Sony: 2M PS3s shipped
- Thread starter Hale
- Start date
Hahah good one...I can see the backlash now...
(HYPOTHETICAL)
Sony PR:
'We are pleased to announce that we promise to launch in Spring of 06 WORLDWIDE'
then....
'Although we pushed back our WORLDWIDE launch in Spring of 06, we are very excited to announce that we promise to launch WORLDWIDE in Fall of 06 with 6 millions consoles!'
following...
'We regret to inform Europe that we can't meet our WORLDWIDE launch in Fall of 06, but we really, really promise this time to launch in US and Japan in Fall 06 with 4 million consoles, and we definitely promise to launch in Europe in March of 07'
leading to...
'We are ecstatic to let you know that even though we missed our 4 million consoles in 06, we have shipped 2 million consoles in 06, but we still really, really promise we will ship 6 million consoles come March and launch in Europe simultaneously, with WORLDWIDE soon to follow.'
---------
I think you get my point which is 2 fold. First, companies NEVER EVER promise anything. 2nd, Sony had been woefully incorrect with the information they have been providing us regarding launch, system sales, and shipments.
inefficient
Veteran
I actually got to try remote play the other week. I don't own a PSP by my friend has one and brought it over.
My first impression was that the wireless setup part was unnecessarly complicated. You should just be able to plug it in via the USB cable and sync up the configuration settings so that you can get remote play started immediately. Instead you have to punch in ids and wep keys etc in both devices.
For some reason, when you transfer games into your PSP from the PS Store it asks you to connect it via a USB cable anyway. But still it forces you to setup wireless remote play before you can copy games on to it.
Remote play itself was pretty cool. Once it is all setup if you select remote play you basically take control over the XMB interface on the PS3. You see all the options like Music, Photos, Videos etc. And you can access that media exactly like you access it on the PS3 and it gets transfered on the fly. So you can browse images, listen to music, or watch video.
The video gets compressed to a fairly low bit rate it seems. So its not goregeous but it's watchable. It looks only a bit better than something you would stream over the web to your PC from something like YouTube.
It was all pretty slick. But in it's current implementation I can't imagine any situation where I would actually want to use it. Why would I stream music to my PSP while I am at home? Now if you could do the same thing over the internet and access media on the PS3 from any wifi hotspot then it would be very cool. But I can see all sorts of security issues with allowing your PS3 to be open for access to the internet. So I am not sure I would even want it turned on unless I was sure it was secure.
http://www.vgcharts.org/news.php?id=58
This is interesting in it's the first analyst I've seen to note actual slow North American PS3 sales causing them to think Sony will miss their ship targets.
At some point the bottleneck isn't shipments but sales..
This is interesting in it's the first analyst I've seen to note actual slow North American PS3 sales causing them to think Sony will miss their ship targets.
At some point the bottleneck isn't shipments but sales..
inefficient
Veteran
See post #65.
And it does not say anything about "slow sales". It says "poor sales over the holiday season" then cites the supply problems and shortages.
If the bottleneck really is sales and not t shipments it is not indicated in that article.
The analyst seems to have just been expecting higher initial volumes for 2006 because that is what Sony told the press originally.
As I have said in the past, you need to go look at the size of the PS2/GCN/Xbox generation and look at the increase from the N64/PS1/SS generation. i.e. Nowhere near a 100% increase in customers.
1st 3D Generation
N64: 33M
PS1: 102M
SS: 9M
Total: 144M units
2nd 3D Generation
NGC: 21M
PS2: 111M
Xbox: 24M
Total: 156M units
Change: +8%
And you expect a 100% increase within 5 years? Your are absolutely ignoring the historically high price of the PS3 and Xbox 360 (and the inevitable impact on how long it takes to get down to levels where those in poor countries can afford them, i.e. much longer than last gen) as well as the slow start things are at this time around. I could give a laundry list of reasons why the market isn't going to grow by 156M units by 2011 to over 300M units worldwide, but I think it is painfully obvious that isn't going to happen.
You forgot the Dreamcast
Nah, I didn't include it because it killed off the SS but did not continue into the "next gen" proper. I think it shipped in Japan in November 1998. The N64 was launched in 1996 and the Xbox1 in 2001. It was a lame duck that straddled 2 generations. I guess if you consider the PS/SS launch dates in 1995 and the PS2 in 2000 it leans slightly toward the PS2/GCN/Xbox generation, but the short lifecycle and the fact the major "gen start" (e.g. 2001 was the first big, full year for the PS2/Xbox/GCN gen, 1996 for the one before that, 2006 this time around) it pretty squarely sits in the middle.
But I tried to be fair and didn't include it on either side, just let it be... where it should be
English is my second language only, and I've been quite tired when I wrote that. Happy?
I think you may be right in that I may be overestimating the growth of the sector, but there are a few flaws in your arguments as well.
First, the historically high price for now is irrelevant, because you have to count from the first launch of the PS2 in Japan and take it from there. Note that in Japan the launch price of the PS3 is actually quite close to the launch price of the PS2. Same in Europe, so the only big difference is in the U.S., which suffers from a very weak dollar, where the dollar was very strong when the PS2 launched.
But more important is the timeframe in which the consoles have been sold. You should look at yearly sales of consoles and games, not at the total numbers of each generation.
Saturn and Playstation launch dates are 1994 if you're factoring in Japan. And the US Dreamcast launch was *late* 1999, and was very much an active platform in 2001... Also the Dreamcast didn't kill off the Saturn in Japan either, the Saturn was still kicking pretty well in Japan (dead in North America however), in fact the Saturn was Sega's most successful platform in Japan. You gonna consider the PS2 in between as well? Or consider the 360 an "in between platform?"
There isn't a real reason to include the DC in "this" list. The DC launched well ahead of the PS2 - and lightyears ahead of the Xbox.
One thing I'll add against "home" console growth is the shift to handhelds over home machines. This is evident in both hardware sales and software sales - and in the titles moving to the handheld market.
I do believe this gen is likely to grow (though doubling is laughable IMO) thanks to the Wii. Non-gamers will come to the machine. Additionally, the numbers above measure discrete consoles sold, correct? I imagine this gen is going to be the one where owning more than one machine becomes "the norm" to gamers, the total number of machines sold may be something of a false measurement - particularly when the Wii is so cheap compared to a new machine, and offers something genuinely new compared to the 360/PS3.
Cheers
One thing I'll add against "home" console growth is the shift to handhelds over home machines. This is evident in both hardware sales and software sales - and in the titles moving to the handheld market.
I do believe this gen is likely to grow (though doubling is laughable IMO) thanks to the Wii. Non-gamers will come to the machine. Additionally, the numbers above measure discrete consoles sold, correct? I imagine this gen is going to be the one where owning more than one machine becomes "the norm" to gamers, the total number of machines sold may be something of a false measurement - particularly when the Wii is so cheap compared to a new machine, and offers something genuinely new compared to the 360/PS3.
Cheers
I am an American, what do you expect? The world revolves around us
From how we "got" the consoles:1995 PS1/SS
=> 1 year
1996 N64
=> 3 year
1999 DC
=> 1 year
2000 PS2
=> 1 year
2001 GCN/Xbox
=> 4 year
2005 Xbox 360
=> 1 year
2006 PS3/Wii
When you start adding in the Japanese numbers, especially PS and SS, I guess it does begin to sku it even more, as you noted, and does make it hazier.
It is a successor of the 5 year old PS1 and, with the benefit of looking back, was the beginning of the 2nd 3D generation and has remained the baseline. The DC didn't quite live up to that.
No, for all the opposite reasons given on the DC. Not only is the gap larger but it is also clearly a next generation device matching the competition in memory and general performance envelope.
I can see where you are coming from, as the DC is 3 years from the N64 and 4 years from the PS1 but only 1 year from the PS2 and 2 years from the Xbox1 and GCN. Adding in the Japanese numbers does, as you mentioned, show the DC much closer to the 2nd 3D gen.
But looking at the hardware and games it definately did not live up to the PS2/Xbox/GCN baseline (whereas I think it is pretty obvious that the Xbox 360 does compared to what the 3rd 3D gen has).
Maybe a better label for DC: Tried to jump start a new generation and failed and left the market.
What makes me view it as "straddling" is the fact its short life cycle, at least in the US, have its life split between the two. They ended production in January 2001. Lifecycle of 1999-2001. (Edit: 1998 if checking Japan--only 2 years after the N64 in Japan). It was dead in the market before the GCN and Xbox1 even shipped.
I guess I see it as shipping a couple years after the N64, but a couple years before the GCN/Xbox1, and it died before the later even got to market. And when comparing consoles, the PS/SS/N64 share a lot of traits, and the PS2/Xbox/GCN share quite a few, clearly "generations". The DC is closer to the later, but also is lacking pretty much across the board.
But maybe you are right.
Either way, adding in their 10M sales would be 15% growth in this last generation.
Still a HUGE gap from 100% growth.
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
Well ofcourse a 100% growth in 5 years is never ever gonna happan. For that to happen the amount of gamers has to more than double (because some will live in the same house) wich ofcouse isnt going to happen because we wont suddenly have 100million people that didnt game before suddenly start gaming.
Not saying that I'm expecting a 100% increase, but I'd like to point out that the PS1 was a very active platform for a long time into the PS2's life - as PS2 is proving to be by itsself even after PS3 has launched. I'd expect quite a bit of more sales from the PS2 platform for the next 1 or 2 years. If you add the Dreamcast to the lot, perhaps 200 million might still be a possibility. Not anywhere near a 100% increase though.
I am not argueing there won't be growth. 200M would be ~ 33% growth which would be impressive. One could argue Wii and Sony's/MS's focus on broadening the market and emphasis on more media-centric services could do that. The flip side is the higher entry point and the fact we won't have a clear #1 for a year or two which, imo, stifles some momentum. This and the growing importance of handhelds could have some unforseen impact. I expect growth, and would be very, very impressed with 200M units but not very surprised. I would be utterly shocked, amazed, and nonplused at 230M. Then again I wouldn't be surprised a lick if it topped out at 170M.
I don't claim to be an analyst, just an armchair quarterback
Sony is currently airlifting 100,000 PS3's per week to USA, according to this:
http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...TRUKOC_0_US-VIDEOGAMES-PS3.xml&archived=False
Believe it or not but IMO its good news, once good software starts coming up, the systems will be moved and fast.
http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...TRUKOC_0_US-VIDEOGAMES-PS3.xml&archived=False
Believe it or not but IMO its good news, once good software starts coming up, the systems will be moved and fast.
Need to drop in price before software alone will make it move fast.
Perhaps, but exclusive titles will be the ones that move hardware even with the PS3 price. The PS3 lacks good software at the moment which is slowing it down, but by EU release there should be some good games out already. Don't think the demand for PS3 has died down or anything, Sony is simply bringing consoles to the market with rapid speed. Gona be interesting to see if the launch of VF5 will boost PS3 sales or not.
"Believe it or not but IMO its good news, once good software starts coming up, the systems will be moved and fast."
Price is simply to high for it to ever move fast regardless of titles out, Plus the vast majority of all games now are multi platform, Sony's big guns FF and MGS may not be out till 2008 and they will have to contend with Halo3 before that.
Anyway you slice it I just don't see the PS3 catching up to the 360 or the WII anytime soon.
Price is simply to high for it to ever move fast regardless of titles out, Plus the vast majority of all games now are multi platform, Sony's big guns FF and MGS may not be out till 2008 and they will have to contend with Halo3 before that.
Anyway you slice it I just don't see the PS3 catching up to the 360 or the WII anytime soon.
