PS3 Success = ? Userbase

[TheChefO]

How many PS3's would be necessary to call ps3 a success in your eyes by end of 2010?
Disregard Profit/loss, games, quality of games, etc.




2011 is possibly the time frame we might see ps4 or xb720 and may prove to be a more forgiving timeframe, however I am of the opinion next-nextgen will start in 2010. WiiHD will kick start it!


context:
*81.1million ps2's by the end of the 5th year - fyi (same time frame) *roughly -xbd

 

[Carl B]

Chef, why do you pick the weirdest numbers?

By the end of 2010? That's like four years total.

Ok, well for some context I guess, PS2 had sold ~63 million by September '03.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Define success

To me the threshold is around 40million. Anything under 40mill would indicate a major mistake by Sony, and you could call it unsuccesful, though it would still be a perfectly profitable product.

Edit - I'm speaking overall, not by 2010.

 

[PiNkY]

30-40 Mio over 4 years would be nice (& I'd suppose being profitable for them).

 

[TheChefO]

Chef, why do you pick the weirdest numbers?

By the end of 2010? That's like four years total.

Ok, well for some context I guess, PS2 had sold ~63 million by September '03.

lol - good point but hey, they were first last gen! This gen ...

Thanks for the context though. Actually shouldn't it be ps2 sales to 2004??

fyi 81.1million by the end of the 5th year (2004)

 

[Carl B]

Thanks for the context though. Actually shouldn't it be ps2 sales to 2004??

Well, the problem is the launches were at different times; for PS3 it was end-of-'06 beginning of '07 for Europe, and for PS2, beginning of '00 in Japan, end of '00 in US and Europe. It's hard to judge which timespan to use as such for PS2, so I just chose through late '03. Early '04 may be a batter choice though to account for the US and Euro delays, and if you were to do that then 71 million is the target. But again, they don't line up evenly.

fyi 81.1million by the end of the 5th year (2004)

This poll is essentially for four years though.

 

[TheChefO]

Well, the problem is the launches were at different times; for PS3 it was end-of-'06 beginning of '07 for Europe, and for PS2, beginning of '00 in Japan, end of '00 in US and Europe. It's hard to judge which timespan to use as such for PS2, so I just chose through late '03. Early '04 may be a batter choice though to account for the US and Euro delays, and if you were to do that then 71 million is the target. But again, they don't line up evenly.



This poll is essentially for four years though.

Sorta - the last two months of the year generally count for 6 months sales wise.

ps2 sold in 2000 in spring for Japan and the following fall in the US. In all, the first year amounted to ~6million sales for them where ps3 amounted to 1.5-2million for its first year.

difference of roughly 4 million

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

How many PS3's would be necessary to call ps3 a success in your eyes.

Anything that makes sony earn a fair amount of profit. They might sell 40million and make a loss ala xbox1 or they might sell 20million and make a profit ala gamecube. Though thats from a sony pov.

For me, the ps3 will be a succes when it has (lots of) good games. I dont care how many consoles are sold as long as it has good games on it.

 

[22psi]

From Sony's prespective based on unit numbers alone, I would imagine 70-80m in the same time frame would equal success. Selling much less hardware wouldn't really seen as a "success". Or maybe netting the about the same profit as the PS2 did in the same time frame could be considered a success.

 

[Paul_G]

I think we all know that a PS2 like run is practically impossible now but still, if I were to say 71 million was the amount sold last time, and i want to set my figure at the low end of the range i voted for, say 60 million, then i would consider much below that a failure. I don't expect it to wipe the floor with Wii and 360, but to get within 10 million of last time around would be a success to me

 

[Skrying]

Argh? Yeah, the OP post was rather hard to follow for my brain. 80-90 million units for a lifetime would be my "success" and I expect Sony to try to drag PS3 into 2012, if by 2010 I would say 60-70.

 

[TheChefO]

Argh? Yeah, the OP post was rather hard to follow for my brain. 80-90 million units for a lifetime would be my "success" and I expect Sony to try to drag PS3 into 2012, if by 2010 I would say 60-70.

Hopefully I made it a bit clearer

 

[Nesh]

Itys hard ti tell. Some people are expecting PS3 to sell as much as the extraordinary PS2 sales to consider it a success. PS3 can be considered succesful with less sales. Just not as succesful as the PS2.

Depends how someone views it. If it sells less you can say that it failed at being the success PS2 was which doesnt necessarilly imply "unsuccesful"

Then we have to take into consideration the size of the market and market share and how much of it the competitors gained comparatively

I dont think we can answer with sale estimations alone

 

[Natoma]

Given the current pricing structure I'd be absolutely amazed if they sold 20-30 million consoles in 4 years. In order to get to 40-50 million, they really need to reduce the price, and get some really great exclusives.

PS2 had the benefit of having two rather weak competitors in the Xbox and Gamecube, relatively. The same cannot be said of the PS3.

 

[Carl B]

Given the current pricing structure I'd be absolutely amazed if they sold 20-30 million consoles in 4 years. In order to get to 40-50 million, they really need to reduce the price, and get some really great exclusives.

I assume that everyone voting understands that price drops and exclusives are to be factored in; unless there are those that think four years from now PS3 will still cost the same amount.

 

[Natoma]

I'm considering a price drop within the 2007 year for them to hit 40-50 million. If they don't drop the price for another year or two (think xbox 360), then 20-30 million would be more realistic imo.

 

[Carl B]

I see where you're coming from Notoma, but note that you're supposed to be indicating what you would term as "success" for the PS3, rather than taking a stab at where you think it will be. Now, it can be hard to seperate the two when evaluating the situation, but I just have to think that in your 20-30 million scenario, you're not viewing that as a success but rather a likelihood. But, you might be... I don't want to be presumptious!

 

[RobertR1]

Judge the offspring by the parent....whatever the PS2 did, the PS3 needs to do similar. Anything lower is a market share loss. So if the PS2 held 70% marketshare, that's what the PS3 will need to do.

 

[Natoma]

I see where you're coming from Notoma, but note that you're supposed to be indicating what you would term as "success" for the PS3, rather than taking a stab at where you think it will be. Now, it can be hard to seperate the two when evaluating the situation, but I just have to think that in your 20-30 million scenario, you're not viewing that as a success but rather a likelihood. But, you might be... I don't want to be presumptious!

At those high price points I would consider that a stunning success. But if you want me to talk about what I think would be a success in hypothetical terms for PS3 from Sony's perspective, I honestly don't know. Whatever Sony feels comfortable with.

 

[Carl B]

Judge the offspring by the parent....whatever the PS2 did, the PS3 needs to do similar. Anything lower is a market share loss. So if the PS2 held 70% marketshare, that's what the PS3 will need to do.

We're taking a marketshare loss as a given this gen Robert; wouldn't you say that's more or less a safe bet? It's simply that 'success' as a concept is being decoupled from marketshare. What numbers do you think Sony will be happy with? I personally think they will be happy with a lot less than 70% marketshare so long as other objectives are achieved.

At those high price points I would consider that a stunning success. But if you want me to talk about what I think would be a success in hypothetical terms for PS3 from Sony's perspective, I honestly don't know. Whatever Sony feels comfortable with.

Ok then, well said.