Predicting XB1 and PS4 sales *spawn

[Deleted member 11852]

Let's say they shipped 850k in Dec, but there are many people still waiting for units to purchase, you don't think they can sell 400k-600k in Jan if they ship another 850k?.

This is my point; nobody knows how much immediate demand there is. Demand could be almost at it's supply apex right now and the next boatload of boxes may sate it. Looking back at the Xbox One situation here in the UK, it was sold out everywhere then it was in stock mostly everywhere. It happened in a few days.

I am frankly astonished by the global PS4 sales numbers so far, it's just hard to believe there is much more pent up demand given the price (there's still a recession on) and the lack of 'must have' games.

 

[Phil]

This might be a minor point, but it still isn't too late technically for either console to be "dreamcasted". If memory serves me correct, Dreamcast had 'record-sales' during its launch window in NA and continued with strong sales throughout. It in the end reached world wide sales of not so insignificant 10.6 million (4.28million in NA) accoarding to Wikipedia. Technically, we won't know if Xbox One (or PS4 or Wii U) could be dreamcasted until another few months, if not a year from now - though that's probably quite unlikely, if not next to impossible.

Then again, the term "dreamcasted" was probably more used as tongue in cheek to beginn with to constitute "failure" - and failure is a broad subjective term. Failed in market sense? Failed in securing first place in its home territory? Failed to the point that console production is ceased, similar like Dreamcast (though there were also other reasons for that failure)?

If anything, I think many people are anticipating January and February sales report to see if and how these new consoles will continue to sell after they outstrip demand. Will sales break in (like Wii U) or will they continue like we are used to from PS360 to form a strong marketshare? That is the question IMO.

 

[-tkf-]

Xbox One sold more than PS4 in December NPD.

that is the only current "fact" about sales to date in NA.

And you would be hard pressed to find anyone with a real interest in Technology and Consoles to find that bad news.

But from what we know, and i accept we are guessing, it's a victory on paper, if you have a 25cl of coke and you pour that into a cup it would be strange to find more than 25cl in that cup. So we are/were measuring production capacity and in the case of US region supply. And from what we are guessing at Sony had the smaller bottle and the market was thirsty for more

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Will you people stop using bloody delicious food and drink analogies! This is not helping my new years diet!

 

[Tap In]

By ~5% and due to its competitor being supplied contained. I see you have nothing real to add to the discussion though.

less than 24 hours ago we received factual evidence of sales. After a month of many people (even in this thread) projecting that x1 could not outsell ps4 in NA even with supply constraints we now have the goal post moving rather than admission.

 

[DrJay24]

less than 24 hours ago we received factual evidence of sales. After a month of many people (even in this thread) projecting that x1 could not outsell ps4 in NA even with supply constraints we now have the goal post moving rather than admission.

I'm not sure what you are talking about (revisionist history?). All we had before were projections that both would do near a million, but as too the supply of the PS4 being in question the PS4 sales were always in doubt. The actual data supports those projections very well. I'm not sure why it is so important who "won", especially then the numbers are so close. The more interesting is the near future, supply and new markets. MS doesn't gain anything for selling a few more units for one month, especially when they are in their strongest market and still losing LTD.

 

[Tap In]

I'm not sure what you are talking about (revisionist history?). All we had before were projections that both would do near a million, but as too the supply of the PS4 being in question the PS4 sales were always in doubt. The actual data supports those projections very well. I'm not sure why it is so important who "won", especially then the numbers are so close. The more interesting is the near future, supply and new markets. MS doesn't gain anything for selling a few more units for one month, especially when they are in their strongest market and still losing LTD.

oh I agree with some of that yes.

I am merely pointing out that after hearing a month of this nonsense that the machine with the "useless Kinect sensor" had "little to no demand" compared to the "more desirable" and cheaper albeit, supplied constrained one, it would be nice to hear some people say they were mistaken about the actual demand for the X1 console even with Kinect and higher price. 908,000 is pretty danged good.

Instead we get spin spin and play down ...supply...blah blah blah...

Yes perhaps I am being petty but this thread was mostly a bunch of speculative nonsense, presented as fact for the past month and I am pointing out how they were wrong... so, sue me.

 

[dobwal]

Will you people stop using bloody delicious food and drink analogies! This is not helping my new years diet!

Well, can I now assume that the "D" in your name stands for "Diet" instead of "Delicious". LOL.

 

[AlphaWolf]

And you would be hard pressed to find anyone with a real interest in Technology and Consoles to find that bad news.

But from what we know, and i accept we are guessing, it's a victory on paper, if you have a 25cl of coke and you pour that into a cup it would be strange to find more than 25cl in that cup. So we are/were measuring production capacity and in the case of US region supply. And from what we are guessing at Sony had the smaller bottle and the market was thirsty for more

As was said before no one knows where that demand ends. It's possible that at XB1 levels of supply they may still not reached those numbers. A lot of people won't queue up to buy a product or buy from amazon or whatever else. We won't get a fix on where sales are headed until supply is fairly ready for both products in all regions (I've yet to see either in a retailer in my area, so locally demand is greater than supply for both).

 

[AlphaWolf]

I'm not sure where you live, but I don't know of any region in NA where XB1s are hard to find. in Silicon Valley you can find one in every BB and Target, I just checked two zip codes with the in-store pickup function and not one was out of stock for a 25 mile radius. Neither has PS4s (in fact they won't even let you search, it is disabled).

Congratulations your search encompassed 1/2 of 1/10th of a percent of the area of the US.

 

[Xalion]

Congratulations your search encompassed 1/2 of 1/10th of a percent of the area of the US.

Since you are the one who claimed that there is a lack of availability and that the fact that they are available online through every major online retailer doesn't matter, I think it is your responsibility to prove there are areas in the US where there aren't supply.

Since you seem to know where they are, there is simple proof you can supply. Give us a zip code so we can type it into Target or Best Buy's store finder. We can then check the area for availability. Just so you know, I was curious so checked the top 10 metro areas and they all had units in stock at local Best Buys. Not ship to - in stock. As of the last census, that covers about 26% of the US population. I also checked the 10 smaller metro areas at random and they all had units in stock at Best Buy.

So I think it is probably your turn to provide one of these areas where people can't get an XBox one. No offense, but until you can do so I think it is reasonable to state that anyone in the US who wants to can buy an XBox One.

 

[babybumb]

The whole point for Microsoft only launching in 13 countries was to stop Sony in US/UK. Instead they got outsold by 400k+ combined even though Sony launched in 40 more countries.

I dont see them being happy with this at all. I think they wanted Xbox One to do what Xbox 360 did normally in december: 1.5-2M. I think shipped numbers will show MS had around 3.5-3.8 million stock for the quarter and they only sold 3 million to customers

 

[mrcorbo]

The whole point for Microsoft only launching in 13 countries was to stop Sony in US/UK. Instead they got outsold in both by 400k+ combined even though Sony launched in 40 more countries.

I dont see them being happy with this at all. I think they wanted to do Xbox 360 december numbers like at least 1.5M

Says who?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

They already won short term, they have beat MS in every territory and sold out completely while XB1 sales have stalled...

That's an awkward choice of words. 'Stalled' == stopped. XB1 sales may have slowed, but they are not stalled.

I'll also add in general terms to the discussion that demand is satisfied when resupply matches sales, so presence of stock on shelves shouldn't be interpreted as supply having exceeded demand. At some point, supply should settle down to exactly what demand requires. For the past 6 years, supply for PS360 has nicely matched demand, with stock freely available for both machines, and neither being dead. That's even true of uber-selling products like iThings. I can get an iThing in a zillion different stores, in stock and available, on the shelves waiting to be bought. That's no indicator that demand for iThing has ground to a halt, nor that supply exceeds demand.

The only real take-home point from current evidence is that PS4 is selling faster and demand is higher relative to resupply than XB1, and of course the numbers that PS4 has sold more.

 

[DrJay24]

Congratulations your search encompassed 1/2 of 1/10th of a percent of the area of the US.

I've provided data, you?

I remember Silicon Valley being the place where the XB1 was sold out of for the longest time, so my search has merit. So what is your zip code? I can put random cities into the store searches all day long, but it might take a long time to hit a random city with shortage.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Says who?

Logic?
It's my opinion too.

Why else would they market their console so much on US+UK-centric features (sports+tv+tv remote) and release the console on just a handfull of countries (ok two hands), risking having unsold stock everywhere?

 

[mrcorbo]

Logic?
It's my opinion too.

Why else would they market their console so much on US+UK-centric features (sports+tv+tv remote) and release the console on just a handfull of countries (ok two hands), risking having unsold stock everywhere?

You seriously can't think of any other explanation, given the circumstances under which this launch took place? Specifically the period between E3 week and launch. Not one other explanation for a limited launch than the need to send more stock to those territories?

And the features you mention were still in the box when they still intended to launch more widely. Keep in mind their list of launch territories shrunk down from what it was initially, which also in happened post-E3. Weird coincidence, huh? You'd almost think they had to alter their launch plans because of something or some things that changed around that time.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I've provided data, you?

I remember Silicon Valley being the place where the XB1 was sold out of for the longest time, so my search has merit. So what is your zip code? I can put random cities into the store searches all day long, but it might take a long time to hit a random city with shortage.

I'm in Canada, none of the major retailers have stock of the xb1 locally or on their .ca portals. Best Buy, futureshop, walmart or target. Not sure about walmarts online they might have a bundle.

 

[Rangers]

Since you seem to know where they are, there is simple proof you can supply. Give us a zip code so we can type it into Target or Best Buy's store finder. We can then check the area for availability.

Sorry, no go. Any seasoned ebay scalper (me) would tell you online store inventory systems are notoriously wonky (they often show stock when there is none or vice versa).

Personally I'm not debating that X1 has essentially full stock for a while though. If you can go to Amazon and order it anytime, that's freely available in my book.

Brick and Mortar is always a tougher thing to gauge, since each of us can only visit a few stores, personally I haven't checked any in a while.

I did see XBO's available at my Wal Mart the morning after BF though, which is ridiculous. Probably pretty much the hardest day of the year to not sell out.

 

[RudeCurve]

More data to measure demand, via ebay.

XB1 new: $459
PS4 new: $460

XB1 used: $430
PS4 used: $464

Edit: Amazon

XB1 new: $500 (MSRP, in-stock)
PS4 new: $495 (3rd party)

XB1 used: $439
PS4 used: $496

You keep bringing up this bogus metric that has no relevance to total sales.