoles imho. On the other hand, I do think that some publishers are very ready to move on and revitalise their franchise sales with next-gen versions.

But I don't know if the consumer market is ready for it. But on the other hand, I'm fairly sure they'll be ready for sure within two years. And here of course I'm talking about the group of gamers that buy the first 15 million.

 

[TheChefO]

But I don't know if the consumer market is ready for it.

I think you're right.

The mass is probably not ready for it. But MS/Sony have yet to really tap into that market anyway as they have yet to hit impulse buying pricepoints (~$100).

Once ps4/xb720 due come out, the existing boxes will be ready to start dipping into these pricepoints.

This would allow for the hardcore high-end audience to be satisfied with the premier gaming experience they crave, and the mass/casual audience to buy into the expanding market of the ever more affordable consoles with family friendly motion controls.

Thereby the market as a whole will be fully addressed.

By the time the new consoles are impulse-buy-affordable again, we will either have new consoles ready (ps5/xb1080?) or streaming/cloud gaming will be ready.

Such is the lifespan of the console.

I'd still expect quite a few years of software support for ps3/xb360 after the nextgen systems are launched though.

This gen machines will still be selling well when heading into these new affordable price ranges and they will still be net profitable for Sony/MS.

Consider how many years ps2 was still outselling xb360/ps3 ...

Publishers/Developers will not ignore this market and in fact we may see some of the most diverse/interesting games in the next few years due to the expanding market.

 

[Phil]

I personally hope one of the hardware makers (preferably Sony, because that's what I'll be getting) has the balls to dictate a mandatory 1080p/60 rule...