PS3 Success = ? Userbase

[TheChefO]

Is the question something more like...

Sony have had two very strong devices in terms of units sold, managing n million in m years. If PS3 doesn't sell as strongly, what is the minimum number of units sold in m years that you think Sony can be happy with as maintaining a strong brand?

I can at least the point of such a question as that anyway, even if I wouldn't care to partake. Asking how many units makes PS3 a success, without defining success, and not caring about the other platforms, just confuses me!

Similar but not quite. The "brand" will be strong regardless. The PS3 platform itself is a whole other subject. Also guessing what "Sony" is thinking is impossible hence I limit it to ones personal opinion.

Sony have had two very strong devices in terms of units sold, managing n million in m years. If PS3 doesn't sell as strongly, what is the minimum number of units sold in m years that you would consider a success for the platform?

Thank you for clarifying my question though!

 

[NERO]

This "how many" question is simple on the surface, but what first must be guessed is the growth of the market. With the assumption that this cycle will be more competetive, it is safe to say that Sony will not have the same market share as the previous cycle. I guess that the market will grow (let say from the previous cycle's ~200 million) and that the parties other than Sony have wised up and will gain a piece of Sony's (absurd) previous cycle market share (~70%). Guessing that the market will reach 260 million consoles and the market shares even up a bit with Nintendo taking the lead (40%), and Sony dropping to 30% I will say that they sell less than 80 million units.

How did I come up with the above? Quiet day at work <applause> thank you thank you.

 

[infinity4]

i just don't think units sold is proportional to success. you could sell a console so unprofitably, say at extreme price, and sell a lot of units. that is not success is it?

 

[NERO]

i just don't think units sold is proportional to success. you could sell a console so unprofitably, say at extreme price, and sell a lot of units. that is not success is it?

Now listen here youngster...jk

You are correct. Success is definitely linked to market share. Market share share is in someway (that I am not educated in) linked to softwared licensing. Most corporations think of the now and future. It is unreasonable to think Sony will increase share so the way I look at it, they must not lose too much ground. Only way they will be happy by losing the market share race is if the market triples (which aint happening).

 

[Shifty Geezer]

i just don't think units sold is proportional to success. you could sell a console so unprofitably, say at extreme price, and sell a lot of units. that is not success is it?

That issue has been resolved. Success here is specific to the PS3 sales regards reduced sales versus previous PlayStations. Success == Given a reduced installed base compared to PS2, how many millions of PS3s is sufficient for Sony to feel they've 'done alright'? I guess that definition is assuming the other stuff is rather normalized. Assume decent software, the platform is profitable, etc. Trying to rationalize a required install base on economic grounds is a huge and impossible task. Although poll's know no limits...

 

[Arty]

context:
*81.1million ps2's by the end of the 5th year - fyi (same time frame) *roughly -xbd

PS3 should have atleast 60% marketshare.