2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll
- Thread starter TheChefO
- Start date
PS3
Edit.2: Yes we do, we know PS3 will include PS2 chip, like PS2 had a PS1 chip.
I'll just take your word on this I guess, unless you have a link?
Edit.2: How likely thats going to happen as Sony's own games will have free online play. Of course MMORPGs are a different matter. We'll see, did we ever get that AOL internet browser and downloadable content with the HDD on the PS2?
And your nearest competitor doesn't have built-in Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player, built-in wireless adaptor, a motion sensing controller, fully working backwards compatibility and free online play.
With HD-DVD and wireless adaptor add-ons the Xbox2 isn't that good of a deal anymore, is it? Actually it's still a great deal for someone who only wants a VIDEOGAME SYSTEM. I'd reckon the mainstream gamer wouldn't care about those things.
Edit.2: The price can be justified with the above mentioned details, and the wait can be justified with exclusive games. The price to you can be justified. The average consumer that only wants to play games will look at the graphics and see no difference between the PS3 and Xbox360 titles. With the substantial price difference which do you think is more likely to peak their interest? Nintendo and MS have more than enough exclusive games to combat anything Sony may have.
Xbox2
Edit.2: Resident Evil 5 is a big blus for Xbox2. Mistwalker's games could turn out to be good or mediocre or bad, and eventhough Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey would be great games it doesn't mean they'd automatically sell well.
The Xbox2 support in Japan is still far behind the amount of support Sony and Nintendo recieve there. Actually every major Japanese 3rd Party has games in development for 360. I don't see how Nintendo is better in this area. Of course Sony trumps them both.
+Halo, Forza, GTA (same day release), Fable, Ninja Gaiden, Rare's titles (Banjo, KI, PDZ, etc..)
Edit.2: I could be wrong, but IIRC Fable, Ninja Gaiden, Banjo and PDZ weren't actually top sellers like ie. Halo, GTA, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo, Formula One, Ratchet & Clank, and Mario & Zelda games.
You're wrong. Fable, Ninja Gaiden, Banjo, KI and PD are all million plus sellers and have sold just as much as Ratchet & Clank and Metal Gear Solid 3 games.
+Best Selection of Western RPGs (Oblivion, Bioware's games, etc...)
Edit.2: And the worst selection of Japanese RPGs.
What does that have to do with Best Selection of Western RPGs?
+Sweetspot where price is concerned with true Next-gen graphics.
Edit.2: Most people still don't own HDTV, cheaper Wii could offer them more or less equal eyecandy, that being said I think the graphics aren't that big of a deal for the majority of console players (those ~100 million who bought PS2 instead of GC/Xbox, and those who bought GC instead of Xbox). This analogy is flawed. There wasn't this big of a gap last gen as there is between Wii and 360/PS3. For those that want the cheapest true nextgen system (graphics), the 360 is the only way to go.
Edit.2: How's that a big plus? I predict the add-on will never be sold in large quantities.
It's a plus because it's optional and you're not forced into buying it which I'm sure more consumers will appreciate.
Edit.2: That could also be taken as there being too many games like that. Not to mention that most of those games will also be available for PC, and some for PS3. My point still stands. PS3 might be the be all, end all of JRPGs, but Xbox is widely known for the best shooting games (very popular in the west).
-Less diverse choice of games compared to what's expected from Sony.
Edit.2: Less diverse choice of games compared to Sony and Nintendo
MS has less diverse choice of games compared to Nintendo? lol Come on now, 3rd party games were practically nonexistent on my GC. You seem to want to put MS at the bottom of everything. And you completely missed my point. If Xbox becomes the leading player next-gen, expect the 'diversity' to shift toward the market leader. Which none of us know what'll really happen.
Edit.2: Yes we do, we know PS3 will include PS2 chip, like PS2 had a PS1 chip.
I'll just take your word on this I guess, unless you have a link?
Edit.2: How likely thats going to happen as Sony's own games will have free online play. Of course MMORPGs are a different matter. We'll see, did we ever get that AOL internet browser and downloadable content with the HDD on the PS2?
And your nearest competitor doesn't have built-in Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player, built-in wireless adaptor, a motion sensing controller, fully working backwards compatibility and free online play.
With HD-DVD and wireless adaptor add-ons the Xbox2 isn't that good of a deal anymore, is it? Actually it's still a great deal for someone who only wants a VIDEOGAME SYSTEM. I'd reckon the mainstream gamer wouldn't care about those things.
Edit.2: The price can be justified with the above mentioned details, and the wait can be justified with exclusive games. The price to you can be justified. The average consumer that only wants to play games will look at the graphics and see no difference between the PS3 and Xbox360 titles. With the substantial price difference which do you think is more likely to peak their interest? Nintendo and MS have more than enough exclusive games to combat anything Sony may have.
Xbox2
Edit.2: Resident Evil 5 is a big blus for Xbox2. Mistwalker's games could turn out to be good or mediocre or bad, and eventhough Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey would be great games it doesn't mean they'd automatically sell well.
The Xbox2 support in Japan is still far behind the amount of support Sony and Nintendo recieve there. Actually every major Japanese 3rd Party has games in development for 360. I don't see how Nintendo is better in this area. Of course Sony trumps them both.
+Halo, Forza, GTA (same day release), Fable, Ninja Gaiden, Rare's titles (Banjo, KI, PDZ, etc..)
Edit.2: I could be wrong, but IIRC Fable, Ninja Gaiden, Banjo and PDZ weren't actually top sellers like ie. Halo, GTA, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo, Formula One, Ratchet & Clank, and Mario & Zelda games.
You're wrong. Fable, Ninja Gaiden, Banjo, KI and PD are all million plus sellers and have sold just as much as Ratchet & Clank and Metal Gear Solid 3 games.
+Best Selection of Western RPGs (Oblivion, Bioware's games, etc...)
Edit.2: And the worst selection of Japanese RPGs.
What does that have to do with Best Selection of Western RPGs?
+Sweetspot where price is concerned with true Next-gen graphics.
Edit.2: Most people still don't own HDTV, cheaper Wii could offer them more or less equal eyecandy, that being said I think the graphics aren't that big of a deal for the majority of console players (those ~100 million who bought PS2 instead of GC/Xbox, and those who bought GC instead of Xbox). This analogy is flawed. There wasn't this big of a gap last gen as there is between Wii and 360/PS3. For those that want the cheapest true nextgen system (graphics), the 360 is the only way to go.
Edit.2: How's that a big plus? I predict the add-on will never be sold in large quantities.
It's a plus because it's optional and you're not forced into buying it which I'm sure more consumers will appreciate.
Edit.2: That could also be taken as there being too many games like that. Not to mention that most of those games will also be available for PC, and some for PS3. My point still stands. PS3 might be the be all, end all of JRPGs, but Xbox is widely known for the best shooting games (very popular in the west).
-Less diverse choice of games compared to what's expected from Sony.
Edit.2: Less diverse choice of games compared to Sony and Nintendo
MS has less diverse choice of games compared to Nintendo? lol Come on now, 3rd party games were practically nonexistent on my GC. You seem to want to put MS at the bottom of everything. And you completely missed my point. If Xbox becomes the leading player next-gen, expect the 'diversity' to shift toward the market leader. Which none of us know what'll really happen.
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Microsoft will always be at a big disadvantage in wordwide marketshare because they sell essentially zero in one of the big three markets, Japan. So it's hard too see them getting a better worldwide number than say, 40%, even if they are very succesful in EU/NA. 40% marketshare might mean 60% in the two markets were they are competitive, which would be a ridiculously strong performance to limit two powerful competitors (PS3, Wii) to 40% share between them.
Although one thing I found interesting last gen people dont talk about too much is how poorly NGC did in Japan. It was almost shunned. I think they shipped only about 6 million GC's life to date in Japan. USA was by far Nintendo's strongest market with NGC, which probably isn't common knowledge. In other words Americans liked GC far better than other markets worldwide
I think the best scenario for Microsoft migh be Wii taking down the PS3 in Japan, while MS tag teams them in EU/USA. This would eliminate some sort of PS3 safe base in Japan. Strategically speaking.
It will be fun to see what happens for sure. Truly a fascinating console cycle.
I see wii and PS3 at two points of the technology-price spectrum. 360 in the middle. Does that mean 360 isn't good enough at any one thing, or that it's the best middle of the road mix? That is the question.
Although one thing I found interesting last gen people dont talk about too much is how poorly NGC did in Japan. It was almost shunned. I think they shipped only about 6 million GC's life to date in Japan. USA was by far Nintendo's strongest market with NGC, which probably isn't common knowledge. In other words Americans liked GC far better than other markets worldwide
I think the best scenario for Microsoft migh be Wii taking down the PS3 in Japan, while MS tag teams them in EU/USA. This would eliminate some sort of PS3 safe base in Japan. Strategically speaking.
It will be fun to see what happens for sure. Truly a fascinating console cycle.
I see wii and PS3 at two points of the technology-price spectrum. 360 in the middle. Does that mean 360 isn't good enough at any one thing, or that it's the best middle of the road mix? That is the question.
.Melchiah.
Regular
I'm sorta against the percentages...
The 'market' I see as the buyers... so this isn't a clear case of 100% being the limit... I don't really know how much hardware will be sold, but I see Nintendo having a massive advantage of being the second system to many PS3s and XBox360s...
For instance (This is just out of the air, not deeply thought out):
Primary/Fist system:
39% Microsoft XBox 360
46% Sony PS3 (I really think that in Europe and America the 360 will be trading punches with the PS3, but in Japan... no chance)
15% Nintendo Wii
OUCH! Nintendo is hurting there... but then if...
18 of the 39% of those with a 360 as a primary system also have a Wii.... (maybe 4% also have a PS3)
and
22 of 46 of those who have a PS3 also have a Wii (and again 4 or 5% also have a XBox 360)
We end up with
45% XBox 360
50% PS3
and
55% for the Wii
for a total of 150% including dual and triple system homes... In the scenario provided in the home that roughly translates to the 33%, 33%, 33% choice... but I think working on a scale of 100% being the number of households that purchase any systems and therefore allowing the scale to climb over a hundred for multiple purchases... gives a more comprehensive idea of how things will pan out.
The 'market' I see as the buyers... so this isn't a clear case of 100% being the limit... I don't really know how much hardware will be sold, but I see Nintendo having a massive advantage of being the second system to many PS3s and XBox360s...
For instance (This is just out of the air, not deeply thought out):
Primary/Fist system:
39% Microsoft XBox 360
46% Sony PS3 (I really think that in Europe and America the 360 will be trading punches with the PS3, but in Japan... no chance)
15% Nintendo Wii
OUCH! Nintendo is hurting there... but then if...
18 of the 39% of those with a 360 as a primary system also have a Wii.... (maybe 4% also have a PS3)
and
22 of 46 of those who have a PS3 also have a Wii (and again 4 or 5% also have a XBox 360)
We end up with
45% XBox 360
50% PS3
and
55% for the Wii
for a total of 150% including dual and triple system homes... In the scenario provided in the home that roughly translates to the 33%, 33%, 33% choice... but I think working on a scale of 100% being the number of households that purchase any systems and therefore allowing the scale to climb over a hundred for multiple purchases... gives a more comprehensive idea of how things will pan out.
BenSkywalker
Regular
Except there is regularly- the gaming market. PS2 was the most expensive(tied for the most v the XB, always more then the NGC) option for the majority of the last generation and it decimated the competition. When the 360 launched it became the most expensive system and until they hit supply issues it was also the best selling system. 360 games have topped the chart numerous times since its' launch, also the most expensive options on the market. Oh yeah, currently it appears that HDTVs are going to outsell SDTVs this year. Not some far off future date, that is what is happening now. DVDs also outsell VHS and have for a long time, despite their being more expensive for most of the last ten years. Your assertion that the most expensive product in the electronics industry does not ever sell the best is simply not true in the least. Having a higher price point isn't going to help you out any- but it certainly does not mean that you will not be the best selling platform within reason(I am focusing on platforms as that is what consumers are buying here, it isn't like if you buy a Panny LCD you can't watch a lot of what a Bravia owner can- that IS what the console market is).
In terms of overall marketshare I think there are a few too many varriables to make a good call right now. As a 360 owner I can honestly say that I think MS has done a horrible job with their launch in almost every regard. They still lack an exclusive killer app, their library is very weak, they have serious issues with reliability and they failed to capitalize on their early launch window demand. With all of that said- you can say the same in every instance about the PS2. The one thing you can't say about the PS2 is that demand tapered off much sooner then expected in Europe and in the US and there never was any demand in Japan at all. If MS manages to hit 10Million before the PS3 launches it means little in the end despite what they may think. Sony outsold MS by more then that on a global basis each year of this generation since the XB launched. If they had hit ten million by now and were building a mass of mindshare in the more mainstream market then they could have had something going for them- that isn't happening and the tumbling sales numbers reflect that as of now(the PS2 is outselling it fairly easily despite ready availability of the 360 at this point). MS has already lost Japan- that isn't good considering they aren't even facing any competition yet. Their sales aren't very good in the US and Europe either- they were too supply limited and then they manage to ramp production right before the slowest period of the gaming year and they do so with NOTHING in the pipe to sell systems until we get into Q3/Q4 timeframe when the hype maching will be on for the Wii and PS3.
Sony has their own issues to deal with, the one I think matters the least is the launch price. Is everyone poor? I don't think so. Certainly there is an enormous percentage of the population that would never spend $600 on a console- but there are easily six million on the face of Earth that will- and largely do so with a smile on their face as they walk out of the store. After Sony gets past the initial launch, scales of economy should allow them to drop the price significantly without hurting their bottom line too much while the general consumer who wouldn't think of dropping $600 will see a great deal when the low end model hits the $300 price point. Sony certainly has to deal with a lot of issues this generation- but the launch price is certainly not close to being on their major points. How many people dropped more then $600 on ebay for a 360? It is a non issue- they are all going to sell out and there will be a lot of let down people looking for one, $600 in hand.
Sony has to deal with Nintendo in Japan- that is a serious threat. I think in a realistic fashion they are safe. The only potential N has for reclaiming the throne in their home market is if they can manage to land DQ as an exclusive- not likely. With the severe technical limitations and the tiny storage medium it isn't realistic to assume a next gen DQ game will manage to fit on a DVD9. It isn't like DQ pushes the boundaries on visuals very often(you could argue ever although DQ8 is IMO one of if not the best looking PS2 game), but the scope of the games aren't likely to be friendly to such a small medium.
Nin looks strongest in Japan, and they could end being huge in the mass market if they can pull off what they are trying to. I am not banking on it. Not that they won't do what they are saying they will on their end- the thing is most people who don't play games now aren't interested in them. Unlike luring customers back to theaters, there isn't a huge portion of the population who used to enjoy that past time and then quit- they are trying to pull an older demographic into an entirely new medium. I wish them the best of luck, and if they can do a fraction of what they imply it would be fantastic- but their goals this generation are far more difficult to achieve then either Sony's or MS's. In the US and Europe gamers are going to be turned off by the lack of third party games and the perception that Nin is for a milder audience- something that Nin is working very hard to reinforce with their focus on the Wii.
MS can turn things around if they can push out some killer apps this holiday season and capitalize on the lack of PS3s to fill demand- I see that as their last window of oppurtunity to truly exploit being very early.
Sony is still the dominant player in the industry- they need to focus on keeping the hype up and timing some killer apps for when they are likely to reach certain production/price points. If they fail in this, they make the others jobs a lot easier.
Nin needs to fire on every cylinder and tout their price advantage and back it up with some real titles. Current rumors indicating a Wii launch without Mario or Smash Bros does not bode well for them. Early word of mouth takes a long while to overcome- good or bad.
OICAspork,
You can't use notions such as "150% of the market" even if the userbases overlap themselves. In the end the total for the next gen market will always be 100%, whether some consumers buy 2 consoles or not.
You can play around with percentages and say that 15% of X360 users also have a Wii, but in the end, if there are 25M X360, 25M Wii and 50M PS3 (to use easy numbers, not because i think that will really be the split), the percentages will always be 25%, 25% and 50%. Even though the 25M Wii users also have another console.
The total consoles sold would be 100M and that's 100%.
You might be able to play around with the percentages, and say that there are actually 75M total users with 100M total consoles sold, but to the markets that doesn't matter, as it's the number of units that count and in the end one guy with 2 consoles becomes effectively "two guys". Know what i mean?
You can't use notions such as "150% of the market" even if the userbases overlap themselves. In the end the total for the next gen market will always be 100%, whether some consumers buy 2 consoles or not.
You can play around with percentages and say that 15% of X360 users also have a Wii, but in the end, if there are 25M X360, 25M Wii and 50M PS3 (to use easy numbers, not because i think that will really be the split), the percentages will always be 25%, 25% and 50%. Even though the 25M Wii users also have another console.
The total consoles sold would be 100M and that's 100%.
You might be able to play around with the percentages, and say that there are actually 75M total users with 100M total consoles sold, but to the markets that doesn't matter, as it's the number of units that count and in the end one guy with 2 consoles becomes effectively "two guys". Know what i mean?
pc999 said:
Oh don't get me wrong, that is probably going to be the case. I fully expect to see the Wii doing very well just for that reason. I was just trying to explain a thing or two about percentages and reporting.
london-boy said:Oh don't get me wrong, that is probably going to be the case. I fully expect to see the Wii doing very well just for that reason. I was just trying to explain a thing or two about percentages and reporting.
Yes, when we take every console as a diferent consumer things get confusing.