2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll > 2007 Summer Ed.

[oli2]

Four-digit weekly sales without a motive is disturbing - four-digit sales with price in mind and a clear roadmap where price reductions will follow another.

I don't get your point there : are you saying that one factor is that the people are anticipating a price drop ? If so, nothing has been announced yet ... AFAIK it could occur in 2008. Sony 's position will get more and more difficult, because there are (maybe) 6-9 more monthes left.

Also, as long as PS2 is still selling quite well (it is), I'm not too sure many publishers are all that worried yet - because it shows that there's still a market that's potentially interested in seeing successful games/franchises evolve on the PS3. Price is one factor - another factor is the very strong PS2. Less people feel inclined to 'upgrade' with a very much used and supported PS2 at the moment. The time will come though when the price [of the PS3] is right and the software is there. That time will come. How well it will do, we'll see about that when it gets there.

IMO, you are milking apples and pears there : there are tens of games in development for PS3. Whatever the sales are on PS2, if PS3's games bomb due to userbase, why should they maintain other developments on this platform ?

 

[TheChefO]

@ Phil

I see your point on Wii vs xb360 & ps3 wrt software development. But, this is still taking away from ps3 in comparison to ps2 as ps2 last gen had every genre and type covered. If a game was made it was coming to ps2 for the most part. With Wii in the mix, developers/publishers will have to consider, does it make better sense to put this game on Wii instead?

It's cheaper to dev for, it has a larger userbase which is not price prohibited, and they can get it done quicker.

That will affect software library. May not be AAA games, but for those that were used to the idea of having a console which has it all games wise, the console most likely to fit that bill this gen, is Wii for the reasons mentioned above. The console least likely to fit that bill, is ps3. Price not only limits how many buy it, but also who buys it. Young kids are a lot less likely to have a ps3 than a ps2. Casual gamers are a lot less likely to have a ps3 than ps2.

Wii doesn't have this limitation.

Yes, ps3 price will come down to mainstream eventually. But until then, expect a rough ride. Even after the price hits a certain level, if it happens too late, I don't expect mass market acceptance which will continue to limit games selection.

As I said, we've already heard of sku's being dropped if current sales levels continue on ps3.

Sony needs to be more aggressive now with their pricing to change this.

 

[Todd33]

As I said, we've already heard of sku's being dropped if current sales levels continue on ps3.
.

Let's be clear, you read this on a blog which sighted unnamed sources and is repeated again and again (that's how rumor becomes truth right?). I think this has been posted three times in this thread alone, pretty much the definition of FUD.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's cheaper to dev for.

Though I can agree with most of the reasoning of your post, I just want to pull you up on this one point. The only reason Wii is cheaper is due to a lower ceiling on what you can achieve, and thus a lower maximum expenditure. The same game with the same assets on any other console will likely cost pretty much the same. That is, a game with PS2 quality visuals on PS3 will cost a PS2-amount of money to develop, and if you're going to make a game for $1 million on Wii, you could spend that same million on the same artists and such and get the same results on a PS3. Only in HD, and with probably better lighting and shading as these things are much more straightforward.

This is so unless you have info that Nintendo's licensing fees are notably lower, which I'm not aware of.

 

[infinity4]

it's not just cost of development but also cost of 'learning curve' of architecture etc stuff that is also putting off many people right? just been wondering, because it makes it harder to break even.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

To get a Wii quality game, you don't need to delve into the SPEs, and can use general shader tech to drive the graphics. Look at what Genji achieved on jsut that. Tools are similar to PS2's only improved from them with simpler graphics tech (simpler to use than Wii's TEV too), so as long as you're not struggling with parallel processing in local stores, things shouldn't be any harder. XB360 is even easier if you stick to one core and DX9.

There's a case that on PS3 or XB360, the minimum cost to develop is elevated by the competition on the platform setting a minimum bar for graphics. Wii quality graphics aren't going to cut it when everything else is properly 'next-gen' with normal-mapped shiny-shine on everything. However I don't think that holds true looking at download titles. As a Wii title sells for less than an XB360 or PS3 title, a company could use the same Wii-level art direction and assets in principle, render at HD res with AA for nice IQ, add a few simple shader effects for a bit of mild pzazz, and sell it at a 'budget' price comparable to a Wii full-price game. eg. there's no reason Paper Mario would cost any more to create on PS3 or XB360, nor Mario Strikers, but they would look better even with the same basic assets.

 

[TheChefO]

Though I can agree with most of the reasoning of your post, I just want to pull you up on this one point. The only reason Wii is cheaper is due to a lower ceiling on what you can achieve, and thus a lower maximum expenditure. The same game with the same assets on any other console will likely cost pretty much the same. That is, a game with PS2 quality visuals on PS3 will cost a PS2-amount of money to develop, and if you're going to make a game for $1 million on Wii, you could spend that same million on the same artists and such and get the same results on a PS3. Only in HD, and with probably better lighting and shading as these things are much more straightforward.

This is so unless you have info that Nintendo's licensing fees are notably lower, which I'm not aware of.

While I agree with this post and train of thought, a Wii class game on ps3 wouldn't sell as well IMO as it would stick out like a sore thumb. Ps3 gamers are used to and expect ps3 level graphics. As they should. A machine with premium price should offer a premium experience. Wii on the other hand has a lower ceiling as you said. Thus, gamers don't expect ps3 level graphics and are used to the ps2-like images.

So, while devs could very well spend the same amount and produce roughly the same result on both machines, on ps3 the sales result would be lower IMO.

Add the userbase size difference and it should emphasize the point further.

 

[TheChefO]

Let's be clear, you read this on a blog which sighted unnamed sources and is repeated again and again (that's how rumor becomes truth right?). I think this has been posted three times in this thread alone, pretty much the definition of FUD.

Sure it was an anonymus source and as far as I know, nobody has come out and said this officially.

Thus at this point it must be considered a rumor.

But I wouldn't classify it as a rumor not based in reality. Fact is these companies are in the games business to make money. With sales as low as they have been, there will come a time when it fiscally doesn't make sense to invest the time and money to make/port a game as the return on the investment is too risky.

Not to say this trend couldn't turn around at some point, but as it is, I'm sure many are currently evaluating the financial aspects of development and where their resources are currently allocated.

They may decide that for the time being, Wii offers a much better ROI and until the machine's hype wears down (still can't find one), they will dedicate the majority of their resources to Wii development.

 

[Vic]

To get a Wii quality game, you don't need to delve into the SPEs, and can use general shader tech to drive the graphics. Look at what Genji achieved on jsut that. Tools are similar to PS2's only improved from them with simpler graphics tech (simpler to use than Wii's TEV too), so as long as you're not struggling with parallel processing in local stores, things shouldn't be any harder. XB360 is even easier if you stick to one core and DX9.

There's a case that on PS3 or XB360, the minimum cost to develop is elevated by the competition on the platform setting a minimum bar for graphics. Wii quality graphics aren't going to cut it when everything else is properly 'next-gen' with normal-mapped shiny-shine on everything. However I don't think that holds true looking at download titles. As a Wii title sells for less than an XB360 or PS3 title, a company could use the same Wii-level art direction and assets in principle, render at HD res with AA for nice IQ, add a few simple shader effects for a bit of mild pzazz, and sell it at a 'budget' price comparable to a Wii full-price game. eg. there's no reason Paper Mario would cost any more to create on PS3 or XB360, nor Mario Strikers, but they would look better even with the same basic assets.

Thing is, Wii titles cost £40 over here, which is basically the same price as 360 and PS3 games. IMO, when the PS3 is reduced to say £300/£325, Nintendo is going to have to cut the price of the Wii (which is £180). The reason I think this is that later this year, we'll start seeing some big games that put Wii titles in the shade, and people wont be prepared to pay so much on a machine that has a revolutionary control system, but is not a massive leap from the Gamecube tech-wise.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Glad to play the unpopular role again... This poll is a pretty good assesment of just how biased some posters actually are...

 

[thatdude90210]

With some discussion on shifting of resources, I guess this is a good place for this:


Square Enix CEO: 360, PS3 too complex

Talking up the DS and Wii, Yoichi Wada believes that the two next-gen consoles are 'over-engineered' and 'mismatched' to gamers' needs.

...

The Square Enix executive believes that the ground has shifted in the gaming industry. "[Whereas] in the old days,we could just focus on the PlayStation or the Game Boy," he said, "the environment has changed completely." A new breed of gamer has also emerged on the back of the release of Nintendo's marketing push to embrace nontraditional gamers--including women and older people--and this means, Wada says, "we have to make games for all kinds of people."

 

[Duck Dodgers]

Sony looking to "refine" cost of PlayStation 3, says Stringer


If this happens by Christmas, with a significant software flurry to boot, people will start spending and momentum will build.

They need to assume the cost of building in Bluray is free and price PS3 accordingly.
At the moment bluray is a ball and chain clanking very loudly.

 

[TheChefO]

Sony looking to "refine" cost of PlayStation 3, says Stringer


If this happens by Christmas, with a significant software flurry to boot, people will start spending and momentum will build.

They need to assume the cost of building in Bluray is free and price PS3 accordingly.
At the moment bluray is a ball and chain clanking very loudly.

If they can hit the 400-450 range this year, they have a real shot at staying in the race with xb360.

If not...

 

[Skrying]

If they can hit the 400-450 range this year, they have a real shot at staying in the race with xb360.

If not...

Disagree. If they have a shot at hitting $300 with the Xbox 360 then they have a chance. Why? Look at current Xbox 360 sales. The fact is that once the PS3 recieves are price drop it could cost more ($500~) or the same ($400~) as the Xbox 360. Are we expecting the PS3 to out sell the Xbox 360 at the same price point? Does the Sony brand still have that pull? I don't think so. One thing I would imagine history has shown us is that consumers are willing to give up a brand for a cheaper one who offers basically the same service, especially when both brands are mainstream. So, to be honest I never see the PS3 sales catching the Xbox 360 ones, the 360 will be cheaper for most of both systems life and unless I'm really shocked and the PS3 sales significantly better than the 360 at the same price then I see the gap continuing to grow.

 

[TheChefO]

So, to be honest I never see the PS3 sales catching the Xbox 360 ones...

That may be the case. But I think without hitting that pricepoint region of $400-450 this year, they will be out of the race.

As you said, xb360 will have a price advantage to lean on and the games library will seemingly remain xb360 favored.

There comes a point when momentum to acquire dev support and consumer mindshare is lost and regaining it is only possible in a weak market.

Keeping the ps3 in the mindframe of the consumer as an option is key and currently, they aren't.

A price drop of this magnitude this year will buy them some time.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

There comes a point when momentum to acquire dev support and consumer mindshare is lost and regaining it is only possible in a weak market.

I'm not sure that's entirely true. Traditionally it's been the case, but traditionally all consoles did was play games. Thus it was a choice between $n for games, or $n+100 for the more expensive console to do the same. This time it's somewhat different. You're not just comparing the same basic function and price. Function is pretty diverse, and as time progresses some of the things that make PS3 more expensive and less desirable now could turn into things that make it more desirable even at the higher pricepoint. eg. In 2 years time XB360 could have the better game support overall, but PS3 could be more desirable because it's got BRD playback included and HD sales have skyrocketed and end up selling more than XB360.

 

[TheChefO]

I'm not sure that's entirely true. Traditionally it's been the case, but traditionally all consoles did was play games. Thus it was a choice between $n for games, or $n+100 for the more expensive console to do the same. This time it's somewhat different. You're not just comparing the same basic function and price. Function is pretty diverse, and as time progresses some of the things that make PS3 more expensive and less desirable now could turn into things that make it more desirable even at the higher pricepoint. eg. In 2 years time XB360 could have the better game support overall, but PS3 could be more desirable because it's got BRD playback included and HD sales have skyrocketed and end up selling more than XB360.

Potentially.

I don't get the feeling this will be a deciding factor this for gen though.

Uptake of HD movies has been very slow up to this point.

 

[Todd33]

Uptake of HD movies has been very slow up to this point.

What timescale are you on, geologic? HD-DVD and Blu-ray have only been on the market for roughly a year now and players are just now getting sub $300. Content is also moving away from the typical B-movie crap (Crank, Aeon Flux) to big Hollywood releases (Pirates, Matrix, Casino Royal). Movie prices are also reaching <$20 during sales. I think HD adoption is faster than DVD.

 

[Arwin]

What timescale are you on, geologic? HD-DVD and Blu-ray have only been on the market for roughly a year now and players are just now getting sub $300. Content is also moving away from the typical B-movie crap (Crank, Aeon Flux) to big Hollywood releases (Pirates, Matrix, Casino Royal). Movie prices are also reaching <$20 during sales. I think HD adoption is faster than DVD.

Yes. And while the transition may be less obvious in terms of graphics and such, the transition is much easier. BluRay and HD-DVD players still play DVDs and often rather well, too (DVD upscaling in the PS3 output over HDMI is a good example). It makes a pretty big difference, even if only because hardware manufacturors can quite simply afford to abandon even producing DVD-only players.

Heck, just yesterday I found an old CD with some pictures of a holiday/wedding and I just slipped it into my PS3 and watched it with all the benefits of HD-TV and the nice slideshow options of the PS3. That kind of thing could never have happened across the VHS/LaserDisc/Video CD/DVD line.

And HD-TV is going to take over bigtime also. It is very obvious. Nobody now buys a regular TV anymore, and a lot of people are getting a new TV sooner than they'd normally 'cycle' their TV sets, because of the form factor, which is a huge thing that also takes away some previous limitations of TV size along with it - 32" is quickly becoming the 'second smallest' size after 26", with 37", 40", 50", and 60" following quickly. This will drive the need for HD content also.

3 years is a long, long time. I cannot predict that far ahead with any reliability. But I do see a big future for the PS3. It will come down in price fast, and it will get the content it needs. Above all, I have learnt that as a market leader, you have a huge advantage. While it is certainly possible to waste that advantage, it's not as easy as some people make it out to be, and it rarely happens in just one generation.

 

[TheChefO]

And HD-TV is going to take over bigtime also.

Agreed. But most are getting ~42" sets and most aren't getting 1080p.

The advantages of hd movies over dvd on such a small screen with such low res as ~768 (vs 480) isn't compelling enough for it to become mainstream anytime soon.

This is a bit offtopic for this forum, but again I don't think this will be a deciding factor in the console realm anytime soon.