Sony: 2M PS3s shipped
- Thread starter Hale
- Start date
Not sure I understand the over optimistic tone, Sony has revised numbers several times now pretty much rendering them useless, the boy who cried wolf syndrome for Sony.
There are also tons of PS3's sitting on store shelves which means even though they had to revise shipped numbers to lower expectations that they are currently still over saturating the market even shipping lower than expected numbers.
Not sure where people are getting the idea of the PS3 catching up with the 360 or even the WII at this point given it's current price point and sales.
As it stands Sony have not met their original shipping goals and even now those failed shipping goals are more than the market wants.
There are also tons of PS3's sitting on store shelves which means even though they had to revise shipped numbers to lower expectations that they are currently still over saturating the market even shipping lower than expected numbers.
Not sure where people are getting the idea of the PS3 catching up with the 360 or even the WII at this point given it's current price point and sales.
As it stands Sony have not met their original shipping goals and even now those failed shipping goals are more than the market wants.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Well, newsflash, PS3 is not going to be as successful as PS2. Market conditions have made that abundantly clear for some time. These analysts thinking that it would be, are exactly what I meant by 'out to lunch'!
As for pricedrop, currently the range is $500-600, so I did factor in a $100 pricedrop.
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Several times? Could you cite them? IIRC what they said was 6 million shipment at the end of March, while Microsoft certainly updated their estimates several times.
Well, newsflash, the outlook of the last month is what changed their estimates to 25 million within the next 2.5 years no where near the rate the PS2 had that accumulated into 50 million sales within 3 years.
The $400-600 figure was interpreted by me as inclusive of the $427.00 in japan for the 20gb, so my bad. However, I think we will see a larger price drop to whatever is the 360 price range. Sony will be literally forced to eat more losses to compete with the momentum the 360 and Wii has now.
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Why, It's been cited so many times here it has become almost common knowledge. While the "6 million by March" figure has been static the "x million by the end of 2006" has changed on numerous occasions. It was at one time "4 mil by 2006" then "2mil by 2006" then "1 million in the pipeline". Now we got "2 mil by Jan 16th".
"First it's been 4 million in 2006, then 2 million, and then we ended up with about 1.2-1.5 million at most. That's two times they've failed to hold onto their promises."
Also what about the original estimate of 400,000 for U.S launch while they only did roughly 196,000? They never did fess up to that at all. They also only shipped 80,000 for the japanese launch which undercut their original estimate.
At this point Sony's estimates are useless cause they are either flat out wrong or they re adjust them ever couple of weeks to match reality.
The fact they did not ship what they originally thought and their are a number of units sitting on shelves is bad news.
Also what about the original estimate of 400,000 for U.S launch while they only did roughly 196,000? They never did fess up to that at all. They also only shipped 80,000 for the japanese launch which undercut their original estimate.
At this point Sony's estimates are useless cause they are either flat out wrong or they re adjust them ever couple of weeks to match reality.
The fact they did not ship what they originally thought and their are a number of units sitting on shelves is bad news.
I think it is not unreasonably to assume that the console market will double in size over the next 5 years. In that case, the PS3 will equal the PS2 in absolute numbers even if it gained only half of the marketshare of the PS2 in the last generation - which, by the way, I consider fairly unlikely. Remember that Nintendo didn't lose all it advantage in just one generation, but two.
So in my opinion, it would be wiser to assume that the PS3 will find its way to 100.000.000 million homes over the next six years, at a minimum. The question is whether it will gain 200.000.000 million over the next six years, or whether those 100.000.000 additional sales will be taken up by Nintendo and/or Microsoft - or, obviously, anything inbetween.
So in my opinion, it would be wiser to assume that the PS3 will find its way to 100.000.000 million homes over the next six years, at a minimum. The question is whether it will gain 200.000.000 million over the next six years, or whether those 100.000.000 additional sales will be taken up by Nintendo and/or Microsoft - or, obviously, anything inbetween.
I don't see it as "several times". 4 million to 2 million in 2006. But 2 million is their estimate, and its realization was 2 weeks late which is not an update to their estimate.
scooby_dooby
Legend
What don't you see? Google will provide you with literally dozen of news articles related to estimate changes.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060906-7672.html
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117955893.html?categoryid=1009&cs=1
http://news.com.com/2110-1043_3-6143631.html
http://www.joystiq.com/2006/05/08/e3-ps3-launch-details/
I don't think so at all. PS2 was incredibly dominant, and even then, I question whether it actually made it into 100,000,000 homes.
I don't see how it will double. If it did it would be historic as it has never doubled in that timeframe.
74m total consoles (nes generation 1985-1989)
84m total consoles (snes generation 1989-2004)
144m total consoles (playstation generation 1994-2000)
167m total consoles (playstation2 generation 2000-2006)
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=8498&page=2
If the console market does drastically increase in size this gen I think it will be mostly due to Wii sales than anything MS or Sony are doing.
Sony will be lucky to sell 50million this gen at their current rate unless they do something drastic and soon
So you don't think that the console market will double over the next five years then?
The first and 4th articles are about the worldwide launch, not about "numbers" swanlee was talking about in his post which I replied to. The 2nd and 3rd ones are both about the 4 mil -> 2 mil change and the same thing. You should read what you quote more carefully.
This is over reacting...at the current rate they are out selling MS and the demand will change with more games and price drops...the PS3 is not going to be at 499&599 forever.
They failed to meet their launch figures as well.
And they delayed launch globally.
And they double delayed Europe.
I have to agree. The evidence is hard to miss. You have to try to be ignorant to not see it.
Agree, but I think it is exactly for this reason that Sony will continue to announce their latest ship numbers vis-a-vis their 6 mil target by March. If they hit it, people who are skeptical will be convinced eventually. If they continue to miss it, they will lose even more credibility.
This is not uncommon (Check out the shipped number MS announced and the NPD numbers, there is usually a large gap between the 2 for many reasons).
I for one am more interested in software news, OS updates, better info about PS3 capability (e.g., I still have not tried Remote Play because I thought it's not available yet), and finally sales through numbers across a few months.
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