2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll > 2007 Summer Ed.

[thatdude90210]

Saw this posted at gaf, another funny prediction from last year: Boston-based research firm Yankee Group predicted that by 2011, Nintendo would have sold a total of 11 million Wii's. Hah, Nintendo is going to blow pass that this year.

Edit: oops. That's for north america only. Wii is not going to pass 11 mil this year.

 

[TheChefO]

I thought about posting a new poll, but we are knocking on the door of 2010 right now so not much use in predicting only six months out.


It's interesting to look back on these threads and see how opinion trends changed over the 1st year and a half.

Many people in this edition were still predicting a strong comeback from ps3 to meet or exceed xb360 sales by 2010.

Others were expecting a slowdown of Wii.



Wii is indeed slowing a bit, but nothing a small price drop wouldn't fix.




Anyone have LTD sales data worldwide for these consoles?

edit:

Grabbed from the NPD thread:

PlayStation 3 7,914,096
Xbox 360 15,480,886
Wii 20,564,781

That's:

PS3 18%
XB2 35%
WII 47%

 

[Rangers]

I thought about posting a new poll, but we are knocking on the door of 2010 right now so not much use in predicting only six months out.


It's interesting to look back on these threads and see how opinion trends changed over the 1st year and a half.

Many people in this edition were still predicting a strong comeback from ps3 to meet or exceed xb360 sales by 2010.

Others were expecting a slowdown of Wii.



Wii is indeed slowing a bit, but nothing a small price drop wouldn't fix.




Anyone have LTD sales data worldwide for these consoles?

edit:

Grabbed from the NPD thread:

PlayStation 3 7,914,096
Xbox 360 15,480,886
Wii 20,564,781

That's:

PS3 18%
XB2 35%
WII 47%

Those are of course USA only sales (NPD).

Personally I like to use worldwide ship numbers for "world sales". I feel these are the most accurate world "sales" approximation we're ever going to get by a fair margin.

Anyways, as of March 31, the WW ship totals were 30.2m 360, 22.73 PS3, and I dont know Wii from memory, though you can look it up at VGchartz (news articles on financial reports) or other places.

It's interesting to me the most common what I would call "delusion", for lack of a better word, out there in relation to threads like these (there are threads like this on VGchartz), is there seems to be a hardcore small minority of people who seem to think the PS3 is still going to end up topping all consoles this gen (when even beating the 360 is looking increasingly unlikely). I suppose if it did happen, I would look pretty stupid, but it's bordering on impossible at this point.

 

[Lucid_Dreamer]

Forgive me, but wouldn't it only take about 1 year of the X360 not being on the market (at current average yearly sales) for the PS3 to pass the X360 in worldwide sales? Does it really seem almost impossible for the PS3 to catch the X360 from a theoretical view?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Forgive me, but wouldn't it only take about 1 year of the X360 not being on the market (at current average yearly sales) for the PS3 to pass the X360 in worldwide sales? Does it really seem almost impossible for the PS3 to catch the X360 from a theoretical view?

Well sure if both X360 and Wii were to suddenly disappear from existence it's possible that eventually the PS3 would surpass them...

But what are the chances MS is going to suddenly drop out of the console race after all they have invested in it?

At the very least you have MS projecting the X360 through 2015. Market conditions could always change that, of course.

And, yes, unless something drastically changes it's improbable that PS3 will surpass the X360, although obviously not impossible.

In fact, if Sony were in a better financial position, I'd say PS3 would have a good chance to pass X360 with some large cuts to PS3 pricing combined with some of the upcoming exclusive.

But the reality is that Sony right now can't afford to do any significantly large price cuts unless the PS3 slim is much cheaper to manufacture than anyone would guess.

Drop the PS3 to 249 and suddenly there's a possibility for large sales. Well, they'd also need some help from the economy to get more people to loosen their wallets.

As is, if the economy continues to worsen, it's possible we may see record low console sales this Holiday Season. And that's going to hurt Sony far more than it will hurt Nintendo or MS which both have large cash reserves.

Regards,
SB

 

[BRiT]

Does it really seem almost impossible for the PS3 to catch the X360 from a theoretical view?

Yes.

 

[TheChefO]

Those are of course USA only sales (NPD).

Personally I like to use worldwide ship numbers for "world sales"...

Doh!

I'll see if I can dig around and find WW sales data ... for some reason I assumed LTD was WW when it was obviously just NA.

stay tuned ...

 

[TheChefO]

According to VG charts:

51.2 wii
31.34 xb360
22.54 ps3


This changes the percentages a bit, but not much:

PS3 21%
XB2 30%
WII 49%

 

[thatdude90210]

Forgive me, but wouldn't it only take about 1 year of the X360 not being on the market (at current average yearly sales) for the PS3 to pass the X360 in worldwide sales? Does it really seem almost impossible for the PS3 to catch the X360 from a theoretical view?

Now we just have to figure out how to get a console that's more profitable in hardware, and selling more software, out of the market first.

 

[TheChefO]

...there seems to be a hardcore small minority of people who seem to think the PS3 is still going to end up topping all consoles this gen...

Speaking of that, I wonder what would happen if I produced a poll to the absolute end of the generation (2015) ... where would b3d predict sales to go ...

 

[obonicus]

Can we please not use vgchartz? US and Japan sales are based on actual tracker data, for Europe we just don't have the data outside of MS/Sony/Nintendo financial reports.