Everything else aside, Swanlee do you doubt that the PS3 will still be for sale in 2013? That's just six years for a console that will probably be on sale for near ten. PS3 in 2013 will be no more or less relevent (arbitrarly) than PS2 is relevent in 2007.
Sony: 2M PS3s shipped
- Thread starter Hale
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Everything else aside, Swanlee do you doubt that the PS3 will still be for sale in 2013? That's just six years for a console that will probably be on sale for near ten. PS3 in 2013 will be no more or less relevent (arbitrarly) than PS2 is relevent in 2007.
Well, if you don't trust official ship numbers then how do you trust NPD? I doubt you'll see NPD tout their numbers as nothing else but trending data. At least, MS, Sony and Nintendo have to file their quarterly reports with the SEC and are required to be truthful. Comparing NPD numbers with official numbers is the only way we have come to form some level of trust with NPD.
*I should know?* You're funny. This is bullship. The only country where there has been talk of only releasing the 60mb version is the U.K. But at the same time it was already announced that Sony will determine for each individual country which version has the most demand. Countries in the Mediteranean area, like Italy, would for example get a majority of 20Gb versions.
This was before the HDMI port was announced for the 20Gb version, so now all bets are definitely off.
It's going to be interesting to see if Europe is getting a BluRay disc along with the PS3 (I'm assuming yes). I don't think you need to count in one game, because you can already download quite a few good things for free - unless of course retailers will oblige you to purchase a game.
Most importantly though, it should be more than clear to anyone in Europe that we won't only get 60GB versions if those are then going to be lying around on the shelf for months.
EDIT: but initially, the U.K. Ireland at least look likely to get the 60GB only in the first few months.
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=71929
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That a misprint.
Tokyo, January 16, 2007 – Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. (SCEI) today announced that
cumulative shipment of its PLAYSTATION®3 (PS3™) computer entertainment system
reached 1 million units in Japan as of today, January 16th, 2007. Compared to its predecessor
PlayStation® platforms, PS3 is the fastest to reach cumulative shipment of 2 million units
worldwide. This achievement comes in only 2 months from its launch in November 2006 in
Japan and North America. PS3 platform continues to expand rapidly along with its exciting
lineup of packaged software titles as well as downloadable content and services delivered
through the network.
http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/pdf/070116e.pdf
I guess the world only consist of japan and the US. I think Sony considers the other 90% of the human population to be citizens of the moon.
yeah sorry looks like it was a misprint,
now NPD on the other hand (whilst the numbers arent 100% accurate) since their business is reporting sales trends etc, to get caught lying is far far worse + would greatly damage the company, whilst there is scope for corruption of course (no system is infalliable) i trust NPD to give a more accurate picture of how the consoles are doing relative to each other. at the moment + extrapolating for the next year, the xbox360 is doing the best.
(cause its secret)
hmmm well theres a lot more damaging secrets that get leaked all the time
well sony ms nintendo usually put so much spin on the numbers, eg sold = in fact shipped, launch = including a few weeks/month after launch etc. about the only thing u can actually trust is the actual numbers are gonna be worse. its like politicians, ppl expect them to not present all the facts so when they get caught doing 'truthiness' its usually not to much of a deal.
now NPD on the other hand (whilst the numbers arent 100% accurate) since their business is reporting sales trends etc, to get caught lying is far far worse + would greatly damage the company, whilst there is scope for corruption of course (no system is infalliable) i trust NPD to give a more accurate picture of how the consoles are doing relative to each other. at the moment + extrapolating for the next year, the xbox360 is doing the best.
should be easy to find the number of xbox1s sold then, so why aint this info available
(cause its secret)
hmmm well theres a lot more damaging secrets that get leaked all the time
MS has given an exact definition of the term "ship" in relation to their use of the word.
There is no way to catch NPD in a lie, unless all the product owners of a NPD report got together and collectively divulge their sales numbers to determine NPD reliability. Also, there is no competing tracking company who reports are regularly available to even determine reliability. NPD only seem reliable because they seem to jibe with MS, Sony and Nintendo's official numbers. Take away all your trust from the official numbers and you are just taking NPD word at face value.
Thats MS, but I can look at a Sony quarterly report and tell how many units of any game hardware was annually shipped all the way back to 94. MS reports numbers only in press releases or interviews, but they are still bound by US laws and can't legally mislead investors or potential investors.
Some people here are a bit confused on the meaning of "entry point".
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
They'll sell that many through roughly 6 years on the market. It's quite realistic. Personally, I'm one of those guys who wouldn't pay more than $299 for the 60GB PS3. Nevertheless, over time Sony will continue to pump out a million units a month and drop the price accordingly to sell them.
Sony's costs have been exagerated with the PS3. Long term their 60GB model costs are probably no more than $75 more than an X360 Premium build cost. They'll be able to market BR better when there are more HDTVs ad BR discs out there too.
They'll beat MS mainly because of Japan, where they'll sell 20 million units.
MS made great strides this generation. A 42/33/25 split is a great accomplishment for MS and Nintendo coming from a 70/15/15 split, but Sony will still outsell everyone IMO. There's too much mindshare with the PS brand, they have the most future proof machine with BR added in, and they still have some pretty key exclusives like GT, MGS, and FF.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
On the January numbers:
I think that Wii can do about 800k, PS3 about 450k, and X360 about 250k.
In February I'm thinking more like Wii 500k, PS3 350k, X360 250k, but I wouldn't stake my reputation on it.
I think that Wii can do about 800k, PS3 about 450k, and X360 about 250k.
In February I'm thinking more like Wii 500k, PS3 350k, X360 250k, but I wouldn't stake my reputation on it.
"They'll beat MS mainly because of Japan, where they'll sell 20 million units."
I think it's just way to soon to hand Sony the prize this gen. Everything right now points to a bad launch for the PS3, units sitting on shelves and a severe backlash towards Sony and the price of the PS3.
It's simply going to take them a lot longer to get to a reasonable price and by then they could find themselves 20 million + units behind either the 360 or the WII.
With the WII's price and sales already I would not count it out as the dominant console for Japan while the 360 takes NA and Europe because of price and the European delay.
The PS3 could end up 2nd in Japan and 3rd everywhere else.
There is nothing pointing to an all of a sudden PS3 buying frenzy anytime soon as MGS and FF are not going to be out till 2008 and there is no major price drop in sight for the PS3, by then it will be to late.
The 360 already has 10 million units shipped\sold that is a head start that the sluggish PS3 sales can't over come anytime soon.
I think it's just way to soon to hand Sony the prize this gen. Everything right now points to a bad launch for the PS3, units sitting on shelves and a severe backlash towards Sony and the price of the PS3.
It's simply going to take them a lot longer to get to a reasonable price and by then they could find themselves 20 million + units behind either the 360 or the WII.
With the WII's price and sales already I would not count it out as the dominant console for Japan while the 360 takes NA and Europe because of price and the European delay.
The PS3 could end up 2nd in Japan and 3rd everywhere else.
There is nothing pointing to an all of a sudden PS3 buying frenzy anytime soon as MGS and FF are not going to be out till 2008 and there is no major price drop in sight for the PS3, by then it will be to late.
The 360 already has 10 million units shipped\sold that is a head start that the sluggish PS3 sales can't over come anytime soon.
Well X360 had a bad launch and their doin alright. For PS3 getting to a reasonable price well...thats a matter of getting better at manufactoring and cost reducing the peices of the unit. And it looks highly that Sony is getting at .65NM this year.
IMO..PS3 will do way better than the X360 in Japan and Europe. In the USA it will compete for share. The Wii is the X factor it could overtake all markets....
And there has'nt been any announcement of MGS and FF games so that is straight exagrated speculation on your part.
So far PS3 has done better than X360 for the same months released...we'll see how it unfolds...
Launching on Nov 2005 with 1.5 mil, a year ahead of your competitors in all three major region, is different than launching in Nov 2006 in two region with 1.5 mil a year behind a competitor and week ahead of another. Furthermore, launching and having the next gen market all to yourself for a year is different than launching with a limited supply against two competitors who have ample supply.
That was the going perception but the going perception in the past was that the PS3 would dominate japan. Reality shows us a different picture, so dominating sales in Europe aren't assured.
Thats only post holiday production and in no way indicative of demand.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Listen, don't underestimate Sony. Sooner or later the 60GB PS3 is going to be $299 and it will do very well at that price. Wii will do well, but last generation's gamers aren't going to pass on GTA, GT, MGS, FF, etc... just to use a funky controller. Contrary to all the stories that say otherwise, many gamers want some hot ass graphics for their next generation gaming and MS and Sony will be delivering that and will more or less split the "gamers" market outside of Japan. Wii will get the Nintendo demographic + some new converts and a fair number of second console buyers IMO.
Agreed - Sony platforms Have historically sold well at the <$300 pricepoint and very well at the <$200 pricepoint. However, they have not historically been on an equal playing field with their competition, much less behind. While I agree there will still be a surge upon hitting the $300 and $200 pricepoints from the loyal fans that are holding out specifically for ps3, I don't think it will resemble the historic ps1/2 sales though. Bigest reason, games. While I think the ps3 will continue to get multiplatform titles, I don't think they will see (unpaid) exclusives on their platform this gen. This means for the majority of games available this gen, people will be choosing based on price. There will come a time when both 360 and ps3 will be below $200 but by that time (2009-2010) I think the platform percentages will already be decided.
Of course this does not take 1st party titles into account but in the grand scheme of things those titles are a drop in the bucket.
Also of interest, Japanese games. I theorized last summer that Wii may steal Japan from Sony. Japanese games for the most part have not historically been graphically demanding in the ps1/2 generations. This in combination with the huge price disparity between ps3 and wii along with wii's "innovative" control scheme was a possible recipe for disaster for Sony. It didn't help that Nintendo was gaining a lot of momentum after e3 2006 which continued on into Christams sales. The result is Wii is outselling ps3 in Japan by more than 3 to 1 with no signs of this trend breaking anytime soon. This will result in Wii being the desired platform for nitch J-dev games. For J-dev's looking to expand their portfolio and sell outside of their traditional markets they may chose to port these titles to ps3/360 or in some cases dev straight to a 360/ps3 but I think that will be the minority.
Europe is still a wildcard for Sony and it would be great to have some meaningful sales numbers for Wii and 360 in that region to estimate sales trends but it doesn't look like we can expect that anythime soon. It may end up being a different platform dominating all three major regions. Sony-EU / MS-US / N-Japan
I'm lowering my target percentage on Sony from 33% to 28%.
thatdude90210
Regular
Pfff, last summer... I made that prediction Nov 05.
Kudos to you!
Most around here weren't to hip to the notion of Sony losing ground on any front this gen.November 2005 going once... Going twice ...
