2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll > 2007 Summer Ed.
- Thread starter TheChefO
- Start date
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
I still don't understand how so many people believe the Wii will be a competitor in 2010.
How long do you really believe the Wii will continue on its current sales pace? Based on the poll results, it looks like a number of people believe the Wii will continue at this pace until 2010!
Also, the number of people proclaiming the PS3 dead is just astounding.
If the PS3 had the game library the 360 currently does, it would be flying off the shelves right now, even at its current price. Of course, it would saturate the market by the time the holidays came around and then require a price drop to open a new market.
I don't know who it was in this thread that said people 'hate the machine' but I find that notion outright silly.
Its too expensive, and even those who can afford it, find it has no games.
Ok.. this is about 2010, correct? For everybody who is projecting a laughably low market share for the PS3, do you care to share with us what you believe the PRICE of the PS3 will be at the start of 2010? And what sort of gaming library it will have at the start of 2010 compared to the Wii and 360?
How long do you really believe the Wii will continue on its current sales pace? Based on the poll results, it looks like a number of people believe the Wii will continue at this pace until 2010!
Also, the number of people proclaiming the PS3 dead is just astounding.
If the PS3 had the game library the 360 currently does, it would be flying off the shelves right now, even at its current price. Of course, it would saturate the market by the time the holidays came around and then require a price drop to open a new market.
I don't know who it was in this thread that said people 'hate the machine' but I find that notion outright silly.
Its too expensive, and even those who can afford it, find it has no games.
Ok.. this is about 2010, correct? For everybody who is projecting a laughably low market share for the PS3, do you care to share with us what you believe the PRICE of the PS3 will be at the start of 2010? And what sort of gaming library it will have at the start of 2010 compared to the Wii and 360?
N'Gai Croal quoted anonymous Western publisher execs saying that "If it keeps under 100k in the US for three straight months, we start dropping PS3 SKUs".
And the Japanese developers have already thrown most of their support behind DS and Wii.
How do you think the PS3 which is sinking deeper and deeper in its marketshare hole will magically pull itself out of it? You are placing too much faith in Sony's first-party efforts IMHO.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
I don't agree with this, the price is too high. I think it would sell pretty good with 399 price tag even without games. The price simply is too high for a console, despite the added functionality, people still perceive it as a box that plays games.
I agree with the other stuff you said though. I think Wii will be in a tough spot in 2010 when the other consoles have reduced in price, and eventually PS3 will also see nice sales numbers, I don't believe it will ever reach PS2 numbers, but good numbers anyway. Nintendo will probably also have a ace in their sleeves, if and when Wii starts to lose its steam.
Sometime in 2010 I think they will hit the $200 price point. Their game selection will depend largely on how well they sell up to this point.
Personally, I see this as the time when they can start to possibly catch some momentum as the machine becomes affordable and casual gamers can consider picking one up for the older first party games they've missed out on.
Thus: 22%
Prior to this, I see ps3 having:
2007 ~15%
2008 ~17%
2009 ~19%
2010 ~22%
xb360
2007 ~40%
2008 ~35%
2009 ~37%
2010 ~38%
Wii
2007 ~45%
2008 ~48%
2009 ~44%
2010 ~40%
I chose
30 - PS3
30 - X360
40 - Wii
I think the Wii will start to lose steam before 2010, but will have built a large lead. Sony will start slowly coming back in the fold, and steadily pick up some speed.
Anyone predicting what happened in the last year, a year ago would have been laughed at. No one ever expected the Wii to do so well, and for Sony to be selling five digits a month in the U.S. So I expect most people will be flat out wrong predicting 2.5 years ahead. At least that is my disclaimer if I am way off.
30 - PS3
30 - X360
40 - Wii
I think the Wii will start to lose steam before 2010, but will have built a large lead. Sony will start slowly coming back in the fold, and steadily pick up some speed.
Anyone predicting what happened in the last year, a year ago would have been laughed at. No one ever expected the Wii to do so well, and for Sony to be selling five digits a month in the U.S. So I expect most people will be flat out wrong predicting 2.5 years ahead. At least that is my disclaimer if I am way off.
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
Confused.. it would sell at 399 without games. But not at 599 even with a game library equal to the 360?
Again, I said it would sell at 599 until the holidays.. so for about 6 months. That's what it would take for the market of a 599 console to be saturated. Then, they'd have to drop the price point because releasing more software wouldn't help.
As far as developers dropping support, I find the idea absurd. Some games simply can't be developed on the Wii. So the only other choice is the 360, and the 360 doesn't sell outside of NA. Anybody wanting an audio/visual experience outside of NA will have to develop for the PS3.
Also, the PS3 is still new and developers are still having difficulty porting from the 360. That should get exponentially easier. Which means PS3 games won't be released months after the 360 versions, they be released simultaneously.
I do believe the PS3 needs to reduce its price fairly soon. But it needs software exclusive IPs first to move the 'expensive' units, then it needs its 3rd party ports to come online at the same time as their competitors, then it can focus on dropping price points in order to reach a larger market.
I think our conclusions are the same, even if the specifics are different. By the end of the lifespans of the consoles, (at or near the end of 2010), I see it 40/40/20. The Wii is being adopted rapidly, but there are still more 360s in households than Wiis and PS3s combined, and the Wii still hasn't sold more than the gamecube.
So what does that mean? Nothing. It means only that it is selling more rapidly. That's it.
As far as what Nintendo will do when the Wii starts to lose steam, I'm sure they have a plan, because I'm sure they had one when the launched the Wii because they weren't counting on this rapid rate of adoption. But, I doubt whatever their plan will be that it could be considered a 'Wii' for this discussion.
(If they launch Wii x2 in 2009 that is essentially the same thing, but now its a cheap, backwards compatible, HD model.. it doesn't count as Wii marketshare.)
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Yep, that's how I see it.
I think 599 tag is only suitable to move the launch units and that's it. It is however problematic to lower the price very soon after the launch...
That's an exaggeration. X360 doesn't sell in Japan basically, but it's having atleast almost decent numbers in Europe and in some other places too. And with strong lineup it could start selling better any day now :smile:
I don't think even the big hitters like GT5 and FF13 will move the units nearly as fast as a 200$ price cut. It's too damn expensive. However by the time those too games come out, it just might have had the necessary price cuts to finally start making some impact. I have said it before, but I'll say it again... 2008 is the year PS3 will finally get some lift under its wings, with lower price and solid game library we should expect it to do quite well.
my guess is that sony seems to be letting off 360 and wii gain more market shares as they set their pace on their own work they are likely to release in 2008, whilst hoping the difference does not get wide enough to lose software deals. the price doesn't seem right, library doesn't seem right, online i am not sure, nothing seems right to sell ps3s at the moment. probably they think devs will keep their support for ps3 because of its success with ps2, and with exclusives i heard of, it seems they are trying to compete with microsoft with their own exclusives along with loyal japanese exclusives.
microsoft in my opinion, have nice range of games, there are lots of 1st 2nd party exclusives like SCE, but in my opinion their main weapon is "cheap price as HD system" and Halo 3. i may be underestimating exclusives like Gears of War, Forza Motorsport 2, PGR4, Mass Effect and so on, but their catalogue to me does not seem dispersed enough for mainstream target (as well as geographical wise) they were talking about in recent '199USD' interview.
microsoft in my opinion, have nice range of games, there are lots of 1st 2nd party exclusives like SCE, but in my opinion their main weapon is "cheap price as HD system" and Halo 3. i may be underestimating exclusives like Gears of War, Forza Motorsport 2, PGR4, Mass Effect and so on, but their catalogue to me does not seem dispersed enough for mainstream target (as well as geographical wise) they were talking about in recent '199USD' interview.
From what I understand, at least one developer/publisher said if ps3 saw sub six figure sales in 3 consecutive months in the US, they would start pulling skus.
It's understandable, as xbox1 slipped to such a low level only one month and was followed the next month with a 33% price cut.
iceberg187
Regular
Why does everybody say this? Looking at the last software chart, games like Shadowrun went up from the following week and Forza debuted at #1. I don't buy that excuse.
Where's the option to vote:
PS3 30%, X360 20%, Wii 50%?
I've said it before, but I don't think the marketshare prediction among all 3 players is very important, nor very relevant. Nintendo's has distanced themselves with the Wii too much to compare them evenely.
Developers aren't looking at it that way either - if anything: they see two platforms competing directly with eachother (X360/PS3) and a third platform that is offering something completely new, for a different price targeting a different market. Wii can sell for all anyone cares 200 million consoles - it won't matter. The market will just get that much bigger...
assen:
Which japanese developers? Care to name a few?
PS3 30%, X360 20%, Wii 50%?
I've said it before, but I don't think the marketshare prediction among all 3 players is very important, nor very relevant. Nintendo's has distanced themselves with the Wii too much to compare them evenely.
Developers aren't looking at it that way either - if anything: they see two platforms competing directly with eachother (X360/PS3) and a third platform that is offering something completely new, for a different price targeting a different market. Wii can sell for all anyone cares 200 million consoles - it won't matter. The market will just get that much bigger...
assen:
assen said:
Which japanese developers? Care to name a few?
What developers see is one established platform they develop for, another which still has to prove itself and at most deserves a quick hacky port, and a third one which is rapidly gaining share and must be rapidly addressed in order not to miss the bandwagon.
Maybe you haven't seen Japanese sales charts recently? These are not Western titles, and not all of them are Nintendo 1st parties.
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No. What developers see is the launch of a console with a situation that's not much different than what any console (sans Wii) goes through in the initial stages. Consoles don't start with 20+ million userbases. It's a situation not all that different to PS2 when it launched in Japan back in 2000.
Publishers support a platform that has a market to support their software and make money. If DS sells 500 million and Wii 200 million wouldn't make a market of 5 to potentially 70+ millions disappear. Unless you want to argue that the immense success of the GameBoy/DS stopped publishers supporting consoles with more expensive software at a quarter of a userbase....
assen said:
Backtracking already? You claimed that Japanese developers have already thrown most of their support behind DS and Wii - what have Japanese sales charts got to with that? What's your point and how does that prove your claim?
Japanese developers and publishers make lots of games games for the DS and Wii (as evidenced by the release lists), and they sell well (as evidenced by the sales charts). From there on, it's on a positive feedback loop. With PS3, the feedback loop is also positive, but in the opposite direction. Sony has a chance of kicking the loop into another state by releasing a ton of first-party excellent titles. I think they have a window of maybe one year starting from now; if it doesn't work, their console is dead for all practical purposes; even if they succeed, the most they will get is a chance to fight for the second place.
I get that they are making lots of games for DS and Wii - I also get that that's fairly evident by looking at the sale charts. I however don't get your claim that that is evidence to Japanese developers have already thrown most of their support behind DS and Wii. You are implying here that resources are shift from PS3 to the DS/Wii - I would like to see where you are drawing this connection
As I already said above - publishers support platforms if there is a market for that. If Wii has ten times as many units out to the PS3 doesn't make the PS3 platform any less viable, especially if Wii is opening a new market. If Wii is drastically expanding the market, that's good news - that would also mean that developers are bound to increase in size and grow because more money can be made. That however doesn't mean that resources are shifting - or that planned software for PS3 is canned and heading to Wii.
D
Deleted member 7537
Guest
2007:
S 20 / M 35 / N 45
2008
S 25 / M 38 / N 37
2009
S 35 / M 32 / N 33
2010
S 40 / M 27 / N 33
S 20 / M 35 / N 45
2008
S 25 / M 38 / N 37
2009
S 35 / M 32 / N 33
2010
S 40 / M 27 / N 33
You are implying here that resources are shift from PS3 to the DS/Wii - I would like to see where you are drawing this connection
No I'm not. These resources never were allocated to the PS3 in the first place - they were dedicated to PS2 games in the last generation, and then they were sitting on the fence, waiting to see where the wind blows. I think most of them are thrown into DS, less into Wii development. Of course, I might be wrong - but this is the general feeling coming from Japan.
It's not the relative size of the PS3 install base that is/will be turning off publishers, it's the absolute size. Four-digit weekly sales in Japan isn't something that will make Japanese-market only developers' heads turn into Sony's direction.
Honestly, I find it very hard to understand the logic behind the popular opinion that Sony will somehow "muscle through" a couple of bad years and come on top in the end. Bad market share leads to no games / crappy ports leads to bad sales leads to bad market share. Was there ever a market leader who came up from the back at the end of a generation? IMHO, PS3 either turns around in the next 12 months, or is done.
Same popular opinion when the N64 was going to come out. Nintendo was gonna win (they didn't). It is very hard to accept the leader not leading anymore. Of course in this case it really is Sony's fault for pricing the system too high. I mean the PS2 was released with 0 great games yet was sold out for a really long time. It just didn't happen this way and the only discrepancy seems to be price.
So in other words, your absolute statement and claim just downgraded into a humble opinion. I guess I can live with that, since it's just speculation on your part. Do you have anything to back up your feeling or are you simply basing this on thin air? From where I'm sitting, most PS2/Xbox (console) devoted resources are still pretty much on target and split evenly between X360 and PS3 (notice me not mentioning Wii) - that includes most big publishers such as Konami, Capcom, Namco, SquareEnix. Wii of course is supported as well, but it seems with other kinds of software (besides the sports genre) and that mainly from resources that were already devoted to GameCube development.
Now unless you can name some specific examples, you aren't really adding much for constructive discussion...
Four-digit weekly sales without a motive is disturbing - four-digit sales with price in mind and a clear roadmap where price reductions will follow another. Also, as long as PS2 is still selling quite well (it is), I'm not too sure many publishers are all that worried yet - because it shows that there's still a market that's potentially interested in seeing successful games/franchises evolve on the PS3. Price is one factor - another factor is the very strong PS2. Less people feel inclined to 'upgrade' with a very much used and supported PS2 at the moment. The time will come though when the price [of the PS3] is right and the software is there. That time will come. How well it will do, we'll see about that when it gets there.
No one is saying Sony will end up on top in the end - I'm merely disagreeing with your belief that resources are shifting as a result of Wii's performance. I'm saying, even if Wii ends up selling over 100 million units, a PS3 or a X360 with a 20+ million in Japan will attract its fair share of support. That's like arguing that consoles are doomed simply because there's a handheld market which is so much more lucrative. If Wii expands the market, developers will grow to support the market and to make money.
