PS3 Success = ? Userbase

[Nesh]

Judge the offspring by the parent....whatever the PS2 did, the PS3 needs to do similar. Anything lower is a market share loss. So if the PS2 held 70% marketshare, that's what the PS3 will need to do.

Ofcourse its a makret share loss but is it realistic to expect that a console franchise will always do as well and even do better?

So lets say that Sony falls to 50 marketshare would that mean fail?

I kind of doubt it though they will reach 50%. I expect less, but lets say 50% just for the sake of discussion

 

[RobertR1]

We're taking a marketshare loss as a given this gen Robert; wouldn't you say that's more or less a safe bet? It's simply that 'success' as a concept is being decoupled from marketshare.

Any marketshare loss can be attributed to various factors. So even if we get away from the percentages, to be a success at the level of the PS2, which I would say the intention is for the next gen to do as good or better than the previous gen.

If you say yes, then we have to conclude that the volume needs to be similar. The other explanation would be that Sony was willing to sacrifice PS3 volume and marketshare in hopes of displacing it with BR royalties.

So really, what is "success" to Sony? the ideal situation would be that the PS3 does the volume the PS2 did AND BR revenue comes rolling in. The balanced would be PS3 overall volume is lower than the PS2 but this loss is offset and more importantly, profits are increased with BR success in the mass market. The "oh oh" scenario would be where the PS3 volumes are well short of the PS2 AND BR fails to take off in the mass market.

Ofcourse there are a lot more scenarios but that PS3 volume in relation to BR success seems the most obvious to me.

 

[Crayon]

Judge the offspring by the parent....whatever the PS2 did, the PS3 needs to do similar. Anything lower is a market share loss. So if the PS2 held 70% marketshare, that's what the PS3 will need to do.

Thank you for so flawlessy demonstrating one dimensional thinking.

I can't vote in this poll, it makes no sense! I'm supposed to disregard everything else and shoot for an arbitrary number at half the device's shelf life and call it success?

If the PS3 loses the market majority to 360 but establishes Blu Ray for the next umpteen years is it a success?

If PS2 software continues to outsell all others until it's users move onto a 199 PS3 (against a 399 XB720) then is the PS3 a success? Or was the PS2 a success?

If the PS3 fails in every conceivable way, yet Sony still makes a PS4, then was PS3 a success?

No offense to those that are just having fun in this thread, but this poll is a fantasy horse-race thing. Nothing more.

 

[Natoma]

Judge the offspring by the parent....whatever the PS2 did, the PS3 needs to do similar. Anything lower is a market share loss. So if the PS2 held 70% marketshare, that's what the PS3 will need to do.

Maybe a comparison between console generations is in order?

NES sold ~60 million consoles and controlled ~90% of the market; ~67 million consoles sold in all.

SNES sold ~49 million consoles and controlled ~55% of the market; ~89 million consoles sold in all.

N64 sold ~33 million consoles and controlled ~21% of the market; ~160 million consoles sold in all. PS1 by comparison sold ~104 million consoles and controlled ~66% of the market.

Gamecube sold ~22 million consoles and controlled ~13% of the market; ~172 million consoles sold in all. PS2 by comparison sold ~116 million consoles and controlled ~67% of the market.

Wii has sold ~5 million consoles and controls ~31% of the market; ~16 million consoles sold in all. PS3 by comparison has sold ~2 million consoles and controls ~13% of the market. Microsoft has sold ~9 million consoles and controls ~56% of the market.

 

[Carl B]

So really, what is "success" to Sony? the ideal situation would be that the PS3 does the volume the PS2 did AND BR revenue comes rolling in. The balanced would be PS3 overall volume is lower than the PS2 but this loss is offset and more importantly, profits are increased with BR success in the mass market. The "oh oh" scenario would be where the PS3 volumes are well short of the PS2 AND BR fails to take off in the mass market.

Agreed.

 

[Natoma]

Another point of comparison btw. Nintendo DS has sold ~38 million and controls ~66% of the handheld market in comparison to the PSP.

Does this mean the DS is a failure in Nintendo's eyes compared with prior Gameboy iterations that controlled easily 90-95% of the handheld market? I think not.

The same can be applied to PS3.

 

[TheChefO]

Thank you for so flawlessy demonstrating one dimensional thinking.

I can't vote in this poll, it makes no sense! I'm supposed to disregard everything else and shoot for an arbitrary number at half the device's shelf life and call it success?

If the PS3 loses the market majority to 360 but establishes Blu Ray for the next umpteen years is it a success?

If PS2 software continues to outsell all others until it's users move onto a 199 PS3 (against a 399 XB720) then is the PS3 a success? Or was the PS2 a success?

If the PS3 fails in every conceivable way, yet Sony still makes a PS4, then was PS3 a success?

No offense to those that are just having fun in this thread, but this poll is a fantasy horse-race thing. Nothing more.

fyi - I suppose I was not clear in the OP but I'm not looking for what you imagine Sony would be happy with. What would you, as a poster on b3d, consider a success for ps3 unit-wise by 2010?

 

[Crayon]

That's what I'm sayin, Chef. What I consider a success has nothing to do with a number. And it has nothing to do with what Sony is happy with. And nothing to do with what anyone else expects.

What I consider a success is: PS2, NDS, NES, SNES, Genesis..... Things I bought and thought "Gee I sure played the hell outta that thing!"

Not success: N64, Lynx, Sega CD, GameBoy og/pocket/color, XBox, Neo Geo Pocket, Dreamcast....... Things where I said "Didn't spend to much time with that. It was horseshit."

Just picking a number makes no sense from any point of view.

 

[Ben-Nice]

That's what I'm sayin, Chef. What I consider a success has nothing to do with a number. And it has nothing to do with what Sony is happy with. And nothing to do with what anyone else expects.

What I consider a success is: PS2, NDS, NES, SNES, Genesis..... Things I bought and thought "Gee I sure played the hell outta that thing!"

Not success: N64, Lynx, Sega CD, GameBoy og/pocket/color, XBox, Neo Geo Pocket, Dreamcast....... Things where I said "Didn't spend to much time with that. It was horseshit."

Just picking a number makes no sense from any point of view.

Pretty much my thoughts on the matter and the only thing that would change that is if I had Sony stock.

 

[Skrying]

Not success: N64, Lynx, Sega CD, GameBoy og/pocket/color, XBox, Neo Geo Pocket, Dreamcast....... Things where I said "Didn't spend to much time with that. It was horseshit."

Gameboy "og"? Not sure what og stands for their. As well the Gameboy color sold around 50 million units, which is rather impressive. I also find it ironic how you consider your good and bad yet rather reserve comment on your look at the PS3, when you rather willingly go with your opinion on what you consider a success or not, unless of course you think Nintendo was disappointed with only 50 million units of the GB Color.

 

[rounin]

Gameboy "og"? Not sure what og stands for their. As well the Gameboy color sold around 50 million units, which is rather impressive. I also find it ironic how you consider your good and bad yet rather reserve comment on your look at the PS3, when you rather willingly go with your opinion on what you consider a success or not, unless of course you think Nintendo was disappointed with only 50 million units of the GB Color.

I find it ironic that you don't find it ironic that he didn't comment on the Wii or the Xbox360. I think there may be a relation !

 

[TheChefO]

That's what I'm sayin, Chef. What I consider a success has nothing to do with a number. And it has nothing to do with what Sony is happy with. And nothing to do with what anyone else expects.

What I consider a success is: PS2, NDS, NES, SNES, Genesis..... Things I bought and thought "Gee I sure played the hell outta that thing!"

Not success: N64, Lynx, Sega CD, GameBoy og/pocket/color, XBox, Neo Geo Pocket, Dreamcast....... Things where I said "Didn't spend to much time with that. It was horseshit."

Just picking a number makes no sense from any point of view.

I get your point and perhaps this poll isn't for you but let me see if I can shed light on the point of the poll:

Lets say Sony sells 6 million per year + 2million in 2006 = 26million units by 2010's end.

Is that a success?
Consider what implications this would have on the platform. This would put ps3 in gc/xbox1 territory.

10m/yr + 2m '06 = 42m

15m/yr + 2m '06 = 62m

20m/yr + 2m '06 = 82m (approx. ps2 numbers fyi)

 

[Skrying]

I find it ironic that you don't find it ironic that he didn't comment on the Wii or the Xbox360. I think there may be a relation !

He was pointing out old or "last gen" consoles in his post, which he rather clearly marked as success or not success by opinion alone. Therefore I made the logical extension that he could easily do the same for current generation consoles. I just find it a little odd how people side step questions in a "my opinion doesn't matter" kind of attitude and then turn around and list consoles by success/not with opinion. Frankly it would be rather easy already to go with such a way of success/not by opinion because for the most part consumers already have a good idea of the type of games that will be appearing on the consoles.

 

[Crayon]

I find it ironic that you don't find it ironic that he didn't comment on the Wii or the Xbox360. I think there may be a relation !

Ding.

og = origional gansta

So far the PS3 sucks ass! But the jury's still out. I'll let you know the final verdict in 5 years.

 

[Crayon]

I just find it a little odd how people side step questions in a "my opinion doesn't matter" kind of attitude and then turn around and list consoles by success/not with opinion.

How many PS3's would be necessary to call ps3 a success in your eyes by 2010?

... this poll is a fantasy horse-race thing. Nothing more.

No further comment.

 

[Skrying]

Straight up avoidance, at least you're honest.

 

[TheChefO]

So far the PS3 sucks ass!

Lucky for you Sony will pay you $1,200 for it. Rare item it seems...

 

[Crayon]

Straight up avoidance, at least you're honest.

At the risk of cluttering this otherwise stellar one-star thread, I would like to ask you what exactly I am avoiding?

 

[TheChefO]

Another point of comparison btw. Nintendo DS has sold ~38 million and controls ~66% of the handheld market in comparison to the PSP.

Does this mean the DS is a failure in Nintendo's eyes compared with prior Gameboy iterations that controlled easily 90-95% of the handheld market? I think not.

The same can be applied to PS3.

While I agree ps3 does not have to repeat ps2 sales to be a success, to compare it to the handheld space is a bit off. If MS and Sony had handhelds prior to the DS, PSP, then the argument would work. It's not like this is Nintendo or Microsoft's first home console eating into the established PS stronghold.

 

[Skrying]

At the risk of cluttering this otherwise stellar one-star thread, I would like to ask you what exactly I am avoiding?

What have you been asked to do in this thread? Oh yeah, say what YOU consider to be a number of PS3 units that would be consider a success. Of course you completely avoid this by saying numbers are useless. Its avoid, its clear avoidance.