2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll

[pakotlar]

OICAspork,
You can't use notions such as "150% of the market" even if the userbases overlap themselves. In the end the total for the next gen market will always be 100%, whether some consumers buy 2 consoles or not.

You can play around with percentages and say that 15% of X360 users also have a Wii, but in the end, if there are 25M X360, 25M Wii and 50M PS3 (to use easy numbers, not because i think that will really be the split), the percentages will always be 25%, 25% and 50%. Even though the 25M Wii users also have another console.

The total consoles sold would be 100M and that's 100%.

You might be able to play around with the percentages, and say that there are actually 75M total users with 100M total consoles sold, but to the markets that doesn't matter, as it's the number of units that count and in the end one guy with 2 consoles becomes effectively "two guys". Know what i mean?

No, because you are still assuming 1 customer per system. If the total market is 75m total users and 100M total consoles were sold, that means that some of the three competitors overlapped. So in this case Sony may have gotten 70% of the market, Wii may have gotten 30% of the market, and 360 may have gotten 30%. The figures are not exclusive, and there can be a greater than 100% sum spefically because of overlap. We are not sayign that there are more than 100% of 75M gamers, just that all together more than 75M systems were sold.

-------------MID-POST EDIT-----------------

Ok, I see what you are saying. So Sony did not capture 70% of all users, but 70% of all systems sold. I see where the confusion lay for me. So I propose that Wii will overlap sales alot more than GC did, and will grow as a result of its relative price point.

 

[sonyps35]

So the highest possible Sony percentage in the choices is running away with it here at B3D. Interesting.

I wonder if the highest possible Sony choice was 90% if that wouldn't run away with it too. Point being, you needed more choices Chef.

 

[hey69]

i believe the Wii will loose marketshare compared with gamecube .. but only tme will tell offcourse

 

[Magnum PI]

you say what you think, i would be rather be interested to know why you think so.

 

[Magnum PI]

So the highest possible Sony percentage in the choices is running away with it here at B3D. Interesting.

I wonder if the highest possible Sony choice was 90% if that wouldn't run away with it too. Point being, you needed more choices Chef.

numbers can only be somewhat arbitrary..

rather than use numbers the pool chould consist of twelve choices meaning the twelve possibilities of relative positionning:

sony, nintendo/ms
(meaning sony first, nintendo and ms equal second)

sony, ms, nintendo
sony, nintendo, ms
sony/nintendo, ms
sony/ms, nintendo
microsoft, sony / nintendo
microsoft, sony, nintendo
microsoft, nintendo, sony
microsoft/sony, nintendo
microsoft/nintendo, sony
nintendo,sony,ms
nintendo,sony/ms
nintendo,ms,sony
nintendo/ms,sony
nintendo/sony,ms

some will say some choices are improbable but if you filter the choices you introduce some bias.

 

[TheChefO]

numbers can only be somewhat arbitrary..

rather than use numbers the pool chould consist of twelve choices meaning the twelve possibilities of relative positionning:

sony, nintendo/ms
(meaning sony first, nintendo and ms equal second)

sony, ms, nintendo
sony, nintendo, ms
sony/nintendo, ms
sony/ms, nintendo
microsoft, sony / nintendo
microsoft, sony, nintendo
microsoft, nintendo, sony
microsoft/sony, nintendo
microsoft/nintendo, sony
nintendo,sony,ms
nintendo,sony/ms
nintendo,ms,sony
nintendo/ms,sony
nintendo/sony,ms

some will say some choices are improbable but if you filter the choices you introduce some bias.

For what purpose? To determine what everyone here will buy? That is a bit redundant as the majority here are early adopters. The point is to guess where the market will go.

As for more choices, I agree I would like more choices too but there are a maximum of 10 selections for a poll. I tried to be as balanced and realistic as possible with the potential outcome. Obviously I can't have everyone's exact choice but these give a pretty good range of realistic outcomes I think.

 

[pakotlar]

For what purpose? To determine what everyone here will buy? That is a bit redundant as the majority here are early adopters. The point is to guess where the market will go.

As for more choices, I agree I would like more choices too but there are a maximum of 10 selections for a poll. I tried to be as balanced and realistic as possible with the potential outcome. Obviously I can't have everyone's exact choice but these give a pretty good range of realistic outcomes I think.

I agree, I don't polls like this are intended to predict market breakdowns, as that is impossible, but to predict trends. This poll actually works really well to that point, and it looks like we finally have a regular contributor to the Console boards that isn't a ******. Bravo ChefO! My earlier criticism with the poll I retract, because of the london-boy's post. I guess homo's really do have something worthwile to say! (juuuust kidding man, that is a rub at the ban on homosexuality thread)

 

[TheChefO]

Thank you

This poll actually works really well to that point, and it looks like we finally have a regular contributor to the Console boards that isn't a ******. Bravo ChefO!

Thank you Pakotlar I'm glad you recognize my positive addition to this forum. Others (ahem) would dissagree but I try to keep a balanced view on things and spark good conversation.

 

[TheChefO]

Hey folks!

Been a while since I posted on here. Thought with the timing it would be a good idea to bring this back up and see where everything ended up!

Ms came in with roughly 39.6m WW sales or roughly 27%
Sony came in with roughly 34.3m WW sales or roughly 24%
And Nintendo came crashing the party with 70.7m or roughly 49%!

There were only 5 B3ders that predicted this market correctly over 5 years ago.

Unfortunately, I didn't make this poll public so it is tough to congratulate them, though I think it's safe to assume they are N fan-boys!


Given economic times and the unforeseen success of Nintendo's gamecube 1.5 w/ motion controls, I think it's safe to assume we have a few more years until the next gen officially kicks off.

We'll revisit this again at that time, but until then, Nintendo has earned the crown this gen!

Congrats!

 

[London Geezer]

Hey folks!

Been a while since I posted on here. Thought with the timing it would be a good idea to bring this back up and see where everything ended up!

Ms came in with roughly 39.6m WW sales or roughly 27%
Sony came in with roughly 34.3m WW sales or roughly 24%
And Nintendo came crashing the party with 70.7m or roughly 49%!

There were only 5 B3ders that predicted this market correctly over 5 years ago.

Unfortunately, I didn't make this poll public so it is tough to congratulate them, though I think it's safe to assume they are N fan-boys!


Given economic times and the unforeseen success of Nintendo's gamecube 1.5 w/ motion controls, I think it's safe to assume we have a few more years until the next gen officially kicks off.

We'll revisit this again at that time, but until then, Nintendo has earned the crown this gen!

Congrats!

Great idea to revive this thread!
It really tells a lot about how unexpected Nintendo's success was, if only 4% of the people that participated predicted today's market share more or less correctly. 96% did not expect it to end up like this. Pretty amazing from Nintendo's part.
Then again, back then Sony was riding high on the PS1-PS2 waves and not many people would have predicted they'd be in third place (even though Sony did, many years ago, they even had adverts for it! ). And Nintendo wasn't doing well at all at the time.
If those 5 or 6 B3Ders bought some stock in Nintendo 5 years ago, they'd be rich today!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

TheChefO kept pushing me for a prediction and I flatly refused saying such things were unpredictable. Stefan posted as much here. I guess there are two possible insights from this behaviour :

1) Mods know best
2) Mods are no fun!

 

[DuckThor Evil]

2) Mods are no fun!

This has a nice ring to it!

It seems I never voted on this either. Can I still vote

 

[Arwin]

Yeah, cool stuff. It looks like I didn't take part in this one (I'd have posted), although I'm sure I voted here and there (or posted that I had no idea in the latest of them), so I'm sure I've been wrong somewhere. - there won't have been many where I hadn't put up PS3, simply because I'm an autist and cant imagine anyone else would think differently from me.

From glancing the thread, PC999 at least can be identified as one of the winners, arguing that Nintendo had the important early price-point advantage.

EDIT: yep, there's a 2007 version that I did take part in:

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=41884&highlight=console+poll

It already has a lot more people voting the correct option there though!

 

[zed]

One thing about when this poll was envisaged, was 2010 was expected to be the start of the next gen, clearly now its gonna be 2012 at least

marketshare at end of 2009 (shipped)
xbox360 27.67%
ps3 24.10%
wii 48.23%

sony have there shipped numbers in a few days time, wii + xbox360 shipped less in the Q1-2010 than Q1-2009, then again sony are still having major supply issues. ps3-120gb is still sold out
http://www.amazon.com/PlayStation-3-120-GB/dp/B002I0J4VQ/ref=pd_ts_vg_14?ie=UTF8&s=videogames
ps3-250gb is available but not in great numbers in fact according here
http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B002I0H738/ref=dp_olp_0?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&condition=all
RRP price is $349, yet the cheapest available is $399.
How does that work? Are 250gb's also sold out thus amazon are directing ppl to other sellers?